Is the market stagnating a bit?

irvinehomeowner

irvinehomeowner

Well-known member
Is it just me or does it seem like Irvine resales are struggling?

Observationally, the 2011 Collection isn't moving like the 2010 Collection did... and it also seems like the resale market is slowing down too.

We've seen some nice homes that before would go pending pretty quickly but lately it seems like they languish a bit, for example:

3br/2.5ba, 1708sf, $724khttp://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/57-Rising-Sun-92620/home/5958955

The smallest Portisol model and while there are not many upgrades, it does have wood floors, granite in the kitchen and very nicely landscaped backyard (and frontyard). One of the things that probably hurt this listing is they don't show a lot size but when we looked at it, it seemed pretty big... the backyard is a good entertainment area. It's pending now, but we were surprised it didn't go sooner.

If you go a little older, in Oak Creek, there are several 3/2.5 homes listed in the $600ks.

And in Woodbridge, we saw this nicely upgraded corner-lot house right across from the elementary school:

3br/2.5ba, 1786sf, $720khttp://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/2-Hickory-92614/home/4697690

It was recently lowered from $735k but comparing it to other Woodbridge homes, this is probably the nicest interior you will find, Wolf appliances, all the countertops and bathrooms are updated and even all the doors are panel doors, not the flat plain ones you see in most homes built during the 80s.

I'm seeing price reductions, homes getting re-listed and longer listing times... for anyone actively looking right now... are you seeing the same thing?

Perhaps the uncertainty in the economy and the pending lowering of the loan limits is having an effect and now that the summer season is ending... I wonder at what rate will prices continue to drop. We've seen a few that are within our parameters but we're wondering if we should just be patient since the uber bears all predicted 1999 prices.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Is it just me or does it seem like Irvine resales are struggling?

Observationally, the 2011 Collection isn't moving like the 2010 Collection did... and it also seems like the resale market is slowing down too.

We've seen some nice homes that before would go pending pretty quickly but lately it seems like they languish a bit, for example:

3br/2.5ba, 1708sf, $724khttp://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/57-Rising-Sun-92620/home/5958955

The smallest Portisol model and while there are not many upgrades, it does have wood floors, granite in the kitchen and very nicely landscaped backyard (and frontyard). One of the things that probably hurt this listing is they don't show a lot size but when we looked at it, it seemed pretty big... the backyard is a good entertainment area. It's pending now, but we were surprised it didn't go sooner.

If you go a little older, in Oak Creek, there are several 3/2.5 homes listed in the $600ks.

And in Woodbridge, we saw this nicely upgraded corner-lot house right across from the elementary school:

3br/2.5ba, 1786sf, $720khttp://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/2-Hickory-92614/home/4697690

It was recently lowered from $735k but comparing it to other Woodbridge homes, this is probably the nicest interior you will find, Wolf appliances, all the countertops and bathrooms are updated and even all the doors are panel doors, not the flat plain ones you see in most homes built during the 80s.

I'm seeing price reductions, homes getting re-listed and longer listing times... for anyone actively looking right now... are you seeing the same thing?

Perhaps the uncertainty in the economy and the pending lowering of the loan limits is having an effect and now that the summer season is ending... I wonder at what rate will prices continue to drop. We've seen a few that are within our parameters but we're wondering if we should just be patient since the uber bears all predicted 1999 prices.
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Well, the number of sales did come down about 20%+ from June to July so that shows you right there that things have slowed down a bit.  That being said, some properties still fly into escrow fairly quickly (the home that I put a bid in for and the detached flipper condo in Oak Creek come to mind).  So is the Irvine market slowing down a bit?  Sure.  How much?  Not all that much as of right now.
 
I can't see Irvine hitting 1999 pricing, it will simply take too long to drop that far.  2001 is a different story, but that still is a shed of hundreds of thousands on most of the properties.  Give it some time where the gov't isn't messing with the market and investors start losing interest in trying to flip homes in Irvine and prices will start to get to where they need to be.  At least, that's my opinion.
 
Yeah really. What kind of margins would flippers be working with here in Irvine? -20%... maybe -25%?
 
