Irvinecommuter
New member
Goriot said:
That's my concern...the more seems to be more about panic/dumping rather than a slow reasonable retreat. I wonder if Bernake will float some calming comments before the next job report.
How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
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That's my concern...the more seems to be more about panic/dumping rather than a slow reasonable retreat. I wonder if Bernake will float some calming comments before the next job report.
Mortgage rates lag the treasury a little. You will see those rates rise. Also, the spread between the mortgage rates and the treasuries was wider then normal because of strong demand for loan originations. The spread right now is contracting really fast, which means, further rate increase will pass on to the consumers. Also, long-term maturity securities (30-year fixed) are a lot more sensitive to rate movements. Long-term bonds are getting hammered.
I'm seeing 30 year non-conforming at 4.99%. It's pushing the 5% mark which will definitely be a psychological shock for higher end buyers.
Or people closing in 30-45 day. Actually, I think it will be okay for those people closing far out...the summer will allow time for the fed thing to shake out and maybe stabilize the rate. My hope at this point is that the rates will go back down and I can refi in 6 months.
When do you close? Were you able to lock something?
I close in August...I could have locked at 60 days at 4.2 but now...not so much. I am stuck between 30 and 45 days...trying to figure out whether I should lock it now and at the 0.2% or wait it out. So far, not a great gamble. It does look like the bond market is flatting out and actually going back to what we opened at. At this point...somewhere around 4.3-4.5 looks like a bargain.
Looks like the Fed is trying to "walk back" Bernake's comments.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dudley-says-fed-isnt-accommodative-enough-2013-06-24-1010311
Sorry to hear that. Hopefully things get better.
It's cool. I don't like handing banks more money per month but the rates are still super low. 30% of me still think that the interest rates will settle somewhere between 4 and 4.3...both the bond and stock markets are rallying...let's see if it keeps up.
I think you need to get back to 2.2.-2.3 to get it to below four. Weird movement...big rise yesterday but a huge drop overnight. Looks like the overseas investors have more faith in the treasury bond than the US investor. It's pretty much stuck between 2.2 and 2.3 today...the downward adjustment of the GDP certainly made an impact.
It will probably stay around 2.5 until the jobs report in early July.
So I should be looking at this instead?
http://themortgagereports.com/13110/mortgage-rates-today-real-time-mbs-pricing-june-26-2013
Not sure what I am reading...Up is good right? How does it correlate?
Actually...this looks like the better site
http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/
Thanks a bunch! I am still shocked from the 0.5% jumped in the past week...just amazing.
That's my concern...the more seems to be more about panic/dumping rather than a slow reasonable retreat. I wonder if Bernake will float some calming comments before the next job report.
ps9 said:
Mortgage rates lag the treasury a little. You will see those rates rise. Also, the spread between the mortgage rates and the treasuries was wider then normal because of strong demand for loan originations. The spread right now is contracting really fast, which means, further rate increase will pass on to the consumers. Also, long-term maturity securities (30-year fixed) are a lot more sensitive to rate movements. Long-term bonds are getting hammered.
nosuchreality
Well-known member
Goriot said:
I'm seeing 30 year non-conforming at 4.99%. It's pushing the 5% mark which will definitely be a psychological shock for higher end buyers.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Ads on TV are already saying 'Refinance now or be rated out forever". 
quattroporte
New member
This sucks. This is insane! So high so fast.
I just feel bad for the buyers of new construction who close in 5-6 months. They probably got quoted monthly payments based on ~3.5%. Imagine the payment shock they will get at ~5%!
I just feel bad for the buyers of new construction who close in 5-6 months. They probably got quoted monthly payments based on ~3.5%. Imagine the payment shock they will get at ~5%!
Irvinecommuter
New member
quattroporte said:
Or people closing in 30-45 day. Actually, I think it will be okay for those people closing far out...the summer will allow time for the fed thing to shake out and maybe stabilize the rate. My hope at this point is that the rates will go back down and I can refi in 6 months.
Irvinecommuter
New member
Hopefully...statements like these will the start the "recovery" for bonds.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100838070
FWIW...the bond yield has flattened out at 2.6...I expect some buying tomorrow and a drop in the yield to about 2.3-2.4 levels by the end of the week (I hope). Anyone knows when the Fed actually implements QE on a monthly basis?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100838070
FWIW...the bond yield has flattened out at 2.6...I expect some buying tomorrow and a drop in the yield to about 2.3-2.4 levels by the end of the week (I hope). Anyone knows when the Fed actually implements QE on a monthly basis?
quattroporte
New member
Irvinecommuter said:
When do you close? Were you able to lock something?
Irvinecommuter
New member
quattroporte said:
I close in August...I could have locked at 60 days at 4.2 but now...not so much. I am stuck between 30 and 45 days...trying to figure out whether I should lock it now and at the 0.2% or wait it out. So far, not a great gamble. It does look like the bond market is flatting out and actually going back to what we opened at. At this point...somewhere around 4.3-4.5 looks like a bargain.
