Examples of significant savings?
- Thread starter irvinehomeowner
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irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Kenkoko said:
Okay, finally had time to look at these listings.
I think this is a bit misleading. There is a location premium you are not mentioning here. The Rockcress property is closer to Sand Canyon whereas the other 2 listings are interior locations.
Also, while this may be subjective, both Hanging Garden and Scented Violet have nicer upgrades based on the pictures (the backyard of Hanging Garden is best).
I tried to look at sold prices on other listings in this area but I'm not very familiar with Cypress Village Marigold tracts so not sure where others just like this Plan 3 are located to get a bigger sample size.
So I'm more familiar with Quail Hill so I would like to see what you are talking about here because it may be the same type of differences that are reflective of location/upgrades rather than apple-to-apples discounts.
And as I've said in other threads, 5-10% is not that significant if you are looking at a 5-10 year stay, are shopping the $1m+ range and are financing. On one of our homes we saved 10% sacrificing location and looking back, it wasn't worth it. We actually might still be in that area today if we picked a more expensive home with a better location.
Mety said:mads said:Mety said:
Is it really urban living though?
Well, depends how you look at it.
Having Novel Park homes definitely will sound buffer for other GP homes.
On a positive notes, these NP are kind of like CPW homes but with IUSD so kids can enjoy Irvine schools.
Don?t discount it too much. If they play their cards right, the kid might be top of their class for the school assigned to cpw.
IHO,
Having actually toured all 3 properties personally, I would agree locations were a factor and the backyard of Hanging Garden was the best of those 3. But the price difference was a whopping 13%. The backyard difference was so minimal in terms of cost to fix it up ( no more than a few thousand bucks)
The location difference to us, in terms of price, would be no more than a couple percentage as the home was not right on Sand Canyon just closed to.
You called my post misleading but I never claimed the homes were exactly the same. I only said they were the same model, same floor plan, and same SQFT. I think you blaming the 13% price difference on location/backyard (and doing so by looking at a few online photos) instead of how much the market had changed is misleading.
To your 2nd point " if you are looking at a 5-10 year stay...."
You can make almost anything bend in your favor if you tweak the premise of the discussion enough. I can easily say if you are looking at a 3-5 year stay and the 10% price difference will feel gigantic.
This would not have been the first time I disagree with you on using 5-10 year as a default. Simply because of the fact that newest studies have shown people changed homes every 5 years. Also personally, I never had a primary home for more than 4 years (before selling or turning it into a rental)
I mentioned this in my posts when we had similar discussions. People are moving more and more often. The home price difference plus the 6% transaction cost will become bigger and bigger factors. The old thinking of focusing on 20/30 years long term simply does not apply to how people live today.
Having actually toured all 3 properties personally, I would agree locations were a factor and the backyard of Hanging Garden was the best of those 3. But the price difference was a whopping 13%. The backyard difference was so minimal in terms of cost to fix it up ( no more than a few thousand bucks)
The location difference to us, in terms of price, would be no more than a couple percentage as the home was not right on Sand Canyon just closed to.
You called my post misleading but I never claimed the homes were exactly the same. I only said they were the same model, same floor plan, and same SQFT. I think you blaming the 13% price difference on location/backyard (and doing so by looking at a few online photos) instead of how much the market had changed is misleading.
To your 2nd point " if you are looking at a 5-10 year stay...."
You can make almost anything bend in your favor if you tweak the premise of the discussion enough. I can easily say if you are looking at a 3-5 year stay and the 10% price difference will feel gigantic.
This would not have been the first time I disagree with you on using 5-10 year as a default. Simply because of the fact that newest studies have shown people changed homes every 5 years. Also personally, I never had a primary home for more than 4 years (before selling or turning it into a rental)
I mentioned this in my posts when we had similar discussions. People are moving more and more often. The home price difference plus the 6% transaction cost will become bigger and bigger factors. The old thinking of focusing on 20/30 years long term simply does not apply to how people live today.
eyephone said:Mety said:mads said:Mety said:
Is it really urban living though?
Well, depends how you look at it.
Having Novel Park homes definitely will sound buffer for other GP homes.
On a positive notes, these NP are kind of like CPW homes but with IUSD so kids can enjoy Irvine schools.
Don?t discount it too much. If they play their cards right, the kid might be top of their class for the school assigned to cpw.
I actually like some of CPW homes.
