Is this True?

[quote author="skek" date=1238651332]Sorry, ipop, I gotta go with freedom and trojan on this one. I don't think this is the Great Depression 2.0, but I agree with those who are calling it a "small d" depression. It will end eventually, but not this year.</blockquote>


I didn't say the recession would be over, I said:<blockquote>and the economy is bound to start improving by the end of this year</blockquote>A declining pace of job losses would be considered as improvement would it not? I seriously doubt that 700K people or more people per month will be losing their jobs in Q409 like they are now.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1238665539]

I didn't say the recession would be over, I said:<blockquote>and the economy is bound to start improving by the end of this year</blockquote>A declining pace of job losses would be considered as improvement would it not? I seriously doubt that 700K people or more people per month will be losing their jobs in Q409 like they are now.</blockquote>


Job loss is a lagging indicator. The economy will have recovered well before the job loss does.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1238654815]



How do you know this is a recession and not a depression that lasts for 10 years?



What do you think is the difference between a depression and a recession? And when I specify "you", I am asking all of you.</blockquote>


I do not "know" but feel/believe/opine that it is not as such. My business (employment/consulting) tends to lead out of a recession and our revenues have been pretty much stable, after having declined 50% over the course of 2008, for a quarter or so now. I'm thinking that this stability foreshadows an uptick in our business and the economy later this year. Maybe we are just getting lucky? Who knows...



A depression is just a more severe contraction of GDP than a recession. I believe a 10% decline in real GDP is/would be considered a depression...
 
[quote author="rick_r" date=1238642550]I was dropping my daughter off at school this morning and started talking to a fellow parent. The parent was telling me her frustrations with trying to buy a house. She stated every house that comes up in Irvine that she is interested in is getting snatched up right away.



Is this what everyone is seeing? I just don't understand. I still think the prices are sky high. I want to buy in Quail Hill or Woodbury and still looking for a 20-30% drop from current prices.



I make a good 6 figure income and still cannot afford a desirable house at these prices. Where do these people get their money, I just don't understand. My objective is 3 bed/2Bath 2000 sq ft, $450,000. Is that too much to ask.



I will not give in to the low interest rate tease. I would rather pay less for a house at a higher interest rate then more for it at a lower rate.



Opinions are appreciated.</blockquote>


Unfortunately, not everyone can buy in Irvine. Have you looked in Mexico? That general area may be a better fit for you.
 
[quote author="asianinvasian" date=1238666319][quote author="rick_r" date=1238642550]I was dropping my daughter off at school this morning and started talking to a fellow parent. The parent was telling me her frustrations with trying to buy a house. She stated every house that comes up in Irvine that she is interested in is getting snatched up right away.



Is this what everyone is seeing? I just don't understand. I still think the prices are sky high. I want to buy in Quail Hill or Woodbury and still looking for a 20-30% drop from current prices.



I make a good 6 figure income and still cannot afford a desirable house at these prices. Where do these people get their money, I just don't understand. My objective is 3 bed/2Bath 2000 sq ft, $450,000. Is that too much to ask.



I will not give in to the low interest rate tease. I would rather pay less for a house at a higher interest rate then more for it at a lower rate.



Opinions are appreciated.</blockquote>


Unfortunately, not everyone can buy in Irvine. Have you looked in Mexico? That general area may be a better fit for you.</blockquote>


Finally we have great opinion. Thanks Asian!!!
 
[quote author="asianinvasian" date=1238666319][quote author="rick_r" date=1238642550]I was dropping my daughter off at school this morning and started talking to a fellow parent. The parent was telling me her frustrations with trying to buy a house. She stated every house that comes up in Irvine that she is interested in is getting snatched up right away.



Is this what everyone is seeing? I just don't understand. I still think the prices are sky high. I want to buy in Quail Hill or Woodbury and still looking for a 20-30% drop from current prices.



I make a good 6 figure income and still cannot afford a desirable house at these prices. Where do these people get their money, I just don't understand. My objective is 3 bed/2Bath 2000 sq ft, $450,000. Is that too much to ask.



I will not give in to the low interest rate tease. I would rather pay less for a house at a higher interest rate then more for it at a lower rate.



Opinions are appreciated.</blockquote>


Unfortunately, not everyone can buy in Irvine. Have you looked in Mexico? That general area may be a better fit for you.</blockquote>
You are really asking to be banned, aren't ya?
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1238668324][quote author="asianinvasian" date=1238666319][quote author="rick_r" date=1238642550]I was dropping my daughter off at school this morning and started talking to a fellow parent. The parent was telling me her frustrations with trying to buy a house. She stated every house that comes up in Irvine that she is interested in is getting snatched up right away.



