HOLY SMOKES : Did i read this right? Dow below 10,000 S&P;1,100 Nasdaq 1500. Is this possible by October?

[quote author="PANDA" date=1220650268]The Nasdaq, DOW, and S&P is getting creamed this week. Opimus, I may take on your $50 wager by end of this month.



About two weeks ago, I found out that some crazy Fidelity broker put my Poor Mother Panda's entire retirement money in three Fidelity Technology Funds, and I immediately liquided her entire portfolio on August 28th, 2008 as she is not even looking at her retirement money going down the drain. I told Panda's mom, from this point forward, I will look over your retirement money. When you are turning 59 in a half in two years, you don't mess around with technology funds.

It is time to open up that Everbank Money Market account for Mother Panda at 4.75% introductory money market account.</blockquote>


I told my mom, "Merry Christmas", here is your early christmas gift. I shared a story with you all when I was 21 years old ten years ago, I foolishly borrowed $20,000 from my mom and lost it all investing the full amount in internet stocks. Right before I got married i paid her back in full plus interest, as I felt very guilty for a long time. Now, I have saved my mom more than $20,000 by selling out her entire retirement money late August, and taking IPOs advice on putting that money in some of the best money market rates like Everbank. I also allocated 15% to GLD at $78 share price. So in total, I saved her $20,000 and made her quite a bit of money on Gold so far.



I have to say that, at a personal level, this feels very good. The wisdom in all this is to be good to your parents while they are still alive. I know that i would of never been able to forgive myself, if something had happened to my mom and passed away, and i was not able to pay her back the $20,000.



Panda.
 
As long as the "Plunge Protection Team" keeps jumping in every time

they think the market is going to tank we will never have the "Capitulation"

that we need to form a market bottom. Its going to be ugly but it needs to

happen or the psychological effect is lost. The fire in the theatre still burns

as long as they keep fighting it. Let the fire burn out. Then we can start to rebuild.

It just may have something to do with the election ? Just a chance ?
 
Here is a thought that I presented to a buddy of mine this morning over coffee as to why DOW will go to 7K or even lower.



It's basically babyboomers. There is no explanation as to why DOW was at 14K other than the money supply. Babyboomers threw a lot of money into their retirements and not necessarily being smart about it either. More money than ever has flowed into the stock market the past 10 years then ever. Doesn't this artificially inflate stocks?



I mean if a stock is at XX/share and the 5 interested buyers now jumped to 10 buyers because 5 new people decided they want to invest in the stock market, doesn't that artificially inflate the value of the company or the market as a whole? More money is available now and people will buy something. So as an average everything will go up...How do you compensate the value of a company if the volume of people or money increases in the market. Does the old P/E ratio of 10 become a new P/E ratio of 20?



So now that the babyboomers got burned in the stockmarket with a little time left to retirement, many are pulling out of the market and either sitting on their cash or placing it in safe securities. That huge amount of money that flooded the market will no longer return into the market. We could see a crash and a flat stock market for years and years.



Now that doesn't mean that there won't be sectors or even specific companies that will significantly outperform, but I don't think placing your money in the SP500 is the way to go. You will have to do more homework as an individual and carefuly choose where you stick your money, as some of us already do.



The whole notion here is just follow the money...which is a big "duh".



I'm just curious of what people think to the fact that babyboomers caused an inflated economy and as they start pulling money out of the market (which we will never see again), where will that leave us...



Oh and same can be applied to housing. We built more homes than the growth of population. As babyboomers start downsizing to condos/apartments or even passing away, wouldn't that put even more pressure on value of homes as the supply will significantly increase?



Anyway, just had a thought this morning sorry for the ramble...maybe i'm over analyzing this or my thoughts might even be flawed...
 
In my view, anybody who is calling for the Dow/S&P/NASDAQ to reach level x in y time is just making shit up. Don't want to be rude here, but...



