Examples of significant savings?

[irvinehomeowner]

Okay, so I've been trying to find an example of some closed resales on Redfin last year to compare to a closed resale today to see how much savings we are talking if you waited.

I used the criteria of SFR, 4br/3ba, 2250sft+, 1 year of closed sales and tried to find something in the same general area.
https://www.redfin.com/city/9361/CA...-baths=3,min-sqft=2.25k-sqft,include=sold-1yr

This follows along the line of what price range/product most TI members are looking for (the middle finger graph:https://www.talkirvine.com/index.php/topic,16641.0.html)and also if I were shopping last year and now, it's the stock I would be looking at.

The lowest price listings were all closed last year... starting at $799k for this one:

4br/3ba 2655sft sold 7/31/18 https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/39-Murasaki-St-92617/home/22790592

Not sure what is up with that one because it seems like $799k is a low price, it looks like it's campus housing but I'm not familiar with that area.

I think the lowest one that sold this year is in West Irvine for $880k

5br/3ba 2268sft sold 2/26/18https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/12-Proclamation-Way-92602/home/4793117

But there were 3 resales that sold lower last year:

$833k 4br/3ba 2591sft sold 9/17/18 (comments say it's a fixer upper)https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/11-Blazing-Star-92604/home/4683713

$865k 4br/3ba 2344sft sold 8/31/18 (3CWG!!)https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/13791-Stampede-Cir-92620/home/4776602

$870k 5br/3ba 2626sft sold 4/19/18 (another 3CWG!!)https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/4091-Blackfin-Ave-92620/home/4777857

This is by no means and in-depth data analysis, I just sorted by price (within the search criteria) and these were the first ones to come up. Maybe there are better savings once you get to the $1m-1.5m range.

Maybe one of you can find better examples but I think it's going to skew as a push because it seems just on first glance that prices are around the same or even slightly higher (at least for the search criteria I mentioned above).

Now I understand price lags (that was mentioned in the poll thread) but at the same time, Irvine seems to adjust up more quickly than down. Just looking at Trulia and the Irvine trend graph already shows an uptick of prices from a median of $810k in Feb to $815k in March.
https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Irvine-California/market-trends/

Are the new homes cheaper this year than last year? How is Delano doing?

 

[Kenkoko]

Why limit your search criteria that much if you are trying to find overall price decline ? 2250 sqft seems like a weird number to me too.

Pretty much everything we looked at had dropped 10% or more. I posted these in another thread but here it is again. There are exact same model same floor plan and same sqft. (Marigold plan 3 in Cypress Village)
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/60-Rockcress-92618/home/112722299

Sold for 930k in 2019.

This very same plan 3 was closing at 1.05 mil and 1.06 mil in 2018.

This one sold for 1.05 milhttps://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/74-Scented-Violet-92620/home/58557049

This one sold for 1.068 milhttps://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/55-Hanging-Gdn-92618/home/112719945

The ones we made offers in Quail Hill also dropped 10% or more. The home we are about to close is still listed above 950k asking price and we will close for just above 870k. I think you will see more and more of these lowered sales comp soon.

 

[zubs]

From this redfin graph of 92620, it looks like prices are still going up.

How accurate is the redfin graph?

 

[zubs]

I just noticed the graph above is for condos.
Here is redfins graph for houses

So it looks like a nice drop there for houses but not condos.


This coincides with what USC has been saying.  cheaper property is still hot while expensive property is a buyers market.

 

[Mety]

Oh, I thought SFH or houses would be more stable in times of enduring.

What's going on?

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Why limit your search criteria that much if you are trying to find overall price decline ? 2250 sqft seems like a weird number to me too.

Because there was a discussion about what type of houses readers of TI were looking for. So the poll (I posted the link) leaned towards $1m+ homes and the criteria for those homes are usually 4/3s. I originally was going to use 2000sft but 2250 just seemed a bit bigger because some listing agents like to fudge a 1900sft home as 2000sft. I probably should have used 2500sft.

I'm not looking for an overall price decline, I'm looking for a price decline in the homes that I would be interested in... my thread... my rules.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I just noticed the graph above is for condos.
Here is redfins graph for houses

So it looks like a nice drop there for houses but not condos.

Yes, looks like a nice drop but am I wrong or does it show the prices going back up? A slowdown is supposed to continue to be slow right?

 

[Cares]

Here's an interesting trend graph based on all MLS data. $/sqft for Irvine detached homes with 3+ bedrooms. Typically new home build data doesn't make it into the MLS so this is mostly "resale" data.

