General observation from the front lines about the Irvine housing market...

usctrojanman29_IHB

usctrojanman29_IHB

New member
I am currently working with a few buyers who are actively looking for a SFR in Irvine. I have the following general observations:



1) Short Sale listings tend to have the best pricing

2) 80%+ of the short sale listings are NOT approved by the lenders

3) Any decent priced home (majority of them are short sales) get multiple offers, including over list price (some even sight unseen)

4) There are almost 0 bank owned active MLS listings (REOs)

5) Most of the organic sellers who have equity list their homes for WTF prices, at times extreme WTF prices that are even higher than bubble peak prices (I wonder if they are serious sellers or are they fishing for suckers?)

6) Organic sellers are unwilling to lower their prices by very much or just straight up reject offers

7) Listing agents have serious attitudes and are somewhat unpleasant (maybe this is because of the lack of inventory and amount of bidders out there?)

8) A fair number of RE agents play little tricks with their short sale listings and few know what stage the short sale approval is in



Note that these are not entry level SFR homes that I'm looking at, but more for "move-up" buyers. The market really feels like it did during the bubble years but without the price hikes. If you guys have any questions, fire away...
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1244174731]I am currently working with a few buyers who are actively looking for a SFR in Irvine. I have the following general observations:



5) Most of the organic sellers who have equity list their homes for WTF prices, at times extreme WTF prices that are even higher than bubble peak prices (I wonder if they are serious sellers or are they fishing for suckers?)

6) Organic sellers are unwilling to lower their prices by very much or just straight up reject offers



Note that these are not entry level SFR homes that I'm looking at, but more for "move-up" buyers. The market really feels like it did during the bubble years but without the price hikes. If you guys have any questions, fire away...</blockquote>


I agree with you on the seriousness of these sellers. Do you think these sellers are planning to "move-up" or retirees looking to move?



Irvine <em>seems</em> to be full of such sellers when it comes to SFRs. If they intend to sell, prices need to be inline with the market demands.
 
[quote author="lowlyrenter" date=1244182447][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1244174731]I am currently working with a few buyers who are actively looking for a SFR in Irvine. I have the following general observations:



5) Most of the organic sellers who have equity list their homes for WTF prices, at times extreme WTF prices that are even higher than bubble peak prices (I wonder if they are serious sellers or are they fishing for suckers?)

6) Organic sellers are unwilling to lower their prices by very much or just straight up reject offers



Note that these are not entry level SFR homes that I'm looking at, but more for "move-up" buyers. The market really feels like it did during the bubble years but without the price hikes. If you guys have any questions, fire away...</blockquote>


I agree with you on the seriousness of these sellers. Do you think these sellers are planning to "move-up" or retirees looking to move?



Irvine <em>seems</em> to be full of such sellers when it comes to SFRs. If they intend to sell, prices need to be inline with the market demands.</blockquote>
It is tough to tell whether the sellers are going to be "move up" buyers or if they are retirees looking to downgrade. These organic sellers with this built up equity purchased their properties mostly in the 90s so they have substantial equity in their homes. These overpriced homes just sit and collect dust on MLS. One of my buyers even sent me a FSBO (for-sale-by-owner) listing in Westpark that was asking for $400,000-$500,000 above most recent sale comps in the area, if that's not fishing for a sucker than I don't know what is. It really makes me wonder if the current sellers sense blood in the water (via low inventory levels) and are seeing if they can find a buyer that is willing their elevated asking price. Do they not understand that their properties will never appraise? Or do they think they'll find a sucker who'll came in with 40%+ down? I really think we need more REOs properties out on the market to force these organic sellers to become more realistic in their price expectations.



Rising jumbo rates + tight lending standards + coming REOs = trouble for the organic sellers with WTF asking prices.
 
That's what I want to know... when are all the little circles on graph's FR chart going to hit the market... I have my board and I want to ride that wave.



Also... organic sellers with equity are in no rush to sell since they can probably afford their mortgage. But I think if they're serious... they would list at the right price because it's a big inconvenience to upkeep your house for presentation (unless of course they don't care and just leave the house as is everyday).



Where do you see most of the WTF pricing?
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1244184237]That's what I want to know... when are all the little circles on graph's FR chart going to hit the market... I have my board and I want to ride that wave.



Also... organic sellers with equity are in no rush to sell since they can probably afford their mortgage. But I think if they're serious... they would list at the right price because it's a big inconvenience to upkeep your house for presentation (unless of course they don't care and just leave the house as is everyday).



