Hard times in Hawaii

acpme_IHB

acpme_IHB

New member
I'm in the process of planning a trip to the Big Island. Intra-island airlines going under, general air travel becoming more expensive and restrictive, and strapped mainlanders have created the perfect tsunami. Even Maui has seen hotel occupancy rates have dropped from 85% last yr to 63% this year. I expected tough times for the local economy and some good deals for travelers but I'm really surprised by how bad things seem to be there, esp on the BI where I'm headed.



I spent several days putting together an itinerary, then posted on TripAdvisors forums to get some input. Good thing I did because three restaurants, one spa, and one excursion operator I had found online and were planning to visit all went out of business. The locals say the slump is quite dramatic. I used this to my advantage and negotiated lower rates, esp since we're visiting off-peak season. I didn't find a single restaurant, tour, or hotel that was fully booked and all were willing to go significantly discount advertised prices without countering.



Vegas, which people previously said was immune to a downturn, is in near-depression. Friends who work for Disney said their summer attendance was disappointing. Anyone else notice their favorite tourist traps suffering?
 
I spent three days in LV during the WSOP and I was stunned how quiet it is/was.



I'm going back in a couple of weekends, I'll post back.
 
I just booked a flight to Oahu not 2 minutes ago, this being the first site I hit afterward. During our conversations my parents often mention how bad visitor count is this year. It seems the airlines don't know how to react. I made a couple trips earlier this year, before things got crazy, and I paid less than $300 roundtrip each time, which has been pretty usual for years now for off-peak flights. Then things went awry with earnings reports, fuel costs, the economic slowdown, and 2 months ago the trip I just booked priced out at over $700. Apparently this was too much, as a lot of flights had quite a few empty seats, so they brought the fares down--final cost for me a little under $500 for a trip in September. Need to work on my orange glow. ;)

Back in the 70s the vast majority of tourists were American. This changed quickly in the 80s, when the Japanese became the dominant visitors. It shouldn't be much of a surprise to find out that the fastest-growing tourist group of late has been the Chinese. It *shouldn't* be a surprise, but after decades of getting used to mostly Japanese tourists clogging the streets of Waikiki--and no Chinese at all--it still catches me offgaurd when I encounter them.
 
I haven't traveled all that much lately, but what I have heard about Vegas has been dismal at best. A few weeks ago friends of mine went to Vegas for the weekend and stayed at the Palazzo (sp), and they said the service sucked. Totally understaffed, it would take an hour to get their drinks at the table, so they would order two at a time, then a table would actually get crowded and when they asked the pit boss if they could open another table he said they cut back the staff so much they don't have anyone to open another table. Pretty sad, and I have heard other horror/depression like stories about Vegas, such as the hotel that <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=alpUP8xoYnJE&refer=home">Deutsche Bank will foreclose on</a>.



I am going to SF next month, and since I lived there for over three years, I will be able to report what it is like from a what it once was like perspective.
 
I was in Vegas in June, it wasn't as crowded as it was, but still crowded. It was noticeable how the crowd milled outside and wasn't inside gambling. No giant taxi lines like I remember either or VIP line for limos for those that didn't want to wait for the taxi line.



For BI in June,volume was holding up, sort of, we flew United out of LAX direct. The economy section was packed. Economy plus (extra leg room) was 20% full, first class - full. On the way back, economy looked 90% full, plus - 50%, and first class full. The upgrade to economy plus was $49 (on the way back) and worth every penny. That's on top of the nearly $900 flight. They take about a 1/3rd of the plane an make it economy plus.



The hotel on the BI was only 70% or so judging by parking. The restuarants were all hurting. No waits anywhere. It was a short trip and it's been about 3 years since I've been in Kona and overall vibe was boom-town getting ready to bust.
 
[quote author="skek" date=1218238145]My understanding is that the condo market on Maui has 60 months of inventory. During the boom years, they were selling 200+ condos per month (again, this is only on Maui). In 2008, that number declined to double digits. In June, it hit a low of 53 (and I think July was 60ish).



There's a new development on Kanaapali Beach called Honua Kai. First new high rise condo development there in 20 years. They recently had to amend their purchase contract to permit pre-construction flippers, er, speculators, er, people who lied about their income to obtain financing, er, purchasers to resell their units on the MLS before closing or else face dozens upon dozens of canceled escrows.



<em>*skek makes a note to pick up a unit on Maui for 25 cents on the dollar, right after he gets his Miami Beach unit for 10 cents on the dollar.*</em></blockquote>


I like your mental notes.... But i'm very fraidful (lol) of Miami.



Yes, we have noticed this also. The few dance competitions we've gone to have been near dead when there have historically been packed.



-bix
 
Note on Vegas -- Simon Property Group which owns The Forum Shops is seeing negative sales growth at that property for the first time ever. Forum Shops are considered the cream of the crop of all mall properties in the country. It had sales of $1700/sf. No mall comes within $400/sf of that property, not Bal Harbour, Ala Moana, or South Coast. So even the best of the best is not looking good.
 
The firm I work for does business extensively across the Islands and we've seen quite a downturn in terms of product selling in that market, which is for high end residences and hotels. I have some family out there, and it has always been a struggle for good high paying jobs, and now appears to be even tougher recently.
 
Visit Pacific Beach Hotel at Honolulu for buffet and gawk at their fish tank. Skip the Chinese food at China Town, you can do better in Alhambra.
 
We went to Maui at end of May and stayed at the Westin. The hotel seems crowded to me, but the front desk girls were telling me how slow they were. There were still long lines (I consider 20 mins a long wait, and 30 min plus is out of the question) during dinner time at the Hula Grills, etc.



For those of you going to the Hawaii, you can get a better deal if you contact through their Time Share office locally on the island. They usually are willing to work out a nice deal with you on room rates if you agree to attend one of their presentations. You still get the $100 or so credit.



Also, if you go to maui, you might want to consider picking up the rental car first instead of waiting for your luggage first. I waited for more than 30mins for our bags to come out as there were so many flights coming in at the same time. The United Boeing 767 from LAX was completely packed.
 
I was in Vegas 3 weeks ago. Amazingly, no line anywhere. Got into mostly every restaurant, club, and event within 5-10 minutes of arrival. It was over weekend too. Highlight of the weekend, however, was running into Lebron at Wynn at 2am. Big entourage, even at wee hours of the morning.
 
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