Is Talega near bottom?

[quote author="jriosdds" date=1233245877]Here we go:





<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Clemente/20-Corte-El-Brazo-92673/home/5961246">20 Corte El Brazo</a>





A new low PSF for a premium view lot? Could Talega actually hit $150/SF?</blockquote>


What does the December 31, 2008 sales price represent? Is that what the bank too it back for?
 
[quote author="pickandsave" date=1233707338][quote author="jriosdds" date=1233245877]Here we go:





<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Clemente/20-Corte-El-Brazo-92673/home/5961246">20 Corte El Brazo</a>





A new low PSF for a premium view lot? Could Talega actually hit $150/SF?</blockquote>


What does the December 31, 2008 sales price represent? Is that what the bank too it back for?</blockquote>


Yes. JP Morgan Chase is now the proud owner.



Owner(s): JP MORGAN CHASE BANK NA



Ownership Rights: ASSOCIATION



Corporate Owner: CORPORATE OWNER



Absentee Owner: SITUS FROM SALE (ABSENTEE)



Additional Owner #1: JP MORGAN CHASE BANK NA



Owner Rights: ASSOCIATION



Property Address: 20 CORTE EL BRAZO



SAN CLEMENTE CA 92673-7023





PROPERTY INFORMATION



County: ORANGE



Assessor's Parcel Number: 708-062-05



Property Type: SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENCE - TOWNHOUSE



Land Use: SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENCE





TRANSACTION INFORMATION



Transaction Date: 12/22/2008



Seller Name: QUALITY LOAN SERVICE CORP



Sale Price: $760,750.00



Deed Type: FORECLOSURE DEED



Type of Transaction: RESALE



Recording Date: 12/31/2008



Document Number: 596987



Construction Type: SALE IS A RE-SALE



Purchase Payment: CASH



Foreclosure Sale: REO - NOMINAL, TRANSFER BETWEEN BANK AND FNMA, FHA, ETC..
 
<blockquote>What part confuses you (other than the Villages of Columbus is a shithole)?</blockquote>


Well... Compton is a s*#&hole;. Most of Santa Ana and parts of Tustin are s*#@holes. Talega nor VoC would hardly be considered that. If you think it represents something you don't like, that's different than those being s#*@holes. The reason something was built - i.e. take advantage of the housing boom - has not much to do with whether it is a nice place or not. Heck, Trump Towers is a great residence but built purely for the times. Talega has their faults (too hot, can get crowded), but it is a great neighborhood that offers a great environment to raise your kids. Has a great golf course too. It's just all a matter of what you would pay to live there. I would pay $400K for a 2000-2200 sf in Talega. But I wouldn't pay $600K. If it was built in the 90's, it would be a nice neighborhood. The fact that it was built in the 2000's doesn't make it otherwise.
 
Unfortunately (or fortunately), the fact that Talega was built in the 2000's means that many of the loans were subprime, Alt-A or Interest Only. Personally, I'd love to buy down there. However, like you, it's going to take a nice discount from something similiar in Aliso Viejo to get me to move all the way down there. Drop baby drop!
 
Let's face it, if you have 2+ kids and want a new decent sized house with 9000K sq foot plus yard, your options are basically Talega, Ladera, and parts of laguna niguel and SJC. Ideally we'd rather have a house in Newport Coast or Laguna Beach, but it'd cost us 2-3 million which we can't afford. But in those cities mentioned above you can get a sweet deal especially in the 1-1.4 mill range. For example in Ladera I can get a 4000 sq foot house on a 10000sq foot lot. In NC I get a 2600 sq foot house with a 5000K sq foot lot and a shared driveway...no thanks!
 
Just noticed this <a href="http://www.echelberger.com/greensheet.htm">website</a>. It's some realtor who publishes "the green sheet, your monthly update on properties in talega". It lists all the active and some recently sold properties in Talega. It looks like over half the houses being offered are short sales or bank owned.
 
So if that's the case, do you really think it could be near bottom? As much as many would like to see bottom, it is a ways away for everyone. Wait until these foreclosures clear out, they'll only make way for more as the downward spiral continues.
 
