HOLY SMOKES : Did i read this right? Dow below 10,000 S&P;1,100 Nasdaq 1500. Is this possible by October?

This guy thinks that DOW will get down to 5,000 and Gold to hit $2000? Today the precious metals got its butt kicked. Is 5,000 DOW possible under current conditions?? Perhaps we REALLY are headed for 1930s Great Depression or this guy is smoking too much pot. What do you guys think?



Billion-Dollar Fund Manager; Gold To Hit $2,000, Dow To Sink To 5,000

http://www.prisonplanet.com/billion-dollar-fund-manager-gold-to-hit-2000-dow-to-sink-to-5000.html



Paul Joseph Watson

Prison Planet

Wednesday, October 1, 2008



Billion dollar fund manager David Tice says that the Federal Reserve?s ceaseless printing of dollars could cause gold to surge past $2,000 an ounce, while the Dow could fall below 5,000.



Tice, who manages the $1.1 billion Prudent Bear Mutual Funds from the Virgin Islands, told Bloomberg TV anchor Carol Massar yesterday that the time scale of his forecast will be determined by how quickly foreigners lose confidence in the dollar.



?Bernanke has essentially been known as, you know, possessing the printing press, etc. and, you know, it depends a lot on foreigners as far as how quickly they lose confidence in the dollar and what happens throughout the world as well,? Tice said.
 
I don't know what the bottom of the DOW would be but 5000 sounds too low, I would think more like 7-8000.



However, right now we are all panicked over the financials. GM may go BK. What will a BK GM do to the DOW? 1/4 of the auto dealers may close. Private schools will start layoffs as people put their kids back in public schools. More insurance companies are supposed to be on the brink of collapse (Hartford?). We still have twice as many banks as we need. Defense spending will have to fall in the next admin, especially if it's Obama. Then Lockheed and Boeing will decline. GM is cutting way back on web marketing... Google drops. If we start losing more insurance companies, GM and Chrysler than we are in for some serious punishment.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1223013097]This guy thinks that DOW will get down to 5,000 and Gold to hit $2000? Today the precious metals got its butt kicked. Is 5,000 DOW possible under current conditions?? Perhaps we REALLY are headed for 1930s Great Depression or this guy is smoking too much pot. What do you guys think?



Billion-Dollar Fund Manager; Gold To Hit $2,000, Dow To Sink To 5,000

http://www.prisonplanet.com/billion-dollar-fund-manager-gold-to-hit-2000-dow-to-sink-to-5000.html



Paul Joseph Watson

Prison Planet

Wednesday, October 1, 2008



Billion dollar fund manager David Tice says that the Federal Reserve?s ceaseless printing of dollars could cause gold to surge past $2,000 an ounce, while the Dow could fall below 5,000.



Tice, who manages the $1.1 billion Prudent Bear Mutual Funds from the Virgin Islands, told Bloomberg TV anchor Carol Massar yesterday that the time scale of his forecast will be determined by how quickly foreigners lose confidence in the dollar.



?Bernanke has essentially been known as, you know, possessing the printing press, etc. and, you know, it depends a lot on foreigners as far as how quickly they lose confidence in the dollar and what happens throughout the world as well,? Tice said.</blockquote>


Actually, when you start hearing <em>really </em>bearish forecasts, you are probably near the bottom.
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1223015902][quote author="PANDA" date=1223013097]This guy thinks that DOW will get down to 5,000 and Gold to hit $2000? Today the precious metals got its butt kicked. Is 5,000 DOW possible under current conditions?? Perhaps we REALLY are headed for 1930s Great Depression or this guy is smoking too much pot. What do you guys think?



Billion-Dollar Fund Manager; Gold To Hit $2,000, Dow To Sink To 5,000

http://www.prisonplanet.com/billion-dollar-fund-manager-gold-to-hit-2000-dow-to-sink-to-5000.html



Paul Joseph Watson

Prison Planet

Wednesday, October 1, 2008



Billion dollar fund manager David Tice says that the Federal Reserve?s ceaseless printing of dollars could cause gold to surge past $2,000 an ounce, while the Dow could fall below 5,000.



Tice, who manages the $1.1 billion Prudent Bear Mutual Funds from the Virgin Islands, told Bloomberg TV anchor Carol Massar yesterday that the time scale of his forecast will be determined by how quickly foreigners lose confidence in the dollar.



