Ready2Downsize
Well-known member
Maybe they have multiple houses. Our buyer didn't even show up till they owned the house for 3+ months and then only to stay a week.
Home sales weaken as Chinese investors sour on US real estate!!!
- Thread starter RHOC
- Start date
Paris167
New member
nyc to oc said:
So what happened with 113 Sunset Cv? On the market only 1 week for $2.59 with full price offer, multiple offer situation as well. Property already closed escrow. I think if the property is upgraded to a standard that justifies price and is priced right for the market, despite being in a >$2mil range, there will be demand for it. Problem is people with terrible interior design choices, no upgrades or older homes/floor plans trying to overprice properties and hope they get "lucky" with a FCB.
Paris said:
Yes, the truly special properties may snag one of the few buyers who can and are willing to spend the $$$$.But those unicorns don't represent the general market. I don't think there's enough buyers to absorb all the rest of the regular inventory that is sitting and sitting at >$2 million.
Ready2Downsize
Well-known member
The high end will ALWAYS move slower because there are fewer who can afford it.
The lower end rise in prices cannot grow infinitely without the high end eventually rising because who would buy a lower end home if they could get a larger home in the same area for the same price or not that much different? Supply/demand would prevent such an occurrence from happening.
The lower end rise in prices cannot grow infinitely without the high end eventually rising because who would buy a lower end home if they could get a larger home in the same area for the same price or not that much different? Supply/demand would prevent such an occurrence from happening.
80%+ of the owners in HC that I have met are from other irvine and coastal communities. I've met people from quail hill, Woodbury, orchard hills, turtle ridge, shady canyon, laguna altura, and even from newport coast. It's actually a pretty diverse group. Frankly, I think the chinese money is flowing to other more affordable locations that have a greater potential for higher percentage gains. It seems people buy in HC because they want to live there. It's probably not the best place to just park your money.
Cornflakes
Active member
USCTrojanCPA said:
Amen.
Just the other day I was reading up somewhere how many new office buildings, hotels and apartment buildings are going up at a moment in Irvine. It tells me that Irvine is in expansion phase for the professional, white collar jobs that offers enough wages to support those 2k-3k monthly rents in Irvine apartments and requires business travel (as opposed to manufacturing jobs). Going to my work, everyday I see business travelers exiting Uber cars and cabs to get to whichever offices they are visiting. Irvine offers this unique value where people can get out of airport and make it to the business in 15 minute, in any direction. Of course an airport is run smoothly to support business travel without hiccups.
On a different note, Parking is always an issue no matter where you go in Irvine - Spectrum, marketplace, District, DJ, or those business parks.
In summary, all the humming economic activity in Irvine is certainly not dependent on FCBs. If FCBs stop buying, and therefore ratcheting up the appreciation, sure other buyers would be more than happy to sweep in to live closer to work, have better schools, and so on.
I do not buy that 80% of new homes are going to FCBs. Past few years I have lived in two of the newer villages in Irvine and I can tell, while there is a % of FCBs that had bought new home and immediately rented out, it is nowhere close to 4/5 homes. The new homes in BP are mostly bought by young families. Yes, there are some buy and rent it out purchases, but they are one or two homes in each phase, which is well below 40%.
Cornflakes
Active member
renter1 said:
Is it over 400?
That would make 80% of may be 500 some homes sold so far.
FCB's don't just buy and rent it out. I'd say most do live in them. Some have it as parked asset, second home, and few basically never lived in.
Also about new office buildings, are they TIC, they don't necessarily mean companies are lining up to move in. I've been told they have a pretty high vacancy in their portfolio because they can.
Also about new office buildings, are they TIC, they don't necessarily mean companies are lining up to move in. I've been told they have a pretty high vacancy in their portfolio because they can.
I can see 80% of new home buyer are Asian. But calling 80% of these new home buyer are Chinese or suggesting 80% of these buyer are FCB is just grossly over exaggerated.
All cash purchases are around 30 to 35% of all purchase and I'm pretty sure not all of them are FCB purchase. Also base on my community, absentee owner purchase of new home are around 20% and not all of them are purchase by Chinese investors.