I mean, if you actually get your hands on REAL fundamental analysis reports of companies (most people never do), not just the 2-paragraph blogs or 5-minute TV segments we have nowadays that passes for analysis, you realize most are 30-100 pages and cover an enormous amount of factors that could affect a SINGLE company. How people can just basically made predictions on the behavior of the entire investor population of the US over the next next ten years with a one-sentence theory is beyond me.



Babyboomers leaving is certainly a factor. But ascribing everything that happened to the S&P index in the last ten years to babyboomers is extremely simplistic. There's just too many moving parts to make anything but the weakest guess as to what will happen over the next ten years, ESPECIALLY if your theory is severely counter-trend as yours is. Add inflation or deflation to the mix, and the nomimal value of the Dow at that point actually doesn't even tell us if Dow 7000 means we'll be poorer or richer.



Also, having more market participants does not automatically mean everybody gets richer. The money babyboomers pull out of stocks has to be recycled in the economy somewhere else, and that's more likely than not to show up as a company profit somewhere.



Now the Dow may hit 7000 next week for all I know. But if it does it'll have nothing to do with babyboomers passing away, so it wouldn't prove the theory right. In fact, it's an unprovable theory. If the dow hits 7,000 within some timeframe we will never be able to know if babyboomers were a factor, but it'll make great cocktail conversations :).
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1223507753][quote author="PANDA" date=1220650268]The Nasdaq, DOW, and S&P is getting creamed this week. Opimus, I may take on your $50 wager by end of this month.



About two weeks ago, I found out that some crazy Fidelity broker put my Poor Mother Panda's entire retirement money in three Fidelity Technology Funds, and I immediately liquidated her entire portfolio on August 28th, 2008 as she is not even looking at her retirement money going down the drain. I told Panda's mom, from this point forward, I will look over your retirement money. When you are turning 59 in a half in two years, you don't mess around with technology funds.

It is time to open up that Everbank Money Market account for Mother Panda at 4.75% introductory money market account.</blockquote>


I told my mom, "Merry Christmas", here is your early christmas gift. I shared a story with you all when I was 21 years old ten years ago, I foolishly borrowed $20,000 from my mom and lost it all investing the full amount in internet stocks. Right before I got married i paid her back in full plus interest, as I felt very guilty for a long time. Now, I have saved my mom more than $20,000 by selling out her entire retirement money late August, and taking IPOs advice on putting that money in some of the best money market rates like Everbank. I also allocated 15% to GLD at $78 share price. So in total, I saved her $20,000 and made her quite a bit of money on Gold so far.



I have to say that, at a personal level, this feels very good. The wisdom in all this is to be good to your parents while they are still alive. I know that i would of never been able to forgive myself, if something had happened to my mom and passed away, and i was not able to pay her back the $20,000.



Panda.</blockquote>


Good for you Panda...



I failed, my new father-in-law was in hospice last May, he handled all the finances, my new mother-in-law was clueless. I was organizing her bills, financials and found that my late father-in-law's retirement was all invested in risky equities. I pleaded with my mother in law to liquidate the equities and put her money into safe interest bearing safe accounts. She wouldn't listen to me and also was adamant she didn't want to take the losses she already had. I told her that money's not coming back and she needed to preserve what she had. Now I only pray that social security doesn't go belly up because that what she's going to be living on.
 
<blockquote>I failed, my new father-in-law was in hospice last May, he handled all the finances, my new mother-in-law was clueless. I was organizing her bills, financials and found that my late father-in-law?s retirement was all invested in risky equities. I pleaded with my mother in law to liquidate the equities and put her money into safe interest bearing safe accounts. She wouldn?t listen to me and also was adamant she didn?t want to take the losses she already had. I told her that money?s not coming back and she needed to preserve what she had. Now I only pray that social security doesn?t go belly up because that what she?s going to be living on. </blockquote>
About six months ago I told my mother she should take her retirement money out of the stock market and put it into IRA CDs. Thanks to you all, I gave her my best case. She told me she was perfectly capable of taking care of her own money and she and her husband had it completely under control. A few days later, I had my husband call her and he told her the same with more facts, figures, etc. We basically did everything except beg her. In her own beat-around-the-bush way, she told me that she was the adult and I was the child and that I should mind my own business with her finances.



