High gas and sprawled-out real estate

Hormiguero_IHB

Hormiguero_IHB

New member
Obviously, this isn't the most original insight, but it seems like the 'new suburban premium' of 5 years ago has almost fully faded away in all parts of California.



In much the same way that the prius has replaced the suv as a suburban status symbol, so is the attraction of remote, new construction which requires a 5 mile drive to get anything and a 30 mile drive to go anywhere interesting fading.



The market seems to be telling us this already - "old money" locations like bel air, the newport coast, malibu, manhattan beach, the hollywood hills, laguna beach, are holding their value while even the most earnest attempts at newer inland status spots are wilting.



It's almost like those miles of deep-underwater mcmansions are the dust bowls of this new generation - good for nothing but generating broke and broken refugees (no offense to my Sooner friends).
 
I think it's more that the collapse starts at the low end and works its way upward. Gas prices are high enough to be a grave problem for rural and bedroom communities, but CA suburban densities are adequate at current gas prices. I agree the McMansion farms are in for a world of hurt, but I think the demographics/geography (incomplete infrastructure and few nearby jobs) will be the problem rather than the suburban layout. Older suburbs like most of OC, Riverside, Corona, SF and SG Valleys, etc., should do OK.



Another leg up in gas prices could change this but I think for the time being Americans will continue to be enamored of suburbs and cars.
 
It'd be wishful thinking on my part to hope that rising gas prices would lead to more urban light rail.



For now people will just buy more fuel efficient cars.
 
Irvine could have had <a href="http://www.lightrailnow.org/news/n_oct003.htm">light rail</a> but the NIMBY voters turned it down. Sometimes democracy is a really stupid idea.
 
Interesting how Irvine is not capitalized in the title. Even more interesting how it isn't capitalized in the whole articles unless it starts off the sentence.
 
[quote author="ABC123" date=1213336919]Irvine could have had <a href="http://www.lightrailnow.org/news/n_oct003.htm">light rail</a> but the NIMBY voters turned it down. Sometimes democracy is a really stupid idea.</blockquote>


We don't really have the population density here to justify it... there's just too few people in Irvine right now. For a city with 180 sq km land, we're under-populated with barely over 200,000 residents. If we had a million residents, it'd have been a different story. I have so many coworkers that have to live outside Irvine for affordable housing. I wish we had more affordable housing here so people can live and work in Irvine.



If and when we get more people living here, we'd get light rail. Until then, we can only dream. :(



<img src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9a/Singaporecrystalmover.JPG/800px-Singaporecrystalmover.JPG" alt="" />

<img src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/04/ThanggamLRT.JPG/800px-ThanggamLRT.JPG" alt="" />
 
[quote author="Hormiguero" date=1213253638]Obviously, this isn't the most original insight, but it seems like the 'new suburban premium' of 5 years ago has almost fully faded away in all parts of California.



In much the same way that the prius has replaced the suv as a suburban status symbol, so is the attraction of remote, new construction which requires a 5 mile drive to get anything and a 30 mile drive to go anywhere interesting fading.



The market seems to be telling us this already - "old money" locations like bel air, the newport coast, malibu, manhattan beach, the hollywood hills, laguna beach, are holding their value while even the most earnest attempts at newer inland status spots are wilting.



It's almost like those miles of deep-underwater mcmansions are the dust bowls of this new generation - good for nothing but generating broke and broken refugees (no offense to my Sooner friends).</blockquote>


Welcome Hormi,



Old money locations are places where people hold on to their homes. Homes are treated as family heirlooms rather than move every 5 year get rich quick scheme. Generally the size (sf) of the "old money" homes in SoCal must be less than 20% of the lot area. Architectural vernacular is always a pedigree style and executed with a high level of authenticiity and honesty. The exterior of the home is often understated and timeless in character. Materials chosen for the homes were for durability against weathering rather than to impress visitors.



With that being said Bel Air is the only one considered as old money. San Marino, Palos Verdes, La Canada Flindridge, Rancho Santa Fe, Hope Ranch, Montecito, Villa Park, Holmby Hills, and Toluca Lake and Lemon Heights are some fine examples of old money communities.
 
[quote author="momopi" date=1213336568]It'd be wishful thinking on my part to hope that rising gas prices would lead to more urban light rail.



For now people will just buy more fuel efficient cars.</blockquote>


Operative word is URBAN. OC is not urban.



Irvine and OC needs bus service. Rail needs bus service. Prolific, affordable, quick bus service.



Light rail that starts nowhere, goes nowhere and requires people to drive to the first location to get on is self defeating. You need to be able to walk conveniently in about 10 minutes to a mass transit point, either bus or rail that can get you to a main transfer distance mover quickly.
 
<a href="http://www.cnn.com/2008/TECH/06/16/suburb.city/index.html">http://www.cnn.com/2008/TECH/06/16/suburb.city/index.html</a>



<blockquote>Yet Nelson also estimates that in 2025 there will be a surplus of 22 million large-lot homes that will not be left vacant in a suburban wasteland but instead occupied by lower classes who have been driven out of their once affordable inner-city apartments and houses.



The so-called McMansion, he said, will become the new multi-family home for the poor.



"What is going to happen is lower and lower-middle income families squeezed out of downtown and glamorous suburban locations are going to be pushed economically into these McMansions at the suburban fringe," said Nelson. "There will probably be 10 people living in one house."</blockquote>
 
"With that being said Bel Air is the only one considered as old money"





I guess these things are relative - maybe it's the person attached to the money who tends to be old rather than the status of the 'hood itself!



Ironic, in that Bel-Air was largely developed in the 50s, to my knowledge. I'm sure there are plenty of beat-up towns in the rust belt who wish they could convert 150+ years of history into some kind of status.
 
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