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ipoplaya said:
IrvineRenter said:
good article on the basics of deflation:

Falling prices raise worries about deflation
Click to expand...

Was just thinking about deflation this morning when I paid $1.98 per galloon at Costco. It costs less than half as much to fill my tank as it did during the summer... That extra $200 a month in my wallet isn't going toward extra spending though. It's going right to savings.
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It has been reported that the Somali pirates have lowered there ransom demands by 40%. It must be another sign of deflation.
 
awgee said:
ipoplaya said:
IrvineRenter said:
good article on the basics of deflation:

Falling prices raise worries about deflation
Click to expand...

Was just thinking about deflation this morning when I paid $1.98 per galloon at Costco. It costs less than half as much to fill my tank as it did during the summer... That extra $200 a month in my wallet isn't going toward extra spending though. It's going right to savings.
Click to expand...
It has been reported that the Somali pirates have lowered there ransom demands by 40%. It must be another sign of deflation.
Click to expand...

Good joke I saw in the Calculated Risk comments:

Q: What's the difference between Citi and the Somali pirates?

A: Lots of zeros.
 
awgee said:
Yield on the ten year is 2.98%. Geez, what in the world is going on?
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The 30-year will have a yield of less than 3% before the year is up. I remember that long bonds in Japan had yields of around .50% at the bottom so we have some room to go lower.
 
usctrojanman29 said:
awgee said:
Yield on the ten year is 2.98%. Geez, what in the world is going on?
Click to expand...
The 30-year will have a yield of less than 3% before the year is up. I remember that long bonds in Japan had yields of around .50% at the bottom so we have some room to go lower.
Click to expand...
Ten year is at 2.70%. Ten-year U.S. Treasury CDS widened to 68.4 basis points
 
awgee said:
usctrojanman29 said:
awgee said:
Yield on the ten year is 2.98%. Geez, what in the world is going on?
Click to expand...
The 30-year will have a yield of less than 3% before the year is up. I remember that long bonds in Japan had yields of around .50% at the bottom so we have some room to go lower.
Click to expand...
Ten year is at 2.70%. Ten-year U.S. Treasury CDS widened to 68.4 basis points
Click to expand...
No doubt that the CDSs on the 10-year US bonds should go up as there's a flood of new debt being issued. The question is, who the heck is doing all the buying? The Fed and other central banks? Instituitional buyers looking for safety? China and Japan? Or all the above? The reality is if there's new supply being issued and yields keep dropping that means their significant potential to have lower yields. I mean, would you have believed me if I told you last year that the 1-month and 3-month bills would have negative yields in 2008? Reality is that the markets are just nuts and unpredictable.
 
ECONOMIC REPORT

U.S. homes now undervalued, economists say

Prices fall in 241 metro areas in third quarter, and are likely to fall further

By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch

Last update: 11:47 a.m. EST Dec. 3, 2008Comments: 95WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. housing market is now slightly undervalued after rapid price declines have overshot fundamentals, economists for IHS Global Insight said Wednesday. House prices fell at a 6.9% annual pace nationwide in the third quarter, with prices falling in 241 of 330 metropolitan areas. Prices are down 6.5% from their peak in 2007. Compared with their long-term fundamental values, U.S. homes are now 3.8% undervalued, the economists said.

"With no end in sight to the downward spiral of house prices, it is likely that the long-anticipated market correction will now overshoot fundamental valuations on the downside," said James Diffley, head of regional economics at Global Insight. "Weak economic conditions and wary consumers continue to hold the housing market back," said Jeannine Cataldi, senior economist in charge of Global Insight's regional real estate analysis. "Although many areas are seeing home sales increase, it is largely due to foreclosure homes being snapped up at significantly discounted prices. As the inventory of these homes is removed from the market, prices will remain on a downward path."

However, another economist said home prices are still too high in many bubble areas. "Prices in many markets are still hugely out of line with trend levels, as measured by price-to-rent ratios," said Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research. "As long as house prices remain inflated, there is no way that the market can stabilize since there will continue to be a large excess supply of housing putting downward pressure on house prices." Baker suggested that the government order Fannie Mae to refuse to buy mortgages in areas where prices are still out of line, thus forcing prices to correct quickly. Capital should flow to cities with fairly valued homes, Baker said.

The quarterly report from Global Insight and National City Bank compares observed home prices with fundamental values based on differences in population density, relative income levels, interest rates, and historically observed market premiums or discounts. According to the Global Insight report, only three metro areas are extremely overvalued: Atlantic City, N.J., Bend, Ore., and St. George, Utah. In 2005, 52 metro areas were deemed to be extremely overvalued. Home prices fell more than 10% in nine metro areas in central California during the third quarter, Global Insight said. Prices in Merced, Stockton and Modesto are down more than 50% from their peak, while 26 other cities in California, Nevada and Florida are down more than 30%, they said.
 
So, if the Fed can arrange mortgages through Fannie and Freddie at 4.5%, why not 3%, or 2%, or why not 0%? If low interest rates are the answer to falling home prices, why not lower rates to 0%? Heck, why not pay folks to buy homes?

Are the people who run this country really this stupid?
 
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