Going south from here...

J

jbenko_IHB

New member
CISCO reported. They were the first relevant tech to report a quarter that included "october".

Sales from october decreased -9% compared to a moderate increase in september. They expect global and domestic revenues to decrease 9-12 in Q2.



The rest who don't know, CISCO is an excellent bellweather for how the economy is shaping. They were the first to report slowdown in spending back in Jan and said they expect next year spending to decrease as well mainly by US and somewhat buy emerging markets such as China, Japan, Russia and India.



The bear is back.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1225951382]The cheerleaders on CNBC are breathless because CSCO beat earnings expectations by $0.03.</blockquote>


CNBCs crew are a bunch of uneducated morons. Cisco beat by 3 cents on an adjusted basis. Per share basis they blew it by 2 cents. Either way, guidence is what is important. And it wasn't peachy...
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1225951744][quote author="awgee" date=1225951382]The cheerleaders on CNBC are breathless because CSCO beat earnings expectations by $0.03.</blockquote>


CNBCs crew are a bunch of uneducated morons. Cisco beat by 3 cents on an adjusted basis. Per share basis they blew it by 2 cents. Either way, guidence is what is important. And it wasn't peachy...</blockquote>


Those crackheads on CNBC are bought and paid for. I can't watch it anymore, so I tune into bloomberg. That Rick Santelli is a 'snake in the grass."
 
[quote author="lendingmaestro" date=1225953770][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1225951744][quote author="awgee" date=1225951382]The cheerleaders on CNBC are breathless because CSCO beat earnings expectations by $0.03.</blockquote>


CNBCs crew are a bunch of uneducated morons. Cisco beat by 3 cents on an adjusted basis. Per share basis they blew it by 2 cents. Either way, guidence is what is important. And it wasn't peachy...</blockquote>


Those crackheads on CNBC are bought and paid for. I can't watch it anymore, so I tune into bloomberg. That Rick Santelli is a 'snake in the grass."</blockquote>
Agreed, the CNBC crew are such cheerleaders it's annoying. I swear, since Sept. they keep acting all of their guests if we hit bottom. Bloomberg is a lot better, but CNBC has cuter female anchors. haha
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1225951150]CISCO reported. They were the first relevant tech to report a quarter that included "october".

Sales from october decreased -9% compared to a moderate increase in september. They expect global and domestic revenues to decrease 9-12 in Q2.



The rest who don't know, CISCO is an excellent bellweather for how the economy is shaping. They were the first to report slowdown in spending back in Jan and said they expect next year spending to decrease as well mainly by US and somewhat buy emerging markets such as China, Japan, Russia and India.



The bear is back.</blockquote>
Don't forget about the service ISM reported earlier sure helped to bring things down to...40 versus expectation of 47....LOOK OUT BELOW.
 
<blockquote>Don't forget about the service ISM reported earlier sure helped to bring things down to...40 versus expectation of 47....LOOK OUT BELOW.</blockquote>


Not to mention plenty of employment news tomorrow. I hope its a very dark day tomorrow.
 
The market closed today just above support at the 20-Day SMA. If it breaks through tomorrow, expect follow through to the downside. If it bounces, the rally is back on.
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1225957044]The market closed today just above support at the 20-Day SMA. If it breaks through tomorrow, expect follow through to the downside. If it bounces, the rally is back on.</blockquote>


I agree. However the breakthrough or a bounce will be guided by news tomorrow. Ciscos guidence will weight heavy on the market tomorrow as the stage is now set for a fall. Only thing that will bail out a fall tomorrow is great employment data. But due to a zillion headlines last couple of weeks I've seen on layoffs, I doubt it will be pretty.



Market also doesn't like uncertanty when someone like Cisco doesn't want to guide past next quarter in detail then things will go down. I don't think you'll see a panic, but a slower steady downward trend will start. (though a panic is certanly welcome) ;)
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1225957044]The market closed today just above support at the 20-Day SMA. If it breaks through tomorrow, expect follow through to the downside. If it bounces, the rally is back on.</blockquote>
With Cisco's price action in after-hours it looks like we might be breaking through that 20-day SMA, but then again who the hell really knows with this market. If we break below the 20-day SMA do you see us possibily re-testing the lows later on this month?
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1225957891][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1225957044]The market closed today just above support at the 20-Day SMA. If it breaks through tomorrow, expect follow through to the downside. If it bounces, the rally is back on.</blockquote>
With Cisco's price action in after-hours it looks like we might be breaking through that 20-day SMA, but then again who the hell really knows with this market. If we break below the 20-day SMA do you see us possibily re-testing the lows later on this month?</blockquote>


It is hard to say, but if it does break through support, the relief rally will be officially over.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1225957891][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1225957044]The market closed today just above support at the 20-Day SMA. If it breaks through tomorrow, expect follow through to the downside. If it bounces, the rally is back on.</blockquote>
With Cisco's price action in after-hours it looks like we might be breaking through that 20-day SMA, but then again who the hell really knows with this market. If we break below the 20-day SMA do you see us possibily re-testing the lows later on this month?</blockquote>


It really depends. A week ago my whole reasoning to go short is because the market isn't justified to go up. However, it did. It did because bad news on credit died down due to election and also many corps reported decent earnings. I thought about this and it didn't make sense because the financial crisis hit us in middle of the quarter. If you run a business you might have plenty of orders in your pipeline that have to materialize pushing profits up. Next quarter will be a true quarter as it reflects really how corps are operating.



Cisco on their conf. call came out stating that when they compare sales in september it was up like 6% while october was down

-9%. They also expect negative sales growth to continue to Q2, and won't give much of a guidence past that. (which is scarry considering Cisco usually is stable enough to have vision a year out)



I don't think the market will wait to see if we break below the support and create a sell-off. I think it will be the other way around where the bad news will push us below it creating a sell-off. Same thing, I just look at it a bit different I guess.
 
One more quick thing. PMI was reported and it was horrid not that long ago. The market ignored it. I think now that the election is over, people will go back and truly weight things in.



Here is PMI again in case someone missed it...doesn't look pretty.
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<legend> Attached files </legend> <a href="http://www.talkirvine.com/converted_files/images/forum_attachments/167_8ZHKHkckGtiY1rhzvpOu.png"><img src="http://www.talkirvine.com/converted_files/images/forum_attachments/167_8ZHKHkckGtiY1rhzvpOu.png" class="gc-images" title="global PMI.png" style="max-width:300px" /></a> </fieldset>
 
Oh and if everything is peachy out there Wells Fargo wouldn't need to raise 10B through public offering would they?
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1225959810]Oh and if everything is peachy out there Wells Fargo wouldn't need to raise 10B through public offering would they?</blockquote>


You edited your post before I got to respond with <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/2018/#47675">this link to step by step directions</a> on how to post pictures with pictures.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1225960573][quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1225959810]Oh and if everything is peachy out there Wells Fargo wouldn't need to raise 10B through public offering would they?</blockquote>


You edited your post before I got to respond with <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/2018/#47675">this link to step by step directions</a> on how to post pictures with pictures.</blockquote>


Thank you graph. I edited as I felt bad posting something way off topic and was going to try and look it up. Thank you again.
 
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Shiller says: hetrodox policy.
 
i've successfully played the spx 900-960 range a few times now in the past month (mostly with commodity based and emerging stuff like UYM, DIG, EEM and RSX), and should be happy that we'll all get another shot at that play, but instead I just feel queasy.



i've occasionally got into the argument here where I correct poor souls about their delusions that "investing" is somehow different from speculation - but instead of being happy as this market constantly finds new ways to disabuse suckers on this point, it's just depressing.
 
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