Where do you see most of the WTF pricing?</blockquote>
If I could predict when these REOs will hit the market, I'd be a rich man. So to answer your question, I don't know. They are coming, it's just a matter of how quickly the banks bring them to market.



Where am I seeing most of the WTF pricing? Well, it's almost in every Irvine Village but a high percentage of them are in Westpark, Turtle Rock, and Northwood Pointe.



I would be interesting to hear from the other realtors on here like IR2 as to what they are seeing.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1244185032][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1244184237]That's what I want to know... when are all the little circles on graph's FR chart going to hit the market... I have my board and I want to ride that wave.



Also... organic sellers with equity are in no rush to sell since they can probably afford their mortgage. But I think if they're serious... they would list at the right price because it's a big inconvenience to upkeep your house for presentation (unless of course they don't care and just leave the house as is everyday).



Where do you see most of the WTF pricing?</blockquote>
If I could predict when these REOs will hit the market, I'd be a rich man. So to answer your question, I don't know. They are coming, it's just a matter of how quickly the banks bring them to market.



Where am I seeing most of the WTF pricing? Well, it's almost in every Irvine Village but a high percentage of them are in Westpark, Turtle Rock, and Northwood Pointe.



I would be interesting to hear from the other realtors on here like IR2 as to what they are seeing.</blockquote>


Those villages are immune to price decreases. Didn't you get the memo?
 
[quote author="Goofy" date=1244185243][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1244185032][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1244184237]That's what I want to know... when are all the little circles on graph's FR chart going to hit the market... I have my board and I want to ride that wave.



Also... organic sellers with equity are in no rush to sell since they can probably afford their mortgage. But I think if they're serious... they would list at the right price because it's a big inconvenience to upkeep your house for presentation (unless of course they don't care and just leave the house as is everyday).



Where do you see most of the WTF pricing?</blockquote>
If I could predict when these REOs will hit the market, I'd be a rich man. So to answer your question, I don't know. They are coming, it's just a matter of how quickly the banks bring them to market.



Where am I seeing most of the WTF pricing? Well, it's almost in every Irvine Village but a high percentage of them are in Westpark, Turtle Rock, and Northwood Pointe.



I would be interesting to hear from the other realtors on here like IR2 as to what they are seeing.</blockquote>


Those villages are immune to price decreases. Didn't you get the memo?</blockquote>
Not only are they immune to price decreases, but the memo stated that the values should be higher than the peak bubble prices.
 
[quote author="traceimage" date=1244183750]When are the REOs coming?</blockquote>


Golfer_X says that the floodgates of REOs opened this week in the IE
 
Where can I subscribe to this memo mailing list? IrvineFCBs.com?



This might be a questoin for graph but can the banks just sit on the REOs until they think the market is better? I know that is expensive but they'll just get that money from the gov/taxpayer.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1244186464][quote author="Goofy" date=1244185243][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1244185032][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1244184237]That's what I want to know... when are all the little circles on graph's FR chart going to hit the market... I have my board and I want to ride that wave.



Also... organic sellers with equity are in no rush to sell since they can probably afford their mortgage. But I think if they're serious... they would list at the right price because it's a big inconvenience to upkeep your house for presentation (unless of course they don't care and just leave the house as is everyday).



Where do you see most of the WTF pricing?</blockquote>
If I could predict when these REOs will hit the market, I'd be a rich man. So to answer your question, I don't know. They are coming, it's just a matter of how quickly the banks bring them to market.



Where am I seeing most of the WTF pricing? Well, it's almost in every Irvine Village but a high percentage of them are in Westpark, Turtle Rock, and Northwood Pointe.



I would be interesting to hear from the other realtors on here like IR2 as to what they are seeing.</blockquote>


Those villages are immune to price decreases. Didn't you get the memo?</blockquote>
Not only are they immune to price decreases, but the memo stated that the values should be higher than the peak bubble prices.</blockquote>


That's right. So when you bargain down to peak bubble price you know you've got a great deal.
 
[quote author="Goofy" date=1244188673][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1244186464][quote author="Goofy" date=1244185243][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1244185032][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1244184237]That's what I want to know... when are all the little circles on graph's FR chart going to hit the market... I have my board and I want to ride that wave.



Also... organic sellers with equity are in no rush to sell since they can probably afford their mortgage. But I think if they're serious... they would list at the right price because it's a big inconvenience to upkeep your house for presentation (unless of course they don't care and just leave the house as is everyday).