I would have bought one if they didn't have ridiculous HOAs.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Kenkoko said:
I actually said a "bit" misleading. Just like you called out my "amazing" prices in Woodbridge, I should be allowed to point out some flaws in your example.
And again, this *is* based on my premise because that was my original reasoning on whether or not you should wait (which we've discussed in other threads).
For you, that "whopping" 13% is significant to wait... for me (and again... my opinion, not everyone else's), especially after buying a house next to a busy road, that 13% is **not** worth it.
And I'm not trying to be misleading, that's why I asked for a larger sample size than just 3 homes, that's also why this thread exists. You got upset at the other poster when he posted singular examples of Woodbridge pricing and it wasn't until I showed you the data from Redfin comparing each of the neighborhoods that you saw what I was saying... I'm just asking for reciprocity.
For this price range, $1m+ (the same range as in the poll), you may find the move-up time greater than 5 years. I **also** have usually moved less than 5 years except for our last home (and the one before that would have been longer too if not for the bad location), so I think that's a push.
Again, my viewpoint is if you are planning to stay longer than 5 years, price differences may not be the top factor when buying.
You always bring up the 6% transaction cost as a loss if you have to sell, but isn't that more of a reason to stay than to move? To purchase a home that you want to stay in for over 5 years and that is in a good location?
And again, I speak from hindsight... I felt like most of you before, always trying to time a price drop so that I could save even just 5%. In the end, what mattered most if getting the right house for a price I could afford. We paid much more for our current home than we wanted to (a whopping 20% more!), but this is by far the best home we have lived in.
I hope the one you are closing on is what you were looking for.
6%??? Man, that's some old school right there.
Use Redfin and pay 1-1.5% listing fees.
It's interesting most people no matter where they live, they tend to love where they are currently at especially if you are the home owner. I haven't really seen anyone who would say,
"Man, I live in PS and I hate it here."
They all tend to say,
"I love it here cuz it's so much more chill and far away from than any other Irvine areas."
But then you move out and say,
"I used to live in PS and I hated every moment of it for it was too far from everything."
"I used to live in GP and boy those MR was killing me."
"I used to live in EW and I forgot I was in U.S."
We all love where we are now, but not so much love for the previous one. So my question is do you still think you would say it was the best home even after you move to somewhere else?
Use Redfin and pay 1-1.5% listing fees.
It's interesting most people no matter where they live, they tend to love where they are currently at especially if you are the home owner. I haven't really seen anyone who would say,
"Man, I live in PS and I hate it here."
They all tend to say,
"I love it here cuz it's so much more chill and far away from than any other Irvine areas."
But then you move out and say,
"I used to live in PS and I hated every moment of it for it was too far from everything."
"I used to live in GP and boy those MR was killing me."
"I used to live in EW and I forgot I was in U.S."
We all love where we are now, but not so much love for the previous one. So my question is do you still think you would say it was the best home even after you move to somewhere else?
IHO, I always appreciated honest discussions and will gladly admit when I?m proven wrong like you did with our discussion on Woodbridge prices.
I strongly feel the biggest part of the 13% price difference in Marigold plan 3 is due to Market condition, not location, certainly not the minimal backyard. We disagree.
I keep bringing up the 6% transaction cost because it?s something many people do not think about in a bull market. But it will hurt a lot when you must sell in a bear market. It could easily double your loss when market dips 5%.
I already mentioned this in the other thread, but we are buying an investment property ( a 1031 exchange for my parents) The consideration is obviously different than someone buying a primary home. The numbers must make sense therefore my big emphasis on price, transaction cost, and Irvine rental cap rates.
My stance on primary home buying is different than you. While I understand there are other factors in play when deciding on a primary home purchase, I do not think the investment consideration part goes out of the window. Due to high RE prices, many homebuyers in Irvine are buying their primary home as a combination of housing need and investment. Too many people I see are stretching DTI to buy homes in Irvine. This makes them less adaptable to newer economic challenges that I see are coming. We are already 10 years into this recovery / expansion. For Irvine home prices to go up and outperforme inflation significantly, we need the US economy to stay strong and Irvine to become Silicon Valley of the south. Frankly I don?t see that. I see much smaller possible upside going forward and bigger possible downside.
I strongly feel the biggest part of the 13% price difference in Marigold plan 3 is due to Market condition, not location, certainly not the minimal backyard. We disagree.
