Economic Commentary

From the post above, I think that the news is telling us that it's going to be a long road to hell.



Could you write your interpretation of the news after each little snippet?

In terms of wallstreet it means the dow 7700 we are at today will be back to 6700 by Summer.

That's my guess.
 
<em>We're not quite as healthy as we thought we were. Oops. (WSJ)



J.P. Morgan Chase Chief Executive James Dimon said...that March was a little tougher than the first two months of the year....Bank of America...CEO Kenneth Lewis also said that March had been a tougher month for his bank. [Convenient that they dumped this on Friday afternoon, and at the close of a very good week].



Readers may recall that a few weeks ago, Dimon and Lewis---along with Citi's Vikram Pandit---said the first two months of the year had been very good:



Pandit, March 10th: ?We are profitable through the first two months of 2009 and are having our best quarter-to-date performance since the third quarter of 2007.?



Dimon, March 11th: "Jamie Dimon, the chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, said Wednesday that the bank was profitable in January and February..."



Lewis, March 12th: "We have been profitable for the first two months of the year,? Lewis told reporters after a speech in Boston today.



This was possibly the most nakedly self-serving bullshit the big bank CEOs have offered to date. ("bullshit" being a technical term of course, see Harry Frankfurt)



By February, it was understood that the big banks are all insolvent, certainly Citi and BofA. To deal with them, consensus among the cognoscenti was finally tending to a proper recapitalization: wiping out shareholders and forcing losses onto creditors via debt-for-equity swaps. Call it nationalization, call it preprivatization, call it FDIC receivership, it was clear that losses had to be recognized and by those to whom they properly belong: investors across the capital structure.



But no one really wanted to do this, not in Congress and certainly not in the Obama administration, where Timmy Geithner has made clear that his priority isn't a cleansed banking sector, it's a privately-owned one. For obvious reasons the banks don't like this solution either. So they offered up their self-serving b.s. regarding January and February, buying just enough time for Congress/Bernanke to badger FASB into changing mark-to-market rules and for Geithner to roll out his private-public partnership plan.



Now whatever losses the banks can't hide with revised accounting treatments, they can simply fob off on taxpayers via the partnerships. They got what they always wanted: A bad bank. An entity that will actually absorb losses from the asset side of the balance sheet. Shareholders and creditors don't have to worry about further writedowns, not the ones that can't be hidden anyway. Taxpayers will pick up the check!</em>







<a href="http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/03/guest-post-big-banks-pull-off-ultimate.html">Banks bait and switch</a>
 
<strong>Unprecedented plunge in personal income</strong>

Total personal income, excluding government benefits (unemployment, old age

security, disability etc), has contracted by $234 billion since peaking six months

ago (a 4.5% decline at an annual rate) ? a plunge of unprecedented proportions.

Look at the nearby chart ? income typically slows in a recession, but has never

before fallen this much over a six-month span outside of special non-recurring

situations.



<strong>Only growth in personal income coming from government</strong>

Over this six-month span, wages have deflated at a 2.7% annual rate, proprietary

income by a 6.7% annual rate, interest income by a record 12.9% annual rate,

and dividend income at a 15.6% annual rate. The only part of personal income

that is growing is the part related to transfers from the public purse. Without the

14% annualized increase in government benefits, obviously the situation would be

far worse than it is. In fact, 16.5% of personal income is now attributable to

government handouts of one form or another, which is an all-time high ? at least

back to 1959 when the data were first published (and covers the entire "Great

Society" era of the 1960s).
 
<strong>End of negative GDP prints does not mean end of recession</strong>

The final point is on timing the end of the recession. It still looks as though real

GDP is on pace for a 7.2% annual rate decline this quarter on top of the 6.3%

contraction in the fourth quarter. This represents the worst back-to-back

performance in fifty years. And, we are at -4.8% on real GDP for the second

quarter. Now, while it is true that the statistical benefit of reduced inventory

withdrawal and the fiscal stimulus will likely produce a positive GDP print in the

third quarter, we doubt that the spurt will prove sustainable; nor are we certain

that the end of the negative GDP numbers alone will be a flashpoint for the end of

the recession.



<strong>

Need to see personal income turn higher organically</strong>

What we do know is that all of the four ingredients that make up the recession call

? industrial production, real sales, employment and real personal income

excluding government transfers ? are still in deep negative terrain. In fact, what

was critical on Friday was the data-point on real personal income less

government transfers. It fell 0.8% in February, which was the third decline in a

row, not to mention the steepest slide through this recession. In a nutshell,

personal income has to start to turn higher organically AND on a sustained basis

to make the end-of-recession call.



<strong>Economy has to stand on its own without the help of Uncle Sam</strong>

In other words, the economy has to show that it has enough vitality to stand on its

own two feet without the help of Uncle Sam. As an example, if you go back to the

second quarter of 2008 when the federal government mailed out a record volume

of tax rebates that boosted real disposable income at a whopping 10.7% annual

rate, the comparable for what goes into the recession call ? real organic income

excluding government handouts ? contracted at a 2.4% annual rate.