Is this what everyone is seeing? I just don't understand. I still think the prices are sky high. I want to buy in Quail Hill or Woodbury and still looking for a 20-30% drop from current prices.



I make a good 6 figure income and still cannot afford a desirable house at these prices. Where do these people get their money, I just don't understand. My objective is 3 bed/2Bath 2000 sq ft, $450,000. Is that too much to ask.



I will not give in to the low interest rate tease. I would rather pay less for a house at a higher interest rate then more for it at a lower rate.



Opinions are appreciated.</blockquote>


Unfortunately, not everyone can buy in Irvine. Have you looked in Mexico? That general area may be a better fit for you.</blockquote>
You are really asking to be banned, aren't ya?</blockquote>


Please forgive me, what I mean to say was, go ahead and get that no down payment, stated income, interest only, adjustable rate mortgage to pay for what you can't afford and fulfill your sense of entitlement, because, in the current ecomony, we need more people like you to help prop up the housing market, thanks.
 
I actually get what AI is saying. That subtle sense of entitlement really does come through in many of the IHB'ers posts. It seems to come from either a sense of entitlement for what others have and what others have not provided for you or a sense that you somehow "deserve" a nice home in Irvine despite your ability to save or make the proper qualifying income. I get it and I see it in the posts. I probably wouldn't go so far as to say "look in Mexico" but I would say that limiting your prospects for a home to a place that you perceive as acceptable (and can't afford) while eliminating everything else is only limiting yourself.
 
[quote author="asianinvasian" date=1238674604][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1238668324][quote author="asianinvasian" date=1238666319][quote author="rick_r" date=1238642550]I was dropping my daughter off at school this morning and started talking to a fellow parent. The parent was telling me her frustrations with trying to buy a house. She stated every house that comes up in Irvine that she is interested in is getting snatched up right away.



Is this what everyone is seeing? I just don't understand. I still think the prices are sky high. I want to buy in Quail Hill or Woodbury and still looking for a 20-30% drop from current prices.



I make a good 6 figure income and still cannot afford a desirable house at these prices. Where do these people get their money, I just don't understand. My objective is 3 bed/2Bath 2000 sq ft, $450,000. Is that too much to ask.



I will not give in to the low interest rate tease. I would rather pay less for a house at a higher interest rate then more for it at a lower rate.



Opinions are appreciated.</blockquote>


Unfortunately, not everyone can buy in Irvine. Have you looked in Mexico? That general area may be a better fit for you.</blockquote>
You are really asking to be banned, aren't ya?</blockquote>


Please forgive me, what I mean to say was, go ahead and get that no down payment, stated income, interest only, adjustable rate mortgage to pay for what you can't afford and fulfill your sense of entitlement, because, in the current ecomony, we need more people like you to help prop up the housing market, thanks.</blockquote>


Last time I looked we where talking about Irvine. Not Newport Beach, not Beverly Hills, not Brentwood, not some beach city etc... Irvine is not the end all be all. Yes I can go to Lake Forest, Laguna Hills or other Southern OC city and purchase 45% off peek, but I prefer to stay in Irvine for my kids.
 
[quote author="bkshopr" date=1238653523][quote author="rick_r" date=1238651680]So since all the young couples are getting down payments from their parents to buy these homes in Woodbury/Quail Hill. Do any of you want to volunteer to accompany me to my parents house to help convince them to loan me $150K? I will pay a 1% commission of the total borrowed amount!!!



I have two young children and a stay at home wife. How the hell am I going to save 20-30% down.</blockquote>


Correction, young couple with a Chinese spouse or both then there is a 20% down payment for a home purchase as a gift from parents. If there is a stroller in the family then 30%. If the grand parent get to push it then the payment may be up from 38% -50% but never 40-49.99%.



If the son in law is white then there will be a deduction in the down payment. However, if the son in-law fights for the bill at a Chinese restaurant then there will be no deduction.</blockquote>


son-in-law says "good morning!" in crappy chinese = +2%

son-in-law can order dim sum in chinese = +5%

son-in-law uses proper names to call all relatives = +15%

son-in-law wears sneakers in the house = -2%

son-in-law has blue-collar job = -2%

son-in-law works in sanitation = -10%
 
[quote author="asianinvasian" date=1238665925][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1238665539]

I didn't say the recession would be over, I said:<blockquote>and the economy is bound to start improving by the end of this year</blockquote>A declining pace of job losses would be considered as improvement would it not? I seriously doubt that 700K people or more people per month will be losing their jobs in Q409 like they are now.</blockquote>


Job loss is a lagging indicator. The economy will have recovered well before the job loss does.</blockquote>


You are totally wrong on that. Jobs were increasing in 93, right when the economy started to recover. The funny part you neglect to mention is that the housing market continued to tank through 1996, all the while jobs were created.



