IHB: Hopeful Few or Swallowed Up By Hopeless Many?

drewkawa_IHB

drewkawa_IHB

New member
I was just reading a post about the cost of ownership per square foot. The argument was between $375 as a benchmark for the city versus a downward trend towards the $200's, which got me thinking. I would like to hope that the majority of the people who post here, read here and frequent here are keeping an eye out on the RE market, but what about the rest of the <em>un-knowledgeable/unknowing </em>people out there that see $375, $350, $300 per sq. foot a reasonable deal for Irvine?



<strong>We</strong> will hold out and wait, but what about the (dare I say) majority out there that will not wait, will buy on impulse and perhaps turn the housing market in Irvine into a benchmark price per square foot ripoff. Anything is possible, but whats probable?





Thanks Everyone,



Drew
 
[quote author="Drew" date=1241428745]I was just reading a post about the cost of ownership per square foot. The argument was between $375 as a benchmark for the city versus a downward trend towards the $200's, which got me thinking. I would like to hope that the majority of the people who post here, read here and frequent here are keeping an eye out on the RE market, but what about the rest of the <em>un-knowledgeable/unknowing </em>people out there that see $375, $350, $300 per sq. foot a reasonable deal for Irvine?



<strong>We</strong> will hold out and wait, but what about the (dare I say) majority out there that will not wait, will buy on impulse and perhaps turn the housing market in Irvine into a benchmark price per square foot ripoff. Anything is possible, but whats probable?





Thanks Everyone,



Drew</blockquote>
Honestly, I REFUSE to overpay for home where I will live. No way am I paying a premium to own if renting is cheaper...I can wait for a long, long time (this is coming from a single male with no kids so I think I can hold out longer than most married folks with kids) until we get to rental parity. That's the other problem, I have to compete with dual incomes for an entry level home but with each passing month I stock away a fair amount in savings. Living below your means FTW!
 
Hi, Drew.



I understand what you are saying about that type of buyer but those buyers haven't been able to stop homes from depreciating so I wouldn't be concerned. If the prices became benchmarked at $375 and stuck, I think what you would see is a lot of people like myself boycotting this city and moving to other areas, so you've got to think about what sort of counter-effect that would have. We can rationalize all we want but as long as prices keep losing ground, we have every reason to wait and it's really as simple... and as difficult... as that, in my opinion. Just my .02.
 
[quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1241429236]Then you buy something that is bigger, better, less expensive and has more character in a different community.</blockquote>
That's the idea...Tustin, Orange, Huntington Beach, Costa Mesa, Fullerton, and Brea are the towns I'll be looking to buy in. I wouldn't mind buying a nice little bungelow. 3bed/2bath around 1,500/sf with a decent yard would be ideal.
 
[quote author="Drew" date=1241428745]I was just reading a post about the cost of ownership per square foot. The argument was between $375 as a benchmark for the city versus a downward trend towards the $200's, which got me thinking. I would like to hope that the majority of the people who post here, read here and frequent here are keeping an eye out on the RE market, but what about the rest of the <em>un-knowledgeable/unknowing </em>people out there that see $375, $350, $300 per sq. foot a reasonable deal for Irvine?



<strong>We</strong> will hold out and wait, but what about the (dare I say) majority out there that will not wait, will buy on impulse and perhaps turn the housing market in Irvine into a benchmark price per square foot ripoff. Anything is possible, but whats probable?





Thanks Everyone,



Drew</blockquote>


The people you are describing are what we call knife catchers. Everyone who has bought since mid 2006 has bloodied their hands. Basically, there are not enough of these people to support the market. Supply in the form of foreclosures will overwhelm the few knife catchers and prices will fall. It is happening now, and it will continue to happen.



If you really want to understand this stuff, go read the posts on the <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/analysis/">analysis tab</a> on the main blog, or go to my <a href="http://www.thegreathousingbubble.com/">book website</a> and sign up for the free email course.
 
