How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...

[irvinehomeowner]

Your BIG LIE about 15% didn't happen either, so let's at least be honest about that.

Now who is being dishonest? This has been explained many times, this was for homes that I was explicitly looking at. And I believe I said 15-20%, which is a lot closer to 28% than 50%+.

I've made so many predictions on TI and every one of them has been correct, but I make predictions based on the data, not on people telling me to bark like a dog.

Every one of of them? Now that's a BIG LIE and totally jives with your name. Everyone knows your most recent 2018-2022 prediction... that you keep trying to disguise it with some cherry picked 2020 seasonal drop (less than 5%?)... which was still HIGHER than 2018 (and ruined much of your credibility here).

Make your own damn prediction and let's see you defend it. I'm sure you won't.

Aww... someone is offended.

I've defended my stance multiple times. I didn't think prices could crash over 50% in the 2000s crash and it didn't. But unlike you, I don't really care. Housing, especially in Irvine, has too many non-fundamental factors, so it's near impossible to accurately guess timing and percentages. I've said that many times before but you just don't get it.

It's okay to be wrong... just remember you were the one who bought in the IE thinking that would be better than buying in Irvine and you're still bitter about that to this day. At least you got smarter and rebought in a better OC city (which I may add was during the time frame you were telling everyone else NOT to buy). You finally listened to me and bought what you really wanted and when you could afford it... like most should.

You're welcome.

 

[Mawesome Sauce]

do you think rates aren't high enough? or is it because more than half of mortgages are either paid off or have rates under 4% putting pressure on available inventory?

Rates aren’t high enough. Record amount of speculation in real estate for rentals along with builders curtailing to rich international buyers is the problem. The fed can sell MBS and legislature can pass a tax on non resident owners. I have no faith our legislature in California will do that. I don’t understand why the fed won’t sell MBS or at least increase their roll off of treasuries… unless election year politics are happening.

 

[Loco_local]

interesting to see the amount of speculation around the country.

See how many all-cash buyers snagged houses in your neighborhood

 

[CalBears96]

CareBears is going through the process of rationalizing the purchase of a home at the peak. If prices only fall to Nov 2021 levels, then it wasn't that bad of a decision, but if prices continue to drop past that, a new reason for why it was a good decision will have to be invented. All home buyers with remorse go through this same psychological process to some extent.

Liar,. how STUPID are you? I bought in Dec 2021, NOWHERE near the top. Get that into that dumb thick skull of yours. The peak was Apr 2022, DUMB FUCK. Even right now, the homes are selling at MUCH HIGHER price than my purchase price.

You're a LIAR and WRONG at every prediction you made, DUMB FUCK.

 

[Liar Loan]

Now who is being dishonest? This has been explained many times, this was for homes that I was explicitly looking at. And I believe I said 15-20%, which is a lot closer to 28% than 50%+.

Please post a link prior to when I called you out on it. You shifted to 20% after it was revealed that Irvine actually dropped by 28%. Poor Panda who is a professional actually believed your 15% number. That's why I point out that it was a BIG LIE because others actually believed you and made bad decisions based on your falsehood.

Every one of of them? Now that's a BIG LIE and totally jives with your name. Everyone knows your most recent 2018-2022 prediction... that you keep trying to disguise it with some cherry picked 2020 seasonal drop (less than 5%?)... which was still HIGHER than 2018 (and ruined much of your credibility here).

USCTrojanCPA has debunked you on this multiple times. I predicted prices would go lower (as did he) and they did, as confirmed by his independently compiled stats.

I've defended my stance multiple times. I didn't think prices could crash over 50% in the 2000s crash and it didn't.

That's great. I didn't think prices would crash by that much either. It puts you in line with roughly 99% of predictions from that time.

It's okay to be wrong... just remember you were the one who bought in the IE thinking that would be better than buying in Irvine and you're still bitter about that to this day. At least you got smarter and rebought in a better OC city (which I may add was during the time frame you were telling everyone else NOT to buy). You finally listened to me and bought what you really wanted and when you could afford it... like most should.

This is a master class in deflection. Where is your Irvine prediction coward?

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Please post a link prior to when I called you out on it. You shifted to 20% after it was revealed that Irvine actually dropped by 28%.

More lies.

I made a thread where I posted about 3-car garages homes in Irvine and what their prices were during the drop. The ones that **I LIKED** were around the 15-20% drop. Meccos challenged my finding and I pointed him to that thread where he got owned... just like I own you now.

Poor Panda who is a professional actually believed your 15% number. That's why I point out that it was a BIG LIE because others actually believed you and made bad decisions based on your falsehood.

This makes zero sense. I talked about these numbers AFTER the drop had already happened looking back at what I had seen because prices were already going back up around 2012. Not sure why you mention Panda.. he had already decided to move to Georgia after looking at The New Home Collection circa 2010. You're struggling so hard to be right, you can't even get your timelines straight.

