Irvine public schools? reputation and housing stress

<p>ABC, mortgage / real estate doens't generate sales tax. The landlords still have to pay property tax regardless it is vacant or not. You can argue local businesses are losing business, therefore generating less sales tax. Given the fact that there are other businesses that are booming in Irvine, it kind of off sets a bit. </p>

<p>I think the biggest issue across OC is consumer confidence issues which causes lower sales tax revenue. Though I don't know what % of City of Irvine's budget comes from Sales Tax Revenue. Personally, I have postponed several home improvement projects.</p>

<p> </p>
 
<p>Eva -- garfangle just fires me up with his/her silly posts about "Irvine is not rich", "irvine should be valued no more than Austin or Detroit" et. al. I equate garfangle's posts to what would commonly be referred to as a "Seagull Manager" if we were talking business. You don't hear from them for months, then they swoop down and shit all over everything, only to fly back out without providing any value, and not to be heard from again for months. I don't log on much, but I always like to jump in on the garfangle posts that seem to imply we are all just a bunch of Slade Smileys who are gonna get theirs real soon. Hopefully garfangle knows it's all just in good fun, I'm sure once he or she visits Irvine, they will realize we don't exactly fit "The OC" stereotype implied in those posts.</p>
 
<p>"What do you think that says about Irvine culture? "</p>

<p>That people buy and have paid a premium to live here because it has the best schools, is (was) ranked #1 for safety, is clean, good upkeep, new, has as the attractions of a Rockwell Saturday Evening Post cover as much for the prestige as the family advantages.</p>

<p>If they lose that, not only do they lose substantial wealth because frankly, IMHO, without the above, Irvine's dense shared development is a serious negative. They also loose substantial prestige because it was #1 in many of those categories before they got there and it wasn't after they got there.</p>
 
<em>My intent here is to stimulate more folks to back up their statements with solid data instead, especially those "factless dooms day" scenarios.





</em>I agree, and I think that is why we all come here. That is why I am here, and why I am so active here, er most active here. That, and I am a data junkie. I have never been this active on a forum before. The diversity and intelligence of the IHBer's constently keeps my mind stimulated. And, for someone who is the poster child for A.D.D., that says a lot.


<em>


Making a "factless" statement after jumping either a "bear wagon" or "bull wagon" is a complete waste of blog space and waste fellow bloggers' time.





</em>It is a waste of time, and I think it is why so many bullish people here never stay long. There are just too many facts against a bullish stance. If the facts were there to be bullish, then they would be able to use them to back up their case. This is the Irvine <em>housing </em>blog, not the Irvine <em>housing bubble </em>blog. And, I look forward to the day when I can shift to being a bull again, and I will use facts to back it up.


<em>


ABC, mortgage / real estate doens't generate sales tax.


</em>


True, but it does generate income tax. Just thinking of how much is lost with New Century being gone is scary.





I will find the sales data for 2003 and 2004. The issue I am having, is the OCR has changed their format and how they report the sales data so many times, that it is a PITA to find. I may have to try Lexus Nexis for it, but I will find it.
 
ABC,





The number 148,697 is the amount of people employed in that sector working in OC. The Irvine number is the amount of people who live in Irvine and work in that sector. I do not know the number of people who commute from the IE and LA area for that sector. A rough guess would be around 9000.





CK,





Your seagull manager made me nearly spit my coffee out this morning. I know exactly the type you are speaking of.


<em>


They will realize we don't exactly fit "The OC" stereotype implied in those posts.





</em>Sadly, with the all discussions that have gone here, you would think that would be apparently clear. We are those weird freaks in the back corner with industrial strength tin foil hats on.
 
Don't forget also that property tax collected in a city doesn't necessarily go directly to the schools in the city (except in some instances). After Serrano v. Priest in 1976, property tax is spread out throughout the state to equalize funding to schools situated in cities with less property tax revenue. Thus, the loss in property tax revenue in any given city will be felt statewide (although I always thought that we should have an excess of property tax given the extreme appreciation in house prices in the last few years.) Also, currently property tax account for only approx. 20 % of all school funding. If there is a recession as predicted by many, than the schools will be hit with less funding. Any one really interested in school finance issues can look at: <a href="http://www.edsource.org/pdf/QA_financefinal.pdf">http://www.edsource.org/pdf/QA_financefinal.pdf</a>
 
I agree that the doom and gloom is getting really old. At this point, no one thinks that prices will go up, so no one talks about it anymore. Conversation has switched to the coming election. Housing is old news, and won't be exciting again until it goes back up in X number of years.





