Hard Currencies

[quote author="muzie" date=1225439663][quote author="PANDA" date=1225433749]At 4:00PM ET: 25.65 3.05 (13.50%) iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM)



The Emerging Market index has risen 30% in 5 days? Have we hit rock bottom on this ETF? Tempted to make a move on this one. FXI is also up 20% in 5 days. Is this Overseas rally Fake or Real?



Waiting on the sidelines.



China, Korea, and Japan all rallying this evening. Up 10% on the Nikkei Holy Smokes! Go Japan.



C'mon Asian Tigers, get back on your feet.</blockquote>


The Asian markets did not, are not, and will not decouple from the US market. Just layer any graph of the S&P over FXI.



If you're buying FXI you're buying a leveraged version of the US index, nothing more. This is fine, but in no way can you advocate the US economy & market will go to hell in a basket while at the same time hoping the Chinese index will go out and make new yearly highs.</blockquote>


I think we are going to see the DOW back up between 11,000 - 12,000. Believe it not, I am now hoping for the DOW to get back where it was in September 2008. This is just too painful for so many Americans.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1225433749]China, Korea, and Japan all rallying this evening. Up 10% on the Nikkei Holy Smokes! Go Japan.</blockquote>


Where do you get your info from? Panda's dreamland? Do you really watch the Asian markets? Do you even know when they open?



<em>HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Japanese stocks dropped sharply early Friday after three days of solid gains, with Hitachi, Nintendo Co. and Mazda Motor Corp. pacing losses a day after they cut their full-year earnings forecasts. <strong>The Nikkei 225 Average, dropped 2.8%</strong> to 8,779.69, after soaring 26% in the previous three sessions. The broader Topix index fell 1.8% to 883.18. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index dropped 1.3% to 3,947.60 and <strong>South Korea's Kospi slipped 0.1%</strong> to 1,083.44, while New Zealand's NZX 50 index rose 0.8% to 2,784.98.</em>



China isn't even trading right now. Why? Because they are not open yet.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1225346682][quote author="PANDA" date=1225344790]Holy Smokes!, Canadian Currency kicked butt this week. Could this possibly be the top for the dollar and the bottom for the Canadian? The Canadian Dollar is so under priced right now it is not even funny. I wish that i had more dollars to convert. I wouldn't touch Irvine Real Estate with a 100 foot pole, but buying real estate in Toronto may not be a bad idea. If the currency starts to strengthen and the real estate prices starts to go up in Toronto, you've got three things going for you. 1) strength of the currency, 2. appreciation of real estate, and 3. i guess if you collect rent, you'll get paid dividends in a strengthening currency. I am very optimistic on where Canada is headed as a country as they are in much better shape than us.



I remember back in 1998, during the Asian financial crisis my dad converted a big chunk of his over valued U.S. dollars for the Korean Won, and he made out very well. On average, the conversion is $1 for 1000 Won. It is now 1500 Won for a $1 U.S. dollar which is absolutely CRAZY!!



If you have ever dreamed of vacationing in Asian or Europe. This is probably the ideal time to do it. In couple of years.... all the Europeans and Asians will be vacationing here <strong>as our dollars will be practically worth nothing</strong>.</blockquote>
This is because the European and Asian economies will be doing great while we suffer through recession, huh? Their economies are gonna get hammared, especially Europe since they've kept their rates up too high for too long.



Come on PANDA, remember what I tell you...so goes the US, so goes the rest of the world.



Long live the US Dollar!!!</blockquote>


"Remember the $10 billion dollars we just gave them compliments of the US Congress and their $850 billion dollar bailout? They are going to hand out bonuses to the tune of an average ?3 million for each of the firm?s 443 partners. In total, they are going to hand out ?7 billion in salary and bonuses out of the ?6 billion handed to them by the treasury. I?m not sure exactly how that is going to help the economy other than the sales of new Ferraris."



I can't believe my lying eyes

Bob Moriarty

Archives

Oct 30, 2008



This last month has been a real barnburner. I though I had seen everything until I found a couple of new pieces today. The first tells of the Fed supplying new lines of credit to Brazil, Mexico, South Korea and Singapore to, now get this, "help those countries deal with the global credit crisis." The Fed will start off with $30 billion apiece and will make a maximum of $100 billion, per country, available.



They talk about helping countries facing liquidity problems but they aren't telling the real story. The Fed is pouring $120 billion into those countries so they can dump the dollar. The dollar has been going too high as a result of the deleveraging going on and the world has determined that what we really need to do is destroy the dollar. They will sell dollars so they can buy their local currency. Bye, bye dollar.



Don't stand under that particular knife when it falls. The dollar index was up from 77 to 87.5 in less than a month. The Fed's new program of dumping on the dollar seems to be working; the dollar is down from 87.5 to 83.5 in less than 24 hours from yesterday to today. Did I remind you not to try to catch that particular falling blade?



