How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...

qwerty said:
Perspective said:
LongIrvine said:
Some might be higher better uses of capital.

300bp pretax cost vs apx.  200bp after tax.

Right, but by locking your 3.5% rate for the full 30 years, at an effective rate of ~2% considering taxes, you're guaranteeing 30 years of seeking higher uses of capital that might earn > 2%, not just a few years.

The average person stays in their house seven years. I don't think anyone really stays in the same house for 30 years so you don't really lock in that rate for 30 years.

With the outrages prices, maybe I won't move.

 
qwerty said:
Perspective said:
LongIrvine said:
Some might be higher better uses of capital.

300bp pretax cost vs apx.  200bp after tax.

Right, but by locking your 3.5% rate for the full 30 years, at an effective rate of ~2% considering taxes, you're guaranteeing 30 years of seeking higher uses of capital that might earn > 2%, not just a few years.

The average person stays in their house seven years. I don't think anyone really stays in the same house for 30 years so you don't really lock in that rate for 30 years.

Very true, but if your reasonable plan is to remain for 20+ years, it's difficult for me to justify an ARM.
 
For first time home owners (and early career aged folks), it makes sense.  Wished I did 7/1 ARM then.  Risk averse I tell you..,
 
qwerty said:
Perspective said:
LongIrvine said:
Some might be higher better uses of capital.

300bp pretax cost vs apx.  200bp after tax.

Right, but by locking your 3.5% rate for the full 30 years, at an effective rate of ~2% considering taxes, you're guaranteeing 30 years of seeking higher uses of capital that might earn > 2%, not just a few years.

The average person stays in their house seven years. I don't think anyone really stays in the same house for 30 years so you don't really lock in that rate for 30 years.
I think we are heading into a period where people are going to stay at places longer. The market just isn't the same as it once was when it comes to that, imo. We are already seeing a trend of increasing renters and renters will have the flexibility, but I think as part of this, we will also see a trend where you have people staying in places longer (due to appreciation and inability to move up) which will drive more sales being related to people downsizing, relocation, or job loss vs. what happened back in the day. This is especially true given the affordability levels that exist in South Orange County. 

Of course this is just all my "hypothesis" vs. any actual fact.  I know my general expectation is the house I am moving into will be it (unless I get relocated / lose a job / downsize in retirement). 
 
qwerty said:
Perspective said:
LongIrvine said:
Some might be higher better uses of capital.

300bp pretax cost vs apx.  200bp after tax.

Right, but by locking your 3.5% rate for the full 30 years, at an effective rate of ~2% considering taxes, you're guaranteeing 30 years of seeking higher uses of capital that might earn > 2%, not just a few years.

The average person stays in their house seven years. I don't think anyone really stays in the same house for 30 years so you don't really lock in that rate for 30 years.

Very true. Locking down historically low rates for 30 years makes lot of sense if you see the house turn into rental whenever you move out. But, with Irvine market, chances are that the house will be terrible rental property with ever rising MR and HOAs. Might as well enjoy lower cost ARM, and 5-7-10 years later move out or refi as your conditions allow at that point.

Most TIers buying these 800k homes are at a point in life where our kids won't be attending IUSD anymore in 7-10 years from now. Personally, I would not have many reasons to live in Irvine at that point.
 
Cornflakes said:
qwerty said:
Perspective said:
LongIrvine said:
Some might be higher better uses of capital.

300bp pretax cost vs apx.  200bp after tax.

Right, but by locking your 3.5% rate for the full 30 years, at an effective rate of ~2% considering taxes, you're guaranteeing 30 years of seeking higher uses of capital that might earn > 2%, not just a few years.

The average person stays in their house seven years. I don't think anyone really stays in the same house for 30 years so you don't really lock in that rate for 30 years.

Very true. Locking down historically low rates for 30 years makes lot of sense if you see the house turn into rental whenever you move out. But, with Irvine market, chances are that the house will be terrible rental property with ever rising MR and HOAs. Might as well enjoy lower cost ARM, and 5-7-10 years later move out or refi as your conditions allow at that point.

Most TIers buying these 800k homes are at a point in life where our kids won't be attending IUSD anymore in 7-10 years from now. Personally, I would not have many reasons to live in Irvine at that point.

If rent prices continue to insanely rise. Then renting it out may be a good idea.
 
IrvineBS said:
I closed a deal recently at 3.125% fixed over 30 years on a jumbo. 0 points and got a $1500 lender credit. crazy

Talked to a few banks.  B of A is able to offer 3.375% for 30-year fixed jumbo refi with no points if you transfer $500K in assets over and keep it with them for at least 3 months.  You will have to incur the fees yourself though.  That's the lowest refi I was able to find thus far.
 
My first house was 5% down on an adjustable rate (forgot what they called it back then, wasn't 5/1 or 7/1). On my homes after that I did a few Option ARMs (refis too) and that latest one is a 5/1.

But now that I'm long in the tooth and fat in the belly... will probably go 30-year fixed since we probably won't move anymore.

Although recently while driving to Newport, the Mrs. was talking about that Newport Bluffs area off of McArthur and Bonita... gah.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
My first house was 5% down on an adjustable rate (forgot what they called it back then, wasn't 5/1 or 7/1). On my homes after that I did a few Option ARMs (refis too) and that latest one is a 5/1.

But now that I'm long in the tooth and fat in the belly... will probably go 30-year fixed since we probably won't move anymore.