I dropped the subject and she chose to ignore us.



A few days ago she actually called me and told me that she wished we were more stern with her. She was basically trying to put the blame on me! I couldn't believe what I was hearing. My only response was to ask her if my husband and I tried to get her to move her money, and did she not tell me to basically mind my own business when it came to her finances. She did give me that acknowledgement. I then changed the subject because I was soooo mad. :coolmad:
 
[quote author="muzie" date=1223514126]In my view, anybody who is calling for the Dow/S&P/NASDAQ to reach level x in y time is just making shit up. Don't want to be rude here, but...



I mean, if you actually get your hands on REAL fundamental analysis reports of companies (most people never do), not just the 2-paragraph blogs or 5-minute TV segments we have nowadays that passes for analysis, you realize most are 30-100 pages and cover an enormous amount of factors that could affect a SINGLE company. How people can just basically made predictions on the behavior of the entire investor population of the US over the next next ten years with a one-sentence theory is beyond me.



Babyboomers leaving is certainly a factor. But ascribing everything that happened to the S&P index in the last ten years to babyboomers is extremely simplistic. There's just too many moving parts to make anything but the weakest guess as to what will happen over the next ten years, ESPECIALLY if your theory is severely counter-trend as yours is. Add inflation or deflation to the mix, and the nomimal value of the Dow at that point actually doesn't even tell us if Dow 7000 means we'll be poorer or richer.



Also, having more market participants does not automatically mean everybody gets richer. The money babyboomers pull out of stocks has to be recycled in the economy somewhere else, and that's more likely than not to show up as a company profit somewhere.



Now the Dow may hit 7000 next week for all I know. But if it does it'll have nothing to do with babyboomers passing away, so it wouldn't prove the theory right. In fact, it's an unprovable theory. If the dow hits 7,000 within some timeframe we will never be able to know if babyboomers were a factor, but it'll make great cocktail conversations :).</blockquote>


You're right. It can't be proven. By saying DOW to 7K, i'm simply trying to place a value on the market, and I guess I don't really know how to do that anymore. P/E ratios don't really apply and are out the window. I've watched a stock go from 30 a share to 270 a share and no signs yet of it coming down. I said to my buddy when the stock was at 100 that its overpriced as its P/E ratio was well over 150. The fact that its P/E ratio today has more than doubled from 150 is beyond me, but thats how the market works these days.



Its not based on fundamentals, its simply a grown mans gambling casino. You could buy a solid company, but if a hedge fund decides to get their hands on it they can artificially move the company causing you to lose big time even if things are solid.



I guess just follow the next hot item and get out before you get trampled by the herd exiting. Stock market these days is more psychology than anything.
 
<blockquote>You could buy a solid company, but if a hedge fund decides to get their hands on it they can artificially move the company causing you to lose big time even if things are solid. </blockquote>
Yup - hedge funds can turn things around very quickly.
 
<blockquote>You could buy a solid company, but if a hedge fund decides to get their hands on it they can artificially move the company causing you to lose big time even if things are solid. </blockquote>


if a hedge fund did such a thing, there'd be 100 other guys whether hedge funds, private equity, or pension funds swooping in to gobble that company up at a discount. it's a nice excuse but how many times have we seen solid companies cry foul at hedge funds and short sellers driving down their stock price, only to find out the solid company was in fact hollow.
 
[quote author="acpme" date=1223518672]<blockquote>You could buy a solid company, but if a hedge fund decides to get their hands on it they can artificially move the company causing you to lose big time even if things are solid. </blockquote>


if a hedge fund did such a thing, there'd be 100 other guys whether hedge funds, private equity, or pension funds swooping in to gobble that company up at a discount. it's a nice excuse but how many times have we seen solid companies cry foul at hedge funds and short sellers driving down their stock price, only to find out the solid company was in fact hollow.</blockquote>


Just ask TPG how well their WaMu trade went. It can go both ways. Hedge funds/private equity can be right, and they can be wrong. In this case a couple of a billion dollars wrong. Then ask Einhorn how his Lehman trade went. It shows that in fact the whiners over at Lehman who wanted to show Einhorn who was better, was, well, terribly wrong.



