It is important to design products for what buyers could afford. (DO NOT TAKE POLL: POLL CLOSED)

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
Thanks for all your informative posts and observations, bkshopr.

As far as the sample above having higher income than is observed through the Census data, I have no doubt that it is true. All my acquaintances who wish to move to Irvine and buy a house make significantly more than the median income. If they didn't, they would set their sights more realistically on a lower or value priced area. Be that as it may, we don't make enough to support the currently exorbitant prices demanded from new housing developments and similarly deluded resale home sellers, especially when the rental market is cheaper than owning. Maybe another 15-20% decline is where I'm comfortable, and a drop beyond would be gravy...so tell that to your housing developer buddies.

As far as cookie cutter homes in Irvine, I happen not to mind as long as that cookie cutter cuts well, which I find to be rare. I have no idea who architected or designed the houses in Irvine in the new developments, but the vast majority suck in terms of layout. Can I get a garage that opens into the kitchen, with a walk-in pantry so I can put my 50lb bags of rice and stinky case of fish sauce and assorted dry goods? Can I get a gas range that has a self-cleaning hood against a wall instead of a stovetop in the center of the island where a hood or vent aren't really practical? Can the stove and sink not face each other since you can't wash dishes and cook at the same time? Can I not see the stairway when I enter the house? Can I get a bedroom and full bath downstairs? Can I get a place to put shoes near the front door where guests can put their shoes instead of all over the foyer? Can my master bedroom bath be less than 1/2 the size of the total bedroom...what a waste of space! Can I have the master bath sinks adjacent to one another, versus being split by a giant bath tub...who will volunteer to use the sink at the far end of the bathroom? Can I have a giant family room for my karaoke and other entertainment equipment?

Did I miss anything, bkshopr?
 
skek said:
BK, correct me if I'm wrong, but my experience suggests to me that the builders aren't so much interested in what consumers want, but rather, how little will they accept at the various price points.

I've seen some builders (not in Irvine, necessarily) in the press talk about moving projects to more attached, high-density product now that mortgage standards are tightening and the economy is weakening. To me, that misses the point. The problem wasn't that people wanted but couldn't afford a $500k condo before, the problem was that condos should have never cost $500k to begin with. If the builders think that replacing planned $750k SFRs with more $500k condos is going to get them out of the current housing slump, I think they are mistaken. They need to find a way to deliver the $750k SFRs for $500k, because that's what they once cost, and that's what they should cost again.
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Builders in most metro areas now such as Silicon Valley, Bay Area, and OC are keen in delivering the need of the consumers. Those who think that by building an attached product worth $500k will address the price point of the consumers will only bury themselves in the hole they dug in the first place. Many lending institutions are not approving construction loans on risky attached projects because of poor absorption. I am working with a design team at this moment to invent a $400k detached product in the Silicon Valley to address the very same issue you just pointed out. Consumers do not want attached high density products.

Banks do not like them. I do not like them. Consumers do like like them. You do not like them. It was the greed of the developers and the fault of the consumers for accepting it. The fate of Jamboree corridor is yet to be unveiled.
 
recovering_homeowner said:
Thanks for all your informative posts and observations, bkshopr.

As far as the sample above having higher income than is observed through the Census data, I have no doubt that it is true. All my acquaintances who wish to move to Irvine and buy a house make significantly more than the median income. If they didn't, they would set their sights more realistically on a lower or value priced area. Be that as it may, we don't make enough to support the currently exorbitant prices demanded from new housing developments and similarly deluded resale home sellers, especially when the rental market is cheaper than owning. Maybe another 15-20% decline is where I'm comfortable, and a drop beyond would be gravy...so tell that to your housing developer buddies.

As far as cookie cutter homes in Irvine, I happen not to mind as long as that cookie cutter cuts well, which I find to be rare. I have no idea who architected or designed the houses in Irvine in the new developments, but the vast majority suck in terms of layout. Can I get a garage that opens into the kitchen, with a walk-in pantry so I can put my 50lb bags of rice and stinky case of fish sauce and assorted dry goods? Can I get a gas range that has a self-cleaning hood against a wall instead of a stovetop in the center of the island where a hood or vent aren't really practical? Can the stove and sink not face each other since you can't wash dishes and cook at the same time? Can I not see the stairway when I enter the house? Can I get a bedroom and full bath downstairs? Can I get a place to put shoes near the front door where guests can put their shoes instead of all over the foyer? Can my master bedroom bath be less than 1/2 the size of the total bedroom...what a waste of space! Can I have the master bath sinks adjacent to one another, versus being split by a giant bath tub...who will volunteer to use the sink at the far end of the bathroom? Can I have a giant family room for my karaoke and other entertainment equipment?