[quote author="OCCOBRA" date=1235320628]Talega will not be near the bottom if that is so important to you (why?) for another 4 to 6 years if not longer. Since every loan that has been done there since about 2002 is probably toxic and prices have dropped and with the Alt-A, Option arm, 5 year fixed and Jumbo loans all upside down and counting all the HELOC's that have been turned off and job losses mounting i think you have a world of hurt coming soon. Sorry but unless your in for the long run and can afford you payments as is the whole place is going to be another waste zone of vanished equity...Time to buy a helmet.</blockquote>
 
only 16months SFR inventory, and 12 months condo inventory there. definitely a sellers market! surely the bottom is just around the corner...
 
[quote author="joeyp" date=1235286284]Just noticed this <a href="http://www.echelberger.com/greensheet.htm">website</a>. It's some realtor who publishes "the green sheet, your monthly update on properties in talega". It lists all the active and some recently sold properties in Talega. It looks like over half the houses being offered are short sales or bank owned.</blockquote>


That "green sheet" is a geat reference. Good job for Mr. Eichelberger. However, I must say that his 2 paragraph description about the weather in San Clemente makes me laugh. Even with 15+ years experience, he talks about the weather as if only home buyers experience the sunshine and renters do not experience that luxury. Laughable.
 
I've been watching Talega recently. Me and the Mrs. are considering buying down there. Lots of activity, especially in the 600-700k range. Some houses that are priced well are moving into backup offer status or hold do not show within days of being listed, with multiple offers on the propert (e.g. 28 Via Ceramica, 20 Via Alonso). Is it possible the 2300-2800 sq/ft homes down there are bottoming at ~250-270 sq/ft? thoughts?
 
I've been watching that area pretty closely as well (and the same price range). The Via Apuesto, Calle Verdardero, etc... price range is going to get pushed down more IMHO. First of all, these properties are anywhere from 2200-2600 sq/ft and the competitive listings are in the low 600's. Like you said, about $250 sq/ft. However, there is a massive quantity of 3,000 sq/ft homes on the streets above these listings and elsewhere that are asking closer to $200-$220 sq/ft... and they STILL aren't selling. Even some listings starting to drop into the high $100's. Yes, I know this has a lot to do with the issues with Jumbo loans, but still... they are far more competitively priced and the amenities in the bigger houses are much much better.



So, rambling aside. I see it dropping further. I honestly think that range bottoms at $200 sq/ft or even $185 sq/ft if it shoots down further.

1. Talega has very high taxes & HOA's

2. The commute is very far. Most buyers would purchase a comparable property closer to their workplace.

3. Talega was most purchased during the 2002-2006 period. The percentage of "home owners" underwater has to be insane. Anyone have a good guess?

4. High percentage of quirky mortgage products
 
[quote author="TR_Esq" date=1248485736]I've been watching Talega recently. Me and the Mrs. are considering buying down there. Lots of activity, especially in the 600-700k range. Some houses that are priced well are moving into backup offer status or hold do not show within days of being listed, with multiple offers on the propert (e.g. 28 Via Ceramica, 20 Via Alonso). Is it possible the 2300-2800 sq/ft homes down there are bottoming at ~250-270 sq/ft? thoughts?</blockquote>
No. It is not possible.
 
[quote author="TR_Esq" date=1248485736]I've been watching Talega recently. Me and the Mrs. are considering buying down there. Lots of activity, especially in the 600-700k range. Some houses that are priced well are moving into backup offer status or hold do not show within days of being listed, with multiple offers on the propert (e.g. 28 Via Ceramica, 20 Via Alonso). Is it possible the 2300-2800 sq/ft homes down there are bottoming at ~250-270 sq/ft? thoughts?</blockquote>


If you look in the $600-$700k range, you should look at the 3,000-3,500 houses.
 
[quote author="gepetoh" date=1233805757]<blockquote>What part confuses you (other than the Villages of Columbus is a shithole)?</blockquote>


Well... Compton is a s*#&hole;. Most of Santa Ana and parts of Tustin are s*#@holes. Talega nor VoC would hardly be considered that. If you think it represents something you don't like, that's different than those being s#*@holes. The reason something was built - i.e. take advantage of the housing boom - has not much to do with whether it is a nice place or not. Heck, Trump Towers is a great residence but built purely for the times. Talega has their faults (too hot, can get crowded), but it is a great neighborhood that offers a great environment to raise your kids. Has a great golf course too. It's just all a matter of what you would pay to live there. I would pay $400K for a 2000-2200 sf in Talega. But I wouldn't pay $600K. If it was built in the 90's, it would be a nice neighborhood. The fact that it was built in the 2000's doesn't make it otherwise.</blockquote>


Talega is hot? I'd say AV, LR and certain Temecula are hotter places that Talega. Any weather persons on here who can confirm?
 
