LoudRoar said:
The chances of an earthquake happening in the next year... nobody knows.
Actually we know the chances of an earthquake with any magnitude happening in future fairly accurately. Plug in you zip code, time frame, and desired magnitude here and see for yourself:
USGS Earthquake Probability Mapping
The problem is, this is all probability, so you can't be 100% sure... (but this is enough data for insurance companies to adjust their premiums versus potential claims to still make good money in all likelihood, when the pool is large enough.)