Did I miss anything, bkshopr?
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Yes, Make sure the shelf is tall enough to clear your tall oyster sauce bottle? Caucasian architects can't design houses for Asians and especially Chinese. You have just described a home designed by Robert Hidey with his infamous Hidey bath having two sinks flanking the vampire floating tub wasting space like the a Caesar Palace suite. There are too many rules and lifestyle of Asians that the westerners don't have a clue about. This builder industry really need a racist bkshopr to help them design a house that address the Asian criteria.
 
bkshopr said:
There are too many rules and lifestyle of Asians that the westerners don't have a clue about. This builder industry really need a racist bkshopr to help them design a house that address the Asian criteria.
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sam_self-love_0704.gif
 
bkshopr said:
The income sample represented here is by far the best gauge from realistic home shoppers. I am not surprised at all to see the median is much higher than the Irvine average. The much lower median income in Irvine provided by the census I believed is incorrect due to the income datas from Asian population. Asians are known to have cash and have little documented income and having approx. 35% of Asians could really lower the realistic average.

The samples provided here will certainly excite the developers.
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BK, are you saying they are "retired" living on their cash holdings and like retired Americans have low incomes even though they may have a couple million in the bank or are you saying something more jaded that they are basically cheating on their taxes and incomes by running cash operations?

It's a bitter point that it seems to be a more readily accepted practice of new immigrant communities that come from more potentially corrupt political geographies. A similar issue has arisen in Greenfield, CA with the local police wanting to be culturally sensitive in the case of the resident that 'sold' his 14 year old daughter.
 
No_Such_Reality said:
It's a bitter point that it seems to be a more readily accepted practice of new immigrant communities that come from more potentially corrupt political geographies. A similar issue has arisen in Greenfield, CA with the local police wanting to be culturally sensitive in the case of the resident that 'sold' his 14 year old daughter.
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I don't know if I'd describe that as corrupt.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28629054/

"This is not a traditional trafficking case because there is no force or coercion in this," Grebmeier said. "We're aware of the cultural issues here, but state law trumps cultural sensitivity."

Grebmeier is planning to meet with leaders in the Trique community to talk about how some cultural practices might conflict with California law.

"Initially, when everyone was talking to us, we learned a lot because they had no realization that it's against the law — an arranged marriage for money with a minor," Grebmeier said.

Many Trique immigrants are part of the stream of farmworkers who tend California's fruit and vegetable fields, living in communities scattered along the coast and the state's agricultural Central Valley. The often speak only Trique, an indigenous language, and come from villages with cultural traditions that set them apart from other Mexicans.
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I have had occasion to run into some Trique's from time to time. The biggest barrier is that everyone who sees them assume they are standard issue Mexicans, except you can't talk to them because most don't speak spanish. I remember a particularly nasty outbreak of meningitis that centered around these folks (or someone just like them) about a decade ago for the exact same reason.

I've been to Greenfield many times. It's one of the shittiest tranisient migrant farming towns you've ever seen. It's only saving grace today is it's status as a commuter town for San Jose.
 
bkshopr said:
The income sample represented here is by far the best gauge from realistic home shoppers. I am not surprised at all to see the median is much higher than the Irvine average. The much lower median income in Irvine provided by the census I believed is incorrect due to the income datas from Asian population. Asians are known to have cash and have little documented income and having approx. 35% of Asians could really lower the realistic average.

The samples provided here will certainly excite the developers.
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Assuming that everyone who answered is an Irvine resident, do you honestly believe the IHB is a fair sampling of Irvine as a whole? It could also be attributed to other forum members of any race that do not live in Irvine yet participate in the forum (like myself). Or people lying. Or something completely unrelated to the Asian population. My point is that this poll is unscientific and should be treated as such. Before I get called out, let me say that I found this whole topic fun and interesting. I just think you are taking it a bit too seriously...
 
bkshopr said:
skek said:
BK, correct me if I'm wrong, but my experience suggests to me that the builders aren't so much interested in what consumers want, but rather, how little will they accept at the various price points.

I've seen some builders (not in Irvine, necessarily) in the press talk about moving projects to more attached, high-density product now that mortgage standards are tightening and the economy is weakening. To me, that misses the point. The problem wasn't that people wanted but couldn't afford a $500k condo before, the problem was that condos should have never cost $500k to begin with. If the builders think that replacing planned $750k SFRs with more $500k condos is going to get them out of the current housing slump, I think they are mistaken. They need to find a way to deliver the $750k SFRs for $500k, because that's what they once cost, and that's what they should cost again.
Click to expand...

Builders in most metro areas now such as Silicon Valley, Bay Area, and OC are keen in delivering the need of the consumers. Those who think that by building an attached product worth $500k will address the price point of the consumers will only bury themselves in the hole they dug in the first place. Many lending institutions are not approving construction loans on risky attached projects because of poor absorption. I am working with a design team at this moment to invent a $400k detached product in the Silicon Valley to address the very same issue you just pointed out. Consumers do not want attached high density products.