It's not the hedge funds silly, it's the companies that are crap are crap, and those that are solid are solid.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1220434360]Sorry, Optimus,



I don't bet on the short term.</blockquote>


PANDA ...congrats on the good DOW under 10,000 call.



Too bad you never bet, you'd have an extra $50.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1223152971][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1223099861][quote author="blackvault" date=1223099242][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1223095971][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1223093723][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1223081689]If any of you were watching the markets today, it was interesting how sellers waited for the bailout announcement and used the strength of the euphoria to sell into volume. Rather than seeing a big rally as everyone anticipated, the sellers came in and ruined the party.</blockquote>


I was doing a little "I'm all cash" dance at my desk as the market was selling off by 4% intraday. Might have broken through some downside support levels today. Look out below!</blockquote>


Yes, the fact that there was no rally off the bailout is a very, very bad sign for the market. What kind of news would it take to cause a rally at this point?</blockquote>


The bailout is already priced in the market. I think people already expected it to pass through so the markets really just remained calm. If the House failed to pass, you would have seen blood.</blockquote>


I think we are about to witness the market price in a severe recession caused by our dysfunctional credit markets.



In case anyone didn't notice, one of the three predictions of the title of this thread came true today. The S&P closed at 1,099.23.</blockquote>


Hey Optimus,



You have to refresh Panda's memory. Did we ever agree to a bet of $50 that the DOW will get below 10,500 before year end?</blockquote>


Refreshed you above. LOL ..Panda. Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda.
 
As far as prognostication is concerned.

Dont forget even a broken watch is correct twice a day.



We still have a huge bottom to form. This could be way worse than

anticipated. At least from the equity perspective.

The Markets are off over 30-35% YTD. And we could see another 20%

at a minimum.



Here we go into the last few minutes again. Market looks like a submarine

going back underwater.
 
[quote author="optimusprime" date=1223520162][quote author="PANDA" date=1220434360]Sorry, Optimus,



I don't bet on the short term.</blockquote>


PANDA ...congrats on the good DOW under 10,000 call.



Too bad you never bet, you'd have an extra $50.</blockquote>


Optimus,

Like you would of paid up $50 had i really took you up on the bet.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1223521410][quote author="optimusprime" date=1223520162][quote author="PANDA" date=1220434360]Sorry, Optimus,



I don't bet on the short term.</blockquote>


PANDA ...congrats on the good DOW under 10,000 call.



Too bad you never bet, you'd have an extra $50.</blockquote>


Optimus,

Like you would of paid up $50 had i really took you up on the bet.</blockquote>


YES I WOULD HAVE YOU PIECE OF $HIT!!

<em>

Friendly wager than Panda.... $50.



If the Dow drops below 10,000 from now until Dec. 31, 2008....you win. If not, then I win.



We will use the honor system and refer to this thread....you post here often and I come on here all the time, I think I registered since early 2007. Plus we have tons of IHB witnesses.



You up for the bet? </em>
 
"Dont forget even a broken watch is correct twice a day. "



so today when the mkt was down i covered some more and felt really smart when the mkt recovered. now it looks like they'll end the day down 1~2%.

i was right and wrong again. :)
 
[quote author="optimusprime" date=1223521703][quote author="PANDA" date=1223521410][quote author="optimusprime" date=1223520162][quote author="PANDA" date=1220434360]Sorry, Optimus,



I don't bet on the short term.</blockquote>


PANDA ...congrats on the good DOW under 10,000 call.



Too bad you never bet, you'd have an extra $50.</blockquote>


Optimus,

Like you would of paid up $50 had i really took you up on the bet.</blockquote>


YES I WOULD HAVE YOU PIECE OF $HIT!!

