IHB needs a resident bull on board

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
LOL, John quotes Lawrence Yun, John is the trusted source in RE, John uses fancy charts, John has no clue about economics, John ignores the specuflippers, John sounds like Gary Watts in 2005. Smart people have figured out he is the nutter, and people like us are realistic. Thanks for the laugh Anon,this is proof the pacific northwest is next to have their bubble burst.
 
Kill me now . . . please kill me now. . .

4 million marriage and 8 million babies equals rebound in home selling.

www.cnbc.com/id/15840232

Why do none of the "analysts"/"experts" ever talk about down payment? 20 percent! Where are people going to get 20 percent to get a loan? An average house in Irvine still costs about $600K . Where in the world is an "average" household going to get $120K for a downpayment?
 
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/market-crash-1987s-offing/story.aspx?guid=%7BC34E308D%2D1D8F%2D468C%2D98D4%2DC43B017EA6F9%7D&dist=TNMostRead

The great myth is that individual Americans were reaping the windfall benefit of absurdly low interest rates on their mortgages. This belies the fact that not only are the borrowers' mortgage loans secured with their own homes, but the average adjustable-rate subprime mortgage borrower is paying a 9% interest rate. That hefty consumer cost has produced, and is still largely producing, a lot of annual profit for the loan financiers. In the long run, these yields will offset all of the defaults, and in a very real sense the current default losses are simply one of the foreseeable costs of making the higher-risk loans in the first place."
 
Best and Worst Places to Buy a House: Whether you're looking for an investment property or a place to live, here's a look at the cities you should seek out and avoid in 2008.

http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/104278/Best-and-Worst-Places-to-Buy-a-House;_ylt=At9a_yUdsybI_oPKR6bNTgG7YWsA

The Top Places to Buy

Whether you're an investor like me or you're looking to purchase that next move up, here are my picks for the best areas to buy a home:

...

Mission Viejo, California: Mission Viejo has the lowest crime statistics in the nation. With no murders in 2007 and a low rate of violent crime, this is a good place to raise a family. Prices are relatively stable, and the job market in the nearby cities of Irvine and San Diego means there is consistent demand from job seekers.
 
That commute from MV to Sandy Eggo is a cakewalk. Its only what, three or four hours one way at traffic time?

Why didn't he just pick Temecula instead? At least you could of made some sense of that argument if you've got access to google maps.

Fing donkey.
 
Conforming loan limit legislation

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/01/conforming-loan-limit-legislation.html

NA-AP203A_CONFO_20080124235643.gif
 
Housing prices to free fall in 2008 - Merrill

According to a Merrill Lynch report, home prices will drop 15 percent this year, and declines will continue in 2009.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/23/real_estate/merrill_forecast/index.htm

"Merrill Lynch's figures are way too pessimistic, and they are unprecedented," Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtors chief economist told CNNMoney.com. "There is so much variation in local housing markets, and we see stable price conditions for 2008."
 
I just saw a NAR ad which emphasized the warm and fuzzies of buying a house for your family and only at the end said you'd make money if you owned the house a long time.
 
Greenspan on the defensive

Former Fed chairman defends subprime mortgages, says market near bottom

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20080125.RGREENSPAN25/TPStory/Business

The biggest barrier to stabilizing the chaotic U.S. housing market is the oversupply of homes that cash-strapped builders are flogging at rock-bottom prices, former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan says.

"If there were some kind of alchemy whereby we could pick up all these 300,000 units, that would stabilize the markets," Mr. Greenspan told a Vancouver audience yesterday. He was referring to the number of homes in the U.S. that were estimated to be under or near construction when the subprime mortgage market began to unravel.

With those homes subject to vandalism and requiring expensive upkeep, builders are desperate to clear out the inventory, he said, saying that the prolonged slump could be nearing its end.

"We may be close to a point where actual sales levels are starting to bottom," he said. "We don't have to get rid of it all, we do have to get to maximum rate of liquidation."
 
Oh, goddess, I thought that Greenspan was at least smart. This is just the stupidest comment I've heard yet.

Why not torch them then? Why not plow them under? Why not have the govmint buy them all and hand them over to homeless families, if that's all it takes? Inventory gone, and all our problems solved.

Like depression farmers being paid to plow under their field and pour milk out?

Grrrrrrrrrrr . . . . . .
 
Perhaps Greenspan's referring to the new home construction bottom? Not the house price bottom?

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/04/when-will-housing-market-bottom.html
 
I have pretty much lost interest in what Greenspan has to say. I think he has kind of reached a "crazy Uncle" status. You know, the guy that comes over for Thanksgiving, drinks too much and starts making outrageous claims like he invented the question mark.
 
Per Greenspan - honestly, all I care about is why people say what they say (ie. what logic they are using), not who said it. If Yun said some bullish things, yet they all made sense to me, then I'd believe it. Conversely, if Schiller said something, but I didn't believe it made sense, then I wouldn't believe it. I keep posting the bullish POV's here, so we can all keep an ear open to see if anything they say makes sense, so we don't miss the upturn by always listening to bears.

Housing Market Gives Hints of a Thaw

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/26/business/yourmoney/26mortgage.html?em&ex=1201582800&en=0eaa68902ac482e2&ei=5087%0A
 
Here's a translation of what Greenspan said:

"If I had a magic wand and could vaporize 300K in in inventory units, we could stablize the market"

Well, DUH. Don't diss Alan.
 
Ah, nothing like a deceptive headline (blame the columnist on this one, not the copy editor since it's a blog). If you read on you see that the number of homes in escrow is still 37% below last year.
 
But reasonable people expected a bounce!

The volumes are unsustainablly low. Somebody has to sell in any given market, and somebody has to buy.

Job change, death, divorce.............that sort of "has to..........." motovation.
 
Why does someone have to buy now? It is as logical as when people kept saying that prices will not come down and that they are not make any more land. The only reason why you had a run up like we did is because people were basically paying rent to live in a house. Who would not want that deal? As pointed by IR in the blog and the realtor in the 60 minutes report, people basically got to live in a house for two years and even got some cash out before walking away from their house. It is sweet deal.

Yes, there will always be buyers but the problem is there are not enough of them to keep the prices high. I am sure that there were people buying houses during the Great Depression but that did not mean that it was a good time.
 
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