That wasn't the dumbest thing I have ever heard of. The dumbest thing I have ever heard of comes from Goldman Sachs. Remember the $10 billion dollars we just gave them compliments of the US Congress and their $850 billion dollar bailout?



They are going to hand out bonuses to the tune of an average ?3 million for each of the firm's 443 partners. In total, they are going to hand out ?7 billion in salary and bonuses out of the ?6 billion handed to them by the treasury. I'm not sure exactly how that is going to help the economy other than the sales of new Ferraris. You aren't going to read about this in the US press, they are too busy lying about everything they report. We have to read about it in a British newspaper.



If you can't see where the dollar and gold are headed, I'll tell you. The dollar is going the way of the Mexican peso and Zimbabwe dollar. Between the last two devaluations of the peso, it lost 99.9%. Don't bother asking what the price of gold is in old pesos, if you have to ask, you can't afford it. Just multiply gold by 100,000 times. Or is it 1 million times? Those sorts of numbers confuse.



Meanwhile back at the ranch, gold shares are on the discount rack. If I were you, I'd own some physical gold and some good gold shares. My favorites right now are the production stories but some pre-production stories are so good I need to mention them.



How would you like one of the best-run companies in the industry, with AngloGold as a 19.9% partner and Tocqueville as the largest shareholder? I reported on International Tower Hill (ITH) a couple of years ago. The price was $3 a share and they had some promising projects. Now you can buy gold for $7 an ounce in the ground and the stock is $1.04.



ITH just announced doubling the 43-101 resources as Livengood. As of last year, they had a total 43-101 resource of 3.2 million ounces at a .3-gram cutoff. With only half the drill holes from this year's program released, they are up to 6.37 million ounces. President and CEO Jeff Pontius expects to add substantially more ounces in February as a result of the other half of this year's program, assays pending. It might be as high as another 3 million ounces. And the company has 550,000 gold equivalent 43-101 ounces in their other projects. That works out to .158 ounces of gold per share or about $6.58 US per ounce.



That's so insane I can't tell you. This is the kind of deposit majors kill for; there are only 4 exploration juniors with over 4 million ounces of gold.



To give you an idea of how good this is we can compare the Fort Knox mine some 80 kilometers to the Southeast of Livengood. Kinross expects to increase production of gold at Fort Knox to 370,000 ounces a year at a cost of $370 per ounce. Livengood is on a main paved road, with all year access, the ore is closer to the surface, and the tonnage is greater as is the grade.



I can't keep track of every story, there are dozens and dozens of precious metals juniors selling for less than the cash on hand but I know of no company selling gold at a lower price. I have always thought ITH was one of the best stories around and today it got twice as good. In a takeover in a hot market, gold in the ground ounces are worth anywhere from $50 to $100 an ounce and higher depending on how attractive it is. Take my word; this is going to be attractive.



AngloGold has until the end of the year to take their ownership back up to 19.99% in a private placement done at market prices. So guess that another couple of million shares will be issued to AngloGold. ITH is sitting on $8 million in cash now and will pick up another $5 million or so in the PP to AngloGold. With 50 million shares outstanding and doing a deal on 9 million ounces of gold at $50 an ounce, you could have a $9 stock. At $100 an ounce, you could have an $18 stock. In any case, it's cheap now, the cheapest it's ever been. That won't last long once the market realizes what today's news release means.



Hint; buy it in American dollars on the Amex. You are getting it at a 20% discount to the Canadian dollar. Every silly thing the Fed and Treasury has done has backfired on them, almost at once. What if their latest blunder is the last nail in the coffin of the US dollar? What if once they dump it, they can't stop it falling?



This is a real good time to own resource shares and gold. I may have mentioned that before.



International Tower Hill is an advertiser and we have participated in private placements in the past. We are biased as we can be.
 
Panda,



Where do you find these nutcases you listen to? Is there some kind of alternate universe where conspiracy theories and voodoo economics is practiced?
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1225450498]Panda,



Where do you find these nutcases you listen to? Is there some kind of alternate universe where conspiracy theories and voodoo economics is practiced?</blockquote>


He may be a nutcase, but Bob Moriarty has made over one hundred million dollars investing in mining stocks.
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1225450498]Panda,



Where do you find these nutcases you listen to? Is there some kind of alternate universe where conspiracy theories and voodoo economics is practiced?</blockquote>


Irvine Renter,



So I guess Peter Schiff and Jim Rogers also practice Voodoo economics huh?
 
not to take anything away from these guys because they've obviously made some smart calls in their careers that made them far wealthier than any of us. but doesn't mean they can't be wrong in the future. i try not to follow any one or like-minded group of "gurus". there's clearly a survivor bias to these guys. does anybody care what peter lynch or bill miller think these days?



not to mention people only focus on whether these guys are right in the long-run. like a broken clock i guess. for ex, jim rogers might ultimately be right about asia and if so, he'll certainly get credit for making a great call. but it will be completely overlooked that anyone who followed him when he moved to asia last yr and proclaimed the rise of the dragons was upon us would first lose half their fortunes before ever making a cent from his "great call". old adage in the money mgmt business is you might be right about a prediction, but get wiped out before you ever even get a chance to benefit from it.
 