<strong>Premature to have the view that March was the bottom in equities</strong>

So, in our forecast, what is key is that there is no visible recovery in private sector

GDP until we are into the first quarter of 2010. So, under the proviso that the

market typically bottoms four months before the recession officially ends, we stick

with the view that sometime in the fall continues to make the most sense in terms

of timing the end of the bear market. At this point, it looks premature to have the

view that March was the bottom, when it?s perfectly conceivable that the

recession officially won?t be over for another 12 months.
 
<em>"I want to be the first to admit that I have now seen the light. I now realize that for the last 230 years, Americans have been floundering in the darkness of ignorance and naivety and that what we need if we are ever going to reach our full potential and take our rightful place of power and prestige in the world, is the wisdom, brilliance and market acumen that only a new acting Board of Directors, made up of the luminaries composing the utterly brilliant Obama administration, can bring. After all, they and they alone know EXACTLY what the market is demanding of the manufacturing interests and what the average American citizen needs in order to raise a family."</em> Dan Norcini
 
Geithner?s ?Dirty Little Secret?



F. William Engdahl



Mar 30, 2009



US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner has unveiled his long-awaited plan to put the US banking system back in order. In doing so, he has refused to tell the ?dirty little secret? of the present financial crisis. By refusing to do so, he is trying to save de facto bankrupt US banks that threaten to bring the entire global system down in a new more devastating phase of wealth destruction.



The Geithner Plan, his so-called Public-Private Partnership Investment Program or PPPIP, as we have noted previously (Obamas Rettungsplan f?r die Banken: keine L?sung, sondern legaler Diebstahl), is designed not to restore a healthy lending system which would funnel credit to business and consumers. Rather it is yet another intricate scheme to pour even more hundreds of billions directly to the leading banks and Wall Street firms responsible for the current mess in world credit markets without demanding they change their business model. Yet, one might say, won?t this eventually help the problem by getting the banks back to health?



Not the way the Obama Administration is proceeding. In defending his plan on US TV recently, Geithner, a prot?g? of Henry Kissinger who previously was President of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, argued that his intent was ?not to sustain weak banks at the expense of strong.? Yet this is precisely what the PPPIP does. The weak banks are the five largest banks in the system.



The ?dirty little secret? which Geithner is going to great degrees to obscure from the public is very simple. There are only at most perhaps five US banks which are the source of the toxic poison that is causing such dislocation in the world financial system. What Geithner is desperately trying to protect is that reality. The heart of the present problem and the reason ordinary loan losses as in prior bank crises are not the problem, is a variety of exotic financial derivatives, most especially so-called Credit Default Swaps.



In 2000 the Clinton Administration then-Treasury Secretary was a man named Larry Summers. Summers had just been promoted from No. 2 under Wall Street Goldman Sachs banker Robert Rubin to be No. 1 when Rubin left Washington to take up the post of Vice Chairman of Citigroup. As I describe in detail in my new book, Power of Money: The Rise and Fall of the American Century, to be released this summer, Summers convinced President Bill Clinton to sign several Republican bills into law which opened the floodgates for banks to abuse their powers. The fact that the Wall Street big banks spent some $5 billion in lobbying for these changes after 1998 was likely not lost on Clinton.



One significant law was the repeal of the 1933 Depression-era Glass-Steagall Act that prohibited mergers of commercial banks, insurance companies and brokerage firms like Merrill Lynch or Goldman Sachs. A second law backed by Treasury Secretary Summers in 2000 was an obscure but deadly important Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000. That law prevented the responsible US Government regulatory agency, Commodity Futures Trading Corporation (CFTC), from having any oversight over the trading of financial derivatives. The new CFMA law stipulated that so-called Over-the-Counter (OTC) derivatives like Credit Default Swaps, such as those involved in the AIG insurance disaster, (which investor Warren Buffett once called ?weapons of mass financial destruction?), be free from Government regulation.



At the time Summers was busy opening the floodgates of financial abuse for the Wall Street Money Trust, his assistant was none other than Tim Geithner, the man who today is US Treasury Secretary. Today, Geithner?s old boss, Larry Summers, is President Obama?s chief economic adviser, as head of the White House Economic Council. To have Geithner and Summers responsible for cleaning up the financial mess is tantamount to putting the proverbial fox in to guard the henhouse.



The ?Dirty Little Secret?



What Geithner does not want the public to understand, his ?dirty little secret? is that the repeal of Glass-Steagall and the passage of the Commodity Futures Modernization Act in 2000 allowed the creation of a tiny handful of banks that would virtually monopolize key parts of the global ?off-balance sheet? or Over-The-Counter derivatives issuance.



Today five US banks according to data in the just-released Federal Office of Comptroller of the Currency?s Quarterly Report on Bank Trading and Derivatives Activity, hold 96% of all US bank derivatives positions in terms of nominal values, and an eye-popping 81% of the total net credit risk exposure in event of default.



The five are, in declining order of importance: JPMorgan Chase which holds a staggering $88 trillion in derivatives (?66 trillion!). Morgan Chase is followed by Bank of America with $38 trillion in derivatives, and Citibank with $32 trillion. Number four in the derivatives sweepstakes is Goldman Sachs with a ?mere? $30 trillion in derivatives. Number five, the merged Wells Fargo-Wachovia Bank, drops dramatically in size to $5 trillion. Number six, Britain?s HSBC Bank USA has $3.7 trillion.