From the peak of last year detached products took about a 4% dip in $/sqft. Compare to attached homes taking about an 8% dip in $/sqft. So Mety your assumption is correct that SFH (or detached) homes are more "steady" during times like these.

 

[Cares]

Here's a graph with IHO's criteria. Based on $/sqft it still is going down or flat (slow).

 

[Kings]

The lowest price listings were all closed last year... starting at $799k for this one:

4br/3ba 2655sft sold 7/31/18 https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/39-Murasaki-St-92617/home/22790592

Not sure what is up with that one because it seems like $799k is a low price, it looks like it's campus housing but I'm not familiar with that area.

if i'm not mistaken, homes in this area are strictly for uci staff / employees and are subsidized and/or owned in some part by the school.  not entirely sure, so someone correct me if i'm wrong.

 

[Cares]

The lowest price listings were all closed last year... starting at $799k for this one:

4br/3ba 2655sft sold 7/31/18 https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/39-Murasaki-St-92617/home/22790592

Not sure what is up with that one because it seems like $799k is a low price, it looks like it's campus housing but I'm not familiar with that area.

if i'm not mistaken, homes in this area are strictly for uci staff / employees and are subsidized and/or owned in some part by the school.  not entirely sure, so someone correct me if i'm wrong.

Looks about right. Tax records show it was owned by the Regeants. And all owners after it took a loan from the UC home loan program.

 

[Mety]

So no one has any idea why SRH are suffering while condos are doing well?

BTW, I believe Delano is mostly sold out. 

 

[mads]

Probably cos condos have a lower starting price than SFRs and are available to a greater pool of buyers/ investors? Sub 800k market being more competitive

 

[Mety]

But the reason or argument people make is that SFR will endure better than condos and attached ones especially when there is slowdown/price reduction. The total opposite is happening. Does that not look unusual or suspicious to anyone? Or is it just that argument is fake news.

 

[Cares]

Yep just look at the interest list on Novel Park. According to William Lyon's Q4 call they said they had 4500 people on the list. The price point is ultra attractive with everything under $800k.

 

[zubs]

I just noticed the graph above is for condos.
Here is redfins graph for houses

So it looks like a nice drop there for houses but not condos.

Yes, looks like a nice drop but am I wrong or does it show the prices going back up? A slowdown is supposed to continue to be slow right?

The funny thing about that graph is the blue line shows sellers are holding on to their wishing price as closed prices are much lower.  This is only the beginning of the recession.  We got 4 more years of this....perhaps flat to lower.


People with property (old people) will hope for a soft landing.  Renters may want a hard landing...but then they also may lose their job.

 

[Mety]

Yep just look at the interest list on Novel Park. According to William Lyon's Q4 call they said they had 4500 people on the list. The price point is ultra attractive with everything under $800k.

Yeah, it's got the ultra attractive view of the Toll Road 133 as well. What a modern urban life.

 

[mads]

But the reason or argument people make is that SFR will endure better than condos and attached ones especially when there is slowdown/price reduction. The total opposite is happening. Does that not look unusual or suspicious to anyone? Or is it just that argument is fake news.

The # of Buyers who prefer SFRs is greater, and the # of SFRs used as primary residences is most likely higher too. Problem as pointed above is the SFR Irvine? hype train sometimes leads to unrealistic list prices and supply> demand.
The # of people who can afford cheaper older SFRs/condos is higher, and will include more investors. These will also be the first ones to be sold off in a difficult market, either by investor owners, when they don?t break even anymore/want to liquidate or simply because these are considered less desirable? people who bought these as primary residences may also be less financially resilient or are viewed as such in a recession? i live in a condo and am happy, so no offense to anyone here.
Read somewhere that another reason why homebuilders have been mostly into higher end homes (apart from higher margins) was because post-recession, only the well-off could afford to buy homes anymore.

 

[eyephone]

Yep just look at the interest list on Novel Park. According to William Lyon's Q4 call they said they had 4500 people on the list. The price point is ultra attractive with everything under $800k.

Yeah, it's got the ultra attractive view of the Toll Road 133 as well. What a modern urban life.

That toll road is like getting congested. (That?s what I hear and I have driven it) They should have built more lanes or something.

 

[Mety]

Yep just look at the interest list on Novel Park. According to William Lyon's Q4 call they said they had 4500 people on the list. The price point is ultra attractive with everything under $800k.

Yeah, it's got the ultra attractive view of the Toll Road 133 as well. What a modern urban life.

That toll road is like getting congested. (That?s what I hear and I have driven it) They should have built more lanes or something.

That may not be novel.