Ladera Ranch projections

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
IR2 you are the diet coke of evil...just one calorie



quick question: October is the month where banks are supposed to show "due diligence" before they go after someone for foreclosure.



What step will this effect? Is this only for the people that are already A's and the banks are waiting an extra 30's days before they make it a B? or is this before they file a NOD and make it a P on the map?



Is it a specfic step or will this effect all steps and make the all numbers signifigantly smaller for the month of October? (before they shoot back up in November)
 
I had an older aunt who lived in Ladera from '03 to '05 after a divorce, and she hated it. She said her neighbors were trying desperately to live beyond their means and seemed to be a bit disingenous with who they were and what they had achieved in life. It was just creepy, because everybody tried to act cooler and more affluent than they really were. It's funny for a while, and we used to laugh at them when I'd visit, but then it just gets old. She moved into an older house near the beach in San Clemente and loves it.



Then there's a coworker of mine. He moved to Ladera about four years ago with his wife to settle down and have kids. They bought the typical three story shoebox with six feet of yard on each side and lots of stairs. The place looks like Pottery Barn exploded inside. And the garage has the obligatory Mercedes C Class sedans leased from Fletcher Jones to keep up with the neighbors, who also all drive leased BMW and Mercedes and Lexus vehicles. This couple are nice people, but they couldn't be more stereotypically Laderaites living beyond their means and leasing their way to a hip profile on the freeway. Judging by the pay scale at work, I would put them both at around a 65 grand a year salary, for a combined 130K salary.



<strong>And then tragedy struck!</strong>



This summer their ARM reset much higher. They are just in panic mode now, so much so that he's talking about it at work to some of us he's known for a few years! I would never talk about my finances at work, but this guy is just in a frenzy. They are trying to break the leases on the C Class sedans, but Fletcher Jones isn't cooperating without big fees. The guy brings in his own lunch every day now, and never goes to Starbucks anymore with us. Their mortgage was with WaMu, so you can imagine what their recent communication has been like with the bank. There have already been a couple of foreclosures near them, and it seems a dozen of their neighbors have been for sale for months at far less than they paid for their shoebox in '04.



If you saw this young couple pull up to the Shops at Mission Viejo in their slick C Class and their Facconable outfits bought on the Nordstrom card, they would just look so hip and happy and upper-middle class perfect. But the reality is that they are imploding on themselves and they have no idea what to do. It was all a sham, and all leased or bought on flimsy credit.



Your mileage in Ladera Ranch may vary.
 
[quote author="MightyAlweg" date=1225461463]I had an older aunt who lived in Ladera from '03 to '05 after a divorce, and she hated it. She said her neighbors were trying desperately to live beyond their means and seemed to be a bit disingenous with who they were and what they had achieved in life. It was just creepy, because everybody tried to act cooler and more affluent than they really were. It's funny for a while, and we used to laugh at them when I'd visit, but then it just gets old. She moved into an older house near the beach in San Clemente and loves it.



Then there's a coworker of mine. He moved to Ladera about four years ago with his wife to settle down and have kids. They bought the typical three story shoebox with six feet of yard on each side and lots of stairs. The place looks like Pottery Barn exploded inside. And the garage has the obligatory Mercedes C Class sedans leased from Fletcher Jones to keep up with the neighbors, who also all drive leased BMW and Mercedes and Lexus vehicles. This couple are nice people, but they couldn't be more stereotypically Laderaites living beyond their means and leasing their way to a hip profile on the freeway. Judging by the pay scale at work, I would put them both at around a 65 grand a year salary, for a combined 130K salary.



<strong>And then tragedy struck!</strong>



This summer their ARM reset much higher. They are just in panic mode now, so much so that he's talking about it at work to some of us he's known for a few years! I would never talk about my finances at work, but this guy is just in a frenzy. They are trying to break the leases on the C Class sedans, but Fletcher Jones isn't cooperating without big fees. The guy brings in his own lunch every day now, and never goes to Starbucks anymore with us. Their mortgage was with WaMu, so you can imagine what their recent communication has been like with the bank. There have already been a couple of foreclosures near them, and it seems a dozen of their neighbors have been for sale for months at far less than they paid for their shoebox in '04.