I keep bringing up the 6% transaction cost because it?s something many people do not think about in a bull market. But it will hurt a lot when you must sell in a bear market. It could easily double your loss when market dips 5%.
I already mentioned this in the other thread, but we are buying an investment property ( a 1031 exchange for my parents) The consideration is obviously different than someone buying a primary home. The numbers must make sense therefore my big emphasis on price, transaction cost, and Irvine rental cap rates.
My stance on primary home buying is different than you. While I understand there are other factors in play when deciding on a primary home purchase, I do not think the investment consideration part goes out of the window. Due to high RE prices, many homebuyers in Irvine are buying their primary home as a combination of housing need and investment. Too many people I see are stretching DTI to buy homes in Irvine. This makes them less adaptable to newer economic challenges that I see are coming. We are already 10 years into this recovery / expansion. For Irvine home prices to go up and outperforme inflation significantly, we need the US economy to stay strong and Irvine to become Silicon Valley of the south. Frankly I don?t see that. I see much smaller possible upside going forward and bigger possible downside.
Mety said:
Even if you pay just 1.5% listing fees, you still need to offer 2.5% commission for buyer agent to be competitive. That's 4% already before we consider escrow cost, closing cost, cost to get your home ready, cost to move etc etc.
You can definitely do it of less than 6% but I don't think it's crazy to use 6% to calculate the math.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
I will agree that there is some price dip due to the cyclical season, but how big? Once again, this is one or two homes, that's why I made this thread, so we can see more examples.Kenkoko said:
And even if location and upgrades were only 5% of this price difference, 8% to me is not *significant*.
Sure, but this throws away my premise that you won't sell. To be fair, you can't just discard my caveats.
I agree.
I've never said the investment part goes out the window.
But to me, at least in my experience, most real estate in Irvine appreciates over the long haul. I've said before that I've stretched with each home we bought, and each time, it's worked out, so maybe that's a gamble for most, and at today's prices, I'm not sure I would do the same thing. However, if you can afford it, and it's the home you want, small price discounts for 5-10% (the typical drop the last 4 years)... or even 15%, become less of a consideration.
Maybe I'm not as down on the economy as you are. Maybe because you think AI might have a hand in killing tons of jobs but to me I see that as an evolution to create more opportunities and a better life for everyone.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Mety said:
So, to clarify, this is the best micro house location (IE not backing a major road/freeway) I've lived in. Previous homes weren't always in the ideal location because we were more concerned about price (well, we did rent a house in nice location at one time). But, for a macro location, I would probably prefer to live in one of 3 places in Irvine: Quail Hill, Woodbridge or Turtle Rock.
But I doubt we are moving anytime soon, maybe when the kids are on their own we will downsize and retire to one of those 3 places... or just move out of Irvine altogether.
irvinehomeowner said:
My parents were thinking of downsizing, but the cost of monthly pay would actually go up when they move to a smaller house because of the inflation.
This is one of the reasons why boomers are not moving and millennials can't buy resale homes. Thus home builders make new homes with either higher MR price tag or on a toxic wasted land with tri levels.
QH, WB, TR homes prices might end up even higher than what it is today by the time you want to downsize. Do you think you would still move then?
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Mety said:
Well, if we stay in our home for at least 10 more years, I figure we should have more than half paid off (if you taken into account appreciation/inflation, the equity is even more so). That difference when we sell should be able to buy a smaller place or at least pay it down where mortgage is very minimal.
But you never know, if attached condos are $1m today, I can imagine a small 1-story 2-3br SFR in Woodbridge or Turtle Rock could be $2m in 2030 (at least even Quail Hill won't have MRs by then).
irvinehomeowner said:Mety said:
Well, if we stay in our home for at least 10 more years, I figure we should have more than half paid off (if you taken into account appreciation/inflation, the equity is even more so). That difference when we sell should be able to buy a smaller place or at least pay it down where mortgage is very minimal.
But you never know, if attached condos are $1m today, I can imagine a small 1-story 2-3br SFR in Woodbridge or Turtle Rock could be $2m in 2030 (at least even Quail Hill won't have MRs by then).
You kid, but you never know. If no slowdown occurs and only seasonal flows keep happening, $2m for attached Delano by 2030 is actually not an impossibility.
BTW, are you going to stop your kids if they say they will buy Delano?
Also WB and TR's HOAs will be around $600 for townhomes. But you said you would only buy SFH so no worries.