Inland Empire (Kaboom!)

[quote author="EvaLSeraphim" date=1219015305]Is <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/land-value-101/">this the one</a> you are talking about?</blockquote>


Yup, that is the one. I need to add that one to the newbies thread too. I also found out that none of the links for IR's recommended reading in the newbies thread worked. So I fixed them. Thanks EvaL for finding that. Next time I will just go to the analysis link to find it, duh and I am a moderator, I should know better.
 
So, I guess the follow up question will be. Is there a pricing floor? Is there a risk-free fair market price for any given property? If land values can go negative, which I did not know, then technically there is no limit to how far a property might drop. I thought another good indicator to see if which a property has bottom out is looking at the cost of replacement; or the price of the improvements, as building materials and commodities rise so does your property
 
[quote author="roundcorners" date=1219104406]So, I guess the follow up question will be. Is there a pricing floor? Is there a risk-free fair market price for any given property? If land values can go negative, which I did not know, then technically there is no limit to how far a property might drop. I thought another good indicator to see if which a property has bottom out is looking at the cost of replacement; or the price of the improvements, as building materials and commodities rise so does your property</blockquote>


The answer to your question is posted in another thread <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/128/P2900/#65073">here.</a>



Several things come to play: rents, inflation, commutes, jobs, taxes, design, crime, etc.



But the simple fact is previous value, construction costs, have absolutely no sway when other systemic factors come to play. Do you want to cool a 3500sf home in Murrieta when electricity costs sky rocket next year? Commute daily from Riverside if gas returns to $5/gal?



Similarly, your HOA may bust you out. The HOA is dependent on 90% paying on time. The high rises and new developments may run into problems and that becomes it's own problem.





For example, there used to be properties on Redfin listed in Tustin near the 55, the land lease was in court and because it was, 4 bedroom townhomes were listed at $80,000. The problem with land leases and HOAs are they are obligated payments for the owner, changes can have profound impacts to your value.



A home is dependent on the community it is connected to. Disrupt that connection and the house value may literally become negative, much like the example in Detroit above where the bank paid $10,000, including the closing costs, inspection, taxes and utilities to have the person buy it for $1.
 
Heard this on the radio today<a href="http://www.drhortonzero.com/">From DR Horton</a> for communites in the <a href="http://www.drhorton.com/corp/FindHome.do?state=5&metroId=58&Search=Submit">Inland Empire</a>:



<strong>$0 Down and $0 Closing Costs Plus below market 30-year fixed financing. </strong>



<em>There are a lot of builders saying zero this and zero that, but it?s what comes with our zero that makes it

special. Not only are we offering zero down and zero closing costs, but for a limited time we are also offering

below market 30-year fixed rate financing to qualified buyers. Simply put, we zero in on the BEST price in our

communities AND you get the satisfaction of owning a home by D.R. Horton, America?s Builder.</em>
 
[quote author="BethN" date=1219044453]Inland Empire...aka...Inbred turdpile.</blockquote>


On that note, here's the IE house I grew up in, still on the market after forever, listed at a discount of 56% off peak price:



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Bernardino/6265-Chiquita-Ln-92404/home/3056764">Chiquita Lane in Berdooky</a>
 
at least they drained the pool, look at the mosquito factory behind it!



that said, how is it that san bernadino has streetview while the whole west side of costa mesa still lacks it?



sheesh
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1219121961]at least they drained the pool, look at the mosquito factory behind it!



that said, how is it that san bernadino has streetview while the whole west side of costa mesa still lacks it?



sheesh</blockquote>


Us inbreeders have some pull with Google it would appear...
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1219127404][quote author="freedomCM" date=1219121961]at least they drained the pool, look at the mosquito factory behind it!



that said, how is it that san bernadino has streetview while the whole west side of costa mesa still lacks it?



sheesh</blockquote>


Us inbreeders have some pull with Google it would appear...</blockquote>


Nah... just easier access to meth, they knocked out San Berdo in a week long Googlemeth binge.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1219128501][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1219127404][quote author="freedomCM" date=1219121961]at least they drained the pool, look at the mosquito factory behind it!



that said, how is it that san bernadino has streetview while the whole west side of costa mesa still lacks it?



sheesh</blockquote>


Us inbreeders have some pull with Google it would appear...</blockquote>


Nah... just easier access to meth, they knocked out San Berdo in a week long Googlemeth binge.</blockquote>


It wasn't that easy to get in when I was there. Market dynamics must have improved quite a bit since the 80's...
 
