Irvine Active MLS Inventory
- Thread starter sell4u
- Start date
Awesome, please keep these data coming. It would be nice if we know the monthly sales figure too.
At the inventory high, I remember around 2007-2008 Irvine's inventory reached over 800 listings but monthly sales was barely above 100 units. That's about 8 month worth of supply.
And at the inventory low, during late 2011 and early 2012, the inventory level dropped down to just a little over 200 units and sales volume was around 150/month. That's just 1.5 month of supply.
Under 5 month of supply = price goes up
Around 6 month = neutral
Over 7 month = price goes down
I'm guessing during the summer peak season, home sales are between 250-300 per month. And with 551 units for sales, that's about 2 month of supply. Still a very strong up market.
At the inventory high, I remember around 2007-2008 Irvine's inventory reached over 800 listings but monthly sales was barely above 100 units. That's about 8 month worth of supply.
And at the inventory low, during late 2011 and early 2012, the inventory level dropped down to just a little over 200 units and sales volume was around 150/month. That's just 1.5 month of supply.
Under 5 month of supply = price goes up
Around 6 month = neutral
Over 7 month = price goes down
I'm guessing during the summer peak season, home sales are between 250-300 per month. And with 551 units for sales, that's about 2 month of supply. Still a very strong up market.
Oh, one more thing.
Note that the MLS listings only list existing home and a few standing new home inventory that are listed on MLS.
The bulk of new construction homes are not counted toward the listing numbers. USCT like to call these the new shadow inventory. However the total monthly sales number do count these new construction home sales.
So when we try to calculate the realistic number of month worth of supplies, we need to add probably another 100 units to the monthly inventory in order to get a more accurate assessment.
I like to keep an eye on the month worth of supply since once we reached 6 month worth of of inventory, a housing slow down is coming.
Note that the MLS listings only list existing home and a few standing new home inventory that are listed on MLS.
The bulk of new construction homes are not counted toward the listing numbers. USCT like to call these the new shadow inventory. However the total monthly sales number do count these new construction home sales.
So when we try to calculate the realistic number of month worth of supplies, we need to add probably another 100 units to the monthly inventory in order to get a more accurate assessment.
I like to keep an eye on the month worth of supply since once we reached 6 month worth of of inventory, a housing slow down is coming.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
I see 541 active listings in Irvine right now on MLS but there is a lot more to it than that and you have to look a little deeper as it is a tale of 2 different markets. First off, there are new homes on MLS and second different priced homes are selling at different paces. The market is a bit split right now....$1m and under homes are selling fast and there is very little inventory on the market while there are a lot more $1m+ homes on the market and they are selling slower. If you exclude 2017 built homes there are only 507 active MLS listings and there are only 249 active MLS listings priced $1m or less. Now for the sales....there were 186 sales of $1m or less homes and only 70 sales of $1m+ homes in July 2017 (this was EXCLUDING homes built in 2017). As you can see, there is only about a 1.5 month supply of $1m or less homes and there is a 3.5 month supply of $1m+ homes. If you include the home price to $1.5m+ then you only had 24 sales in July 2017 while there are a whopping 141 active MLS listings prices $1.5m+ which translates to a 6 month supply of $1.5m+ homes on the market. If you include homes build in 2017 then it's 25 sales and 155 active listings taking you above 6 months of inventory. Obviously the lower in price you go the less inventory there is on the market...sub $800k is 1 month of inventory hence why most of those properties fly into escrow.
Overall, we haven't been much above 3 months supply of homes in Irvine in a long time and I don't think we'll get to 6 months for a long, long time. I think prices will be flat once we reach 4+ months of inventory but that isn't happening anytime soon either. One of the things that make be driving the lack of supply is that many move-up buyers who have low fixed interest rates on their smaller homes are deciding to rent them versus selling them (I'm doing more and more rental listings for these clients). The builders see the lack of inventory and know that they can keep increasing prices, especially in the sub $1m market, because there is very little competition and a lot of buyers in the price segment. Almost all of my sub $1m buyers face multiple offers on Irvine homes that they make an offer on.
Overall, we haven't been much above 3 months supply of homes in Irvine in a long time and I don't think we'll get to 6 months for a long, long time. I think prices will be flat once we reach 4+ months of inventory but that isn't happening anytime soon either. One of the things that make be driving the lack of supply is that many move-up buyers who have low fixed interest rates on their smaller homes are deciding to rent them versus selling them (I'm doing more and more rental listings for these clients). The builders see the lack of inventory and know that they can keep increasing prices, especially in the sub $1m market, because there is very little competition and a lot of buyers in the price segment. Almost all of my sub $1m buyers face multiple offers on Irvine homes that they make an offer on.
