Housing prices and the boomer factor

Daedalus_IHB

New member
<p>What are the odds that retirement and downsizing of baby boomer will overlap the current housing downcycle to affect the severity and/or duration? Will there be too much of an overhang to see much appreciation in home prices for 20 years, or will there not be much of a measurable effect? There are many years to spread out the supply from boomers giving up their houses, but I'm guessing we're tallking about 30 million homes...maybe 1 million homes per year or more. I bet someone has looked into this more deeply and has some logical estimates (bkshopr?)</p>
 
<a target="_blank" href="http://www.bubbleinfo.com/">Jim Klinge</a> discusses the boomer impact from time to time. His feeling is that two story product will get hammered far worse than single story for obvious reasons.
 
Many boomers bought resale in older 1950’s communities or bought brand new in 70’s communities. The 50’s communities with just a few exceptions were poorly planned and most of it one will finds near the OC/LA county borders. Communities like Stanton, Buena Park, Cypress, La Mirada, Norwalk Hawaiian Garden, Lakewood, Bellflower, and Fountain Valley are just to name a few. These communities IMO are boomers’ family home and their resale are usually at the bottom of the price ladder due to poor quality of construction and the lack of amenities to appeal to lifestyle of young families and picky home buyers. The schools are old and outdated. Children population decreased over the years caused schools closing their doors. The 50’s communities just can not compete with the current master planned communities. Buyers who purchase in these locations usually know somebody living there or someone wanted to move away from their ghettos neighborhood just on the other side of the freeway.



Some other 50’s communities are Emerald Cove, Irvine Terrace and Corona Del Mar at the other end of the spectrum. Most rarely comes on the market and out of reached by most buyers.



Boomers who bought new during the 70’s are places like Cerritos, Irvine, Tustin, Lake Forest, MV, and Laguna Niguel will have some effect in the resale in the current market but the floor plans from this era were poorly designed by contractors and builders without the artistic talent of architects. However the bigger yards and single story are the only saving grace of these properties. Those without decent size land will suffer with greatest discount to the buyers. Few Asians like to live in a used home with unknown karma. That is about 38% of the current buyer demographic loss and 70% of the demographic who actually qualify with adequate down payment and loan approval.



The single story plan is rare in todays new home market and it will continue to draw the mature population.
 
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