IHB: Hopeful Few or Swallowed Up By Hopeless Many?

[quote author="Geotpf" date=1241533275]



Exactly. A rather large number of jobs in Orange County are held by people who don't live in Orange County, but who live in Riverside County, and almost nobody commutes the other way around.</blockquote>


My mistake :) Keep the flaming coming.
 
[quote author="Geotpf" date=1241573186][quote author="halfnote19" date=1241564139]I personally know about 10 people who either just bought or are going to buy in the next few months.

Every single one of them thinks that this is it, we hit bottom and its not going to go any lower.</blockquote>


Bah. Irvine is nowhere near the bottom. The Inland Empire might be close, but Irvine sure ain't.</blockquote>
Can any area surrounding a slow-bottoming area be close or at bottom?



If you think IE is cheap now... wait until Irvine is really at bottom... houses in IE might be free.
 
[quote author="no_vaseline" date=1241552177][quote author="freedomCM" date=1241525462]ever see the 91 at rush hour?</blockquote>


Ever been inside a turkish prision?</blockquote>


Oooh, ooh! I'll play.... Have you ever seen a grown man naked?
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1241573017][quote author="halfnote19" date=1241564139]I personally know about 10 people who either just bought or are going to buy in the next few months.

Every single one of them thinks that this is it, we hit bottom and its not going to go any lower.</blockquote>


I hope they have several years of cash reserves.</blockquote>


Nope, these are mid to late 20 something people who don't remember what housing really should cost.
 
[quote author="Irvine_Lurker" date=1241578547][quote author="no_vaseline" date=1241552177][quote author="freedomCM" date=1241525462]ever see the 91 at rush hour?</blockquote>


Ever been inside a turkish prision?</blockquote>


Oooh, ooh! I'll play.... Have you ever seen a grown man naked?</blockquote>


Jimmy, do you like movies about gladiators?
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1241577451][quote author="Geotpf" date=1241573186][quote author="halfnote19" date=1241564139]I personally know about 10 people who either just bought or are going to buy in the next few months.

Every single one of them thinks that this is it, we hit bottom and its not going to go any lower.</blockquote>


Bah. Irvine is nowhere near the bottom. The Inland Empire might be close, but Irvine sure ain't.</blockquote>
Can any area surrounding a slow-bottoming area be close or at bottom?



If you think IE is cheap now... wait until Irvine is really at bottom... houses in IE might be free.</blockquote>


I think it's more due to price than location. The cheaper the location, the quicker it hit bottom. That is, Irvine is expensive, therefore it's taking longer to hit the bottom. The IE is cheap, therefore it went down quicker. This happens in the same location too-the cheaper properties in any particular area dropped quicker than the more expensive ones in the same area.



As for the whole "free" bit, this will happen to a small bit, in really bad parts of town (and in weird situations like the thing in Victorville where the bank tore down brand new houses). But the IE ain't gonna turn into Detroit.
 
[quote author="Geotpf" date=1241588540][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1241577451][quote author="Geotpf" date=1241573186][quote author="halfnote19" date=1241564139]I personally know about 10 people who either just bought or are going to buy in the next few months.

Every single one of them thinks that this is it, we hit bottom and its not going to go any lower.</blockquote>


Bah. Irvine is nowhere near the bottom. The Inland Empire might be close, but Irvine sure ain't.</blockquote>
Can any area surrounding a slow-bottoming area be close or at bottom?



If you think IE is cheap now... wait until Irvine is really at bottom... houses in IE might be free.</blockquote>


I think it's more due to price than location. The cheaper the location, the quicker it hit bottom. That is, Irvine is expensive, therefore it's taking longer to hit the bottom. The IE is cheap, therefore it went down quicker. This happens in the same location too-the cheaper properties in any particular area dropped quicker than the more expensive ones in the same area.



As for the whole "free" bit, this will happen to a small bit, in really bad parts of town (and in weird situations like the thing in Victorville where the bank tore down brand new houses). <strong>But the IE ain't gonna turn into Detroit.</strong></blockquote>


It better not. The Redwings suck.
 
[quote author="Goofy" date=1241590453][quote author="Geotpf" date=1241588540][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1241577451][quote author="Geotpf" date=1241573186][quote author="halfnote19" date=1241564139]I personally know about 10 people who either just bought or are going to buy in the next few months.