Of course there will be impact on housing by the fall out of Chinese investors, but not all cities nor the price level of the home will feel the impact equally. I believe the impact on Irvine and on all price ranges in Irvine will be very small compared to other high Chinese concentrate cities.
All cash purchases are around 30 to 35% of all purchase and I'm pretty sure not all of them are FCB purchase. Also base on my community, absentee owner purchase of new home are around 20% and not all of them are purchase by Chinese investors.
Of course there will be impact on housing by the fall out of Chinese investors, but not all cities nor the price level of the home will feel the impact equally. I believe the impact on Irvine and on all price ranges in Irvine will be very small compared to other high Chinese concentrate cities.
Cornflakes said:
I dont think anyone said 80% of all new homes go to foreign chinese. Rather, anecdotally, one person said they saw 80% chinese buyers in their one neighborhood. Clearly I do not think anyone believes that 80% of all new homes are bought by Chinese. Anecdotally, I would say in my village, I would estimate 40%, although if I base it on what I see when I go to the neighborhood playgrounds, it would be more like 70%.
lnc said:
If you were at the HC sales office last year, you would know that their initial sales were mostly asian cash buyers(I was personally told by both project agents). I was personally told most/ almost all large lots were sold to all cash buyers(FCB). Also, I know those "All cash buyers" have minimize to very few and hence they now have the highest inventory they ever have had since their inception. The bottom line is the fewer FCB will finally allow Irvine market to have a more realistic value on their properties and I realize that this is a hard reality for Irvine peeps!
Ready2Downsize
Well-known member
There are some of us who are not FCB, not Asian who bought their houses for cash and have enough cash to buy another in case prices do come down in Irvine, right? I don't expect high end homes to come down significantly unless the rest of Irvine does and only if the rest of the OC does because there are people who can and will buy in a heart beat should that happen.
just stumbled on this re: rich Chinese female in Vancouver - seems slightly relevant. my wife has a few Chinese clients escaping Vancouver because they are being priced out (yep) so they are now considering a more "affordable" Irvine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MFJBgsr939c
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MFJBgsr939c
Irvine Dream
New member
my take is that FCBs or not a price correction is coming to Irvine, possibly as early as 2017 Spring and more than likely by 2018 spring. The no.of Irvine listings have been steadily increasing from last (2015) Fall. Currently there are close to 900 listings of which 402 listings show a price reduction (226 within the past 30 days and 176 with price reduction that occurred more than 30 days prior)
A call for crash in Irvine is linked to a call on crash in US and global equity markets .
Many " smart " and " sophisticated " people have been calling for a stock market crash for many years going and missed out on the central-bank-gifted appreciation over these few years .
Similar dire predictions for housing crash abound but while there will be a sales slow down and some froth coming off of WTF listing prices , don't expect a crash to hand you that dream house you have been waiting on. There is still lot of money on sidelines that will start a bidding war for any property priced " cheap " .
Think of it this way -- a slowdown has already happened -- meaning sellers and builders are actually negotiating with potential buyers as opposed to treating them callously in favor of FCBs and the frustrating experience of bidding wars. This is a big improvement in an of itself , compared to 2014 and early 2015 .
Many " smart " and " sophisticated " people have been calling for a stock market crash for many years going and missed out on the central-bank-gifted appreciation over these few years .
Similar dire predictions for housing crash abound but while there will be a sales slow down and some froth coming off of WTF listing prices , don't expect a crash to hand you that dream house you have been waiting on. There is still lot of money on sidelines that will start a bidding war for any property priced " cheap " .
Think of it this way -- a slowdown has already happened -- meaning sellers and builders are actually negotiating with potential buyers as opposed to treating them callously in favor of FCBs and the frustrating experience of bidding wars. This is a big improvement in an of itself , compared to 2014 and early 2015 .
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
Irvine Dream said:
Where you getting your listing numbers from? As of 9pm on 8/13/16, there are only 684 active listings in Irvine which is basically flat with last year at this time while sales are up. That means we have about 2.5 months of active inventory which is a weak seller's market. If you took out 1.5m+ home listings the amount of inventory is below 2 months of inventory. I said it before, if we didn't have new homes for sale resale home prices would be increasing.