Although recently while driving to Newport, the Mrs. was talking about that Newport Bluffs area off of McArthur and Bonita... gah.

Just do a 15 year fix and be the greatest of all time. (Goat)
:)
 
Compressed-Village said:
Traditional method is boring but it had proven to works in the long run for me. People memory are short but I still remember the last downturn when people taken out exotic and options ARM and lost out on their largest investment. The effect is devastating not only to your family as well your financial. If I gamble I go to Vegas and plop down 200 on Red/Black and walk away.

Standard 5/1 or 7/1 ARMs actually helped borrowers in the last downturn as their rates went down without having to refinance (and possibly unable to refi due to being underwater). It was the teaser ARMs with 1% interest only in the first year and no income verification that was deadly.

If you buy a $1,000,000 home with 1% interest only for the 1st year followed by 5% P&I after that with no money down:

1st year: $800/mo mortgage payment
2nd year: $5,368.22/mo mortgage payment

http://bbs.stardestroyer.net/viewtopic.php?style=4&t=97269
 
paperboyNC said:
Compressed-Village said:
Traditional method is boring but it had proven to works in the long run for me. People memory are short but I still remember the last downturn when people taken out exotic and options ARM and lost out on their largest investment. The effect is devastating not only to your family as well your financial. If I gamble I go to Vegas and plop down 200 on Red/Black and walk away.

Standard 5/1 or 7/1 ARMs actually helped borrowers in the last downturn as their rates went down without having to refinance (and possibly unable to refi due to being underwater). It was the teaser ARMs with 1% interest only in the first year and no income verification that was deadly.

If you buy a $1,000,000 home with 1% interest only for the 1st year followed by 5% P&I after that with no money down:

1st year: $800/mo mortgage payment
2nd year: $5,368.22/mo mortgage payment

http://bbs.stardestroyer.net/viewtopic.php?style=4&t=97269

Very True
 
paperboyNC said:
Compressed-Village said:
Traditional method is boring but it had proven to works in the long run for me. People memory are short but I still remember the last downturn when people taken out exotic and options ARM and lost out on their largest investment. The effect is devastating not only to your family as well your financial. If I gamble I go to Vegas and plop down 200 on Red/Black and walk away.

Standard 5/1 or 7/1 ARMs actually helped borrowers in the last downturn as their rates went down without having to refinance (and possibly unable to refi due to being underwater). It was the teaser ARMs with 1% interest only in the first year and no income verification that was deadly.

If you buy a $1,000,000 home with 1% interest only for the 1st year followed by 5% P&I after that with no money down:

1st year: $800/mo mortgage payment
2nd year: $5,368.22/mo mortgage payment

http://bbs.stardestroyer.net/viewtopic.php?style=4&t=97269
Having had an Option ARM, if you managed it properly it worked well.

The problem was most people paid the lowest payment where it deferred the interest instead of either the interest only or the principal+interest (these loans had at least 3 payment options every month).

This way, based on your cash flow, you could pay more or less. The one thing that people don't mention is that during the reset years, where your payment was supposed jump up, that was usually 5 years down the road, and if 2005/06 was when most of these loans occurred, by 2010/11, the rates were so low that your lowest payment actually covered all the P&I and then some. So even if you deferred interest, you would be paying that off in a low interest environment.

The one thing we did not do when we used an OArm is put down less than 20%. You could say that was our hedge against possible rising rates and higher payments. This also would allow us more refinance options in the future.

That reset tsunami the article mentions and something Larry always talked about didn't happen. Why? Rates went down instead of up... I have a friend in his old OArm and he hasn't refi'd out because his full P&I is so low and he has the option to pay less if he needs to.
 
Whether it's a regular ARM, Option ARM, or even I/O ARM....if you are good with managing your money and use the loan properly you'll end up ahead versus opting for a 30-year fixed.  That being said, ARM loans are not for everyone.
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
Whether it's a regular ARM, Option ARM, or even I/O ARM....if you are good with managing your money and use the loan properly you'll end up ahead versus opting for a 30-year fixed.  That being said, ARM loans are not for everyone.

There's a bit too much certainty in this conclusion. Should read, "... you'll end up ahead likely be able to manage through prospective rising rate scenarios ..."
 
I locked in a 3.75% 30 year fixed conforming loan with 1.5pts credit (will pay for closing costs and a chunk of my impound reserves) on my Aliso rental with Alyson yesterday.  ;D
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
I locked in a 3.75% 30 year fixed conforming loan with 1.5pts credit (will pay for closing costs and a chunk of my impound reserves) on my Aliso rental with Alyson yesterday.  ;D

That is great rate. Is it investment property rate or PR/second home?
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
Paris said:
What do you guys think of a 5/5 ARM (principle + interest) at 2.8%, no points or origination fees.

PenFed or Navy Fed?

I'd opt for a 7/1 ARM at 2.625%.

NavyFed. Why 7/1 ARM over 5/5? Fixed low interest rate over 7 years does sound better but I don't think they gave us that option for refi. We'll ask our loan officer.
We also have the option of 30 year fixed at 3.375 but I think with origination fees and all, closing will cost us about $40k. And honestly we'll probably be in this house at most 10 years. The goal in that 10 years is to pay maximum principal with lowest monthly payments to allow additional cash flow for outside investments.
 
Paris said:
What do you guys think of a 5/5 ARM (principle + interest) at 2.8%, no points or origination fees.

This resets every 5 years right? So at the end of year five if the rate is 2.5% you get 2.5% for another five years? I would do the loan you quoted.
 
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