Nous said:
I can't see Irvine hitting 1999 pricing, it will simply take too long to drop that far.  2001 is a different story, but that still is a shed of hundreds of thousands on most of the properties.  Give it some time where the gov't isn't messing with the market and investors start losing interest in trying to flip homes in Irvine and prices will start to get to where they need to be.  At least, that's my opinion.
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The thing is... I don't think pricing returns to its nominal pre-bubble pricing.

It didn't do it in the previous bubble (late 80s/early 90s) and interest rates were pretty high back then... so with record low rates now... I just can't see how it could get back to 1999.

I remember seeing some graphs on median pricing out there (maybe on the IHB), it actually looked like we are very near the straight baseline for adjusted median housing.
 
Unemployment. Big factor in why housing is stagnant. Regardless of rates, pricing, etc, you need to have a stable income to even qualify for a home loan.

As an aside, yesterday I was at the Ralph's on Main and Harvard in Irvine visiting a relative in Westpark. I was picking up some dinner supplies, and an older asian guy approached me, pushing a shopping cart with a bag in it. He was wearing a dirty t-shirt with about 100 holes in it. He told me the following:

"I lost my job 2 years ago. I can't afford to pay my bills and house. I live in the neighborhood and was wondering if you had some money to spare."

This is the first time, in over a decade of living in Irvine, that I've even been approached by a beggar within the city limits. I spend most of my time South of the 405, but it's shocking to see that things have gotten this bad in some parts of Irvine. Median home price doesn't mean sh*t if these guys are hanging on by a thread. Honestly a humbling moment for me.
 
not doubting that the market has stagnated but just wondering how much of that is the start of the normal trend of slower sales pace after the summer?  i'm assuming those that are trying to move before the beginning of the school year have bought or are already in escrow...
 
IndieDev said:
"I lost my job 2 years ago. I can't afford to pay my bills and house. I live in the neighborhood and was wondering if you had some money to spare."
Click to expand...

Amazing how he could still afford to live in Irvine.  Unless he is older and paid off his mortgage already.

So did you give him any money?
 
IndieDev said:
This is the first time, in over a decade of living in Irvine, that I've even been approached by a beggar within the city limits. I spend most of my time South of the 405, but it's shocking to see that things have gotten this bad in some parts of Irvine. Median home price doesn't mean sh*t if these guys are hanging on by a thread. Honestly a humbling moment for me.
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Then you need to venture north of the 405 more.  In the past few years, I have been approached by foreign women (Arab? Persian? Gypsy?) that apparently don't speak English, and have to resort to hand-written signs to beg for money.  This has happened in the Quail Hill shopping plaza, in the Oak Creek shopping plaza, and in North Park.  The odd thing is that they tend to be fairly well dressed (not tattered clothing).  I actually suspect a larger operation, as I thought I saw more than one begging in a particular plaza, and the neatness of the written sign seemed odd.  The cynic in me thought that maybe they were underwater on their Quail Hill home and just needed help paying the mortgage...

 
Same here. We've been approached a couple times by the same type of foreign well dressed people at the Tustin Ranch Costco.

oakcreekrenter said:
IndieDev said:
This is the first time, in over a decade of living in Irvine, that I've even been approached by a beggar within the city limits. I spend most of my time South of the 405, but it's shocking to see that things have gotten this bad in some parts of Irvine. Median home price doesn't mean sh*t if these guys are hanging on by a thread. Honestly a humbling moment for me.
Click to expand...

Then you need to venture north of the 405 more.  In the past few years, I have been approached by foreign women (Arab? Persian? Gypsy?) that apparently don't speak English, and have to resort to hand-written signs to beg for money.  This has happened in the Quail Hill shopping plaza, in the Oak Creek shopping plaza, and in North Park.  The odd thing is that they tend to be fairly well dressed (not tattered clothing).  I actually suspect a larger operation, as I thought I saw more than one begging in a particular plaza, and the neatness of the written sign seemed odd.  The cynic in me thought that maybe they were underwater on their Quail Hill home and just needed help paying the mortgage...
Click to expand...
 
oakcreekrenter said:
Then you need to venture north of the 405 more.  In the past few years, I have been approached by foreign women (Arab? Persian? Gypsy?) that apparently don't speak English, and have to resort to hand-written signs to beg for money.  This has happened in the Quail Hill shopping plaza, in the Oak Creek shopping plaza, and in North Park.  The odd thing is that they tend to be fairly well dressed (not tattered clothing).  I actually suspect a larger operation, as I thought I saw more than one begging in a particular plaza, and the neatness of the written sign seemed odd.  The cynic in me thought that maybe they were underwater on their Quail Hill home and just needed help paying the mortgage...
Click to expand...
Seen this gypsy type ladies all over... usually parking lots... saw one last weekend IN the Irvine Spectrum as you walk in near PF Chang's.

