Daedalus_IHB
New member
Wow! Things are improving FAST!
Foreclosure and distressed property topics
- Thread starter graphrix_IHB
- Start date
NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
To get those numbers I threw in a wild-card for cities, limited to Orange County only, 3 beds (not 3+) only, 3 full baths (not 2.5+) only, and a price range of $400-800K.
There is also a "check box" within data entry for the broker to note if a property is going to be a short sale. I added that second search to come up with the short sale #, which is most likely higher than reported, if some sales come in below asking.
Thanks. Isn't a 3/full 3 kind of a strange setup? I wonder how many of the 3/3 are really 3/3 and not 3/2.5 or 3/2.75. A 3/3 makes sense but pretty much sets up for a dual master/jr. master setup.
What's the target demographic? Multi-gen? Professional with roommate? Single parent & live in parisian au pair?
Is there a pricing premium for like liveable SF for a 3/3 over a 3/2.5?
Depending on the location of that third full bath, there can be a significant premium paid. If there is one bed and one full bath on the main floor, older parents who no longer wish to go up and down stairs can "fit" with the home.
It is also a nice feature if you have friends/travelling guests that stay overnight, that can do their thing in a much different area of the home.
I agree the third bath, but I would think more along the lines of a 4/3. A 3/3 seems short a bedroom to leverage the older parents or for friends/guest demographic restricting to a DINK/single professional target. The scenarios were a 3rd full bath is needed with 3 beds seems to limit to none or one child.
1. Yes, maybe you can negotiate with the HOA, but they are run by people who live there and have their head in the sand.
2. Yes.
3. Why Chicago title? Are you citing something specific? PM if you don't want to give your reasons public.
It seems NODs are plateauing and flatting out for OC. Don't believe bull's spin on this, they are still at record levels, just not rising. However, take a look at NTSs for OC and Irvine, they continue to increase. More NTSs = more foreclosures, more foreclosures = further price drops, further price drops = more NODs. History tells us a drop in NODs will come, but since NTSs and foreclosures lag, then they will go up again before the true plateau.
Just ran some numbers for theoretically rental parity on my condo, which will hopefully close tomorrow or Friday, and came up with a value in the low to mid $500s for it to be a push with renting based on current interest rates... That suggests only another 10% or more to go for its price decline. Guess the decision by my buyer to purchase wasn't necessarily that horrific.
I ran the same calc for our rental home, which would probably sell today for $825K or so, and it needs to be down to $725-750K for it be roughly equivalent with the rent I pay today. Again, another 10% or so.
If those figures are close to accurate, I sure hope we overshoot rental parity first so I can buy the next place during that timeframe.
I want to run a chain of title report on one property in the upcoming auction.
Could you tell me contact info of Chicago Title ?
If you or anyone know other tilte company with cheaper and better service ,
plz share me the info.
Thanks
---
By the way, I found out buyer can call Recon 800-281-8129 auto voice system
then enter 7 digit TS number to get Opening Bid Amt
Plz skip the first 2 digit out of 9 digit TS number
For example:
7 DEERWOOD EAST
TS Number: 200819899
Notice of Sale Amt: $726,518.94
Opening Bid Amt: 0
You just enter 0819899
It will tell you Opening Bid start at $472,500
No_Such_Reality_IHB
New member
IR2, is that Irvine only or is it 3/3 not 3+/3+? I see 237+ in Irvine at 3+/3+ under $800K.
I get 417 3+/3+ under $800K SFR or Condo on the map grid that runs from the 55 to the Y. I get another 500+ rolling the map south to Crown Valley Parkway for the area between the Aliso and 241. And another 300 or so south of that.
Going north, I get 400ish south of First to the beach.
I get 417 3+/3+ under $800K SFR or Condo on the map grid that runs from the 55 to the Y. I get another 500+ rolling the map south to Crown Valley Parkway for the area between the Aliso and 241. And another 300 or so south of that.
Going north, I get 400ish south of First to the beach.
IrvineRealtor_IHB
New member
No_Such_Reality said:
To get those numbers I threw in a wild-card for cities, limited to Orange County only, 3 beds (not 3+) only, 3 full baths (not 2.5+) only, and a price range of $400-800K.
There is also a "check box" within data entry for the broker to note if a property is going to be a short sale. I added that second search to come up with the short sale #, which is most likely higher than reported, if some sales come in below asking.
greenpot168_IHB
New member
graphrix
1. If the HOA is past due for one whole year, does the new owner need to pay 12 months HOA after obtaining property through auction ?