USCTrojanCPA has debunked you on this multiple times. I predicted prices would go lower (as did he) and they did, as confirmed by his independently compiled stats.

Wow. You predicted a slowdown... 5% is NOT a slowdown... and you had predicted a long one... not a blip on the radar. What USC predicted was not the same as you... don't try to put your lies on him.

So now you are saying that what you predicted in 2018 was that in 2 years prices were going to drop in Irvine less than 5%? Yeah... find that post.... doesn't exist. But there are tons of posts where you implied the drops were going to be much worse... remember the "pain" you kept predicting that NEVER happened. So this great Irvine pain you kept predicting meant a seasonal drop? LOL LOL LOL LOL!!

This is a master class in deflection. Where is your Irvine prediction coward?

No deflections... I'm not the one who has to prove he's always right... I just point out how wrong you have frequently been.

My prediction has never changed... Irvine will not drop as far as many people want it to (didn't in the last drop... or even the last "drop" that you like to point out) and will recover faster than most other neighborhoods. Why? Because the haters can't see the data that's in front of them that makes Irvine different... FCBs, new home construction, master planned community, central location, financially stable owners.... and much more.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

This is how easy it is to find LL's bad predictions... and this one is hilarious because he started this thread in March of 2012 thinking that Irvine prices were going to continue to drop:



We all know what happened after that, prices skyrocketed and kept going up. In fact, the buyers from 2008-2011 saw some great gains from 2013 on.

Nice "destroyed" call LL!

 

[Mawesome Sauce]

do you think rates aren't high enough? or is it because more than half of mortgages are either paid off or have rates under 4% putting pressure on available inventory?

Rates aren’t high enough. Record amount of speculation in real estate for rentals along with builders curtailing to rich international buyers is the problem. The fed can sell MBS and legislature can pass a tax on non resident owners. I have no faith our legislature in California will do that. I don’t understand why the fed won’t sell MBS or at least increase their roll off of treasuries… unless election year politics are the reason

 

[sleepy5136]

Rates aren’t high enough. Record amount of speculation in real estate for rentals along with builders curtailing to rich international buyers is the problem. The fed can sell MBS and legislature can pass a tax on non resident owners. I have no faith our legislature in California will do that. I don’t understand why the fed won’t sell MBS or at least increase their roll off of treasuries… unless election year politics are the reason

But let’s say rates go to 10%. Do you think housing prices will drop that much? If rates at 10%, no one will sell unless they absolutely have to. Majority of borrowers are now locked in at rates less than 4% or have their mortgages paid off. Borrowers are stronger than 2006-2009. Rates aren’t even near 10% and there is not much inventory now.

 

[CalBears96]

But let’s say rates go to 10%. Do you think housing prices will drop that much? If rates at 10%, no one will sell unless they absolutely have to. Majority of borrowers are now locked in at rates less than 4% or have their mortgages paid off. Borrowers are stronger than 2006-2009. Rates aren’t even near 10% and there is not much inventory now.

Those who refinanced during pandemic actually locked in at 2%. Even I, who bought in Dec 2021, locked in below 3%.

Rates won't affect housing price that much this time around. Even if there's a lot of massive layoffs, it will only affect those who bought recently. The ones who bought before 2020 are set. So, yes, there will be very little inventory even in such case.

 

[usctrojancpa]

The higher the rates go the less inventory there will be on the market but as rates go lower it'll bring out the move-up buyers which will increase inventory.

 

[sleepy5136]

The higher the rates go the less inventory there will be on the market but as rates go lower it'll bring out the move-up buyers which will increase inventory.

I feel like the fact that rates went down to < 4% in 2020-2022 has actually made rates like you guys have said irrelevant. But that is assuming unemployment rates stay low. If unemployment rates increases to 2008 levels, I do think people would be forced to sale. This would increase inventory assuming the government doesn't implement mortgage forbearance again..

 

[usctrojancpa]

I feel like the fact that rates went down to < 4% in 2020-2022 has actually made rates like you guys have said irrelevant. But that is assuming unemployment rates stay low. If unemployment rates increases to 2008 levels, I do think people would be forced to sale. This would increase inventory assuming the government doesn't implement mortgage forbearance again..

Of course the government will step in, mortgage forbearance 2.0 baby.

 

[sgip]

Ever since the 2008 crisis we as a nation have morphed into a "consequence free zone". Yes, there will be plenty of programs, forbearances, etc to prevent a second housing meltdown.

About the only two forces capable of moving the inventory needle is growth in family size and making rental property financing nearly impossible to get. That said, the only tempering force in growth of family is a gradual end of "work from home". More and more employers are requiring their people to come to the office. A home office feature in a property really isn't a much of a priority as it used to be. Now, that extra child or dependent parent can live in what was the home office instead of selling or moving. As for rentals - the Agencies (FNMA / FHLMC) are doing their best to make rental property lending unaffordable with their increased LLPA's. Banks are also coming alongside the Agencies as they add their own "Risk Overlays" to underwriting guidelines of rental property loans.

