Inventory keeps drying up...

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usctrojancpa

usctrojancpa

Well-known member
As of about an hour ago, we are officially down to 424 active listings in Irvine on MLS which puts us at basically 2 months of inventory.  The super agents need to take it to the next level and get us some more listings.  >:D  Instead of having the number of listings increase in the Spring and Summer selling season, the opposite is happening so that come the slow season we could be down to about 1 month of inventory if the trend continues.  :-\  From what I can see it seems that standard sellers don't want to list their homes for sale which will cause William Lyon and the rest of the builders to raise their prices.  >:(
 
what i have noticed in turtle rock is that a certain realtor seems to be listing his houses way above where the market is closing, perhaps hoping that the buyer will bite due to the lack of inventory. however, i also noticed that not many people are buying into that so the prices seem to be dripping down, slowly.  seems like the buyers are also not chasing the price up too much despite the lack of inventory.
 
ninja88 said:
what i have noticed in turtle rock is that a certain realtor seems to be listing his houses way above where the market is closing, perhaps hoping that the buyer will bite due to the lack of inventory. however, i also noticed that not many people are buying into that so the prices seem to be dripping down, slowly.  seems like the buyers are also not chasing the price up too much despite the lack of inventory.
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Yeah, I see random new listings where sellers are asking for stupid prices and those listings are just lingering on the market because buyers won't bite.  So buyers are restraining themselves for the most part when it comes to bidding up above comps but when a nice property hits the market that shows well you'll get multiple offers on it and it will sell for a little bit above comps. 
 
About those multiple offers.... have you experienced this?

Co-worker at my office is a preferred lender for a Mission Viejo area Realtor. That Agent has a listing in the $400k range. 10+ offers within 5 days. Offer 1 bounced due to inspection issues. Offer 2 bounced because of appraisal issues. Offer 3 bounced because of a very low income ($20k per year trying to buy a $400k priced home.... WTF is that person doing writing offers?)

I know that there are some buyers putting 2-3 offers out on 2-3 different properties simultaneously adding to the "multiple offer on new listing" meme.

How realistic are some of the offers then is the question?

My .02c
 
Soylent Green Is People said:
About those multiple offers.... have you experienced this?

Co-worker at my office is a preferred lender for a Mission Viejo area Realtor. That Agent has a listing in the $400k range. 10+ offers within 5 days. Offer 1 bounced due to inspection issues. Offer 2 bounced because of appraisal issues. Offer 3 bounced because of a very low income ($20k per year trying to buy a $400k priced home.... WTF is that person doing writing offers?)

I know that there are some buyers putting 2-3 offers out on 2-3 different properties simultaneously adding to the "multiple offer on new listing" meme.

How realistic are some of the offers then is the question?

My .02c
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I can see buyers playing the percentages and throwing out offers on more than one home at the same time (kinda like kids applying for college).  My recent experience was with this property:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/87-Legacy-Way-92602/home/4792885

My buyer submitted $660k and then upped it to $668k on the multiple counter (5 total offers) and still couldn't get the house.  Comps for that house were $650k-$660k.
 
this was another open house we went to, single story, 2,200 sq ft, they want 869K
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/6-Riveroaks-92602/home/5858510

i think this qualifies as a WTF, while it is WTF, the house is in great condition. it sold for 536K in February of 2003, using 20% appreciation per year, which i believe was the average during the bubble, puts it at about 850K towards the end of 2005. damn.
 
We never did buy in San Mateo. And recently we bid on a few homes. In order to actual buy these homes I think we would have to bid higher than the asking price. Most homes we bid on had multiple bidders. If you bid lower than asking price you basically aren't considered. And the homes that are decently priced are off the market in a few days so it's hard to even place a bid. Even if you are first to offer doesn?t mean much either. Some owners have crazy contingencies or are asking you to remove contingencies. We just started bidding actively again and it feels a bit crazy out there.
 
The banks and the govt are not putting properties on the market, thus they are artificially creating low inventory.

If there is a good deal it gets snatched up in days by an all cash buyer.

I looked at a property that had 48 offers in 3 days and sold for 65,000 cash over asking price.
 
We recently bid on a house in University Park with over 20 offers in the first round. Of these over 20 offers, 7 of us received a counter at 65,000 above listing, 25% down and to waive the appraisal contingencies. 5 of us accepted the counteroffer fully so the seller wanted us to provide them with final and best. We dropped out at this point.  This house was just not worth the WTF price that it got bid up to and the seller knew it was not going to appraise, hence requiring buyer to waive appraisal contingency and put up more down.
 
Its the unintended consequences of low interest rates and investor demand - AKA:

11) Why should I move and pay a higher price when I'm perfectly confortable with my sub 4% rate and payment?

2) Why should I sell my rental property when I can jack market rental rates up to what the market will bear?

and of course the icing on the cake:

3) Why should I give my house back to the bank? They haven't forclosed on me after 3 years of not making my payment!

 
Soylent Green Is People said:
Its the unintended consequences of low interest rates and investor demand - AKA:

11) Why should I move and pay a higher price when I'm perfectly confortable with my sub 4% rate and payment?

2) Why should I sell my rental property when I can jack market rental rates up to what the market will bear?

and of course the icing on the cake:

3) Why should I give my house back to the bank? They haven't forclosed on me after 3 years of not making my payment!
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Perfect summary of the current situation.  Hell, even us underwater landlords can refi into these low rates.  Low rates for everyone (lower for some than others). 
 
how do underwater folks refi into low rates?  i know there are programs for homeowners but didnt think investors had access to them
 
rkp said:
how do underwater folks refi into low rates?  i know there are programs for homeowners but didnt think investors had access to them
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Earlier this year, the gov't started the HARP 2.0 program which allowed any homeowner AND owners of rental properties to refi a mortgage with an unlimited loan-to-value (appraisals normally waived).  So all those folks that who didn't have 20%+ equity were and are able to refinance to the current loan rates.  Price adjustments are limited to 2pts for these loans. 
 
Even the number of active short sale listings on MLS has dried up.  Only 27 of 390 as of 4:30pm.  Looks like that HARP 2.0 refi program had an effect.
 
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