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NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
graphrix,

The MLS database for realtors is full of transaction data. I almost can predict which home(s) are DOA by looking at the involved agents; the fraudsters look for cooperating brokers.

Fraudsters look for the followings to maximize their gains:

1) Ugliest homes which no one wanted to buy so they can capitalize on vulnerability

2) Fraudsty listing agents

3) Less than $999K for ease of loan qualifiction. They would never go with companies such as Wells Fargo or BoA.

4) Homes in area that they can get the most rent.

And you know what, I have not seen ANY since February 2007.

I realized the niche market I am in, by default, is very different so my point of view is somewhat odd; however, I do want to share my observation FYI.

I have been very busy, doing many leasings for folks who are flocking into OC. Rent rate for 3 bedroom+ in Irvine has jumped again to 12% in just 4 months. I guess everyone is waiting for the market to crash, and affordability to purchase is absolutely a non-issue. If this keeps going, many of these renters will convert as I sense the breaking point is nearing.

It's not so fun being a renter now for a townhome or SFS, I bet. By my estimation, demands are 3X of supplies.

The entry market is pretty slow for a while now. I am hoping it's time for a switch in direction as a normal psychological pattern.

I notice the same for less entries. Why? Do folks feel differently now? Hope this post will create some traffic.
 
awgee - The info on that site is on real property. Most likely it would be a home more so than a business related property. Now how I confirm who, where and what is on there is through a title search that I have from a title company. With Slade's I just looked up the document number and I was able to see the actual document. Then I did a search on his address and I was able to see the loan info. Getting this service for someone not in the buiness doesn't seem that difficult. It was discussed here and if you check out the comments by irvinefsbo I think you can sign up with Chicago Title. When it asks what business you are in I would say investor. You will probably have to deal with a title rep calling you but it will be a newbie who will leave you alone after three phone calls. For now you can check www.foreclosure.com and see how many preforeclosures they show for 92679. The data isn't always accurate and any of the public foreclosure websites are behind the county by at least two weeks. So Slade's NOD won't show up for some time and maybe if he catches up it never will. Let me know if you would like some more info.

NIR - I give you one thing you do remain optimistic even when experts like John Burns cautions everyone about the market. As for rentals I took a quick spin on the MLS and for Irvine I found 218 properties for lease 16 were 5 beds and 6 were $4500 or less. There was 43 4 beds and 32 were $4000 or less and 14 were $3000 or less. There was 57 3 beds and 50 were $3000 or less. There was 30 for lease in the OC Register excluding apartments and all were under $4000. People are not flocking to OC and they haven't been for last six years. This is fluff and you know it because if you were here in the 90s you used the same BS line.
 
From Realtytrac:

California reported 80,595 foreclosure filings during the first quarter, the most of any state and accounting for more than 18 percent of the national total. The state’s foreclosure activity increased 68 percent from the previous quarter and more than doubled from the first quarter of 2006, resulting in a foreclosure rate of one foreclosure filing for every 152 households — fifth highest among the states and 1.7 times the national average.
 
graphrix,

I was expecting your comment as such. As I mentioned before, I am in a niche market (market d'jour), that is newer constructed homes (yr 1997+). If you scan the MLS you will be surprise. People prefer newer homes where there are kids (schools); after all, kids (schools) are what making Irvine attractive.

Also, more than half of the active listings were long GONE! Agents keep them active as long as they can to keep marketing live. Just call up the agents and you will see.
 
Actually now is a great time to be a renter of a SFH or large townhome. I can rent an $800,000 home for less than $3k a month. Rents have been trending upwards slightly, but they are still a relative steal compared to buying right now. I find it hard to believe that rents went up 12% in a few months. I am noticing people putting up wishing prices on their rentals hoping that they can find a sucker to cover their carrying costs. No one will pay 4k for that 3/3, and stats like those skew the averages.



Nirvinerealtor must deal with the small elite baby boomers who have money equity trees already firmly planted in their backyards. Most young families with kids can't afford anything in Irvine. Since you love to give anecdotal examples, I'll respond with my own. Pretty much all of my colleagues my age (gen x) that I know with kids have already left Irvine due to cost of living issues. In addition, my wife who works for one of Irvine's largest employers, is having a very difficult time filling positions. They just can't pay enough to get the quality talent to move here. She is getting plenty of ex Mortgage (NEW) and Realtor apps though, but they don't have the skills needed.
 
irvine_native,

Wow, thanks for the graph (site). My lease rate runs between $1.5 - $2/sq. ft. So this graph must be median data.