2. If the property tax is past due for one whole year, does the new owner need to pay the overdue property tax ?
3. Could you kindly provide me contact info. of Chicago Titles?
Thanks
1. If the HOA is past due for one whole year, does the new owner need to pay 12 months HOA after obtaining property through auction ?
2. If the property tax is past due for one whole year, does the new owner need to pay the overdue property tax ?
3. Could you kindly provide me contact info. of Chicago Titles?
Thanks
No_Such_Reality_IHB
New member
'IrvineRealtor said:
Thanks. Isn't a 3/full 3 kind of a strange setup? I wonder how many of the 3/3 are really 3/3 and not 3/2.5 or 3/2.75. A 3/3 makes sense but pretty much sets up for a dual master/jr. master setup.
What's the target demographic? Multi-gen? Professional with roommate? Single parent & live in parisian au pair?
Is there a pricing premium for like liveable SF for a 3/3 over a 3/2.5?
IrvineRealtor_IHB
New member
No_Such_Reality said:
Depending on the location of that third full bath, there can be a significant premium paid. If there is one bed and one full bath on the main floor, older parents who no longer wish to go up and down stairs can "fit" with the home.
It is also a nice feature if you have friends/travelling guests that stay overnight, that can do their thing in a much different area of the home.
No_Such_Reality_IHB
New member
IrvineRealtor said:
I agree the third bath, but I would think more along the lines of a 4/3. A 3/3 seems short a bedroom to leverage the older parents or for friends/guest demographic restricting to a DINK/single professional target. The scenarios were a 3rd full bath is needed with 3 beds seems to limit to none or one child.
ipoplaya_IHB
New member
Was just reviewing recent Irvine NODs. Looks like the volume has come down again in July... I think we have around 3.7 per business day so far. Still makes up over 50% of the monthly sales volume though. Amazing that listed inventory is still as low as it is. We're at Feb 2007 inventory levels right now...
graphrix_IHB
New member
greenpot168 said:
1. Yes, maybe you can negotiate with the HOA, but they are run by people who live there and have their head in the sand.
2. Yes.
3. Why Chicago title? Are you citing something specific? PM if you don't want to give your reasons public.
graphrix_IHB
New member
ipoplaya said:
It seems NODs are plateauing and flatting out for OC. Don't believe bull's spin on this, they are still at record levels, just not rising. However, take a look at NTSs for OC and Irvine, they continue to increase. More NTSs = more foreclosures, more foreclosures = further price drops, further price drops = more NODs. History tells us a drop in NODs will come, but since NTSs and foreclosures lag, then they will go up again before the true plateau.
No_Such_Reality_IHB
New member
It's a repeat of 1992. Or maybe 1993. Or is that 1994? Did '95 and '96 have the summer uptick and bottom calling where everybody thought the bottom was in and if they could just hold on a little while longer it was turning around and they'd get out next spring and be okay only to have their hopes crushed in the internal darkness of the home selling season winter of a down market with the glimmer of hope in the spring when the fence sitters snag the 'deals' and the few remaining seller up their prices from the doldrums to repeat and crush the hopes once again with the darkness of fall and the deal seekers petter out and run out of cash?
Run on sentence not withstanding, everybody thinks the bottom is in. The market will rebound in the spring, much like experienced now in Irvine, and it will rebound, but it's going to rebound from another 20% down this winter.
And the part that is really going to blow everybody up is that the rest of the National market on a whole will be rebounding and recovering because, ta da! they are at rental parity. It's just the bubbles that will be plummeled.
Repeatedly.
Pummeled.
And pummeled again.
Until we reach rental parity.
Run on sentence not withstanding, everybody thinks the bottom is in. The market will rebound in the spring, much like experienced now in Irvine, and it will rebound, but it's going to rebound from another 20% down this winter.
And the part that is really going to blow everybody up is that the rest of the National market on a whole will be rebounding and recovering because, ta da! they are at rental parity. It's just the bubbles that will be plummeled.
Repeatedly.
Pummeled.
And pummeled again.
Until we reach rental parity.
ipoplaya_IHB
New member
No_Such_Reality said:
Just ran some numbers for theoretically rental parity on my condo, which will hopefully close tomorrow or Friday, and came up with a value in the low to mid $500s for it to be a push with renting based on current interest rates... That suggests only another 10% or more to go for its price decline. Guess the decision by my buyer to purchase wasn't necessarily that horrific.