[quote author="MalibuRenter" date=1219481448]The price declines in Palm Springs are shocking. Here is a <strong>1991 rollback!</strong> Yes, 1991. http://www.redfin.com/CA/Palm-Springs/481-W-Sunview-Ave-92262/home/6044211</blockquote>


Dude, that house was a double bubble participant...



Sales History



Date Price Appreciation

Jul 01, 1988 $6,500



Jun 28, 1991 $65,500 116.6%/yr



Sep 27, 2007 $216,750 7.6%/yr



The buyer in 91 probably saw the value tank to $30k in 1996, at least he/she remembered the last bubble and cashed out, er got foreclosed on.
 
Speaking of Palm Springs.....look at this adorable bungalow I just spotted. Unusual to find a bungalow there.....



<img src="http://i-0.rfimg.us/photo/43/bigphoto/838/41308838_3.jpg" alt="" />



omg, somebody stop me !!!



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Palm-Springs/566-S-Calle-Santa-Rosa-92264/home/5692050">I WANT !!</a>
 
[quote author="Trooper" date=1219498467]Speaking of Palm Springs.....look at this adorable bungalow I just spotted. Unusual to find a bungalow there.....



<img src="http://i-0.rfimg.us/photo/43/bigphoto/838/41308838_3.jpg" alt="" />



omg, somebody stop me !!!



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Palm-Springs/566-S-Calle-Santa-Rosa-92264/home/5692050">I WANT !!</a></blockquote>


Troop! Are we going to have to block your Redfin access? Step away from the RE/MLS sites, just walk away, and feel free to rant here. Gawd knows we need someone else other than me.
 
[quote author="Trooper" date=1219498467]Speaking of Palm Springs.....look at this adorable bungalow I just spotted. Unusual to find a bungalow there.....



<img src="http://i-0.rfimg.us/photo/43/bigphoto/838/41308838_3.jpg" alt="" />



omg, somebody stop me !!!



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Palm-Springs/566-S-Calle-Santa-Rosa-92264/home/5692050">I WANT !!</a></blockquote>
Troop, that house is adorable. I love the front porch.
 
[quote author="MalibuRenter" date=1219481448]The price declines in Palm Springs are shocking. Here is a <strong>1991 rollback!</strong> Yes, 1991. http://www.redfin.com/CA/Palm-Springs/481-W-Sunview-Ave-92262/home/6044211</blockquote>
well - from the ad: <blockquote>Fixer ... needs kitchen, HVAC and other systems. ... Unlikely to get lender financing</blockquote>
Sounds like it's basically a teardown and you're just buying the lot.
 
[quote author="Trooper" date=1219498467]Speaking of Palm Springs.....look at this adorable bungalow I just spotted. Unusual to find a bungalow there.....



<img src="http://i-0.rfimg.us/photo/43/bigphoto/838/41308838_3.jpg" alt="" />



omg, somebody stop me !!!



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Palm-Springs/566-S-Calle-Santa-Rosa-92264/home/5692050">I WANT !!</a></blockquote>


That is absolutely adorable and on an R2 lot walking distance to downtown, no less. Is $229K a lot for that?
 
Step, I'm not really sure what the land value is. A quick check of CL turned this up....it's an R-2 as well and not much further away than the little bungalow.



<a href="http://palmsprings.craigslist.org/reb/809580223.html">PS Lot .23 ac</a>
 
It is adorable, just subtract enough to buy a kitchen, and you will

have the kitchen of your dreams.



Go for it.



I had to rip the entire kitchen out of this house; we spent carefully

and it was not a bad experience at all.
 
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