Where do you see most of the WTF pricing?</blockquote>
If I could predict when these REOs will hit the market, I'd be a rich man. So to answer your question, I don't know. They are coming, it's just a matter of how quickly the banks bring them to market.



Where am I seeing most of the WTF pricing? Well, it's almost in every Irvine Village but a high percentage of them are in Westpark, Turtle Rock, and Northwood Pointe.



I would be interesting to hear from the other realtors on here like IR2 as to what they are seeing.</blockquote>


Those villages are immune to price decreases. Didn't you get the memo?</blockquote>
Not only are they immune to price decreases, but the memo stated that the values should be higher than the peak bubble prices.</blockquote>


That's right. So when you bargain down to peak bubble price you know you've got a great deal.</blockquote>


I don't believe the big wave is going to get here anytime soon. Unless there is another map that displays something different from ForeclosureRadar, this is what I see when I do some homework:



Culverdale neighborhood -



There are hundreds of homes in this section of Westpark. I know, I know, everybody here calls it trashy and old. Well, of those hundreds of trashy, old homes, I count a whole 12 homes that show up in FR as either bank owned or in some state of foreclosure. I know that one of those houses has sold and while FR hasn't taken it off the map, I count it as off the market. Another one is an active listing. A third one has disappeared from the FR map and isn't showing up on the MLS map, so I don't know what happened to it. That leaves a whopping nine houses that makes up the future inventory, six, nine, 12 months from now, in addition to the organic sellers who think their homes haven't lost any value. The last time I saw a new circle pop up in Culverdale on FR? I think it was 3/20/09, the date of the NOD. Oh, and all of the houses are either on Claremont, the street that backs to the 405, or are within one block of Claremont.



Westpark San Carlo neighborhood -



Worse pickings here. Betwen San Carlo park and Alton, and counting one house south of the park, FR shows eight houses as either P or A. Also, FR shows that one of those was bought by a 3rd party on the courthouse steps in 12/08 and another one was cancelled. What that means, I don't know. Of the remaining six houses, the So Cal MLS shows that two are active listings right now and one is a sale that closed 5/7/09. That leaves three, possibly four (if you count the "cancelled" house) houses out of the original group of eight that may actually be inventory sometime in the future.





It's too time consuming for me, and I tried to do this in Woodbridge but the condo addresses are too hard to try to compare them to MLS listings, to do this all over Irvine, but in the few neighborhoods that I've looked at like this, the real future "wave" inventory is about half of what is showing up on the FR map.
 
[quote author="nefron" date=1244198588][quote author="Goofy" date=1244188673][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1244186464][quote author="Goofy" date=1244185243][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1244185032][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1244184237]That's what I want to know... when are all the little circles on graph's FR chart going to hit the market... I have my board and I want to ride that wave.



Also... organic sellers with equity are in no rush to sell since they can probably afford their mortgage. But I think if they're serious... they would list at the right price because it's a big inconvenience to upkeep your house for presentation (unless of course they don't care and just leave the house as is everyday).



Where do you see most of the WTF pricing?</blockquote>
If I could predict when these REOs will hit the market, I'd be a rich man. So to answer your question, I don't know. They are coming, it's just a matter of how quickly the banks bring them to market.



Where am I seeing most of the WTF pricing? Well, it's almost in every Irvine Village but a high percentage of them are in Westpark, Turtle Rock, and Northwood Pointe.



I would be interesting to hear from the other realtors on here like IR2 as to what they are seeing.</blockquote>


Those villages are immune to price decreases. Didn't you get the memo?</blockquote>
Not only are they immune to price decreases, but the memo stated that the values should be higher than the peak bubble prices.</blockquote>


That's right. So when you bargain down to peak bubble price you know you've got a great deal.</blockquote>


I don't believe the big wave is going to get here anytime soon. Unless there is another map that displays something different from ForeclosureRadar, this is what I see when I do some homework:



Culverdale neighborhood -



There are hundreds of homes in this section of Westpark. I know, I know, everybody here calls it trashy and old. Well, of those hundreds of trashy, old homes, I count a whole 12 homes that show up in FR as either bank owned or in some state of foreclosure. I know that one of those houses has sold and while FR hasn't taken it off the map, I count it as off the market. Another one is an active listing. A third one has disappeared from the FR map and isn't showing up on the MLS map, so I don't know what happened to it. That leaves a whopping nine houses that makes up the future inventory, six, nine, 12 months from now, in addition to the organic sellers who think their homes haven't lost any value. The last time I saw a new circle pop up in Culverdale on FR? I think it was 3/20/09, the date of the NOD. Oh, and all of the houses are either on Claremont, the street that backs to the 405, or are within one block of Claremont.



