Housing Analysis
- Thread starter eyephone
- Start date
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
irvinehomeowner said:
Re-asking since you're asking me questions.
?CNBC article: Toll Brothers gives disappointing guidance; CEO blames media for housing slowdown
Yet, U.S. Census data show new home sales have declined for 11 straight months
In October, sales of newly built homes fell 12 percent from a year earlier, even though the median price for new homes dropped. Economists have said the decline in new home sales stems from weakened affordability across U.S. local markets. The housing market has begun showing signs of cracking this year, while real estate brokers are saying that offers for homes have thinned out.?
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/04/tol...-of-housing-slowdown-for-slowing-housing.html
My comment:
Why blame the media for the housing slow down? Shouldn?t people be informed? Is it a bad thing for people to do their due dilegence?
If the demand is way lower for a product. How about lower the price of the product? (Very simple concept. Don?t need an advanced degree to figure that out or do you? *wink)
Yet, U.S. Census data show new home sales have declined for 11 straight months
In October, sales of newly built homes fell 12 percent from a year earlier, even though the median price for new homes dropped. Economists have said the decline in new home sales stems from weakened affordability across U.S. local markets. The housing market has begun showing signs of cracking this year, while real estate brokers are saying that offers for homes have thinned out.?
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/04/tol...-of-housing-slowdown-for-slowing-housing.html
My comment:
Why blame the media for the housing slow down? Shouldn?t people be informed? Is it a bad thing for people to do their due dilegence?
If the demand is way lower for a product. How about lower the price of the product? (Very simple concept. Don?t need an advanced degree to figure that out or do you? *wink)
I wouldn't blame the media for reporting the facts but I hate some of the headlines that are just trying to grab attention and give an impression the housing market is totally tanking right now but it is not.
Housing market is indeed slowing down, shifting from a hot seller's market towards a more neutral market, but still not a national wide price decline, not a total buyer's market yet.
Will the housing market goes into a full downturn with a wide spread of price decline? Maybe, but we are not there yet and some of headlines read like it is already there.
Housing market is indeed slowing down, shifting from a hot seller's market towards a more neutral market, but still not a national wide price decline, not a total buyer's market yet.
Will the housing market goes into a full downturn with a wide spread of price decline? Maybe, but we are not there yet and some of headlines read like it is already there.
Irvinecommuter
New member
lnc said:
Sure but for the CEO of a major homebuilder to blame "headlines" for the downturn in housing sales is pretty reckless.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
He should have said it's seasonal.
Wellsfargo rates today for conforming 30 year were 4.375. Several months ago they were 5.125. This .75% difference in rates is significant as it basically means that you can afford 8.5% more house at 4.375% compared to 5.125%. USCtrojan commented that price gains from first half of the year were about 5% which was basically lost by the end of the year. Doing the math, a person who bought a house in June of 2018 would have paid 13.5% more for the exact same house compared to buying that house today.
Several people gave Eyephone crap for telling people to wait to purchase a house. They said rates were climbing so any price declines would be washed out. Some claimed there will be no price reductions, but rather price increases. I realize hindsight is 20/20 but a 13.5% savings in 6 months seems worth it to me.
Several people gave Eyephone crap for telling people to wait to purchase a house. They said rates were climbing so any price declines would be washed out. Some claimed there will be no price reductions, but rather price increases. I realize hindsight is 20/20 but a 13.5% savings in 6 months seems worth it to me.
This is what I posted in the ?markets ? thread over the weekend. Lower rates does not come as a surprise to me as I have been calling for people to ignore the gloom and doom about rates for the entire year now ? finally you have the ideal combo of Softer prices to go along with it ...
From Jan 4, 2018 ?-
?Fed speeches getting more dovish I will see what Powell says today
Maybe this is the wrong thread for this ? but just as smart people have locked in lower rates recently , if you are homebuyer for a primary residence ? you need to also be thinking ...
Think of this scenario ? fed turns dovish on rates ? trump calls ceasefire w Chiina ? pboc keeps cutting rates ? semi stocks stabilize ? s&p hits 15 percents from here ...
Not saying above happens but there is decent probability it does ? you will kick yourself for not having acted and being stuck in analysis paralysis when rates were low and you could have negotiated a great discounted deal for yourself?
From Jan 4, 2018 ?-
?Fed speeches getting more dovish I will see what Powell says today
Maybe this is the wrong thread for this ? but just as smart people have locked in lower rates recently , if you are homebuyer for a primary residence ? you need to also be thinking ...
Think of this scenario ? fed turns dovish on rates ? trump calls ceasefire w Chiina ? pboc keeps cutting rates ? semi stocks stabilize ? s&p hits 15 percents from here ...
Not saying above happens but there is decent probability it does ? you will kick yourself for not having acted and being stuck in analysis paralysis when rates were low and you could have negotiated a great discounted deal for yourself?