How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...

[eyephone]

why did the 30yr rate shoot up to mid-3s?

Look out for lending credit to tighten. (The start)

 

[nguyener]

Here is a great article about mortgage interest rates this week.

Mortgage Rates Are Taking an Utter Beating (Relatively)

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/consumer_rates/938641.aspx

 

[freedomcm]

how is the turmoil in the bond market going to play out wrt mortgages?

 

[eyephone]

how is the turmoil in the bond market going to play out wrt mortgages?

Lending is tightening or something. As loan rates has gone higher.

 

[potsticker]

Have heard there is overwhelming volume of refi applications and shops are raising rates to slow the pipeline.

 

[Cares]

Have heard there is overwhelming volume of refi applications and shops are raising rates to slow the pipeline.

One thing to keep in mind is that many lenders have commitments to $x at x% of loans. That's possibly 1 reason why there's a "floor" on how low rates can go at least in the time being.

 

[usctrojancpa]

how is the turmoil in the bond market going to play out wrt mortgages?

Lending is tightening or something. As loan rates has gone higher.

There's been a selloff in the MBS market which has pushed up rates.

 

[sgip]

Nuff said:

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/consumer_rates/938844.aspx

This was a very big move. There isn't much left in the Fed's arsenal to work with other than debt destruction. My guess is Trump will send out $1,000 cash to all tax payers, similar to what Bush did in the early 2000's to stimulate the economy.

My .02c

 

[dethman]

my bank is offering 3.125 30 yr fixed jumbo with slight cost (2K).  i'm thinking lock, thoughts?

 

[Kenkoko]

my bank is offering 3.125 30 yr fixed jumbo with slight cost (2K).  i'm thinking lock, thoughts?

If you can wait, it's going to go even lower. High demand to refi has propped up the rate. But that should be relatively short lived as we are heading into a recession.

 

[eyephone]

my bank is offering 3.125 30 yr fixed jumbo with slight cost (2K).  i'm thinking lock, thoughts?

If you can wait, it's going to go even lower. High demand to refi has propped up the rate. But that should be relatively short lived as we are heading into a recession.

Or the credit market is tightening..... 8)

 

[akkord]

my bank is offering 3.125 30 yr fixed jumbo with slight cost (2K).  i'm thinking lock, thoughts?

Do they give you a 1 time free float down of an eighth if rates drop before you close? I say lock now, and if it drops again in a few months you can always refi again. I've only seen rates go up recently, 3.125 is good enough for a 30 and if you pulled $ out of the market you can do relationship $ to drop it another eighth or quarter depending on how much cash is sitting on the sidelines to buy back in.

 

[OCtoSV]

my bank is offering 3.125 30 yr fixed jumbo with slight cost (2K).  i'm thinking lock, thoughts?

If you can wait, it's going to go even lower. High demand to refi has propped up the rate. But that should be relatively short lived as we are heading into a recession.

I would take it as there is no guarantee you'll see a better offer anytime soon given the crazy demand. I'm closing Wed on 2.99 jumbo conforming 15 yr, no fee (lender credit), appraisal waiver. Initiated late Feb. For once in my life I had good timing.

 

[dethman]

my bank is offering 3.125 30 yr fixed jumbo with slight cost (2K).  i'm thinking lock, thoughts?

If you can wait, it's going to go even lower. High demand to refi has propped up the rate. But that should be relatively short lived as we are heading into a recession.

that's the big question, will it actually go lower or will the rate just continue to be propped up by demand?

 

[Kenkoko]

I personally would wait because I've been bearish since mid-late 2018.
And I just do not see much of anything that can significantly move the rate upward. 
But I am aware that most people on TI are bullish, so in that case a 3.125 is good enough on a 30 yr.

I think we are heading into a deep recession. My prediction in 2018 is turning out to be quite true.

I think we will only see a 5% price drop by 2020. But I would not use this dip to buy because I see a potential doomsday scenario beyond 2020 with a US economy slowdown compounded by a China meltdown. If that happens, we could see a 15-20% drop and that will be the buying opportunity.

 

[akkord]

I'm not bullish, I'm 90% cash right now waiting to buy back in.  But if you can refi now at 3.125% and if rates never go down further you're good to go, if rates go down further you can always refi again.  Did the 30yr hit 3.0 during 2008 or after?

If the coronavirus never happened I don't think the market would have crashed like it did. 

