Is Peter Schiff sound like a sales person or is it just me?

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OCMan_IHB

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I've listened and read Peter Schiff for the last 1.5 years and had to agree with him on many points. I thought his points were realistic and he saw ax coming down on Real Estate and our economy. However, my opinion about him is changing little bit. Even yesterday I heard him saying on KNX1070 radio still ripping US stocks, dollars, and praising Oil, Gold, and Foreign Exchange. He said this was a great time to sell dollars in strong position, put money in gold and oil because gold will hit $2000/oz and oil will hit $200/barrel next year.



Well, I kinda get his points but can anyone call any price level on anything in short term any more? I mean yeah prices will go up in the future, but so would US stock, dollar, and yes, even housing price in a long run. I am not bullish on stock market now but his almost one sided mind is starting to getting on my nerve and makes me think that may be his bet on oil, gold, and foreign curreny got him in trouble, loosing a lot his and his client's money (especially since many jump shift to oil and gold only within a year or so, I guess). So he has to push his ideas more aggresively, sell his second book using people's fear and greed and take his profit.



Doesn't he sound like a typical RE agent on his commodity call? "Prices have come down on oil and gold so this is the great time to buy!" "It will hit $2000/oz and $200/barrel so you'll be priced out. You should buy now!" "Oil and Gold always appreciates so you should buy!" "Other currency will appreciate far more and dollar will become worthless (your rent is worthless and throwing money away, so you should buy homes (even at blown up price so you could make more money on new homes) so you should buy yens, Euros, and pounds!"



I do think that oil price will go back up some what eventually but have confidence that we learned the lesson and will not starting buying Hummers again. Also past oil price surge triggered alternative fuel awareness, research, and development that could hinder further oil price hike. Gold, not sure about that and don't know much except, I don't have any and don't have much of uses. I think I rather buy Titanium, silver, copper, or some other metals that could be used by many industries but I'm ignorant on that. As far as other countries' currency, that's tough because foreign stock market plunged more than US and weak dollar will actually help US company to export more and get bigger profit. At least our recession started a year ago. Europe, Asia, and other emerging area are just starting now and many don't have diversified industries as we do or vast resources as we do.



Sorry for long message but Peter Schiff made little disappointed by acting like he can't loose no matter what...
 
The problem with public success is that it often leads people to believe that they are a) infallible, b) invulnerable, and/or c) that their previous correct assesment equals an expert opinion on every other subject. People in the media also have to contend with interviewers who ask vague, open-ended questions during live interviews. Most people are not used to that kind of instant pressure and, in an attempt to please the person asking the question, they make stuff up. Schiff has been prediciting doom for so long that people learned to ignore him, until doom actually arrived. Now he's in the spotlight and people expect him to *know* the future... so he gives them his opinion.



I'm not going to call him a liar, because I think we have yet to hit a bottom in any area, but I'm not saying he's got his numbers correct either.
 
I do not have the answer to many of your questions. It sounds personal.

But, I think you are misrepresenting what he is saying and putting your own spin on some of it. An example, I am sure Schiff never said, <em>?Oil and Gold always appreciates so you should buy!?</em>. You may be a little less irritated if you listen to what he is actually saying and not get caught up with the manner in which he is saying it. My take is that Schiff has not changed his predictions in the last three or four years and he is not saying anything different now than he has been saying for years.

In response to your statement, <em>"I mean yeah prices will go up in the future, but so would US stock, dollar, and yes, even housing price in a long run."</em>, I think it highly unlikely that prices would go up and the dollar would go up at the same time. Historically, I do not think this has ever happened, except for very brief periods of time. I assume you are speaking of the dollar relative to other currencies.
 
awgee,



Well, may be you are right in some extent. But, I'm not saying Peter Schiff is dead wrong. I thought, sometimes showing genuine humility of humbleness would not hurt even in the cut throat business world when your forecast turned out to be not true. Also if he thinks US economy will collapse, I'm thinking what is he doing here? I saw a rich man on FOX news participating one of those money show and he actually moved his family to Singapore because he thought the center of the universe is moving from US to China and he wanted his kids to speak Chinese. That may be little extreme but at least he does what he preaches. On the other hand Peter moved from Cal to Northeast corner and still saying how horrible US government and economy in general and we are inevitably doomed pretty much. May be so but many people (stupid or not) are hurting big time and one could be little more sensitive or sympathetic at times, unless he is about to go down some how because of this financial crisis.



And yes, I don't mean dollar absolute value going up. I meant in Forex way.
 
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