<em>

Friendly wager than Panda.... $50.



If the Dow drops below 10,000 from now until Dec. 31, 2008....you win. If not, then I win.



We will use the honor system and refer to this thread....you post here often and I come on here all the time, I think I registered since early 2007. Plus we have tons of IHB witnesses.



You up for the bet? </em></blockquote>




"YES I WOULD HAVE YOU PIECE OF $HIT!!"



Now my little pimple Optimus, was that type of language necessary on a friendly public forum like this? Either you lost a lot of money or you don't like the Panda very much. Weren't you the fella telling me that Gold is headed down towards $600. Watch Gold prices soar to between $1000 - $1200 before year end.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1223523184][quote author="optimusprime" date=1223521703][quote author="PANDA" date=1223521410][quote author="optimusprime" date=1223520162][quote author="PANDA" date=1220434360]Sorry, Optimus,



I don't bet on the short term.</blockquote>


PANDA ...congrats on the good DOW under 10,000 call.



Too bad you never bet, you'd have an extra $50.</blockquote>


Optimus,

Like you would of paid up $50 had i really took you up on the bet.</blockquote>


YES I WOULD HAVE YOU PIECE OF $HIT!!

<em>

Friendly wager than Panda.... $50.



If the Dow drops below 10,000 from now until Dec. 31, 2008....you win. If not, then I win.



We will use the honor system and refer to this thread....you post here often and I come on here all the time, I think I registered since early 2007. Plus we have tons of IHB witnesses.



You up for the bet? </em></blockquote>




YOU PIECE OF $HIT!!



Now my little pimple Optimus, was that type of language necessary on a friendly public forum like this? Either you lost a lot of money or you don't like the Panda very much.</blockquote>


I don't like people who doubt my integrity. I am the one that offered the bet to you. Why would I waste my time if I have zero intention to pay?



You're a piece of $HIT. I am sure I am not alone in thinking that way.



You have a good way of NOT enduring yourself...in fact I think you perfect the art of annoyance.



Lost a lot of money, sure, I lost probably 20% in my 401k, but so have others. I don't go around proclaiming my genius with my little $10,000 account ..keep pounding your chest Panda.
 
[quote author="optimusprime" date=1223523310][quote author="PANDA" date=1223523184][quote author="optimusprime" date=1223521703][quote author="PANDA" date=1223521410][quote author="optimusprime" date=1223520162][quote author="PANDA" date=1220434360]Sorry, Optimus,



I don't bet on the short term.</blockquote>


PANDA ...congrats on the good DOW under 10,000 call.



Too bad you never bet, you'd have an extra $50.</blockquote>


Optimus,

Like you would of paid up $50 had i really took you up on the bet.</blockquote>


YES I WOULD HAVE YOU PIECE OF $HIT!!

<em>

Friendly wager than Panda.... $50.



If the Dow drops below 10,000 from now until Dec. 31, 2008....you win. If not, then I win.



We will use the honor system and refer to this thread....you post here often and I come on here all the time, I think I registered since early 2007. Plus we have tons of IHB witnesses.



You up for the bet? </em></blockquote>




YOU PIECE OF $HIT!!



Now my little pimple Optimus, was that type of language necessary on a friendly public forum like this? Either you lost a lot of money or you don't like the Panda very much.</blockquote>


I don't like people who doubt my integrity. I am the one that offered the bet to you. Why would I waste my time if I have zero intention to pay?



You're a piece of $HIT. I am sure I am not alone in thinking that way.



You have a good way of NOT enduring yourself...in fact I think you perfect the art of annoyance.



Lost a lot of money, sure, I lost probably 20% in my 401k, but so have others. I don't go around proclaiming my genius with my little $10,000 account ..keep pounding your chest Panda.</blockquote>


YOU ARE WRONG!! All of my bank and brokerage accounts add up $9,000! "Proclaming my Genius"? Dude, I am just a WANNA BE, now Awgee and Irvine Renter, those guys are REAL geniuses.
 
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