I personally would wait because I've been bearish since mid-late 2018.
And I just do not see much of anything that can significantly move the rate upward. 
But I am aware that most people on TI are bullish, so in that case a 3.125 is good enough on a 30 yr.

I think we are heading into a deep recession. My prediction in 2018 is turning out to be quite true.

I think we will only see a 5% price drop by 2020. But I would not use this dip to buy because I see a potential doomsday scenario beyond 2020 with a US economy slowdown compounded by a China meltdown. If that happens, we could see a 15-20% drop and that will be the buying opportunity.

 

[Kenkoko]

I'm not bullish, I'm 90% cash right now waiting to buy back in.  But if you can refi now at 3.125% and if rates never go down further you're good to go, if rates go down further you can always refi again.  Did the 30yr hit 3.0 during 2008 or after?

If the coronavirus never happened I don't think the market would have crashed like it did. 

Not 100% certain but I think we came close to 3% in 2011/2012 but never actually hit 3%.

I think if my overall outlook is more align with yours, then taking the 3.125% now indeed makes sense.

But I personally wouldn't do it because 1) my conviction is that we are heading for a deep recession and 2) Dethman said he has a 2K cost. I wouldn't want to pay that since I am even more bearish now than I was in late 2018. I started shorting since December and is now approx 85% actively shorting and 15% cash.

 

[akkord]

Wish I could short, but due to where my wife and I work, we have 60 day min hold periods, options/shorts need to be pre-cleared through compliance which isn't happening in this market.  Tough to do for us.

Depending on the loan amount and if dethman plans to pay the same amount as his/her current mortgage payment and more into the principal each month, the interest you save and the years you don't have to pay for paying the loan off earlier, make up the 2k no problem.  It's the ARM play but with a 30yr and a lower rate.  And if what you say is true (I hope it is then we can all refi and save $), the next refi should hopefully be a no cost refi, so you're hedging your bets with a 3.125 rate now.  Rates go up, you got an awesome 30 yr fixed rate, if rates go down you have the option to refi again. 

I'm not bullish, I'm 90% cash right now waiting to buy back in.  But if you can refi now at 3.125% and if rates never go down further you're good to go, if rates go down further you can always refi again.  Did the 30yr hit 3.0 during 2008 or after?

If the coronavirus never happened I don't think the market would have crashed like it did. 

Not 100% certain but I think we came close to 3% in 2011/2012 but never actually hit 3%.

I think if my overall outlook is more align with yours, then taking the 3.125% now indeed makes sense.

But I personally wouldn't do it because 1) my conviction is that we are heading for a deep recession and 2) Dethman said he has a 2K cost. I wouldn't want to pay that since I am even more bearish now than I was in late 2018. I started shorting since December and is now approx 85% actively shorting and 15% cash.

 

[usctrojancpa]

I'm not bullish, I'm 90% cash right now waiting to buy back in.  But if you can refi now at 3.125% and if rates never go down further you're good to go, if rates go down further you can always refi again.  Did the 30yr hit 3.0 during 2008 or after?

If the coronavirus never happened I don't think the market would have crashed like it did. 

I personally would wait because I've been bearish since mid-late 2018.
And I just do not see much of anything that can significantly move the rate upward. 
But I am aware that most people on TI are bullish, so in that case a 3.125 is good enough on a 30 yr.

I think we are heading into a deep recession. My prediction in 2018 is turning out to be quite true.

I think we will only see a 5% price drop by 2020. But I would not use this dip to buy because I see a potential doomsday scenario beyond 2020 with a US economy slowdown compounded by a China meltdown. If that happens, we could see a 15-20% drop and that will be the buying opportunity.

Nope, rates hit 3.25% as the low 10 years ago with QE but that lasted for all of a week.  I think we can get to 3% but there may be big resistance to go much below that though.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I think we are heading into a deep recession. My prediction in 2018 is turning out to be quite true.

I think we will only see a 5% price drop by 2020. But I would not use this dip to buy because I see a potential doomsday scenario beyond 2020 with a US economy slowdown compounded by a China meltdown. If that happens, we could see a 15-20% drop and that will be the buying opportunity.

Easy Nostradamus... you didn't predict Corona.

You were actually very quiet the last 3 months or so when housing prices didn't drop like you expected in 2019.

And now that we have this totally unrelated pandemic that no one mentioned (just like Fed intervention) you are breaking out the "I told you so"s? If I recall correctly, the primary driver for your housing slowdown theory was the backing off of Chinese investments. And for economic slowdown, you kept citing AI and automation.

Let's not be revisionist historians here.