[quote author="acpme" date=1225494239]not to take anything away from these guys because they've obviously made some smart calls in their careers that made them far wealthier than any of us. but doesn't mean they can't be wrong in the future. i try not to follow any one or like-minded group of "gurus". there's clearly a survivor bias to these guys. does anybody care what peter lynch or bill miller think these days?



not to mention people only focus on whether these guys are right in the long-run. like a broken clock i guess. for ex, jim rogers might ultimately be right about asia and if so, he'll certainly get credit for making a great call. but it will be completely overlooked that anyone who followed him when he moved to asia last yr and proclaimed the rise of the dragons was upon us would first lose half their fortunes before ever making a cent from his "great call". old adage in the money mgmt business is you might be right about a prediction, but get wiped out before you ever even get a chance to benefit from it.</blockquote>


Yeah, remember Harry Dent, 36,000 DJ prediction. Even Warren Buffet got in too soon. I believe the newspaper said he lost 7%.
 
acpme speaks truth. I know someone who predicted a collapse back in the tech bubble and put 220K in shorting YHOO. To his misfortune YHOO shot up further and his position was closed out due to margin calls. Not even a week later the whole thing crashed. Wrong timing...
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1225495014]acpme speaks truth. I know someone who predicted a collapse back in the tech bubble and put 220K in shorting YHOO. To his misfortune YHOO shot up further and his position was closed out due to margin calls. Not even a week later the whole thing crashed. Wrong timing...</blockquote>


This is exactly why I have been warning folks against shorting. Unless you are good at it, you can lose money, even when you are right.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1225495950][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1225495014]acpme speaks truth. I know someone who predicted a collapse back in the tech bubble and put 220K in shorting YHOO. To his misfortune YHOO shot up further and his position was closed out due to margin calls. Not even a week later the whole thing crashed. Wrong timing...</blockquote>


This is exactly why I have been warning folks against shorting. Unless you are good at it, you can lose money, even when you are right.</blockquote>


I did short YHOO too when it was very high, but watched every seconds on the screen and ended up buying with a small loss.
 
[quote author="WestparkRenter" date=1225496551][quote author="awgee" date=1225495950][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1225495014]acpme speaks truth. I know someone who predicted a collapse back in the tech bubble and put 220K in shorting YHOO. To his misfortune YHOO shot up further and his position was closed out due to margin calls. Not even a week later the whole thing crashed. Wrong timing...</blockquote>


This is exactly why I have been warning folks against shorting. Unless you are good at it, you can lose money, even when you are right.</blockquote>


I did short YHOO too when it was very high, but watched every seconds on the screen and ended up buying with a small loss.</blockquote>


Personally, I think it is key to being a succsessful short seller to either know when you are wrong and take a quick small loss, or know when you are right and be able to ride out your initial losses.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1225442990][quote author="PANDA" date=1225433749]China, Korea, and Japan all rallying this evening. Up 10% on the Nikkei Holy Smokes! Go Japan.</blockquote>


Where do you get your info from? Panda's dreamland? Do you really watch the Asian markets? Do you even know when they open?



<em>HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Japanese stocks dropped sharply early Friday after three days of solid gains, with Hitachi, Nintendo Co. and Mazda Motor Corp. pacing losses a day after they cut their full-year earnings forecasts. <strong>The Nikkei 225 Average, dropped 2.8%</strong> to 8,779.69, after soaring 26% in the previous three sessions. The broader Topix index fell 1.8% to 883.18. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index dropped 1.3% to 3,947.60 and <strong>South Korea's Kospi slipped 0.1%</strong> to 1,083.44, while New Zealand's NZX 50 index rose 0.8% to 2,784.98.</em>



China isn't even trading right now. Why? Because they are not open yet.</blockquote>


Graphix,



I haven't seen you post any of your trades in a LONG time. I am curious to know if your perspective has changed at all since a year ago when we had a friendly debate on gold, direction of the dollar, and asian stocks? Everything i hoped for that would happen in 08 did not happen in 2008, but happened in 2009? Are you looking to short the DOW here if it reaches 9800 - 10500 before year end? Do you think IF the U.S. stock market crashes and burns, FXI will make a new low from where we were in March '09 or are we going to see U.S. and Asia decouple here?
 
Current Rank Previous day?s rank Account Value (USD)

1. awgee 1 $153,052.75

2. optimusIHB 2 $136,218.85

3. graphrix2 3 $121,835.53

4. golfplan18 4 $121,501.54

5. CalGal2 5 $92,711.63

6. ukyo116 6 $92,532.19

7. tenmagnet 7 $89,805.51

8. skekker 8 $72,322.42
 
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