Hugo Township
Active member
Would love to see an update on this for September. Informative thread.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
HMart said:
531 active listings in MLS, including 38 homes that were built in 2017 (most all of these are new homes) and only 260 listings at $1,000,000 or less. We'll be below 500 active listings in the next 30 days as selling season ends this weekend.
nosuchreality
Well-known member
USCTrojanCPA said:
How's it work out when you break it out by listing age? Have 30-40% of those listings been sitting for more that 60 days with a make me move price?
So you're really looking at 160 so unit below a million on market?
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
nosuchreality said:
224 listings 0-30 days
138 listings 31-60 days
58 listings 61-90 days
131 listings 91+ days
For homes $1m or less
143 listings 0-30 days
62 listings 31-60 days
24 listings 61-90 days
34 listings 91+ days
nosuchreality
Well-known member
Not as bad as I expected I guess. North Tustin seems worse, may actually be better. I see the same homes sitting. And sitting. And sitting. New homes pop up and are sold. Seemingly in the time it takes to read that sentence. Or they don't. And they sit. And sit.
The commonality seems to be they take the already hyper competitive sales price of 'comps' and jack in another price jump on top of it regardless of the obvious flaws that need to be addressed on the property.
Still not many that are 90+ days, that's literally went up for sale first days of June and sat the entire summer.
The commonality seems to be they take the already hyper competitive sales price of 'comps' and jack in another price jump on top of it regardless of the obvious flaws that need to be addressed on the property.
Still not many that are 90+ days, that's literally went up for sale first days of June and sat the entire summer.
If the home is delisted and relisted again, it reset the number of days count on the MLS right?
There are quite a few homes that has been on sale for a while but also has been delisted and relisted several times. Its more prevalent in the over $1M properties so I think the number of day on the market for these over $1M home are slightly higher than the data shown.
There are quite a few homes that has been on sale for a while but also has been delisted and relisted several times. Its more prevalent in the over $1M properties so I think the number of day on the market for these over $1M home are slightly higher than the data shown.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
lnc said:
Yes and no, there's DOM (days on market) an then there is CDOM (cumulative days on market). When you de-list and re-list within 90 days you reset DOM but not CDOM. As I mentioned before, the sub $1m market is considerably stronger and sells faster than the $1m+ market and that's mainly because there are a lot more sub $1m buyers than $1m+ buyers.
nosuchreality
Well-known member
Is stronger a bit of an understatement? Is the under a million market basically sub 1 month of inventory? What the over million market two or three?
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
nosuchreality said:
The sub $1m market is about 1 to 1.5 month's worth of inventory while the $1m+ market is over 3+ month's worth of inventory. The $1.5m+ market is even worse, more like 5-6 months of inventory.
nosuchreality
Well-known member
USCTrojanCPA said:
So basically, the $1.5M+ market is balanced power between sellers and buyers.
The $1M-$1.5M is a sellers market and fairly strong one.
and the sub $1M market is red hot.
My_Alter_Ego
New member
USCTrojanCPA said:
Hey Martin - I saw you at Calistoga this afternoon. Looking good! Aren't those homes almost all sold out?
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
My_Alter_Ego said:
Yeah I was making the rounds registering a client at the various homes in Eastwood, they only have 4 non-model homes left...2 Plan 2s and 2 Plan 3s I believe.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
nosuchreality said:
I'd break it down further than that...
sub $800k red hot
$800k-$1m strong sellers market
$1-$1.25m weak sellers market
$1.25m-$1.5 neutral market
$1.5m+ weak buyers market (trophy properties go fast though)
Sub 750K - White hot (avg Joe's only shot at Irvine)
750K - 900K - Price reductions, but will usually sell after 1 reduction
900K - 1.5M - Sitting longer and running on fumes (price reductions)
1.5M - 3M - The money isn't coming anymore.
3M+ - Why aren't they buying on the coast?
750K - 900K - Price reductions, but will usually sell after 1 reduction
900K - 1.5M - Sitting longer and running on fumes (price reductions)
1.5M - 3M - The money isn't coming anymore.
3M+ - Why aren't they buying on the coast?