Irvine homebuying down 11%

NonFCB said:
Suppose your Irvine house value is $1m now and the price goes down 10% next year as you wish. You lose $100k. Your dream $3m Laguna house may go down 15% next year due to lower affordability. You pay $450k less for such a house and your NET gain is $350k. The lower the Irvine market goes, the better for you to trade up. What a smart guy you are :) Our FCBs hope your dream comes true and they will be able to pick up a few cheap Irvine rental properties.

This concept of selling something at a profit is interesting. I'd like to subscribe to your newsletter.
 
IndieDev said:
I've seen it in my own career dealing with contacts and suppliers from West Africa to China.

This can't be true. Someone as obnoxious as you can't possible have contacts, suppliers and a career. I sure hope you don't act this way in front of those people. Actually, I guess you didn't say customers so maybe vendors will put up with the condescending and self righteousness of the "people's champ."

When it comes down to it since the beginning of 2011,
really? for a whole 4 months now?

I've lost money before once before
Wow, must be nice to only have made a mistake once. It must be the 12 and under training.

it simply exposes the psychology behind the people who are doing it.
So when you do it, what does it expose about you?
 
IndieDev said:
edhne said:
This can't be true. [followed by more make believe, personal attack]
Defensive response, exposes insecurity.

Wow, must be nice to only have made a mistake once. It must be the 12 and under training.
More of the same.

Yes, and IMO, it isn't cool and detracts from the board. So when you do it, what does it say about you?

Oh right, when you do it, it is just laying out the facts..when someone else does it, it is personal attacks.
 
@my buddy IndieDev:

Let's deal with facts:

1. I believe it was nonFCB who listed a few homes in Quail Hill and Turtle Ridge thread (http://www.talkirvine.com/index.php?topic=1570.0) and their values, to which your reply was:
Indie said:
I don't know why you think I'm biased, I actually own a fairly nice home in one of the neighborhoods you've been posting links about.
You prefaced your post in that manner to demonstrate that you are not biased against the high-end pricing of those areas and why you think they will drop. Considering that QH and TR were built during the bubble, if you own in any of those places, you paid a bubble price. So either a) you don't own in QH or TR or b) you were mistaken in claiming you owned in one of those neighborhoods.

I think you probably mixed up Turtle Rock with Turtle Ridge because of this:
Indie said:
- Backing to Culver (a 6 lane road in many places) isn't that bad a thing if you live in Turtle Ridge. It's special.
As far as I know, there aren't homes in Turtle Ridge that back Culver... but there are a bunch in Turtle Rock that do.

My guess is you own in an older neighborhood and if so, your original post regarding your personal knowledge of home values in QH/TR would be suspect considering you don't actually live there.

2. You'll disparage someone for "flashing their credentials", yet numerous times you mention your international dealings, your relationships with financial experts, your vast knowledge of fundamentals and your superior education... how is that different? You'll even tell us how $1000 is of little consequence to you so you can wager it at leisure. To be honest, I find more credence in someone who says they have certain degrees than someone who says "I just know better".  Seems like you are just as guilty of what you call "water cooler logic" as you claim others are because in reality, your background is just as "proven" as anyone else here.

3. If you don't want to admit that your posts contain "jabs" of personal nature towards other members here... than you may need to re-educate yourself in the fundamentals of forum discussions. And don't get me wrong, I'm not telling you to stop, it just seems funny when you get all  "holier than thou" when you start getting some of those things thrown back at you. We all know you post things in certain ways to get a reaction... so acting like a celebrity who feels that paparazzi shouldn't be taking pictures of them is a bit hypocritical.

4. I'm not sure if anyone accused you of using a HELOC, but since you are buying a beach property... wouldn't your same advice to people looking to buy in Irvine apply to you? It's a serious question because fundamentally, values in places like Laguna Beach, don't seem to support themselves.

5. There will always be times when the emotional aspect means more than the financial one. If we didn't have kids, we would probably have saved up enough money to buy our dream 3CWG... but I wouldn't trade them for any amount of money. I do hope you understand that.
 
qwerty said:
IHO vs Indie, now its on!
Don't get me wrong... I'm not looking to eFight with Indie... in fact, I wouldn't mind sitting down with him at 85? for some pastries and iced beverages so he can "learn me some econ" but I would like to establish that discussion here is a two-way street.

I actually agree with him on many things... although we may differ on the delivery (next-day air or 5-day ground shipping).

I'm just saying that if you like to dig, you're gonna get dirty.
 
edhne said:
Yes, and IMO, it isn't cool and detracts from the board. So when you do it, what does it say about you?

Oh right, when you do it, it is just laying out the facts..when someone else does it, it is personal attacks.

Here let me help you.

Fact (me): Irvine is a correcting market. We are solidly in a double dip in this city based on median home values.
Make Believe (you): A 40 year old house backing to Culver will rent profitable if it sells at $839,000.