Looks like the Fed is trying to "walk back" Bernake's comments.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dudley-says-fed-isnt-accommodative-enough-2013-06-24-1010311
quattroporte
New member
Irvinecommuter said:
Sorry to hear that. Hopefully things get better.
Irvinecommuter
New member
quattroporte said:
It's cool. I don't like handing banks more money per month but the rates are still super low. 30% of me still think that the interest rates will settle somewhere between 4 and 4.3...both the bond and stock markets are rallying...let's see if it keeps up.
LiefinIrvine
Member
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-first-quarter-growth-cut-123222216.html
The 10-Year bond is already down to 2.52, will this news bring the mortgage rates down to less than 4%?
The 10-Year bond is already down to 2.52, will this news bring the mortgage rates down to less than 4%?
Irvinecommuter
New member
LiefinIrvine said:
I think you need to get back to 2.2.-2.3 to get it to below four. Weird movement...big rise yesterday but a huge drop overnight. Looks like the overseas investors have more faith in the treasury bond than the US investor. It's pretty much stuck between 2.2 and 2.3 today...the downward adjustment of the GDP certainly made an impact.
It will probably stay around 2.5 until the jobs report in early July.
sgip
Well-known member
Remember thought that the 10 year is simply an indicator of the direction in rates. Mortgage loan terms are dependent upon the trading price of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) which sometimes move in opposition to the 10 YT. You can see the 10y improve by 20-30 basis points in a day, but no one wants a 3.5% FNMA MBS based on the current coupon price.
My .02 bpts.
My .02 bpts.
Irvinecommuter
New member
Soylent Green Is People said:
So I should be looking at this instead?
http://themortgagereports.com/13110/mortgage-rates-today-real-time-mbs-pricing-june-26-2013
Not sure what I am reading...Up is good right? How does it correlate?
Actually...this looks like the better site
http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/
sgip
Well-known member
The first link says it's "real time" but the last shot was as of 11:38 EST (8:38 PST) and I'm writing this at almost 1:00 PST.
The second link is a bit dated as well and doesn't give that clear of a picture of the direction of rates. It's better though than the first link.
The main page of Mortgage News Daily has a "market snapshot" section on the RH side. They post 10yr T data and MBS prices that are about 20 minutes behind the market. For people who just want a quick look at things, that's the place I'd recommend looking.
Here's another page within MND to use to see trends:
http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/daily.aspx
Sometimes people will say "the markets IMPROVING because bond prices are rising!!!", and it had from 6/24 to 6/25. It's hard to consider rates to have improved much when the average has gone from 4.59 down to 4.57. It's important to view things also in context. These rates are structured under "best case scenarios". If a borrowers FICO is 665, they're putting 10% down, and buying a Condo, the rate will be 5.25% because of the Agency Loan Level Price Adjustments.
My .02 euros.
The second link is a bit dated as well and doesn't give that clear of a picture of the direction of rates. It's better though than the first link.
The main page of Mortgage News Daily has a "market snapshot" section on the RH side. They post 10yr T data and MBS prices that are about 20 minutes behind the market. For people who just want a quick look at things, that's the place I'd recommend looking.
Here's another page within MND to use to see trends:
http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/daily.aspx
Sometimes people will say "the markets IMPROVING because bond prices are rising!!!", and it had from 6/24 to 6/25. It's hard to consider rates to have improved much when the average has gone from 4.59 down to 4.57. It's important to view things also in context. These rates are structured under "best case scenarios". If a borrowers FICO is 665, they're putting 10% down, and buying a Condo, the rate will be 5.25% because of the Agency Loan Level Price Adjustments.
My .02 euros.
Irvinecommuter
New member
Soylent Green Is People said:
Thanks a bunch! I am still shocked from the 0.5% jumped in the past week...just amazing.
Irvinecommuter
New member
Finally go some relief the last few days and the 30 year fixed rate loan settled at 4.5%...of course the 10-year treasury jumped to 2.56 for absolutely no reason. Chicago PMI was much lower than expected but UMich consumer sentiment was better than expected...thus mixed news. A Fed comes out and says that QE may be increased.
Yet...still a 11 basis point jump in 4 hours. Just ridiculous. I cannot wait to lock in in a few day before the jobs report...I don't want to be a bonds trader anymore.
Yet...still a 11 basis point jump in 4 hours. Just ridiculous. I cannot wait to lock in in a few day before the jobs report...I don't want to be a bonds trader anymore.
sgip
Well-known member
Peaks and valleys. It's the trend from this point forward you want to watch. The daily stuff is going to drive you to despair so don't do it. We're not going to see sub 3.75% 30 fixed for some time so work within what the world has given and let's hope together for better days.
Be thankful your loan wasn't at some of the big refinance houses (Greenlight, CC, etc). Most of the larger refi-only places didn't lock their 3.25% 30 fixed deals that were supposed to close in July. That's going to cause some real problems....
Be thankful your loan wasn't at some of the big refinance houses (Greenlight, CC, etc). Most of the larger refi-only places didn't lock their 3.25% 30 fixed deals that were supposed to close in July. That's going to cause some real problems....