FBI Crime Stats

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irvinehomeowner

irvinehomeowner

Well-known member
So during my routine perusal of OCReader, I come across this gem from number cruncher Lane Meyer regarding crime rates in Orange County vs. LA County.
http://www.ocreader.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=12147#p12147

Of course the title of that thread is 'Irvine Homicides' but I digress. What's funny about it is he goes on about how OCRegister spins crimes against Santa Ana vs. Irvine yet he engages in his own spin, as he quotes OCRegister's article and adds his own emphasis:
Lane quoting OCReg said:
According to FBI statistics, the national trend carried over to most of Orange County's largest cities, with Anaheim, Costa Mesa, Garden Grove and Orange seeing a double-digit drop in violent crimes.

Huntington Beach saw drop of 3 percent in violent crime, while Orange saw the biggest dip, with a 27 percent drop in the number of incidents reported.

Only Fullerton and Irvine saw an increase.

....

Santa Ana, the largest of the county's cities and the one with the highest number of violent crimes reported, saw the exact number of violent crimes in 2008 and 2009.
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I like how he bolded 'Only' and 'Irvine saw an increase'. While he should have been bolding 'Santa Ana, the largest of the county's cities and the one with the highest number of violent crimes reported'.

Anyways, Lane continues to stress numbers and goes into this little ditty about LA vs OC crime rates and Santa Ana's crime rate:
Lane said:
Since digging for statistics (actual facts vs. perceptions and preconceived notions derived from media bias) is too much for the Register and the general population: violent crime dropped 3.3% per 1000 people in OC from 2008 to 2009. And to prove my point that the Register is biased, Santa Ana's rate dropped as well. While it wasn't very significant, the rate did drop, but if you believe everything you read from the lazy ass reporters from the Register -- then you would think the crime rate is the same in SA.
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And to conclude... he provides this "data" point because another poster was saying that he would feel safer in Compton than Santa Ana:
According to the FBI stats: Santa Ana had 5.1 violent crimes per 1000 people. Compton had 15.5 violent crimes per 1000 people.

Even if Compton saw a measly 15% decrease, Santa Ana would have to have over an increase of 250% to come close that rate. If SA saw even a double digit increase in the violent crime rate, then you would see twice as much in the paper as you do now as well as SA residents clamoring about for money for the PD. So you go right ahead and live in Compton. I'll take my odds of living in SA (I don't live there, but I'm there 4-5 days a week and would love to live in Floral Park or Park Santiago) because I'm not influenced by a biased media source, or too lazy to look into the crime stats, and I have a basic fundamental understanding of statistics.
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So his contention is that Santa Ana actually decreased a little and Irvine increased and because Compton has 3 times the number of violent crimes per 1000 people that he would rather live in Santa Ana.

Did anyone notice he didn't actually quote what Irvine's crime rate was? 0.7% per 1000 people. So Santa Ana is actually over 5 times that of Irvine!! Hmmm... Floral Park or not... that's a significant number... moreso than comparing Compton to Santa Ana. And because I don't want to be labeled as "too lazy", I've included the numbers (and the link) here so you don't have to make assumptions his percentages are right:

FBI Crime Rates:http://www.fbi.gov/stats-services/crimestats

2008
Irvine  209,278  129 = 0.616% per 1000
Santa Ana  339,674  1,726 = 5.081% per 1000

2009
Irvine  215,673  153 = 0.709% per 1000
Santa Ana  339,196  1,726 = 5.086% per 1000

Now... maybe I pasted the number wrongs or pressed the wrong buttons on the calculator, but it looks like Santa Ana increased a very small amount, 0.005% which jives with the OCReg article, which actually said "saw the exact number of violent crimes in 2008 and 2009" (1726 violent crimes), NOT the exact same crime rate. So I'm not sure where Lane sees it decreasing "a little".

And yes, Irvine did increase too... by a WHOPPING .094%!!!

So who's spinning now? I appreciate the exercise in data mining... but when you show more of the data... you can see why the perception of Irvine's safety exists and that Santa Ana does have the highest number of violent crimes in OC.
 
Do you still post at OCR, IHO? I always enjoy reading the sparring matches between you and Lane.

So boiling things down: the violent crime rate in Irvine is .07 per 1000 people and Santa Ana is 5.1 per 1000? Is that correct? It would seem to me that rather than getting excited about the crime rates rising slightly, or dropping slightly, in any particular city, the important message here is the overall crime rate. So if you're comparing Irvine and Santa Ana, you're over five times more likely to be a victim of violent crime in SA than Irvine. So what difference does it make if either city's rate is going up or down in statistically insignificant ways? Unless, of course, you have an irrational vendetta against a particular city, and you feel a constant need to celebrate the fact that you are too cool to live in it.

 
OCR is in read-only mode for me... they have lots of good stuff over there... especially for OC in general.

Actually... using a calculator, Santa Ana has OVER 7 times the violent crimes that Irvine has. Like you, I just rounded it down to 5... but if you want to be Lane-math correct... it's really 7x.

And while BK likes to say that Irvine has just as much crime but it's of the white-collar variety... that makes me laugh. I'm more concerned about *violent* crime where my family may get physically injured.

I just found Lane's post a bit ironic, he said that OCReg was spinning and the math says otherwise... but after I researched the math... it seems like Lane's data had a turn in the washing machine.
 
Not enough time in the day... since I have more to counter-point over there... it eats my brain.

Plus they have zombies and that scares me.

Not sure why some of them talk about Irvine so much over there instead of coming over here... I think they fear me... and if you've seen my face... you would know why.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Not enough time in the day... since I have more to counter-point over there... it eats my brain.

Plus they have zombies and that scares me.

Not sure why some of them talk about Irvine so much over there instead of coming over here... I think they fear me... and if you've seen my face... you would know why.
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Ah, I see.

I am very curious about this face of yours that you always refer to as so scary. You're one of the few old-school IHB'ers whose face I haven't seen.
 
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