Getting a mortgage

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
Hardware,

Ah, now I know where your $500K might come from. I hope your move was a good one as you probably at least kept the $500K tax free.

My husband wanted to sell ours to take advantage of the tax exclusion last year. I was tempting but it would be too much to switch home with children. If we did, it would have have costed more for the replacement home in today market.

Forclosure looms are not good for the market by nature. However, nicer-newer homes are moving upward in pricing. Older-homes are moving doward in pricing to more in-line with newer-nicer homes. My observation.
 
nirvinerealtor - I think that was hardwareguy mentioning the 500k.

It seems your observation disagrees with all the statistical facts regarding the pricing of homes, including newer homes. My observation is that re agents are the only ones holding on to the fallacy that re prices are moving upward in any price point or market, but of course, it is in their best interest to say that, whether it is true or not.

How odd that a replacement home would cost more for you, since prices are coming down and everyone else except you can purchase more home for less, and if the trend continues, they will be able to purchase much more home for much less.
 
awgee,

I corrected to hardwareguy. Thank you.

While I am seeing most homes are declining in value, certain type of homes where supplies are limited and demands are high, prices are inclining.
 
nirvinerealtor, care to give us some example of these houses with inclining prices?

Not doubting your statement, but I am just curious to see what type of houses they are.

Thanks.
 
nonshell,

I can see quite a few neighborhoods with pricing inclining. I found this 92602 neighborhood in Irvine for example since this is Irvine blog.

19 Vacaville, $1.05m on 2/14/07

32 Modesto, $1.295M on 3/20/07

40 Westlake, $1.635M on 3/22/07

14 Riverside, $1.48M on 4/18/07

78 Rockport, $1.075M on 5/14/07

These recent solds increase up to 12% since late 2006 pricing

These homes are move-up homes; and there is a pressure for price increase as reflected by current available listings.

The starter homes will follow suits naturally.

It does sound like I am puffing. I know I am not. I do look at the whole housing picture with my eyes and ears wide open. I do remind myself that I must stay subjective and never rule out any possibilities. The good thing about having access to transaction history is that I do have the "BIRD EYE VIEW" of the housing market.

I do see a lot of foreclosures, but If I look at the transaction histories, frauds seem to be the major cuprid. Therefore, people are not desparate. Banks are selling tons of foreclosure homes transparantly to the public. I could give you the list and you would be surprised.

I do see ARM adjusting; but I do see interest rates still low, and people incomes are quite surprisingly impressive to my standard.
 
bigmoneysalsa,

There have been some homes which have sold for higher prices, particularly in Northwood and Turtle Ridge. As we have seen from the overall statistics, the trend is down, but there are properties which are going against the trend. Go look at some of these properties in Zillow, and you will see the noticeable spike in early 2007. Check out this post:

Dream Big
 
Nirvinerealtor.....and we have proven the theory that emotional buyers not only are FBs they also prop up real estate prices to a point that are unsustainable and thus come crashing down and all the "emotional" buyers get burned.
 
nirvinerealtor,

Thanks for the reply. I know how to calculate a percentage... what I meant was, do all 5 of the homes have a sale in late 2006 as well as a sale at the time you specified? Or are you using other properties w/ similar characteristics that sold in late 2006 as comps? If the former, could it be the case that the sale was the result of a foreclosure auction and not a "retail" sale? Just curious.
 
"Permabear" - interesting.

I have been reading bearish bubble blogs like crazy for the last 2 years, and I don't think I have once seen a post by someone that fits this description.
 
big,

"Permabear"? Who has the correct definition? My interpretation of a permabear is someone who does not purchase real estate. I think it is important to get the terminology defined clearly.

I was looking at comps of similar type (same builder tract to be exact). Yes, I studied and passed the appraisal course and understand the appraisal standards.
 
permabear - In argumentaion, if you have the facts on your side, use the facts. If you don't have the facts, but you have emotion on your side, use emotion. If you have neither facts or emotion on your side, then call names, (perambear), or use put downs. Other names or put downs would be "commitment phobic", "foreclosures are frauds", "fearful". If the facts are against you, you must draw attention from them, using irrelevant anecdotes to paint a picture that you prefer.
 
nirvinerealtor,

I wasn't trying to impune the veracity of your claim. It's just that the statement "These recent solds increase up to 12% since late 2006 pricing" is vaguely worded and I wanted to know precisely what you meant. Thank you for clearing it up for me.

Permabear is a contraction of the words "permanent" and "bear". So I think it would only apply to someone who indicated a permanent bearish sentiment toward housing. It would not apply to anyone simply because they currently hold a bearish sentiment. Here are a couple examples of the difference:

Bear: "I am going to wait a couple years to buy a home because I think home prices are overvalued right now."

Permabear: "In the long run renting is always a better value than buying."

Similarly, you can compare bulls and permabulls:

Bull: "Homes are a good value now. It's cheaper to buy than rent if you factor in the mortgage deduction."

Permabull: "In the long run buying is always a better value than renting."

I think it's pretty clear that almost none of the bears on this blog fall into this "permabear" definition, given that so many of us are actually looking to purchase in the next few years. It seems that your use of the term permabear is an example of the straw man fallacy.
 
"Nirvinerealtor.....are you saying that all foreclosures are mainly resulting from fraud? "

mino2126,

It is a convenient belief for the bulls to have because it denies the reality of exploding mortgages. There is some truth to her statement. The fraud cases always show up first because nobody even bothers to make the first payment. The implication she is trying to make is that there is no problem with ongoing foreclosures because fraud is the only issue. The truth or fallacy of that implication will only be shown over time as we watch all the ARMs explode. I believe the ARM explosions will be numerous, and it will destroy the market. It appears that nirvinerealtor has a different opinion -- or at least she expresses a different opinion; only she knows what she believes.
 
IR,

You said it well. What I believe in is based on what I know. I went with the current statistic that 90% default due to frauds, up from historical 75%.

ARM explosions are definitely a reality. I think it will be bad, but not sure how bad, can we really tell the future acurately?. The ARM index are moving doward? If homes sell well then the damage is minimum.
 
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