That seems pretty black and white.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
You prefaced your post in that manner to demonstrate that you are not biased against the high-end pricing of those areas and why you think they will drop. Considering that QH and TR were built during the bubble, if you own in any of those places, you paid a bubble price. So either a) you don't own in QH or TR or b) you were mistaken in claiming you owned in one of those neighborhoods.

A rational conclusion, but where I live has nothing to do with the original post that started this thread of awesome; lcms2002 is wrong if he thinks "home ownership have better memories" than those who rent. I do well for myself, I own in a nice area of Irvine, that's the extent of what you need to know. Everything else just seems creepy and stalker-ish.

My guess is you own in an older neighborhood and if so, your original post regarding your personal knowledge of home values in QH/TR would be suspect considering you don't actually live there.

That's complete bologna, and I expect better from you IHO. You're making the claim that because I don't live in a specific neighborhood, I'm not able to give a reasonable valuation based on market factors and data? Do you realize how uneducated that sounds? Think about it seriously.

Seems like you are just as guilty of what you call "water cooler logic" as you claim others are because in reality, your background is just as "proven" as anyone else here.
The thing with "flashing credentials" on the internet is unless you meet the person, and verify it, it's impossible to confirm it. All I can do is read what people say and judge them on that. Some of the things you say are simply not grounded in rational economic thought. It's born of the same line of fantasy thought that creates statements like, "Irvine is different", "Home ownership is special." Complete fantasy water cooler discussion. I call a spade a spade, always have, always will.

If you don't want to admit that your posts contain "jabs" of personal nature towards other members here...
I've never denied that I've said some things that can be taken personally. I'm sorry that I've hurt your sensitive delicate ego. That being said, I just find it funny the Cheerleader crew is trying so desperately to invent or fabricate a life for my IndieDev persona. I think it's funny to me because I don't really care to explore the personal details of anyone's life on this board, I don't take things personally in business, or on the internet. But the simple fact that you, edhne, and others have been trying to write a fantasy novel about the background of my life shows that what I've said has personally had an effect on you, not entirely positive either. It's funny, yet sad, because I assumed that many of you were of adult age and were removed from the hyper sensitivity of children.  ;)

I'm not sure if anyone accused you of using a HELOC, but since you are buying a beach property... wouldn't your same advice to people looking to buy in Irvine apply to you

Of course, and like I told you before, depends on the price, and the property.

There will always be times when the emotional aspect means more than the financial one. If we didn't have kids, we would probably have saved up enough money to buy our dream 3CWG...
I can't really respect that comment. Blaming your inability to buy a 3 car garage home on your kids? You've certainly lost a bit of respect in my eyes with that comment. I understand what sentiment you were trying to create, but the way you phrased it just reeks of someone spineless and cowardly. That may not describe you, but this is the internet, and I can only form an opinion of the things you write.
 
qwerty said:
IHO vs Indie, now its on!
5687417629_2915597394_b.jpg

 
IndieDev said:
Blaming your inability to buy a 3 car garage home on your kids? You've certainly lost a bit of respect in my eyes with that comment. I understand what sentiment you were trying to create, but the way you phrased it just reeks of someone spineless and cowardly. That may not describe you, but this is the internet, and I can only form an opinion of the things you write.

lol...wtf do you have so such bitterness...do you really feel this type of PERSONAL statement against one of the more cordial posters really furthers your case that you only post about the "black and white facts?"

Nevermind, don't answer, who needs an answer when your posts on the internet tell us everything there is to know about you.
 
You commenting on "cordiality" is like Stephen Rotella commenting on loan underwriting standards. You of all people should understand the concept of cowardice when you offered "financial advice" to a new comer here, then failed to stand behind your own advice when I called you on your BS. You have yet to show any decency in this thread.

I stand by my statement that blaming your kids for not being able to have a "3CWG" is despicable. Kids don't choose to be here, you choose for them to be here. As I clarified in my post, it may not reflect IHO personally, but the statement itself is just disgusting.
 
Haha. I don't think IHO is "blaming" anything on the fact that he now has a family and other responsibilities to take care of. But ouch, spineless and cowardly? Hm I take it that you don't have any kids? Until then, market fundamentals would always your #1 priority.

That, and fighting interweb pride wars  ;)
 
Hiilarious... I guess the only way to get through to Indie is to invoke my own Indie-mode:
IndieDev said:
irvinehomeowner said:
You prefaced your post in that manner to demonstrate that you are not biased against the high-end pricing of those areas and why you think they will drop. Considering that QH and TR were built during the bubble, if you own in any of those places, you paid a bubble price. So either a) you don't own in QH or TR or b) you were mistaken in claiming you owned in one of those neighborhoods.

