Irvine Inventory

Irvine Dream

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Redfin was showing reducing inventory the past few months and today I see a sudden increase (more than 70) in inventory.  Need to burrow in and check the reason.  Anyone has historical inventory data for Irvine?
 
They added a bunch of new home tracts like Sage, Cariz, Jasmine etc. Apparently pulling data from newhomesource.com now.
 
Everyone in November and December says "I'll wait until January to list...." Come the 1st week of the new year, pop goes the number of listed homes. My 1/5/16 O.C. new listing sheet was 3 pages deep this morning!

This spike of inventory will likely begin to suppress prices a bit. If you're looking to refinance, it's going to become ever tougher for appraisals to support the closed home values that many people paid earlier this year. 2016's going to be quite a ride for some.

My .02c
 
Hey JW,

Did your list of new listings include new builds?  Like someone mentioned above, I noticed a lot of new listings from builders that typically were not listed by redfin. 

I agree with you that a majority of these are people waiting to list until the holiday season is over.  I saw a bunch of non-new builds also listing over the past couple days.

 
Soylent Green Is People said:
... 2016's going to be quite a ride for some.

My .02c

Thanks for your input.  Are you predicting that the price level won't go up or even dip a little with increased inventory, increase in fed rate (even thought no direct effect on 30 yr mortgage but may get 3 to 5 times more in 2016), and the stock market going down the drain?  I still see the price level and the stringent requirement for mortgage are just too much to get what I would like to purchase.  Personally, I would like to see 10 to 15% drop in price to be comfortable making monthly payment, but may not be realistic until some disastrous event happens...
 
Looks like Redfin is not capturing the new home listings properly.  Redfin is including all the model homes and available new homes listings prior to contract instead of only capturing the available and quick move in homes.
 
Try putting offers in on resales. I think you'll have better luck negotiating with someone who has to move/unload a home than trying for that much off from the builders.
 
Plenty of new construction, immediate move in stuff coming on line.

The time most sellers get wiggly on price is 30 days from list. When 1234 Main Street goes on sale Jan 5th for $500k, then 1235, 1236, and 1237 list at $499k, $495k, and $488k respectively every week thereafter, thats the kind of market when you know your Agent can make a low-ish offer on the better of these 4 properties.

This kinda stuff is USCTM and IR's wheelhouse, not mine. If you are making a low offer, just be "loan approved and ready to move" prior to asking the seller to take a 10% haircut off of their rainbow and unicorn list price. Great to make a low offer, better still to have it accepted, terrible though if you don't get your financing settled first.

My .02c
 
Soylent Green Is People said:
This kinda stuff is USCTM and IR's wheelhouse, not mine. If you are making a low offer, just be "loan approved and ready to move" prior to asking the seller to take a 10% haircut off of their rainbow and unicorn list price. Great to make a low offer, better still to have it accepted, terrible though if you don't get your financing settled first.
I just want to say that being "loan approved" **is** SGIP's wheelhouse and anyone looking to buy should go through that first.
 
Alright so here's a million dollar Irvine Secret for you guys, all these newly built constructions by Willow/Caritz and other companies, they DO NOT list all of their stuff on redfin/Mls as they don't want to sell these units for lower prices, its my personal experience as they barely list 1 unit and when you actually go in there and see 25 more will be ready in another 30 days, then you get a reality check, so this new flood of inventory is easily predictable, but by all means, don't expect the builder sales lady to give you free rides on low ballers as they still have buyers coming in and paying the asking price
 
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