[quote author="norcaljeff" date=1248606900][quote author="gepetoh" date=1233805757]<blockquote>What part confuses you (other than the Villages of Columbus is a shithole)?</blockquote>


Well... Compton is a s*#&hole;. Most of Santa Ana and parts of Tustin are s*#@holes. Talega nor VoC would hardly be considered that. If you think it represents something you don't like, that's different than those being s#*@holes. The reason something was built - i.e. take advantage of the housing boom - has not much to do with whether it is a nice place or not. Heck, Trump Towers is a great residence but built purely for the times. Talega has their faults (too hot, can get crowded), but it is a great neighborhood that offers a great environment to raise your kids. Has a great golf course too. It's just all a matter of what you would pay to live there. I would pay $400K for a 2000-2200 sf in Talega. But I wouldn't pay $600K. If it was built in the 90's, it would be a nice neighborhood. The fact that it was built in the 2000's doesn't make it otherwise.</blockquote>


Talega is hot? I'd say AV, LR and certain Temecula are hotter places that Talega. Any weather persons on here who can confirm?</blockquote>


It's five miles inland. It's as warm there as Foothill Ranch, which is about the same as LR, slightly better than Temecula, and worse than AV.



If you ever get a chance to go to Hearst Castle during the summer, you can see what proximity to the water and elevation can do to temperature. It its sunny, it'll be around 75 at the parking lot. You get on the bus to go to the top (takes about five minutes) and it's 100+ maybe 1/2 mile away. I grew up near Fresno and this was my first introduction to microclimates.



Wednesdays I spend a couple of hours around Bake and the I-5, followed by about an hour in Crown Valley and the I-5. It's always 10 degrees cooler at Crown Valley, and I'm not to the water yet!
 
[quote author="no_vaseline" date=1248657057][quote author="norcaljeff" date=1248606900][quote author="gepetoh" date=1233805757]<blockquote>It's five miles inland. It's as warm there as Foothill Ranch, which is about the same as LR, slightly better than Temecula, and worse than AV.!</blockquote>


It's five miles inland. It's as warm there as Foothill Ranch, which is about the same as LR, slightly better than Temecula, and worse than AV. <blockquote>



For those unfamiliar with Talega, please know that no vas is flat wrong. No vas, I'm not sure if you've ever been to Talega. As a starting point, Talega (town center) is probably 2-2.5 miles from the I-5. call it another 1-2 to the beach. So Talega, at most is 3-4 miles from the beach. Mabe some places in Talega are closer to 5, but even so, stating that's it's as hot as FR and hotter than AV is kind of absurd. Foothill Ranch is at least 20 miles inland? AV is probably 10-12 miles from Main Beach -- but nestled on the backside of the mountains - thus blocking coastal winds. It's common sense that places 12-20 miles from the ocean are hotter than a place 4 miles from it. Temecula? really?



I grew up in NB, now live in Turtle Ridge. Talega has literally an identical climate. I have friends that I grew up with that now live down there that think the same. Also have friends who live in LR who, at the last BBQ we attended in Talega were struck by "how much cooler Talega is than Ladera". this makes sense too considering LR is essentially Mission Viejo.
 
<blockquote>

It's five miles inland. It's as warm there as Foothill Ranch, which is about the same as LR, slightly better than Temecula, and worse than AV.

</blockquote>


I actually just did this test this last week (Wednesday June 22nd). At about 1PM, I measured the temperature in Irvine at the 405 & Sand Canyon, and it was 91 degrees.



Within 30 minutes, I measured it in San Juan Capistrano at Ortega & the 5, and it was 81 degrees, and San Clemente at Vista Hermosa & the 5 it was 80 degrees. Heading up to Talega at the top of La Pata, it was 83 degrees.



My guess would be FR and LR would be considerably hotter than San Clemente, at least comparable to the middle of Irvine.



I actually measured it down in Oceanside/Carlsbad about 30 minutes after that where it was only 78 degrees at Palomar Airport and the 5, but considerably more humid.
 
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