A rational conclusion, but where I live has nothing to do with the original post that started this thread of awesome; lcms2002 is wrong if he thinks "home ownership have better memories" than those who rent. I do well for myself, I own in a nice area of Irvine, that's the extent of what you need to know. Everything else just seems creepy and stalker-ish.

My guess is you own in an older neighborhood and if so, your original post regarding your personal knowledge of home values in QH/TR would be suspect considering you don't actually live there.

That's complete bologna, and I expect better from you IHO. You're making the claim that because I don't live in a specific neighborhood, I'm not able to give a reasonable valuation based on market factors and data? Do you realize how uneducated that sounds? Think about it seriously.
Nice deflection. But I didn't say where you lived had something to do with lcms' point... it has to do with my own point, you used the property you own to back up your valuation methods of a *specific area/property type*... but there is some question as to what property you actually own.

While you may be correct in *general* valuation data... the thread in question was specific in content... the value of QH or TRidge homes, which you claimed to have ownership in. Or are you saying that when a realtor gives you comps for QH or TRidge, that it's just as good to bring in older homes from TRock or Woodbridge? Or homes from Oak Creek? Do you think bank appraisals prefer to use more similar homes or less similar?

Again, the claim isn't that you don't have reasonable valuation methods, the claim is that YOU used that "fact" as basis for your argument against nonFCB (again... not against lcms), and if that "fact" is not true... than your basis is suspect.
Indie said:
Seems like you are just as guilty of what you call "water cooler logic" as you claim others are because in reality, your background is just as "proven" as anyone else here.
The thing with "flashing credentials" on the internet is unless you meet the person, and verify it, it's impossible to confirm it. All I can do is read what people say and judge them on that. Some of the things you say are simply not grounded in rational economic thought. It's born of the same line of fantasy thought that creates statements like, "Irvine is different", "Home ownership is special." Complete fantasy water cooler discussion. I call a spade a spade, always have, always will.
That's funny... you've more than once admitted that there are non-fundamentals in play that have slowed Irvine's drop in comparison to surrounding cities. Is a spade only a spade when *you* call it that? Tell me again about your "rational economic thought" that explains why the fundamentals are slower to act in Irvine.
Indie said:
If you don't want to admit that your posts contain "jabs" of personal nature towards other members here...
I've never denied that I've said some things that can be taken personally. I'm sorry that I've hurt your sensitive delicate ego.
Says the guy complaining about TMZ and his "fans"... seems like your ego is more sensitive than mine since you've more than once called me many names and I have yet to do so to you... so who is really the defensive one here?
Indie said:
That being said, I just find it funny the Cheerleader crew is trying so desperately to invent or fabricate a life for my IndieDev persona. I think it's funny to me because I don't really care to explore the personal details of anyone's life on this board...
Oh really? Pointing out where Starlight bought his home, where edhne lives, how much a home I can afford or the status of akim's escrow isn't personal? Those are just as personal as where you live and when you bought is it not?
Indie said:
I don't take things personally in business, or on the internet. But the simple fact that you, edhne, and others have been trying to write a fantasy novel about the background of my life shows that what I've said has personally had an effect on you, not entirely positive either. It's funny, yet sad, because I assumed that many of you were of adult age and were removed from the hyper sensitivity of children.  ;)
Talk about hyperbole, no one is writing a novel about you here. You probably have more posts referencing other people's lives/decisions than the other way around... are you sure you're not the hyper-sensitive one?
Indie said:
There will always be times when the emotional aspect means more than the financial one. If we didn't have kids, we would probably have saved up enough money to buy our dream 3CWG...
I can't really respect that comment. Blaming your inability to buy a 3 car garage home on your kids? You've certainly lost a bit of respect in my eyes with that comment. I understand what sentiment you were trying to create, but the way you phrased it just reeks of someone spineless and cowardly. That may not describe you, but this is the internet, and I can only form an opinion of the things you write.
LOL. Is that your best attempt in trying to get under my skin? I didn't blame anyone for anything... maybe you need to get your glasses checked... re-read my post again when you get back from LensCrafters.

The point is that there are some things that mean more than just the money you pay for them. I guess in your dollar sign only world... that concept doesn't exist. When your kids want you to buy a toy for them... do you explain to them the financial consequences of such a purchase?

"I'm sorry Indie Jr., I can't spend good money on that video game you want because there is no financial return from it. Just stare at your college fund balance some more instead."

Don't you find it ironic that you are calling people insecure or defensive because they are making up "fantasies" about you... but you seem to always resort to the insult route. Or are you claiming that "blaming my kids" is a fact... and not some fantasy you made up in your mind that you thought would have some impact on this thread. Notice how you tried to take it out of context by leaving off the "... but I wouldn't trade them for any amount of money." part. That alone blows away any "blame" you are trying to pin on that statement.

But I guess you read what you want to read... maybe you've thought of trading your own kids for some financial benefit... after all... you don't seem to put any importance on emotional attachments.

/IndieMode
 
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