[quote author="ERPguy" date=1241502372]People need a job before they can buy a house. Irvine was rated the 4Th Worst Big Cities For Jobs by Forbes.



http://www.forbes.com/2009/04/27/worst-big-cities-jobs-opinions-columnists-employment_slide_8.html</blockquote>


Irvine's jobs to housing ratio is 3.3:1. Average for OC is 1.56:1.
 
[quote author="asianinvasian" date=1241505018]



Irvine's jobs to housing ratio is 3.3:1. Average for OC is 1.56:1.</blockquote>


Just so I understand, does 3.3 to 1 mean that there's 3.3 jobs available to every house? Doesn't that suggest Irvine's unemployment rate should be 0%? Is that even possible?
 
[quote author="MoneyNing" date=1241505125][quote author="asianinvasian" date=1241505018]



Irvine's jobs to housing ratio is 3.3:1. Average for OC is 1.56:1.</blockquote>


Just so I understand, does 3.3 to 1 mean that there's 3.3 jobs available to every house? Doesn't that suggest Irvine's unemployment rate should be 0%? Is that even possible?</blockquote>


That would be true if all the people living in Irvine worked only in Irvine and everyone else just worked in the city they lived. I think? However, take one drive on the 405 and/or 55 and you will see this is not the case.
 
[quote author="asianinvasian" date=1241505018][quote author="ERPguy" date=1241502372]People need a job before they can buy a house. Irvine was rated the 4Th Worst Big Cities For Jobs by Forbes.



http://www.forbes.com/2009/04/27/worst-big-cities-jobs-opinions-columnists-employment_slide_8.html</blockquote>


Irvine's jobs to housing ratio is 3.3:1. Average for OC is 1.56:1.</blockquote>


Would you stop posting dummy stats. You can make the numbers mean whatever you want...this was pointless.
 
[quote author="ERPguy" date=1241502372]People need a job before they can buy a house. Irvine was rated the 4Th Worst Big Cities For Jobs by Forbes.



http://www.forbes.com/2009/04/27/worst-big-cities-jobs-opinions-columnists-employment_slide_8.html</blockquote>


"Here, between 2005 and 2008, jobs in construction declined 17.8%, and jobs in information declined 10%. Employment in financial services, a field that especially boomed in Irvine, dropped by 22% over the same years. Much of this was tied to mortgage related companies."
 
[quote author="Drew" date=1241428745]<strong>We</strong> will hold out and wait, but what about the (dare I say) majority out there that will not wait, will buy on impulse and perhaps turn the housing market in Irvine into a benchmark price per square foot ripoff. Anything is possible, but whats probable?</blockquote>


There is a big difference between want and can buy. That was called financing and now it's gone.



The Irvine premium you are talking about will still exist, but it won't be 50% over Tustin.
 
[quote author="MoneyNing" date=1241505125][quote author="asianinvasian" date=1241505018]



Irvine's jobs to housing ratio is 3.3:1. Average for OC is 1.56:1.</blockquote>


Just so I understand, does 3.3 to 1 mean that there's 3.3 jobs available to every house? Doesn't that suggest Irvine's unemployment rate should be 0%? Is that even possible?</blockquote>


No, it means that OC has 1.56 jobs for every house. All of OC should have a 0% unemployment rate!
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1241525462]ever see the 91 at rush hour?</blockquote>


Exactly. A rather large number of jobs in Orange County are held by people who don't live in Orange County, but who live in Riverside County, and almost nobody commutes the other way around.
 
I personally know about 10 people who either just bought or are going to buy in the next few months.

Every single one of them thinks that this is it, we hit bottom and its not going to go any lower.
 
[quote author="halfnote19" date=1241564139]I personally know about 10 people who either just bought or are going to buy in the next few months.

Every single one of them thinks that this is it, we hit bottom and its not going to go any lower.</blockquote>


I hope they have several years of cash reserves.
 
[quote author="halfnote19" date=1241564139]I personally know about 10 people who either just bought or are going to buy in the next few months.

Every single one of them thinks that this is it, we hit bottom and its not going to go any lower.</blockquote>


Bah. Irvine is nowhere near the bottom. The Inland Empire might be close, but Irvine sure ain't.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top