Someone I knew actually took one into the grocery store to buy her things (instead of giving her money) and her kid was throwing a fit asking for candy... wow... what happened to beggars can't be choosers?
 
NoSoup4U said:
IndieDev said:
"I lost my job 2 years ago. I can't afford to pay my bills and house. I live in the neighborhood and was wondering if you had some money to spare."
Click to expand...

Amazing how he could still afford to live in Irvine.  Unless he is older and paid off his mortgage already.

So did you give him any money?
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Yeah, I was pretty shocked. He did seem to be older, perhaps in his early 50s. Westpark homes, detached, or attached go for a bit of money so I'm hoping this guy didn't HELOC all the equity out of his house during the bubble or he's a goner.

I did give him money. When I was driving away, part of me felt bad I didn't give him all the cash I had in my wallet. It wasn't a good feeling to see that guy walking around the parking lot begging for money.
 
oakcreekrenter said:
IndieDev said:
This is the first time, in over a decade of living in Irvine, that I've even been approached by a beggar within the city limits. I spend most of my time South of the 405, but it's shocking to see that things have gotten this bad in some parts of Irvine. Median home price doesn't mean sh*t if these guys are hanging on by a thread. Honestly a humbling moment for me.
Click to expand...

Then you need to venture north of the 405 more.  In the past few years, I have been approached by foreign women (Arab? Persian? Gypsy?) that apparently don't speak English, and have to resort to hand-written signs to beg for money.  This has happened in the Quail Hill shopping plaza, in the Oak Creek shopping plaza, and in North Park.  The odd thing is that they tend to be fairly well dressed (not tattered clothing).  I actually suspect a larger operation, as I thought I saw more than one begging in a particular plaza, and the neatness of the written sign seemed odd.  The cynic in me thought that maybe they were underwater on their Quail Hill home and just needed help paying the mortgage...
Click to expand...

I've seen those types around Westminster (outside of Broddards), and Garden Grove, but never in Irvine. This economic crash is something else.
 
IndieDev said:
As an aside, yesterday I was at the Ralph's on Main and Harvard in Irvine visiting a relative in Westpark. I was picking up some dinner supplies, and an older asian guy approached me, pushing a shopping cart with a bag in it. He was wearing a dirty t-shirt with about 100 holes in it.
Click to expand...
This might have been BK pulling a fast one on you.

Observe his post in OCReader:

http://www.ocreader.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=16555&sid=2c0782f0e4737ecf5cbba053547588a1#p16555
BK said:
Sorry I can't talk anymore I have to get back to my post outside Ralphs at Harvard and Main. :cool:
Click to expand...
 
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2011/News/California/Southern-CA/RRSCA110815.aspx

All homes..........July 2011........ %Chng
Los Angeles........320,000......... -5.60%
Orange..............437,500..........-2.80%
Riverside...........190,000..........-5.00%
San Bernardino...151,000.........-2.60%
San Diego..........325,000.........-3.80%
Ventura............360,000..........-2.70%
SoCal...............283,000..........-4.10%

Back to our regularly scheduled programming!
 
"Stagnant" is a good word in my opinion.  It's definitely not collapsing.  It also depends on what you are looking at.  For the SFR market, 2000 sq ft+, newer build, pricing seems pretty consistent somewhere in the mid 300's per sq ft.  Seems like there are some stubborn equity sellers out there with list prices in the upper end of the 300's.  I think with the economy where it is, not even attractive rates are convincing a flood of buyers to pay these asking prices.  Even for myself, I'd like to pay $750K for a ~2400 sq ft home (4000 sq ft lot, 2 story, 2 car garage - the IRvine standard).  I'm not in a rush, so I'll wait to see how things pan out.. 

 
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