Regardless, your graph shows roughly 6% increase in 3 months. Don't you think it is bad enough? I noticed there is a big rush this week to rent.

In contrary to your "small elite baby boomers" reference, my typical clients are in their early 30's, half are first timers, young family with 1 or 2 kids (toddler - 8yrs old). These folks are settled and are successful in their career. They have some saving. Down payment ranges from 5-50% depending on if they have generous parents.
 
I am not familiar with OCHomeReview.com. Does anybody know how they compile the data for the above chart? I am curious if it represents what was actually rented, or if it contains the collective wishing price of available rental units. I remember when I was looking for my rental (which was $1.17 SF) there was a lot of larger, older homes on the market which were pretty good deals, particularly compared to what the Irvine Company was asking for apartments.
 
OCHomeReview.com is a lead generator site uploading data from MLS. The data is not as current as a few of my leases leased and they are still showing as active.

mino,

I notice parents are offering large chunk of down payments or even paying off the house for the children. I think it's a smart move to avoid gift tax (limit $11K/year/person) legally. Also, parents can reduce estate tax liability (over $2M) by moving the asset to the children while they are still alive. How else would you explain for the young cash buyers.
 
Parents fronting the $$$. I've seen it in action... even just for downpayment $$$, many of my friends had at least some assistance from parents... say 25-50K... maybe I should give my mom and dad a call... ;)
 
Gifts are exempt from gift tax up to the unified exemption credit, which is way over $11,000. Gifts are non-reportable if $11,000 or under for tax year 2006.
 
I learned this interesting tax move from my tax attorney (my client). He said when you give real estate to someone who is neither parent nor child for no consideration, you should put "for love and affection" to avoid tax liability to the person who gives.
 
Weak spring may drive home prices lower. http://tinyurl.com/339nxm

"We think the housing downturn has decisively moved to its second act of falling prices," wrote Deutsche Bank in a report to clients Monday.

"With the first act consisting of significant retrenchments in volumes, the second act is one with home prices falling back to more equilibrium levels after a period of breathtaking increases during the housing boom," Deutsche Bank said.
 
This guy is unbelievable! I particularly like his last two statements:



Mozilo said current guidelines proposed by regulators would exacerbate problems in the housing market.

"The reason why people can't sell their houses is there are no buyers around," Mozilo said. "And there are no buyers around because they can't get the financing."

Basically, if you cut off the kool-aid, you ruin the housing market. No $hit! He fails to mention the reason they can't get financing is because they can't afford to pay off the loans.

Countrywide chief decries subprime regulation

NEW YORK, May 21 (Reuters) - Countrywide Financial Corp. (CFC.N: Quote, Profile , Research) Chief Executive Angelo Mozilo said on Monday that proposed regulation in the subprime mortgage industry would help crooks while hurting legitimate lenders and the housing market.

"It's better for the crooks," Mozilo told Reuters before speaking at a Mortgage Bankers Association conference in Manhattan. "It's only the good people who have to comply. Regulation, in my opinion, has caused part of the problem. When they attacked the pay option and interest-only loans, that really put a dent in a lot of the product, which is perfectly good product."

Mozilo, leader of the largest U.S. mortgage lender, set the tone for a conference whose membership is smarting from the excesses of the subprime sector. Some of the largest subprime lenders have gone out of business amid falling property values and a rising wave of delinquencies and foreclosures.

Kieren Quinn, chairman-elect of the MBA, acknowledged in the conference's opening remarks that subprime woes had given the entire mortgage industry a black eye.

Quinn also drew comparisons to Major League Baseball's steroids scandal. He said the industry needed to continue to scrub the industry, "or we'll get ugly, ugly regulation."

"The market already has corrected many of its mistakes," Quinn said.

Mozilo said current guidelines proposed by regulators would exacerbate problems in the housing market.

"The reason why people can't sell their houses is there are no buyers around," Mozilo said. "And there are no buyers around because they can't get the financing."
 
I truly believe the only thing Mozillo is interested in is exercising the rest of his options and selling his stock. He has been selling it on an almost daily basis for the last couple months.

My countrywide puts went green yesterday. Wish me luck, or at least a good exit.
 
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