Banks do not like them. I do not like them. Consumers do like like them. You do not like them. It was the greed of the developers and the fault of the consumers for accepting it. The fate of Jamboree corridor is yet to be unveiled.
Click to expand...

It seems like there is a tremendous supply of these 400-500K condos still on the market. Nobody is buying them either. It will be interesting to see what happens. Many of these buildings are at 25-50% capacity, the rest of the development being vacant. Developers won't (or are unable to) reduce these pricepoints, which is a shame, as many of these properties are still being marketed towards first time homebuyers.
 
I'm a bit confused with the goal of this survey. If you want Irvine residents then it should state that, otherwise I don't think you can generalize about Irvine residents, there are many of us who love this blog but aren't from Irvine. If you want people who are looking to buy a house, then ask only those people to respond. Some of us already own and have no intention of buying in the near (or even far future). Obviously this is a self-selecting sample and that makes it fairly unscientific but if anyone wants to generalize about any specific group except general IHB readers based on these results, it just isn't possible.
 
tmare said:
I'm a bit confused with the goal of this survey. If you want Irvine residents then it should state that, otherwise I don't think you can generalize about Irvine residents, there are many of us who love this blog but aren't from Irvine. If you want people who are looking to buy a house, then ask only those people to respond. Some of us already own and have no intention of buying in the near (or even far future). Obviously this is a self-selecting sample and that makes it fairly unscientific but if anyone wants to generalize about any specific group except general IHB readers based on these results, it just isn't possible.
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The survey is not really to only address Irvine residents looking to buy a home. Most buyers bought in Irvine came from other cities with fairly close proximity to Irvine (usually about a 12 miles radius). Developers are interested in selling homes to everybody regardless of where they currently reside.

The samples here at this blog to certain extent are members who found IHB by way of a search engine researching a subject of housing. The common denominators for all of us circumscribe the interests of housing and finance. The paramount interested subject matter still circle around the topics of when and where to buy the best designed homes.

Hypothesis has been discussed previously that housing prices is beyond the affordability level compared against Irvine’s median income. Assumption was also made that Irvine’s population in general made more money than population from other cities except for Newport of course. If Irvine population can’t afford to buy then population outside of Irvine definitely don’t qualify.

The average income indicated on this survey is certainly not that far off to qualifying the WTF pricings that the builders are asking for. Is IHB only attracting the wealthier population? I would think the members here are frustrated housing bears because they can’t afford to buy but the median income indicated here is quite high (more than twice the Irvine median). Could PANDA or Bix from out of state be making over $600k and other secretive members are actually living in BelAir and Beverly and the paupers are too embarrassed to participate therefore the median income is so far skewed from published statistics?
 
I'm not sure about the questions you pose Bk, however I think we can safely assume that IHB readers are more educated than the general population and a higher education level invariably means a higher income. Another survey regarding education level might also be enlightening.
 
with the 91 responses at the moment the poll is already statistically significant. the only flaw is whether we believe people are lying, although given that the poll was anonymous, i'm not sure why people would feel the need to lie. i don't find it hard to believe the results especially given the distribution of the results. a group of nerds so dedicated to housing in irvine has a median income 50-99k more than the avg irvine family doesn't really require a stretch of the imagination.

in any case, i'm assuming when bk is referring to "irvine residents", what he means is more specifically "current and potential irvine homebuyers".
 
It's clear that Bren should be selling houses that are priced for the household 150k income level. I'm sure he know this. But it's worth the post.
 
bkshopr said:
The average income indicated on this survey is certainly not that far off to qualifying the WTF pricings that the builders are asking for.
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does it though? i have to agree with skek. based on the results of this pool, only a handful of IHB families would be able to afford a decent sized home, say a 2500sf SFR priced at $350/sf.
 
I'm in one of the lowest brackets, but then again, I'm probably one of the youngest here and I only got my MBA 6 months ago :D I'm comfortable with that... actually, I like learning from all the old pros here. That's actually what attracted me to the blog in the first place!
 
acpme said:
bkshopr said:
The average income indicated on this survey is certainly not that far off to qualifying the WTF pricings that the builders are asking for.
Click to expand...

does it though? i have to agree with skek. based on the results of this pool, only a handful of IHB families would be able to afford a decent sized home, say a 2500sf SFR priced at $350/sf.
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A maximum of 21% from the current 94 sample size would be in a position to buy the $875k house you described. I totally agree with you and Skek. 2,500 sf is a lot of house and it is IMO more than decent. A 2,000 sf well designed house at $700k has 4 bedrooms and all the necessary amenities you will need. It is the bad design with too much wasted circulation that escalated a house to 2,500 sf that consumers do not want to pay for.

In addition to lowering the value ratio developers need to design a smaller house that accomplish the same attributes as a house with 500 sf or more.
 
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