Every single one of them thinks that this is it, we hit bottom and its not going to go any lower.</blockquote>


Bah. Irvine is nowhere near the bottom. The Inland Empire might be close, but Irvine sure ain't.</blockquote>
Can any area surrounding a slow-bottoming area be close or at bottom?



If you think IE is cheap now... wait until Irvine is really at bottom... houses in IE might be free.</blockquote>


I think it's more due to price than location. The cheaper the location, the quicker it hit bottom. That is, Irvine is expensive, therefore it's taking longer to hit the bottom. The IE is cheap, therefore it went down quicker. This happens in the same location too-the cheaper properties in any particular area dropped quicker than the more expensive ones in the same area.



As for the whole "free" bit, this will happen to a small bit, in really bad parts of town (and in weird situations like the thing in Victorville where the bank tore down brand new houses). <strong>But the IE ain't gonna turn into Detroit.</strong></blockquote>


It better not. The Redwings suck.</blockquote>


Yeah but maybe <a href="http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-demolish5-2009may05,0,4930126.story">Victorville will.</a>
 
Bren will not let Irvine hit bottom. His asset is riding on land prices.



I like to share my story with you. In 1995 during the last recession I was waiting for the market to hit bottom and I waited for the best deal to come. A project called Civita in Newport Coast was $459,000 at $210/sf. I was waiting for $120/sf as projected. I missed my opportunity. The same home was sold in 2005 for 2.1 million.



That same year Mahogany was priced $398,000 for the plan 1 ($153/sf) and I waited too and I passed thinking that price would come down and TIC would re-adjust prices. The same plan was sold over $2 mil.



Then in 1998 when Taylor Woodrow opened Maravilla in San Juan hills. The homes were $298,000 for 2,600 sf ($115/sf). I figured in South County there should be a significant discount not being in Irvine. This home was sold for $1.9 million later.



I was looking for the best deal back then trying to squeeze every nickel and dimes out of the deal and I missed my opportunities.



We are in a very different climate compared to the last recession. Waiting for the absolute bottom as projected like I did never came.
 
As bkshopr is saying, timing the bottom will be very difficult. Even if parity is not there, prices do not have to fall down. Prices can flatline as rent increases over time or mortgage rates go down. I however, think rates will go up due to inflation which will lead to higher rates but I do not know how inflation affected rental rates historically. My gut feeling is inflation drives rental rates up.



But since housing is such a finance based asset- roughly 2/3 homes have a mortgage. You would think higher rates mean lower prices but what does that do to rents?
 
[quote author="bkshopr" date=1241593113]Bren will not let Irvine hit bottom. His asset is riding on land prices.



I like to share my story with you. In 1995 during the last recession I was waiting for the market to hit bottom and I waited for the best deal to come. A project called Civita in Newport Coast was $459,000 at $210/sf. I was waiting for $120/sf as projected. I missed my opportunity. The same home was sold in 2005 for 2.1 million.



That same year Mahogany was priced $398,000 for the plan 1 ($153/sf) and I waited too and I passed thinking that price would come down and TIC would re-adjust prices. The same plan was sold over $2 mil.



Then in 1998 when Taylor Woodrow opened Maravilla in San Juan hills. The homes were $298,000 for 2,600 sf ($115/sf). I figured in South County there should be a significant discount not being in Irvine. This home was sold for $1.9 million later.



I was looking for the best deal back then trying to squeeze every nickel and dimes out of the deal and I missed my opportunities.



We are in a very different climate compared to the last recession. Waiting for the absolute bottom as projected like I did never came.</blockquote>


Perhaps we should all buy now or be priced out forever...
 
[quote author="Geotpf" date=1241588540][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1241577451][quote author="Geotpf" date=1241573186][quote author="halfnote19" date=1241564139]I personally know about 10 people who either just bought or are going to buy in the next few months.

Every single one of them thinks that this is it, we hit bottom and its not going to go any lower.</blockquote>


Bah. Irvine is nowhere near the bottom. The Inland Empire might be close, but Irvine sure ain't.</blockquote>
Can any area surrounding a slow-bottoming area be close or at bottom?



If you think IE is cheap now... wait until Irvine is really at bottom... houses in IE might be free.</blockquote>


I think it's more due to price than location. The cheaper the location, the quicker it hit bottom. That is, Irvine is expensive, therefore it's taking longer to hit the bottom. The IE is cheap, therefore it went down quicker. This happens in the same location too-the cheaper properties in any particular area dropped quicker than the more expensive ones in the same area.