What will continue to tighten inventory are all those 15 year loans made in 2010-2020. Some early refinancers now have less than 10 years left on their mortgage with zero reason to sell and every reason to rent. Low inventory blame should rest directly on the shoulders of those who caused it - government initiatives meant to stimulate the economy and prevent what happened again in 2007-2009 that were not well thought out for their unintended consequences.

 

[Mawesome Sauce]

Ever since the 2008 crisis we as a nation have morphed into a "consequence free zone". Yes, there will be plenty of programs, forbearances, etc to prevent a second housing meltdown.

government initiatives meant to stimulate the economy and prevent what happened again in 2007-2009 that were not well thought out for their unintended consequences.

We all know this… just know half of the people on this forum either benefited from it or are too rich to care.

As for broader society, many are either too dumb or too fragile to admit that their idiot voting habits cause the very problems they complain about. Imagine if people were forced to realize that they are the evil they claimed to stop… they may just drop dead from grief.

 

[Liar Loan]

Jumbos seem to be increasing faster than conventionals. The gap between them is narrowing and I would expect during a recession that Jumbo rates would again exceed conforming rates.

Mortgage Rates Hit 2023 Highs And There's More Volatility in Store

​

 

[luckybuxtonhomeloans]

A portion of this rate move is artificial and may not last very long. There are two significant sources of broker funds today - Rocket Mortgage and UWM. UWM is run by a pretty innovative guy, Matt Ishbia, who took Ray Croc's advice - " If I see my competition drowning, I'd shove a hose down their throat and turn on the water...."

An article from June 2022, but still the main reason for what's going on. UWM is doing their best to drown the competition. It's not sustainable, as anyone burning cash like that has only so much of it to set alight. Rocket is going to follow suit, as will loanDepot and other wholesale companies until all that's left is ash, and perhaps 1-2 survivors.
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/uwm-drops-rates-50-to-100-basis-points-in-bid-for-brokers/#:~:text=UWM dropped rates by 50,maximum of 40 basis points.


So where are mortgage rates REALLY headed? No one knows, and the Fed is still going to throw another .75 rate hike on the bonfire soon. Here's the link to Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey. As of 7/18 the average standard conforming closed loan rate was 5.54 at a cost of about .80 in fees. Although this was from 7/18, it's really from 7/1 because the pricing is for closed loans which locked around 7/1.
https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

Watch this site as it's reliable, then compare with what's being sold on the street level via Bankrate, Mortgage News Daily, and other comparative sites.

My ..02c

 

[luckybuxtonhomeloans]

It's fascinating to observe the current dynamics in the mortgage market, particularly with major players like Rocket Mortgage and UWM influencing rate movements. mortgage lender trends can also be significantly impacted by these shifts. UWM's aggressive rate strategy, driven by Matt Ishbia, exemplifies a competitive approach that, while unsustainable in the long term, aims to dominate the market temporarily.

Given the uncertainty, predicting where mortgage rates will go remains challenging. The Federal Reserve's actions, such as the anticipated .75 rate hike, further complicate the landscape. For the most accurate and current data, checking Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey is advisable. This provides a reliable benchmark for understanding broader market trends compared to localized offers found on platforms like Bankrate and Mortgage News Daily.

Understanding these market forces can help you make more informed decisions, whether you're considering refinancing or securing a new mortgage.

 

[sgip]

In case you were wondering why rates didn't drop following the Fed's rate decision today........ This happens often after a Fed Funds Rate Cut, but eventually mortgage rates will come down some. Not always a full 1/2 point, but some reductions will come.

Yes! Mortgage Rates Really Did Move HIGHER After The Fed Rate Cut

We publish daily coverage of mortgage rate movement and have done so for nearly 20 years now. It's a great place to quickly check in on rate trends and to get a sense of what's true and what matters. If you'd been checking in at any point in the past few days/weeks, you likely saw one of...

www.mortgagenewsdaily.com

 

[OCtoSV]

In case you were wondering why rates didn't drop following the Fed's rate decision today........ This happens often after a Fed Funds Rate Cut, but eventually mortgage rates will come down some. Not always a full 1/2 point, but some reductions will come.

Yes! Mortgage Rates Really Did Move HIGHER After The Fed Rate Cut

We publish daily coverage of mortgage rate movement and have done so for nearly 20 years now. It's a great place to quickly check in on rate trends and to get a sense of what's true and what matters. If you'd been checking in at any point in the past few days/weeks, you likely saw one of...

www.mortgagenewsdaily.com

10 year even edged slightly higher. My broker recently offered me a no fee 5.875 refi down from the 6.5 conforming we got in March.