Westpark San Carlo neighborhood -



Worse pickings here. Betwen San Carlo park and Alton, and counting one house south of the park, FR shows eight houses as either P or A. Also, FR shows that one of those was bought by a 3rd party on the courthouse steps in 12/08 and another one was cancelled. What that means, I don't know. Of the remaining six houses, the So Cal MLS shows that two are active listings right now and one is a sale that closed 5/7/09. That leaves three, possibly four (if you count the "cancelled" house) houses out of the original group of eight that may actually be inventory sometime in the future.





It's too time consuming for me, and I tried to do this in Woodbridge but the condo addresses are too hard to try to compare them to MLS listings, to do this all over Irvine, but in the few neighborhoods that I've looked at like this, the real future "wave" inventory is about half of what is showing up on the FR map.</blockquote>
Don't you worry, mortgage rates over 6% will do the trick in decreasing home prices in Irvine.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1244174731]I am currently working with a few buyers who are actively looking for a SFR in Irvine. I have the following general observations:



1) Short Sale listings tend to have the best pricing

2) 80%+ of the short sale listings are NOT approved by the lenders

3) Any decent priced home (majority of them are short sales) get multiple offers, including over list price (some even sight unseen)

4) There are almost 0 bank owned active MLS listings (REOs)

5) Most of the organic sellers who have equity list their homes for WTF prices, at times extreme WTF prices that are even higher than bubble peak prices (I wonder if they are serious sellers or are they fishing for suckers?)

6) Organic sellers are unwilling to lower their prices by very much or just straight up reject offers

7) Listing agents have serious attitudes and are somewhat unpleasant (maybe this is because of the lack of inventory and amount of bidders out there?)

8) A fair number of RE agents play little tricks with their short sale listings and few know what stage the short sale approval is in



Note that these are not entry level SFR homes that I'm looking at, but more for "move-up" buyers. The market really feels like it did during the bubble years but without the price hikes. If you guys have any questions, fire away...</blockquote>


This also applies to Costa Mesa, Newport Beach, Huntington Beach, Fountain Valley, Tustin, Orange, Fullerton, & Yorba Linda with the exception of #4. The #4s fall into two camps: 1) smart asset managers that grossly underprice the market resulting in the #3 scenario with multiple bids on day one and bidding wars netting premium pricing 2)trashed places that need major rehab to be a servicable rental which basically are a WTF price when the rehab cost is added to it. There's nothing in between for bank owned other than an occasional stray that thinks its 2006.



Bank owned is hot hot hot. So hot in fact that if I was a seller, I'd be tempted to tell my agent to mistakenly flag the home as bank owned on the MLS. If it's bank owned and sitting, it likely has serious problems and the bank isn't ready to take the pummeling on it.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1244198863][quote author="nefron" date=1244198588][quote author="Goofy" date=1244188673][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1244186464][quote author="Goofy" date=1244185243][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1244185032][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1244184237]That's what I want to know... when are all the little circles on graph's FR chart going to hit the market... I have my board and I want to ride that wave.



Also... organic sellers with equity are in no rush to sell since they can probably afford their mortgage. But I think if they're serious... they would list at the right price because it's a big inconvenience to upkeep your house for presentation (unless of course they don't care and just leave the house as is everyday).



Where do you see most of the WTF pricing?</blockquote>
If I could predict when these REOs will hit the market, I'd be a rich man. So to answer your question, I don't know. They are coming, it's just a matter of how quickly the banks bring them to market.



Where am I seeing most of the WTF pricing? Well, it's almost in every Irvine Village but a high percentage of them are in Westpark, Turtle Rock, and Northwood Pointe.