</blockquote>
I believe we are saying the same thing... in real estate... location usually correlates to price.



What I'm asking is will IE flatten out or even go lower while we are waiting for Irvine to bottom? I think it will go lower... everyone bought in the outer lying areas because prices were way too high in the more desireable locations... once pricing gets to be reasonable... why would anyone buy out there anymore?



This is like bodyboarding... I think I see a wave... I hope I can ride it in.
 
My caution for everyone is not to set high hope on new homes in Irvine because they will not reach rent parity. Resales at this time lack bench mark pricing. Greedy home sellers will revise once they learn of TIC's bench mark. Wait for the last moment to buy a resale before TIC unveils its new products.
 
[quote author="bkshopr" date=1241593113]Bren will not let Irvine hit bottom. His asset is riding on land prices.



Then in <b>1998</b> when Taylor Woodrow opened Maravilla in San Juan hills. The homes were $298,000 for 2,600 sf ($115/sf). I figured in South County there should be a significant discount not being in Irvine. This home was sold for $1.9 million later.



We are in a very different climate compared to the last recession. Waiting for the absolute bottom as projected like I did never came.</blockquote>




"The Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, also known as the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Financial Services Modernization Act, (Pub.L. 106-102, 113 Stat. 1338, enacted November 12, <b>1999</b>) is an Act of the 106th United States Congress (1999-2001) which repealed part of the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933, opening up competition among banks, securities companies and insurance companies. The Glass-Steagall Act prohibited any one institution from acting as both an investment bank and a commercial bank, or as both a bank and an insurer."



<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gramm-Leach-Bliley_Act">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gramm-Leach-Bliley_Act</a>
 
[quote author="bkshopr" date=1241593113]Bren will not let Irvine hit bottom. His asset is riding on land prices.



I like to share my story with you. In 1995 during the last recession I was waiting for the market to hit bottom and I waited for the best deal to come. A project called Civita in Newport Coast was $459,000 at $210/sf. I was waiting for $120/sf as projected. I missed my opportunity. The same home was sold in 2005 for 2.1 million.



That same year Mahogany was priced $398,000 for the plan 1 ($153/sf) and I waited too and I passed thinking that price would come down and TIC would re-adjust prices. The same plan was sold over $2 mil.



Then in 1998 when Taylor Woodrow opened Maravilla in San Juan hills. The homes were $298,000 for 2,600 sf ($115/sf). I figured in South County there should be a significant discount not being in Irvine. This home was sold for $1.9 million later.



I was looking for the best deal back then trying to squeeze every nickel and dimes out of the deal and I missed my opportunities.



We are in a very different climate compared to the last recession. Waiting for the absolute bottom as projected like I did never came.</blockquote>
I'd love to see how Donny's little plan will hold up when rates hit 6%, 8%, or 10%. Or maybe have Fannie and Freddie go away and see how bad things can really get. What happened with prices over the past 10 or so years will be a once in a lifetime event. You won't ever see prices go 4-5x in 10 years again in our lives.
 
[quote author="bkshopr" date=1241598870]My caution for everyone is not to set high hope on new homes in Irvine because they will not reach rent parity. Resales at this time lack bench mark pricing. Greedy home sellers will revise once they learn of TIC's bench mark. Wait for the last moment to buy a resale before TIC unveils its new products.</blockquote>


Oh, come on BK, you can?t just leave us hanging like this? We need dates, times, hours; when would that be? So,, ok let?s see, if Orchard Hills and Laguna Crossing has prep land ready to go, the quickest time they can get model homes up is probably six months? From the sound of how decisions are progressing, I?m realistically guessing, next summer?s buying season 2010. Latest summer of 2011; by that time most of us would have bought?
 
[quote author="roundcorners" date=1241650109][quote author="bkshopr" date=1241598870]My caution for everyone is not to set high hope on new homes in Irvine because they will not reach rent parity. Resales at this time lack bench mark pricing. Greedy home sellers will revise once they learn of TIC's bench mark. Wait for the last moment to buy a resale before TIC unveils its new products.</blockquote>


Oh, come on BK, you can?t just leave us hanging like this? We need dates, times, hours; when would that be? So,, ok let?s see, if Orchard Hills and Laguna Crossing has prep land ready to go, the quickest time they can get model homes up is probably six months? From the sound of how decisions are progressing, I?m realistically guessing, next summer?s buying season 2010. Latest summer of 2011; by that time most of us would have bought?</blockquote>


My guess is as good as yours.
 
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