I ran the same calc for our rental home, which would probably sell today for $825K or so, and it needs to be down to $725-750K for it be roughly equivalent with the rent I pay today. Again, another 10% or so.
If those figures are close to accurate, I sure hope we overshoot rental parity first so I can buy the next place during that timeframe.
No_Such_Reality_IHB
New member
At $550K, the mortgage itself is $3500/month, $500 of which is trapped equity.
Rents are falling.
Rental parity isn't when taxes gets you back to even, it's when the front end mortgage and tax impound == rent.
It was that way in the mid-90s.
It will be that way again.
Rents are falling.
Rental parity isn't when taxes gets you back to even, it's when the front end mortgage and tax impound == rent.
It was that way in the mid-90s.
It will be that way again.
freedomCM_IHB
New member
and that "trapped equity" is evaporating.
graphrix_IHB
New member
Foreclosures pile up in central O.C.
As foreclosures add up, property values sink in Santa Ana, Anaheim and Garden Grove. But some first-time homebuyers are finding and grabbing the most affordable houses and condos in years.
But foreclosures also are spreading to areas not targeted by subprime lenders.
Some South County ZIPs rank in the county's top third for concentration of foreclosures, including parts of Lake Forest, Ladera Ranch, Rancho Santa Margarita and Aliso Viejo. Some market watchers say buyers with good, or pretty good, credit stretched to buy homes in those areas to live in or as investments. Now they can't afford their mortgages.
Here are the defaults...
http://www.ocregister.com/newsimages/money/2008/07/30_foreclosuresDEFAULTS.gif
The foreclosure ratio...
http://www.ocregister.com/newsimages/money/2008/07/30_foreclosuresRATIO.gif
The foreclosure rate change...
http://www.ocregister.com/newsimages/money/2008/07/30_foreclosuresRATECHANGE.gif
It is getting worse even in Irvine there are zips that are going to look really ugly for foreclosures due to the increase in defaults.
As foreclosures add up, property values sink in Santa Ana, Anaheim and Garden Grove. But some first-time homebuyers are finding and grabbing the most affordable houses and condos in years.
But foreclosures also are spreading to areas not targeted by subprime lenders.
Some South County ZIPs rank in the county's top third for concentration of foreclosures, including parts of Lake Forest, Ladera Ranch, Rancho Santa Margarita and Aliso Viejo. Some market watchers say buyers with good, or pretty good, credit stretched to buy homes in those areas to live in or as investments. Now they can't afford their mortgages.
Here are the defaults...
http://www.ocregister.com/newsimages/money/2008/07/30_foreclosuresDEFAULTS.gif
The foreclosure ratio...
http://www.ocregister.com/newsimages/money/2008/07/30_foreclosuresRATIO.gif
The foreclosure rate change...
http://www.ocregister.com/newsimages/money/2008/07/30_foreclosuresRATECHANGE.gif
It is getting worse even in Irvine there are zips that are going to look really ugly for foreclosures due to the increase in defaults.
greenpot168_IHB
New member
graphrix said:
I want to run a chain of title report on one property in the upcoming auction.
Could you tell me contact info of Chicago Title ?
If you or anyone know other tilte company with cheaper and better service ,
plz share me the info.
Thanks
---
By the way, I found out buyer can call Recon 800-281-8129 auto voice system
then enter 7 digit TS number to get Opening Bid Amt
Plz skip the first 2 digit out of 9 digit TS number
For example:
7 DEERWOOD EAST
TS Number: 200819899
Notice of Sale Amt: $726,518.94
Opening Bid Amt: 0
You just enter 0819899
It will tell you Opening Bid start at $472,500
freedomCM_IHB
New member
just off housingwire/CR:
so now the FBs can sit in the house they used to pay rent for, for ten months instead of five.
how much is this going to shift the reset curves/bottom?
so now the FBs can sit in the house they used to pay rent for, for ten months instead of five.
how much is this going to shift the reset curves/bottom?
lawyerliz_IHB
New member
Really, this decision is not so bad. It will give the lender a chance
to find the note. It will encourage work outs. The lenders are mostly
sitting on the inventory, not selling it anyway. This goes on long enough
and you guys won't get a chance to buy because well capitalized vultures
will take over the properties en masse. I heard about people getting
together for this purpose months ago, and I assume they are waiting for the
values to bottom out too. Obviously, hasn't happened yet.
It will keep houses from being vandalized, and ruining surrounding
neighbors.
It may slightly slow the rate of decline, but more decline is built in.