?Bernanke has essentially been known as, you know, possessing the printing press, etc. and, you know, it depends a lot on foreigners as far as how quickly they lose confidence in the dollar and what happens throughout the world as well,? Tice said.</blockquote>


Actually, when you start hearing <em>really </em>bearish forecasts, you are probably near the bottom.</blockquote>


That's what I've been thinking, maybe it's time to go long on aapl, they have really been beaten down in the last week.
 
It seems impossible to gage what "really bearish" is lately. Really bearish can turn to really really bearish. Now at 3x really bearish... consider the bottom called.
 
Roubini was in web conference today. Transcript on his site or WSJ.



He said "if your not 100% in cash you should be, maybe 5-10% in gold", now is not the time to be in equities.



Guess I'll stay in cash.
 
[quote author="skek" date=1223011778]Darn you, Deuce, you are going to make me put some thought into this, aren't you?



OK, my view is, all else being equal (and I will explain what that means in a moment), if we are in fact experiencing a massive asset deleveraging (and it appears that we are), I would like to get to the end of it sooner rather than later. I believe once we've purged the system, banks can commence lending again and economic life can begin to return to normal.



What does "all else being equal" mean in this context? Well, it assumes assets will fall by the same amount, adjusted for inflation regardless of the time horizon. It also assumes that a faster deleveraging doesn't cause panic or systemic collapse that would have been otherwise avoided if the same process was spread out over a longer period of time. I know those are a couple of big caveats, but given that no one knows the consequences of the bailout or doing nothing in advance, that's all I can give you at the moment. And keep in mind that the $700B we borrow today to "fix" this mess needs to be repaid in the future, which is a drag on future economic growth. I don't buy for a second that taxpayers are going to make a profit on this.



I'm not opposed to government action -- in fact, I think some government action will be required to get us out of this mess. But I do think that the bailout is a hastily concocted plan that throws a bunch of money at a situation that no one seems to understand. I've compared the comments of our elected officials about the economic crisis to comments from folks here like awgee, Nude, IrvineRenter, muzie, blackvault, FairEconomist, etc., and I'd trust the IHB brain trust to solve this problem over the House Banking Committee in a heartbeat.



I'm not a conspiracy theorist, and I don't believe in letting the entire system collapse to make a point, but I doubt that the bailout is going to accomplish anything more than prolonging the inevitable pain that we need to experience, at the expense of several years or more of our collective economic lives. Like Ipop said, the next ten years are going to be my prime earning years, the years where I save for retirement and my kids' education -- I don't want that decade squandered in an inflationary malaise if it can be avoided.</blockquote>


Damn there just not being enough time in the day to provide a proper response that skek and deuce deserve. I apologize for not having enough time to rant about this, I have been meaning to, with stats, facts, numbers, and all kinds of whimsical like crackercakes ideas. I see profit it the [strike]bailout[/strike] rescue plan, but maybe I am not seeing it all, and I really want to discus the huge windfall that could be made, if the thing were run properly and quickly, that "The Hammer" fund could have, or any other hedge fund could have if they had the means to do it. Even on an inflation adjusted basis. Give me $700bil, and I could make a couple trillion out of this "crisis", but it is a matter of what it can be and will be sold for. I also have an email to congress from a distressed asset trader coming.
 
If any of you were watching the markets today, it was interesting how sellers waited for the bailout announcement and used the strength of the euphoria to sell into volume. Rather than seeing a big rally as everyone anticipated, the sellers came in and ruined the party.
 
Remember the 20K I put in mutual funds just two days ago ? Just lost $950 bucks of it in 48 hours. Shoulda gone to Vegas.



Hopefully it'll bounce back a bit in the next day or two and I'll go back to all cash.



