General observation from the front lines about the Irvine housing market...

[quote author="IrvineRealtor" date=1257288906][quote author="USCTrojanCPA" date=1257213615]Update for Oct. 2009 - 192 closings (way up from 158 in Oct. 2008) and inventory has dropped to 495 as of 11/1/09. We have now less than 3 months worth of supply of homes on the market which puts us into a strong seller's market in Irvine (typically less than 4-5 months worth of inventory is a seller's market). The increase may have been partially caused by people trying to get the tax credit before it was set to expire (last week we heard that it will be extended until 4/30/10 and allowed to included move-up buyers). Many non-short sale listings (equity sales, flips, and REOs) that are priced below, at, or slightly above comps are flying into escrow within 7-10 days of being listed. Based upon my personal experience, many new listings are swamped with buyers touring the property within the first few days the property is listed. Call it a buyer's frenzy, but there have been several properties that got bid up (even some as much as $50-$100k over current comps) so prices are ticking up a bit. I even saw one buyer on a University Park home listing writing an offer with their agent as I was showing the property to my buyer which was the day after the property got listed. In terms of the foreclosure auctions, lenders continue to postpone and cancel 90%+ of Irvine properties that are scheduled to be auctioned....extend and pretend in full effect. On the lending front, both conforming and jumbo conforming 30-year fixed loans are now around 4.75%.



On a side note, I was able to get 2 of my buyers into escrow the past week on homes that are not in Irvine (both of those two homes also had multiple offers near or over the listing price). This was partially due to some good fortune and some to being an aggressive little SOB plus getting in an offer as soon as possible. Having a loan pre-approval letter from SGIP was also very helpful. It seems that some listing agents will actually give the first bidders the final crack at getting the property but making sure to check that the potential buyers are well qualified to purchase the home.</blockquote>


Congratulations on your work, trojanman. Did your consulting contract expire with the bank? When did that happen? Are you now working full-time as a realtor?</blockquote>
Thanks IR2...yeah, the consulting project ended in late September. My focus is still finishing up the CPA Exam and getting my CPA license the first part of next year. At that point, I will have to determine which road I will go down.
 
Question for all you Sages on this board - I've been lurking on here awhile but not much posting.

My wife and i would like to move to Irvine, a good time for us to do this would be in about 3.5 years when our youngest graduates high school here in Texas.

Reason for wanting to move - get closer to relatives. Relatives live in Westpark, so that's our target neighborhood. Scary prices, specially to us; the ones we like are in the 700 - 800k range...

We're professionals, household income over 200k, and we've saved enough to come up with a 250k downpayment. Relatives advise buying a house now, before we get priced out. Rent it out for next 3.5 years, then move.

My question is, might it be smarter to wait for more supply, and perhaps lower prices? I'm kind of concerned that interest rates may move up, so even though prices go down we might wind up with higher payments?

It could also be argued that if there's more supply, we may be able to find exactly the right house we want rather than paying a bit more for a slightly larger than what we want now because that's all there is.



Thanks for your wisdom!
 
[quote author="IH_Wannabe" date=1257333218]Question for all you Sages on this board - I've been lurking on here awhile but not much posting.

My wife and i would like to move to Irvine, a good time for us to do this would be in about 3.5 years when our youngest graduates high school here in Texas.

Reason for wanting to move - get closer to relatives. Relatives live in Westpark, so that's our target neighborhood. Scary prices, specially to us; the ones we like are in the 700 - 800k range...

We're professionals, household income over 200k, and we've saved enough to come up with a 250k downpayment. Relatives advise buying a house now, before we get priced out. Rent it out for next 3.5 years, then move.

My question is, might it be smarter to wait for more supply, and perhaps lower prices? I'm kind of concerned that interest rates may move up, so even though prices go down we might wind up with higher payments?

It could also be argued that if there's more supply, we may be able to find exactly the right house we want rather than paying a bit more for a slightly larger than what we want now because that's all there is.



Thanks for your wisdom!</blockquote>
Thanks for coming out of Lurkerville and posting. :) If you can wait, I would wait. The inventory levels are so low right now that you'll be competing against countless more desperate buyers who need to buy a home NOW. I would wait until inventory levels increase because you won't have to deal with as many possible buyers. The other problem for you in my eyes is that you are not here to see a property as soon as it comes out on the market. I have found that being quick and putting your offer in first can get you some leverage with listing agents/sellers to at least give you a last crack at the property so you have to move lightening quick in this seller's market. Also, with more inventory chances are that you'll be better able to find something that you like quicker. All that being said, I don't see prices skyrocketing up by 10% anytime soon. I honestly think rates will stay below 6% in 2010. Also, would you be comfortable in having to fund an shortfall between your costs and the rent you collect for a few years (but you will be able to depreciate the property and most likely be able to take an active real estate tax loss of up to $25k against your ordinary earned income)?
 
[quote author="IH_Wannabe" date=1257333218]Question for all you Sages on this board - I've been lurking on here awhile but not much posting.

My wife and i would like to move to Irvine, a good time for us to do this would be in about 3.5 years when our youngest graduates high school here in Texas.

Reason for wanting to move - get closer to relatives. Relatives live in Westpark, so that's our target neighborhood. Scary prices, specially to us; the ones we like are in the 700 - 800k range...

