Headlines...

[quote author="enthdigry" date=1210211907][quote author="jumpcut" date=1210139052]Good news everybody! The housing crisis is over! April 2008 was the bottom!



http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121003604494869449.html</blockquote>




What are ya'lls' thoughts on this article? He does bring up some points that he claims will lead to a turn-around but what is he neglecting?



Irvine Renter? What are your thoughts?</blockquote>




There was a huge discussion where he was taken apart (guess what the hedge fund he manages is invested in?) over on Calculated Risk yesterday.
 
[quote author="enthdigry" date=1210211907][quote author="jumpcut" date=1210139052]Good news everybody! The housing crisis is over! April 2008 was the bottom!



http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121003604494869449.html</blockquote>




What are ya'lls' thoughts on this article? He does bring up some points that he claims will lead to a turn-around but what is he neglecting?



Irvine Renter? What are your thoughts?</blockquote>
His conclusion is based on the idea that homes are affordable again.



Huh? <Awgee shakes his head>



Where? Zimbabwe? Do you think homes are affordable?

And he addresses absolutely no other factors affecting home prices. He is a moron.
 
Pending Sales of Existing Homes in U.S. Decreased 1% (Update1)

<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aYwV23U9qcv4&refer=home">http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aYwV23U9qcv4&refer=home</a>
 
California screaming: Tales from the housing bust

<a href="http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/01/real_estate/Regnier_Postcards_from_the_Edge.moneymag/index.htm?section=money_latest">http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/01/real_estate/Regnier_Postcards_from_the_Edge.moneymag/index.htm?section=money_latest</A>



For all the anxiety and analyst sessions that falling prices have induced around L.A., a few folks have figured out how to play the game and keep winning. Jim Fisher is one of them. He lived the California dream in the bubble, and he's still enjoying it in the crash. Fisher, a software salesman, and his family are ensconced in a 5,000-square-foot home in Huntington Beach with a harbor for their backyard. And they pay just $2,800 a month.



How? They're house-sitting while the owner tries to sell. They stage the house with their own furniture - agents believe it's harder to sell an empty house - and agree to skedaddle on short notice once there's a sale. (You want to say "Only in California," but Showhomes, the company that arranges this, is based in Nashville.) The Fishers have been roaming from mansion to mansion since 2004, when he decided that home prices were just too crazy. It sounds like an amazing deal until you see how clean they have to keep the place.



http://i.l.cnn.net/money/2008/05/01...s_from_the_Edge.moneymag/california_chart.jpg
 
[quote author="enthdigry" date=1210211907][quote author="jumpcut" date=1210139052]Good news everybody! The housing crisis is over! April 2008 was the bottom!



http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121003604494869449.html</blockquote>




What are ya'lls' thoughts on this article? He does bring up some points that he claims will lead to a turn-around but what is he neglecting?



Irvine Renter? What are your thoughts?</blockquote>


The posters above answered the question for me.
 
Of the $12.5 billion that AIG reported as a writedown, $9.11 billion is being reported as due to losses from credit default swaps. I have been harping on probable losses from CDSs for awhile and imo, these will effect the US economy, the world economy, and resultantly the US real estate market more significantly than any other factor to date.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1210364901]Of the $12.5 billion that AIG reported as a writedown, $9.11 billion is being reported as due to losses from credit default swaps. I have been harping on probable losses from CDSs for awhile and imo, these will effect the US economy, the world economy, and resultantly the US real estate market more significantly than any other factor to date.</blockquote>


I suspect you are correct. Everyone seems to think they have passed the risk on to someone else, and the solvency of all the counterparties is questionable at best. The meltdown scenario of cascading defaults could easily come to pass.
 
<a href="http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/washingtondc/la-fi-housing9-2008may09,0,4429115.story">http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/washingtondc/la-fi-housing9-2008may09,0,4429115.story</a>



Assuming that the white house and congress can agree on the final bill, what are the likely results of this legislation for our market? The key piece I see is that if the lenders write down a mortgage on an owner occuppied residence to its present value, the goverment will guarantee the new loan. It seems as though there will be restrictions on who qualifies, so if you can afford the house that you bought in 2006, you're stuck with it. Do you think the people who can afford it, but are still signficantly underwater will walk?



If they keep the $7,500 interest free 15 year loan for first time buyers DP assistance, I'd expect to see a lot more of the condos and lower end houses start to move. I'm not keen on FHA guidelines that will let someone with a 580 FICO score buy with only 3% down, but the reality is that the loans exist. Their PMI is higher, but contrary to what our government believes, homeownership is not for everyone.



Anyway, just wanted to see if you guys thought the legislation would stop some of the bleeding here.
 
Great mortgage deals for big O.C. homes?

<a href="http://mortgage.freedomblogging.com/2008/05/09/great-mortgage-deals-for-big-oc-homes/">http://mortgage.freedomblogging.com/2008/05/09/great-mortgage-deals-for-big-oc-homes/</a>



Hensling said on Tuesday, before Fannie?s change, a 30-year fixed jumbo-conforming loan went for 6.5 percent with a one-point fee. On Wednesday, after the announcement, the rate on the same loan with a one-point fee dropped to 5.75 percent.



The catch: borrowers must come up with 15 percent down on a purchase. However, if Fannie already owns the loan, it will allow a refinance up to 120 percent of the home?s current market value to give homeowners a break if property values have plummeted in their neighborhood and they have kept current with their mortgages, Hensling said. (No ?cash-out? refinances allowed.)
 
re: House mortgage bill

<a href="http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/2008/05/congressman-say.html ">http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/2008/05/congressman-say.html</a>



--Three Californians skipped the vote: "Reps. John Campbell (R-Irvine), Laura Richardson (D-Long Beach) and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) did not vote. By tradition, the speaker seldom does
 
<blockquote>Today, Greenspan said that the worst of the credit crisis is over. </blockquote>
And weren't not in a recession either. :p
 
I think that Slate should be honored to be mentioned in our

blog.



We are all smarter than the average bear.

Our collective real estate IQ is in the 10s of thousands.



We have no financial interest in the blog. All posts are a

labor of love.



The blogs, including calculated risk, and lots

of others, figured this out years

ago. Why should we be honored or deferential toward the

main stream media, who took forever to get it, much less

predict it, and who are so often shills for someone?



And who are usually doing a lousy job of explaining it?



And who in their own race to the bottom to make money

out of morons, thus losing readers who care?



I do occasionally read Slate. Much less since I discovered

CR and IHB.
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1210571650]This is just SICK!!



<span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="color: red;"><strong>California man losing nine homes in mortgage mess </strong></span></span>



http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080511/us_nm/california_foreclosures_dc;_ylt=AiBnQsMwQrA8UnWYTpHJo2UDW7oF</blockquote>


<img src="http://www.junkyardjiff.com/OT/rofl.gif" alt="" />
 
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