Life in Irvine will go on as usual. How many Irvine people lost 100's of thousands after the tech bust in stocks? I know many many people. They're fine, life goes on. Many people lost their jobs, it was pretty bad. But through all of that there was no mass chaos, or anything of the sort. People adapt.





This blog should be for intelligent conversation about the market, and what opportunities are coming. Outsiders would love to see the whole OC market crumble, and send a big "I told you so" at us. It isn't happening, so we get those comments.
 
<em>ABC, mortgage / real estate doens't generate sales tax</em>





I didn't realize that businesses weren't a major source of revenue for cities so that got me to wondering where does Irvine get most of its money?





I found their <a href="http://www.cityofirvine.org/civica/filebank/blobdload.asp?BlobID=10233">annual report</a> online and thought it was pretty interesting:








ECONOMIC CONDITION





The Southern California economy continues to show signs of strengthening, with Irvine experiencing growth in its key revenue sectors of sales and property taxes. In contrast to the State’s recent fiscal troubles, the City of Irvine continues to be in a strong financial position due to prudent management of its resources.





Overall, the City’s general fund revenue and transfers for Fiscal Year 2005-06 increased 63% over Fiscal Year 2004-05, as did the related expenditures. The revenue and expenditure growth, shown in the adjacent graph, largely resulted from developer payments (totaling $66.7 million in revenue) pursuant to the Orange County Great Park Development Agreement, and related transfers to a special fund for use by the Great Park Corporation to develop the public amenities at the Great Park.





The elevated trend for revenues and expenditures (including amounts above for the Great Park) will continue in Fiscal Year 2006-07 due to another $66.7 million developer payment.





The largest component of the City’s general fund, sales tax, is projected to increase by 12.8% over prior year actual amounts to reflect anticipated levels of local business and consumer spending, particularly in the transportation and retail sectors. Irvine continued to experience a rise in property tax revenues, even though Proposition 13 restricts increases to property tax assessments. This growth was attributed primarily to new development and resale activity. With $33.8 billion of assessable property in fiscal year 2005-06, and the Orange County Assessor’s estimate of $39.2 billion in 2006-07, Irvine remains the number one city in assessed valuation in Orange County. This 15.9% growth in assessed value from the prior year is reflective of the ongoing expansion of the residential market in the City, as well as commercial property transactions.
 
In 2006 New Century was only the 7th biggest employer in Irvine. The first was UCI and the second was the Irvine Unified School District (pg 191 of report).





The Irvine Company was the biggest property tax payer (10% of the city's total taxable assessed value) followed by the Irvine Apartment Communities (pg 183).
 
I think tax revenue from consumer spending will suffer and there will be lost revenue from no property tax on unsold/delinquent properties. The degree of this loss needs to be determined but it will most surely not be as rosy as 06-07.
 
<p>Doesn't the filing of deeds and mtges generate documentary stamp revenues? It might have some other name. Florida got some extra billions out of all the sales and re-fis, which it is sorely missing now.</p>

<p>Surely California didn't miss this juicy taxing opportunity?</p>
 
[quote author="hs_teacher" date=1195494398]And in terms of SATs scores, all 4 of the Irvine high schools are in the top 8 in the county.</blockquote>


Yeah, they get to do that by farming out all the underperformers to SELF and San Joaquin...
 
At the Welcome to Kindergarten meeting/orientation held at City Hall a couple of months ago, the main speaker (who I believe was the district director for elementary education) made a statement along the lines of "while we at IUSD are aware our test scores are higher than average, these scores alone are not a major factor when making decisions on cirriculum and teaching styles." I nearly stood up shouted PLLLUUUUZZZEEEE --- don't insult our intelligence like that.



They probably live for those test scores. I can only imagine the heat a principal at an "underperforming" Irvine school is given to improve results. I'll bet anything less than an API score of 900 is unacceptable to the district.
 
[quote author="Anonymous" date=1211425121]Anyone know exactly which California school districts are doing this per the article?



School Districts Get Tough As Home Foreclosures Rise

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121132356129808569.html



"Some school districts, hoping to control costs and prevent overcrowding, are intensifying efforts to make sure students actually live where they are registered."</blockquote>


When I used to live in the Bay Area several years ago, I know the Cupertino school district used to send the police around to verify residency. I believe they actually checked to make sure there was a bedroom for the child in the home, because you had a lot of people using addresses of friends or relatives to enroll in the district.



Have not heard of that in Irvine, but it would not surprise me in the least if we went that route. Irvine does have a bit of a big brother watching you feel to it. I mean, name another city where you get a birthday card from the city council? That was weird.
 
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