We're professionals, household income over 200k, and we've saved enough to come up with a 250k downpayment. Relatives advise buying a house now, before we get priced out. Rent it out for next 3.5 years, then move.

My question is, might it be smarter to wait for more supply, and perhaps lower prices? I'm kind of concerned that interest rates may move up, so even though prices go down we might wind up with higher payments?

It could also be argued that if there's more supply, we may be able to find exactly the right house we want rather than paying a bit more for a slightly larger than what we want now because that's all there is.



Thanks for your wisdom!</blockquote>
IMO, prices will come down, although not immediately, and interest rates will go up.
 
[quote author="IH_Wannabe" date=1257333218]Question for all you Sages on this board - I've been lurking on here awhile but not much posting.

My wife and i would like to move to Irvine, a good time for us to do this would be in about 3.5 years when our youngest graduates high school here in Texas.

Reason for wanting to move - get closer to relatives. Relatives live in Westpark, so that's our target neighborhood. Scary prices, specially to us; the ones we like are in the 700 - 800k range...

We're professionals, household income over 200k, and we've saved enough to come up with a 250k downpayment. Relatives advise buying a house now, before we get priced out. Rent it out for next 3.5 years, then move.

My question is, might it be smarter to wait for more supply, and perhaps lower prices? I'm kind of concerned that interest rates may move up, so even though prices go down we might wind up with higher payments?

It could also be argued that if there's more supply, we may be able to find exactly the right house we want rather than paying a bit more for a slightly larger than what we want now because that's all there is.



Thanks for your wisdom!</blockquote>


Best to wait.



Long distance landlord is a pain in the ass. If you hire a property manager, it will cost you (8 to 10% I've heard).



I have heard/seen many, many problems with angry renters lately. Turning on the water to ruin the floor upstairs intentionally; renter refusing to pay rent and eventually getting evicted; 3 or 4 renters leaving at once from a 12 unit complex(high turn over). Renter that rented for only a month or so before they left(cops were banging on their door at 2 or 3am Saturday night). Another renter that chose to leave but is suing the landlord to get her deposit back. This is all within the last 6 to 12 months. Most of these incidents were in my neighborhood which has a median house price of around $900k (and dropping) so it's not like I'm in the ghetto.





I don't know about Irvine but in the SF Bay Area there is an oversupply of rental properties, rent prices are dropping faster than any place in the US, and vacancies are at the highest levels in one or two decades.

Plus what if house prices drop?



Ok fine. You're not convinced.

Here's what you need to do; Educate yourself as much as you can.



Check out the irvinehousingblog.com library:http://www.idealhomebrokers.com/library/

The information and analysis is very strong

I have learned more from this blog than any other source.



One you have a full grasp of how things work, then you can make an informed decision.
 
[quote author="mike23w" date=1257501677][quote author="IH_Wannabe" date=1257333218]Question for all you Sages on this board - I've been lurking on here awhile but not much posting.

My wife and i would like to move to Irvine, a good time for us to do this would be in about 3.5 years when our youngest graduates high school here in Texas.

Reason for wanting to move - get closer to relatives. Relatives live in Westpark, so that's our target neighborhood. Scary prices, specially to us; the ones we like are in the 700 - 800k range...

We're professionals, household income over 200k, and we've saved enough to come up with a 250k downpayment. Relatives advise buying a house now, before we get priced out. Rent it out for next 3.5 years, then move.

My question is, might it be smarter to wait for more supply, and perhaps lower prices? I'm kind of concerned that interest rates may move up, so even though prices go down we might wind up with higher payments?

It could also be argued that if there's more supply, we may be able to find exactly the right house we want rather than paying a bit more for a slightly larger than what we want now because that's all there is.



Thanks for your wisdom!</blockquote>


Best to wait.



Long distance landlord is a pain in the ass. If you hire a property manager, it will cost you (8 to 10% I've heard).



I have heard/seen many, many problems with angry renters lately. Turning on the water to ruin the floor upstairs intentionally; renter refusing to pay rent and eventually getting evicted; 3 or 4 renters leaving at once from a 12 unit complex(high turn over). Renter that rented for only a month or so before they left(cops were banging on their door at 2 or 3am Saturday night). Another renter that chose to leave but is suing the landlord to get her deposit back. This is all within the last 6 to 12 months. Most of these incidents were in my neighborhood which has a median house price of around $900k (and dropping) so it's not like I'm in the ghetto.





I don't know about Irvine but in the SF Bay Area there is an oversupply of rental properties, rent prices are dropping faster than any place in the US, and vacancies are at the highest levels in one or two decades.

Plus what if house prices drop?



Ok fine. You're not convinced.

Here's what you need to do; Educate yourself as much as you can.



Check out the irvinehousingblog.com library:http://www.idealhomebrokers.com/library/

The information and analysis is very strong

I have learned more from this blog than any other source.



One you have a full grasp of how things work, then you can make an informed decision.</blockquote>


i think your relatives are right - you will pay more for a place in 3.5 years. however, it won't be trashed which will cost you to fix plus you almost certain to lose money during the 3.5 years as rent never has covered the full total cost of home ownership in premium locations. all things considered my bet is that its a zero sum game for you to buy now just to rent out the place. just make sure you don't lose your down payment by investing in risky stuff while you wait to buy. you may not end up in westpark either - in 3.5 years laguna crossings may be open if you want a better southern location / updated architecture... best of luck.
 
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