If you saw this young couple pull up to the Shops at Mission Viejo in their slick C Class and their Facconable outfits bought on the Nordstrom card, they would just look so hip and happy and upper-middle class perfect. But the reality is that they are imploding on themselves and they have no idea what to do. It was all a sham, and all leased or bought on flimsy credit.



Your mileage in Ladera Ranch may vary.</blockquote>


Good insight, thanks! I come for the landscaping, value per sq ft. and proximity to the Ortega (family in Temecula). Lot's of options there and only going to get better. I can deal with the folks trying to appear wealthier than they are, doesn't really bother me too much however can see how some people might be REALLY, REALLY turned off by that. People are people, whatever insecurities or snobbish attitudes they choose to display are their concern and not mine.
 
Yes, there are those Laderians who put on a huge front . New leased cars, designer everything, kids in private schools, but no money in their savings accounts. However, like a said, this varies by neighborhood. A good indicator what you are getting yourself into is to look at the cars in the neighborhood. Our neighborhood (seven years old) is still full of vans, older suburbans, and "gasp" . . . sedans that families drive. No Mercedes SUVs, Escalades, etc . . . O.k. , we do have a fraction of the neighbors who pretend they have more than they have, but the rest is cool. I think the village most affected by the keeping-up-with-the-jonses-syndrome are Avendale, Terramor, and Covenant Hills. A few neighborhoods in Flintridge also have the nose-in-the-air attitude. I always have to laugh when I hear some guy bragging on the new car he bought his wife, or how he gets her this and that, bla, bla, bla . . . . It's just sad that this is the only thing they have to be proud of. And it's all bought on their credit card. I'll drive my car until it dies. 150,000 miles and counting.



When you look behind the "rich" Ladera fassade you see sad, lonely lives filled with stuff that is supposed to mean something. Someone I know recently separated from their spouse and they were so excited because the kids got brand new furnished rooms and a Wii at their spouses new place. And I am thinking, what the heck, those kids want their parents together and to live in one home, not all the stuff!! But for some it will always be about the things they own. When all is said and done, they won't take it with them to wherever they are going in the afterlife. Or have you every seen a hearse pulling a U-HAUL?
 
I live in Ladera and I would guess that in my neighborhood, about half of the people fit the description you provide. They have leveraged up over the last 5 years, pulled hundreds of thousands of dollars out of their homes and spent it on who knows what. I would imagine most of them are on option arms that are going to have some re-set coming in the next couple of years.



The other half are living within their means, have a mortgage they can afford and are regularly paying down their debt (at least through amortization) and will be able to stay in their house as long as they want.



It is such a dichotomy between the two types and it is generally pretty easy to tell which houses fall into which camps.
 
How do the mello roos work on homes that have had big price drops? They don't rise as a property gains in value is it the same when it drops? If this is true then the total tax rate in Covenant Hills could start approaching 2.5-3% of the new purchase price. Does anybody have any numbers on what the actual mello roos is for properties in Covenant Hills?
 
This is a real killer!



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Ladera-Ranch/17-Elissa-Ln-92694/home/5961968">17 Elissa Ln</a>



5,700 sq. ft for under $1M.



Not sure why someone took all the pictures at night? This home is tempting...very tempting.
 