Where did you take your econ 101 classes? They want to take your grade back, unless you did fail, which from this comment... it looks like you did.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1238676996][quote author="asianinvasian" date=1238665925][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1238665539]

I didn't say the recession would be over, I said:<blockquote>and the economy is bound to start improving by the end of this year</blockquote>A declining pace of job losses would be considered as improvement would it not? I seriously doubt that 700K people or more people per month will be losing their jobs in Q409 like they are now.</blockquote>


Job loss is a lagging indicator. The economy will have recovered well before the job loss does.</blockquote>


You are totally wrong on that. Jobs were increasing in 93, right when the economy started to recover. The funny part you neglect to mention is that the housing market continued to tank through 1996, all the while jobs were created.



Where did you take your econ 101 classes? They want to take your grade back, unless you did fail, which from this comment... it looks like you did.</blockquote>


Technically he is correct. Employment is included in the list of lagging indicators. Keep in mind that indicators do not always match the underlying economy. With employment the idea is that employers will not increase headcount without having a great deal of comfort in future growth. By the time employers have that comfort any recovery is probably well under way.
 
[quote author="bkshopr" date=1238644386][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1238644218][quote author="rick_r" date=1238642550]I was dropping my daughter off at school this morning and started talking to a fellow parent. The parent was telling me her frustrations with trying to buy a house. She stated every house that comes up in Irvine that she is interested in is getting snatched up right away.



Is this what everyone is seeing? I just don't understand. I still think the prices are sky high. I want to buy in Quail Hill or Woodbury and still looking for a 20-30% drop from current prices.



I make a good 6 figure income and still cannot afford a desirable house at these prices. Where do these people get their money, I just don't understand. My objective is 3 bed/2Bath 2000 sq ft, $450,000. Is that too much to ask.



I will not give in to the low interest rate tease. I would rather pay less for a house at a higher interest rate then more for it at a lower rate.



Opinions are appreciated.</blockquote>


The average days on the market value of Jan and Feb Irvine sales is around 50 days, so I believe that means that the typical Irvine property is hitting escrow within 2-3 weeks of going active... My perception is that anything priced reasonably is getting sold pretty quickly.



March prices are up over Feb and the velocity of sales, escrow activity, etc. has increased over the past month or so. We may see a couple of months of price increases, yes increases, during this Spring.</blockquote>




Hurry, hurry, hurry and buy before the good ones are gone! Ha, ha, ha.



Irvine is the cookie cutter capitol. There will always be another 30 clones that look exactly like the "good one".



Don't be a sucker and fall for the trick "there is actually a one of a kind house" so better buy now.</blockquote>


This is true... Unless the desired house is on a huge ass lot.
 
[quote author="bkshopr" date=1238644386]Irvine is the cookie cutter capitol. There will always be another 30 clones that look exactly like the "good one". </blockquote>


Cloneliness is next to Godliness.
 
[quote author="IrvineRealtor" date=1238739504][quote author="bkshopr" date=1238644386]Irvine is the cookie cutter capitol. There will always be another 30 clones that look exactly like the "good one". </blockquote>


Cloneliness is next to Godliness.</blockquote>


Only in a Bladerunner world...
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1238743855][quote author="IrvineRealtor" date=1238739504][quote author="bkshopr" date=1238644386]Irvine is the cookie cutter capitol. There will always be another 30 clones that look exactly like the "good one". </blockquote>


Cloneliness is next to Godliness.</blockquote>


Only in a Bladerunner world...</blockquote>


Bladerunner didn't have clones...
 
Remember the official definition of "recession" says it "ends" when the GDP stops declining. By that definition, the Great Depression ended in (early) 1933!



After a whopper recession like this one, and given the slow recovery from recent recessions, the economy will be bad for years after the recession "ends". We'll still have tight credit, high unemployment, and weak wages (at least in real terms).
 
[quote author="FairEconomist" date=1238764512]Remember the official definition of "recession" says it "ends" when the GDP stops declining. By that definition, the Great Depression ended in (early) 1933! </blockquote>


The Great Depression is just a catch-all terms that encompasses the entire period which included an economic depression that did end in '33 and the recession that occurred a few years afterwards. It will be interesting to see if we have persistent unemployment even after recovery similar to that time period...
 
<em>"We have long warned that this depression will be as severe in terms of falling output and employment as the early 1980s recession. But a crucial difference between that recession and this depression bears repeating: the Fed created the early 1980s recession on purpose, and has done everything in its power to prevent the current collapse, to no avail."</em>







Eric Janszen, iTulip
 
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