Man, that was stupid. :shut:
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1223081689]If any of you were watching the markets today, it was interesting how sellers waited for the bailout announcement and used the strength of the euphoria to sell into volume. Rather than seeing a big rally as everyone anticipated, the sellers came in and ruined the party.</blockquote>


I was doing a little "I'm all cash" dance at my desk as the market was selling off by 4% intraday. Might have broken through some downside support levels today. Look out below!
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1223093723][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1223081689]If any of you were watching the markets today, it was interesting how sellers waited for the bailout announcement and used the strength of the euphoria to sell into volume. Rather than seeing a big rally as everyone anticipated, the sellers came in and ruined the party.</blockquote>


I was doing a little "I'm all cash" dance at my desk as the market was selling off by 4% intraday. Might have broken through some downside support levels today. Look out below!</blockquote>


Yes, the fact that there was no rally off the bailout is a very, very bad sign for the market. What kind of news would it take to cause a rally at this point?
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1223095971][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1223093723][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1223081689]If any of you were watching the markets today, it was interesting how sellers waited for the bailout announcement and used the strength of the euphoria to sell into volume. Rather than seeing a big rally as everyone anticipated, the sellers came in and ruined the party.</blockquote>


I was doing a little "I'm all cash" dance at my desk as the market was selling off by 4% intraday. Might have broken through some downside support levels today. Look out below!</blockquote>


Yes, the fact that there was no rally off the bailout is a very, very bad sign for the market. What kind of news would it take to cause a rally at this point?</blockquote>


Upward revision to Q1 or Q2 GDP maybe. Better than expected read on Q3 GDP might do it...
 
[quote author="Trooper" date=1223097912]Just decided to cut my losses at $950, I'm back all cash. D*mn, d*mn, d*mn !!!</blockquote>


You will probably be happy soon enough.
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1223095971][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1223093723][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1223081689]If any of you were watching the markets today, it was interesting how sellers waited for the bailout announcement and used the strength of the euphoria to sell into volume. Rather than seeing a big rally as everyone anticipated, the sellers came in and ruined the party.</blockquote>


I was doing a little "I'm all cash" dance at my desk as the market was selling off by 4% intraday. Might have broken through some downside support levels today. Look out below!</blockquote>


Yes, the fact that there was no rally off the bailout is a very, very bad sign for the market. What kind of news would it take to cause a rally at this point?</blockquote>


The bailout is already priced in the market. I think people already expected it to pass through so the markets really just remained calm. If the House failed to pass, you would have seen blood.
 
[quote author="blackvault" date=1223099242][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1223095971][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1223093723][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1223081689]If any of you were watching the markets today, it was interesting how sellers waited for the bailout announcement and used the strength of the euphoria to sell into volume. Rather than seeing a big rally as everyone anticipated, the sellers came in and ruined the party.</blockquote>


I was doing a little "I'm all cash" dance at my desk as the market was selling off by 4% intraday. Might have broken through some downside support levels today. Look out below!</blockquote>


Yes, the fact that there was no rally off the bailout is a very, very bad sign for the market. What kind of news would it take to cause a rally at this point?</blockquote>


The bailout is already priced in the market. I think people already expected it to pass through so the markets really just remained calm. If the House failed to pass, you would have seen blood.</blockquote>


I think we are about to witness the market price in a severe recession caused by our dysfunctional credit markets.



In case anyone didn't notice, one of the three predictions of the title of this thread came true today. The S&P closed at 1,099.23.
 
I started this thread on September 2nd, 2008, exactly a month ago. Honestly, I was a bit skeptical myself that the DOW will get below 10,000, S&P 1,100 and Nasdaq 1500. I had not idea it was going to get this bad.



Is really possible that unemployment can really approach 200,000 by Jan 31, 2009?



Irvine Renter, I loved how you predicted that the Irvine Home prices will drop by 40%, and that mortgages rates will rise to double digits in the next five years, as all of us will take advantage of this great opportunity to own a home in Irvine at rock bottom prices. However, did anyone guess that many Americans' savings would be completely wiped out from the stock market and not be able to take advantage of this opportunity when prices of Irvine homes are at rock bottom prices.



In 2006, Most Americans can't buy because the home prices are too high.

In 2010 - 2012: Most Americans can't buy because their savings got wiped out from the U.S. Stock Market, banks are unwilling to lend even at 12% - 15% mortgages rates. Money Market accounts that we thought are 100% safe by FDIC end up crashing. It sure feels like 1979.



The key from now until 2010 - 2012, is holding on to your cash, and not losing it.
 
[quote author="Trooper" date=1223097912]Just decided to cut my losses at $950, I'm back all cash. D*mn, d*mn, d*mn !!!</blockquote>
u should have expected a down mkt instead of up. its better to always think about the worst case and then accordingly play the mkt

i would have bought MF in 4 go instead 1 go all together, that way u can avg it out.
 
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