[quote author="Chotsky" date=1225670384]How do the mello roos work on homes that have had big price drops? They don't rise as a property gains in value is it the same when it drops? <span style="color: red;"><strong>Correct.</strong></span> If this is true then the total tax rate in Covenant Hills could start approaching 2.5-3% of the new purchase price. Does anybody have any numbers on what the actual mello roos is for properties in Covenant Hills? <span style="color: red;"><strong>Yes. See below.</strong></span> </blockquote>


Here you are Chotsky -



1. Go to this page:

<a href="http://tax.ocgov.com/tcweb/search_page.asp">http://tax.ocgov.com/tcweb/search_page.asp</a>

2. Type in the address that you're interested in and click on [find]

3. Click on the blue Parcel Number [xxx-xxx-xx] on the next page.

4. Click to see [View Original Bill] or [Click Here for Details] if bill is unavailable.



Mello Roos and Bond assessments should be line items in the bottom half of the bill.



Good luck,

-IR2
 
[quote author="Roo" date=1227577182]This is a real killer!



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Ladera-Ranch/17-Elissa-Ln-92694/home/5961968">17 Elissa Ln</a>



5,700 sq. ft for under $1M.



Not sure why someone took all the pictures at night? This home is tempting...very tempting.</blockquote>


So, being a bit of a bull this might suprise everyone...but I have a feeling <em>all</em> of Ladera might end up at this price point.
 
[quote author="25w100k+" date=1227583431][quote author="Roo" date=1227577182]This is a real killer!



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Ladera-Ranch/17-Elissa-Ln-92694/home/5961968">17 Elissa Ln</a>



5,700 sq. ft for under $1M.



Not sure why someone took all the pictures at night? This home is tempting...very tempting.</blockquote>


So, being a bit of a bull this might suprise everyone...but I have a feeling <em>all</em> of Ladera might end up at this price point.</blockquote>


Yeah, let's hope Irvine moves down as well.
 
[quote author="tenmagnet" date=1227584031]

Yeah, let's hope Irvine moves down as well.</blockquote>
Still too many cash heavy foreign buyers in Irvine.*



*I'm going to keep milking this theory until the cow is dry.
 
[quote author="Roo" date=1227577182]This is a real killer!



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Ladera-Ranch/17-Elissa-Ln-92694/home/5961968">17 Elissa Ln</a>



5,700 sq. ft for under $1M.



Not sure why someone took all the pictures at night? This home is tempting...very tempting.</blockquote>


In my NOD/NOT inbox this morning:



<pre class="code">29. LADERA RANCH - 17 ELISSA LN, 92694

APN 741-242-25

Trustor xxxxxxxxxxxxx

Bene SEE TRUSTEE C/O QUALITY LOAN SERVICE CORP - 2141 5TH AV, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101 Phone 714-730-2727

Trustee QUALITY LOAN SERVICE CORP -2141 5TH AVE, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101 Phone 714-730-2727

Trustee# CA-08-184617-ED , LN 3011

Sale 12/3/2008 12:00M - 700 W CIVIC CENTER DR, SANTA ANA, CA (COURT HOUSE) Minimum Bid 1,843,355

LoanAmt 1,680,000

DlnqtDate 9/1/2007

DlnqtAmt 24,907

AsOf 12/7/2007

RecDate 11/14/2008

NTS Inst# 532854

LoanDate 10/16/2006

Loan# 697441</pre>



I'm hoping that by now many/most of you are familiar with the short sale pattern that consistently develops...



Good luck,

-IR2
 
[quote author="IrvineRealtor" date=1227584961][quote author="Roo" date=1227577182]This is a real killer!



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Ladera-Ranch/17-Elissa-Ln-92694/home/5961968">17 Elissa Ln</a>



5,700 sq. ft for under $1M.



Not sure why someone took all the pictures at night? This home is tempting...very tempting.</blockquote>


In my NOD/NOT inbox this morning:



<pre class="code">29. LADERA RANCH - 17 ELISSA LN, 92694

APN 741-242-25

Trustor xxxxxxxxxxxxx

Bene SEE TRUSTEE C/O QUALITY LOAN SERVICE CORP - 2141 5TH AV, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101 Phone 714-730-2727

Trustee QUALITY LOAN SERVICE CORP -2141 5TH AVE, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101 Phone 714-730-2727

Trustee# CA-08-184617-ED , LN 3011

Sale 12/3/2008 12:00M - 700 W CIVIC CENTER DR, SANTA ANA, CA (COURT HOUSE) Minimum Bid 1,843,355

LoanAmt 1,680,000

DlnqtDate 9/1/2007

DlnqtAmt 24,907

AsOf 12/7/2007

RecDate 11/14/2008

NTS Inst# 532854

LoanDate 10/16/2006

Loan# 697441</pre>



I'm hoping that by now many/most of you are familiar with the short sale pattern that consistently develops...