I don't know about there, but here there is a hugh amount of shadow
inventory, and stuff which just isn't selling and people who would like
to sell, but can't.
Some of those deals should include big haircuts to the mtg amount,
which is an equivalent to a decrease in price, and some will still not
be able to make the payments and will be foreclosed.
I don't know if I posted this here, but NPR had a happy-happy story about
prices dropping and happy buyers fighting for the property with multiple
contracts on houses. The example was from here in Miami and Hialeah.
The decreases were indeed very juicy.
Then at the very end they mentioned that in the previous month a number
of houses in the 900s had sold in Dade County and the amount of inventory
was over 33,000. That adds up to me to a 3 year supply, and if you include
the shadow inventory, it's probably 4 years, or heck, even 5.
miamicondosomething.com has mentioned a number of houses under 100k, which at
peak, you couldn't find in the worst crime-ridden ghetto rundown area.
Another 10% off the 30% we are already down, and some knife catchers
will get interested. Another 10% lower than that, and they won't be knife
catchers, unless we have the greatest of GDs. (With my usual caveat of not-
the-towers).
Also, another client came in; is not in foreclosure, but will be if he doesn't
do something. He bought somewhat below peak, but is presently about 20-25%
underwater. Citi will accept late payments, so long as it is at least a full
month's payments. I pointed out he could walk, but would lose his credit,
which is excellent in spite of being a couple of months behind. (Are the lenders
not reporting to the credit bureaus?). He said it's not business, he wants to
keep his apt, because he likes it and likes where it is.
Anyway, Citi sent him a notice,saying plz work with us, and the reason he
stopped payment was that he lost his job, and he's got a number of offers
so is confident he can get a new one. They will put the missed payments
at the end. They will add catch up payments to the current payment.
No offer as yet to reduce the balance or interest rate. His interest rate isn't
bad anyway. I told him about the new housing bill. I don't think Citi will
cut the mtg balance until they get a whole lot more desperate. He needs to
do something in the next few years, 'cause the loan is interest only.
to find the note. It will encourage work outs. The lenders are mostly
sitting on the inventory, not selling it anyway. This goes on long enough
and you guys won't get a chance to buy because well capitalized vultures
will take over the properties en masse. I heard about people getting
together for this purpose months ago, and I assume they are waiting for the
values to bottom out too. Obviously, hasn't happened yet.
It will keep houses from being vandalized, and ruining surrounding
neighbors.
It may slightly slow the rate of decline, but more decline is built in.
I don't know about there, but here there is a hugh amount of shadow
inventory, and stuff which just isn't selling and people who would like
to sell, but can't.
Some of those deals should include big haircuts to the mtg amount,
which is an equivalent to a decrease in price, and some will still not
be able to make the payments and will be foreclosed.
I don't know if I posted this here, but NPR had a happy-happy story about
prices dropping and happy buyers fighting for the property with multiple
contracts on houses. The example was from here in Miami and Hialeah.
The decreases were indeed very juicy.
Then at the very end they mentioned that in the previous month a number
of houses in the 900s had sold in Dade County and the amount of inventory
was over 33,000. That adds up to me to a 3 year supply, and if you include
the shadow inventory, it's probably 4 years, or heck, even 5.
miamicondosomething.com has mentioned a number of houses under 100k, which at
peak, you couldn't find in the worst crime-ridden ghetto rundown area.
Another 10% off the 30% we are already down, and some knife catchers
will get interested. Another 10% lower than that, and they won't be knife
catchers, unless we have the greatest of GDs. (With my usual caveat of not-
the-towers).
Also, another client came in; is not in foreclosure, but will be if he doesn't
do something. He bought somewhat below peak, but is presently about 20-25%
underwater. Citi will accept late payments, so long as it is at least a full
month's payments. I pointed out he could walk, but would lose his credit,
which is excellent in spite of being a couple of months behind. (Are the lenders
not reporting to the credit bureaus?). He said it's not business, he wants to
keep his apt, because he likes it and likes where it is.
Anyway, Citi sent him a notice,saying plz work with us, and the reason he
stopped payment was that he lost his job, and he's got a number of offers
so is confident he can get a new one. They will put the missed payments
at the end. They will add catch up payments to the current payment.
No offer as yet to reduce the balance or interest rate. His interest rate isn't
bad anyway. I told him about the new housing bill. I don't think Citi will
cut the mtg balance until they get a whole lot more desperate. He needs to
do something in the next few years, 'cause the loan is interest only.
lawyerliz_IHB
New member
What are the zips in Irvine?