I would be interesting to hear from the other realtors on here like IR2 as to what they are seeing.</blockquote>


Those villages are immune to price decreases. Didn't you get the memo?</blockquote>
Not only are they immune to price decreases, but the memo stated that the values should be higher than the peak bubble prices.</blockquote>


That's right. So when you bargain down to peak bubble price you know you've got a great deal.</blockquote>


I don't believe the big wave is going to get here anytime soon. Unless there is another map that displays something different from ForeclosureRadar, this is what I see when I do some homework:



Culverdale neighborhood -



There are hundreds of homes in this section of Westpark. I know, I know, everybody here calls it trashy and old. Well, of those hundreds of trashy, old homes, I count a whole 12 homes that show up in FR as either bank owned or in some state of foreclosure. I know that one of those houses has sold and while FR hasn't taken it off the map, I count it as off the market. Another one is an active listing. A third one has disappeared from the FR map and isn't showing up on the MLS map, so I don't know what happened to it. That leaves a whopping nine houses that makes up the future inventory, six, nine, 12 months from now, in addition to the organic sellers who think their homes haven't lost any value. The last time I saw a new circle pop up in Culverdale on FR? I think it was 3/20/09, the date of the NOD. Oh, and all of the houses are either on Claremont, the street that backs to the 405, or are within one block of Claremont.



Westpark San Carlo neighborhood -



Worse pickings here. Betwen San Carlo park and Alton, and counting one house south of the park, FR shows eight houses as either P or A. Also, FR shows that one of those was bought by a 3rd party on the courthouse steps in 12/08 and another one was cancelled. What that means, I don't know. Of the remaining six houses, the So Cal MLS shows that two are active listings right now and one is a sale that closed 5/7/09. That leaves three, possibly four (if you count the "cancelled" house) houses out of the original group of eight that may actually be inventory sometime in the future.





It's too time consuming for me, and I tried to do this in Woodbridge but the condo addresses are too hard to try to compare them to MLS listings, to do this all over Irvine, but in the few neighborhoods that I've looked at like this, the real future "wave" inventory is about half of what is showing up on the FR map.</blockquote>
Don't you worry, mortgage rates over 6% will do the trick in decreasing home prices in Irvine.</blockquote>


But it won't increase inventory.
 
[quote author="nefron" date=1244202009]

But it won't increase inventory.</blockquote>


Time will increase inventory.



Inventory is low because prices decreased rapidly.



Remember the mantra of buy now or be priced out forever? Those that bought are <b>priced in</b>.



They can't sell and are hanging on hoping the market is beginning to rebound. Those that have figured out that it won't are trying to get their agent friends to help game the system to let them stay in the home without making payments for 1 to 2 years while they stretch out the short sale game by being difficult to let people in to view the property. Leaving the place a mess when people do get to see it, etc. while talking the bank up about trying to do the short sale to delay the NOD. It's then basically four months and probably longer to actually foreclose on them once the bank figures out that at 300 DOM the house isn't going to sell...
 
[quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1244202972][quote author="nefron" date=1244202009]

But it won't increase inventory.</blockquote>


Time will increase inventory.



Inventory is low because prices decreased rapidly.



Remember the mantra of buy now or be priced out forever? Those that bought are <b>priced in</b>.



They can't sell and are hanging on hoping the market is beginning to rebound. Those that have figured out that it won't are trying to get their agent friends to help game the system to let them stay in the home without making payments for 1 to 2 years while they stretch out the short sale game by being difficult to let people in to view the property. Leaving the place a mess when people do get to see it, etc. while talking the bank up about trying to do the short sale to delay the NOD. It's then basically four months and probably longer to actually foreclose on them once the bank figures out that at 300 DOM the house isn't going to sell...</blockquote>


But what I am pointing out is that these P's and A's on FR right now are the short sales six months from now and maybe the foreclosures a year from now. There are very few of them. And everyone else is hanging on to their house for dear life. Maybe people who buy now don't care if they are 'priced in.' What if they plan on being there 15 years or more? Then why should they care about the market's gyrations?
 
No. Those P's & A's are short sales now. They are REOs six months from now.



Tomorrow more short sales show up from people that are tired of the fight.



If you buy now and can comfortably afford the payment more power to you. That's why any decently priced home is blowing off the market.
 
[quote author="No_Such_Reality" date=1244204583]If you buy now and can comfortably afford the payment more power to you. That's why any decently priced home is blowing off the market.</blockquote>


Apparently quite a few buyers fit into this category and I do believe there are more that are waiting to pull the trigger.



Rising mortgage rates alone will not drastically decrease home prices, but the combination of mortgage rates and increase foreclosures/REO will. I am sticking to my words, there will be no significant change in this market till the end of this year. By that time, the reality will hit when people realize the economic recovery will be slow and jobless rates stay persistenly high.



Inventory will remain relatively low in the next few months as the majority of the houses priced between $300-350/sf will find buyers.
 
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