Good luck,

-IR2</blockquote>






What offer would you make on this house?
 
[quote author="tenmagnet" date=1227587096]It states minimum bid of $1.8M, is that right?</blockquote>


IIRC, The Deuce has trying to teach us that the "asking" price for a short sale home may not be any type of real asking price. It may be a "fishing" price for the listing agent with the intention of getting bids so that the listing agent can then take the bids to the lender and show how much the property may actually sell for. The listing agent, with approval from the lender, then relists the property with a "realistic" asking price.
 
[quote author="tenmagnet" date=1227584031][quote author="25w100k+" date=1227583431][quote author="Roo" date=1227577182]This is a real killer!



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Ladera-Ranch/17-Elissa-Ln-92694/home/5961968">17 Elissa Ln</a>



5,700 sq. ft for under $1M.



Not sure why someone took all the pictures at night? This home is tempting...very tempting.</blockquote>


So, being a bit of a bull this might suprise everyone...but I have a feeling <em>all</em> of Ladera might end up at this price point.</blockquote>


Yeah, let's hope Irvine moves down as well.</blockquote>




I'm not all that hopefully. My plan is to pick up a good deal on a nice condo in irvine (i'm looking for 260-280 a square ft), stay there for 4 or 5 years. If my career keeps me in OC, then i'll just pick up half an acre in ladera for almost nothing.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1227588835][quote author="tenmagnet" date=1227587096]It states minimum bid of $1.8M, is that right?</blockquote>


IIRC, The Deuce has trying to teach us that the "asking" price for a short sale home may not be any type of real asking price. It may be a "fishing" price for the listing agent with the intention of getting bids so that the listing agent can then take the bids to the lender and show how much the property may actually sell for. The listing agent, with approval from the lender, then relists the property with a "realistic" asking price.</blockquote>


It states minimum bid at the court house is $1.8M, is this a "fishing" price?
 
[quote author="tenmagnet" date=1227592210][quote author="awgee" date=1227588835][quote author="tenmagnet" date=1227587096]It states minimum bid of $1.8M, is that right?</blockquote>


IIRC, The Deuce has trying to teach us that the "asking" price for a short sale home may not be any type of real asking price. It may be a "fishing" price for the listing agent with the intention of getting bids so that the listing agent can then take the bids to the lender and show how much the property may actually sell for. The listing agent, with approval from the lender, then relists the property with a "realistic" asking price.</blockquote>


It states minimum bid at the court house is $1.8M, is this a "fishing" price?</blockquote>


No, sorry if I was not more clear. The "fishing" price is the $995,000 in the redfin ad.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1227592784][quote author="tenmagnet" date=1227592210][quote author="awgee" date=1227588835][quote author="tenmagnet" date=1227587096]It states minimum bid of $1.8M, is that right?</blockquote>


IIRC, The Deuce has trying to teach us that the "asking" price for a short sale home may not be any type of real asking price. It may be a "fishing" price for the listing agent with the intention of getting bids so that the listing agent can then take the bids to the lender and show how much the property may actually sell for. The listing agent, with approval from the lender, then relists the property with a "realistic" asking price.</blockquote>


It states minimum bid at the court house is $1.8M, is this a "fishing" price?</blockquote>


No, sorry if I was not more clear. The "fishing" price is the $995,000 in the redfin ad.</blockquote>


Okay, no problem, I understand what you're saying.

That's a very good point.

What about the courthouse auction price, is that accurate?
 
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