Foreclosure Statistics of the Week

graphrix_IHB

graphrix_IHB

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<p>Matthew Padilla at OCR <a href="http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/money/housing/article_1763241.php">reports</a> that Rick Sharga of RealtyTrac states that NODs will equal about 40% in foreclosure. My estimate is more like 34%.</p>

<p>If we take my June guestimate of 1055 NODs and the NODs since January for a total of 5575 with a 34% REO coversion rate OC will see another 1856 REOs between now and the end of the year. If we take the 40% coversion percentage to REOs that RealtyTrac states OC will see 2230 REOs between now and the end of the year. </p>

<p>Currently this is near the sales volume we have seen in the last month excluding new homes of 2351.</p>

<p>OC is averaging 930 NODs a month which is still below 1992 of 1056 a month but the year isn't over. By the end of the year I wouldn't be surprised if we surpass the 1992 average. From the OC Business council since 1990 OC has added 158k new units. If I knew what the amount of units that were availabke in 1990 I would adjust for growth. If anyone knows how I can find this data please let me know.</p>

<p>Anyway you look at it it is not good. So far for July it is a bit down compared to June when it comes to NODs but five business days is not a true gauge. It could pick up or it could slow down and either way I will state which ever it is. The average NODs has increased by 5% since March but the NODs have increased by 7%.</p>
 
Sorry for my being kinda slow here, but will you please clarify something for me? Are you saying the number of REOs in a month will be greater than the number of homes sold in a month?<p><p>If I am reading this correctly, the number of foreclosures coming on the market will equal demand? All the homes that folks want to sell and the homes that builders build will be extra?<p><p>

What if the number of buyers lessens?
 
<p>I posted that late at night and I was really tired. I just had to get it out so I may not have been as clear as I could have been.</p>

<p>If you take the amount of NODs for the first six months of the year which I guestimate at 5575. A 34% to 40% coversion rate would add between now and the end of the year 1856 - 2230 homes on the market. That would be almost one month's worth of demand added to the supply.</p>

<p>If the number of buyers lessens it simply would be adding even more supply to the alreadly low demand.</p>

<p>If between now and the end of the year builders add 2000 more homes they will exceed demand adding to the problem.</p>
 
<p>Which way do you see the NOD to REO conversion rate trending? I know there are distant markets in excess of 80% right now. It would seem that there's room for us to grow.</p>

<p>Re-reading the above, it looks like 34% to 40% are projections. If so, where do we stand today?</p>

<p>Sorry, I'm a little slow this morning, er, afternoon. </p>
 
<p>Rough night last night?</p>

<p>Honestly it is hard to tell any trend right now. The banks were not prepared for an onslaught this big. So they are slow to convert to REO. Where in a well staffed time it would take six months for it to go back to the bank and now it takes nine to twelve months but improving. Right now we are about 34% but if the banks get their act together 40% will be more likely. </p>

<p>By the way the RealtyTrac foreclosure data that Padilla reported is off because a statistical error. There was one less business day in June compared to May. For all of Cali instead of being down 2% it was up 2.7% when you factor in the extra day and OC was down 3.6% vs. 8%. </p>

<p>I don't care for RealtyTrac's data and on Monday the DQ data should be out. I know that NODs were up and I am confident that REOs were but I think there was a drop in NTSs. I also think that REOs will be up in July pretty big.</p>
 
<p>oc - Are you posting on your blog? I went to it today and it was invite only. I wanted the Nef Cortez link, do you know how many links I have to sift through in my housing bubble folder to find it?</p>
 
I was watching CNBC yesterday....not 30 minutes passed during the day without the word "SUBPRIME" coming up. Several reports about housing/foreclosure, ALL very bearish. Indicators that the worst has yet to come...etc.
 
<p>no... I hid the blog because I was still getting people wandering in from time to time and asking me questions. I kindly refer them all to here. </p>

<p>I kind of miss blogging but I've been doing stuff that's much more fun these days. This evening I rode a bike from Westpark to Coto. Yes, that's enjoyable. Am I sick or what?</p>
 
oc_fliptrack, may I ask you when you sleep? 'cause if the times are accurate on these forums, you have been doing an awful lot of 3a.m. posting!
 
You will have plenty of time to sleep when you're dead. J/K. I take power naps if I have time and it makes a world of difference.
 
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