After that the size of US bank exposure to these explosive off-balance-sheet unregulated derivative obligations falls off dramatically. Just to underscore the magnitude, trillion is written 1,000,000,000,000. Continuing to pour taxpayer money into these five banks without changing their operating system, is tantamount to treating an alcoholic with unlimited free booze.



The Government bailouts of AIG to over $180 billion to date has primarily gone to pay off AIG?s Credit Default Swap obligations to counterparty gamblers Goldman Sachs, Citibank, JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, the banks who believe they are ?too big to fail.? In effect, these five institutions today believe they are so large that they can dictate the policy of the Federal Government. Some have called it a bankers? coup d?etat. It definitely is not healthy.



This is Geithner?s and Wall Street?s Dirty Little Secret that they desperately try to hide because it would focus voter attention on real solutions. The Federal Government has long had laws in place to deal with insolvent banks. The FDIC places the bank into receivership, its assets and liabilities are sorted out by independent audit. The irresponsible management is purged, stockholders lose and the purged bank is eventually split into smaller units and when healthy, sold to the public. The power of the five mega banks to blackmail the entire nation would thereby be cut down to size. Ooohh. Uh Huh?



This is what Wall Street and Geithner are frantically trying to prevent. The problem is concentrated in these five large banks. The financial cancer must be isolated and contained by Federal agency in order for the host, the real economy, to return to healthy function.



This is what must be put into bankruptcy receivership, or nationalization. Every hour the Obama Administration delays that, and refuses to demand full independent government audit of the true solvency or insolvency of these five or so banks, inevitably costs to the US and to the world economy will snowball as derivatives losses explode. That is pre-programmed as worsening economic recession mean corporate bankruptcies are rising, home mortgage defaults are exploding, unemployment is shooting up. This is a situation that is deliberately being allowed to run out of (responsible Government) control by Treasury Secretary Geithner, Summers and ultimately the President, whether or not he has taken the time to grasp what is at stake.



Once the five problem banks have been put into isolation by the FDIC and the Treasury, the Administration must introduce legislation to immediately repeal the Larry Summers bank deregulation including restore Glass-Steagall and repeal the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000 that allowed the present criminal abuse of the banking trust. Then serious financial reform can begin to be discussed, starting with steps to ?federalize? the Federal Reserve and take the power of money out of the hands of private bankers such as JP Morgan Chase, Citibank or Goldman Sachs.
 
<em>This one is even too far fetched for Ripley's "Believe It Or Not". Last month, Bloomberg put the total cost of the many US bailouts so far at $US 9.7 TRILLION. That's enough to hand each US household a check for around $US 92,000, or to pay off 90 percent of home mortgages in the country! Since then, the tally of US bailouts has climbed to $US 11.9 TRILLION! This is complete fiscal and monetary madness.</em> - Bill Buckler











So, you still think this is a "subprime" problem, or even a mortgage problem. Mortgages were only the latest debt bubble to be inflated and the first to deflate. This is a debt problem, or an insolvency problem. Think about it. You can not spend or borrow your way out of a debt problem. And neither can the economy, the Federal Reserve, or the government. There is no magic. The US economy will have to produce and save it's way out of this debt problem, the same as any other entity. And it will be painful. An no amount of bailing out insolvent institutions will help, and in reality will only prolong the agony.







Again, there is no magic. There is no monetary sleight of hand that the Fed can pull. All they can do is take money, (productivity), and reallocate it in a less efficient manner. There is no magic. There is only government waste.
 
<em>"The problem with Socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money."</em>



- Margaret Thatcher
 
What's the Difference between Maddoff and U.S. Social Security?

by Paul Kasriel

















Coercion. Both depend, or in the case of Maddoff, depended, on being able to get new contributors into the scheme in order to pay off the previous contributors. The Social Security Administration has the power of the law to force new contributors into its scheme. Maddoff did not have the power of the law to force new contributors into his scheme, therefore, he has been accused of breaking the law. Just another example of it's good to be the king.
 
CDOs Becoming ?Unmanageable? as Trading Costs Surge, Fitch Says





By Neil Unmack









April 1 (Bloomberg) -- Managers of collateralized debt obligations are struggling to operate the funds because the cost of trading the underlying contracts has soared, according to a report by Fitch Ratings.



Some CDOs that package credit-default swaps are now ?virtually unmanageable? because prices for the contracts have risen so high, Fitch said in the report today. Managers select contracts included in so-called synthetic CDOs, and seek to protect bondholders by trading out of companies that may fail.



Banks started closing down or scaling back units that bought and sold CDOs last year, Fitch said. That?s increased the spread between bid and offer prices for credit-default swaps that banks left in the market can demand.



?Those desks that remain in the correlation trading business have seen their allocated capital and risk appetite dramatically reduced, resulting in larger bid/ask spreads,? analysts Manuel Arrive and Lars Jebberg wrote in the report. The lack of market ?liquidity? has become ?a major hindrance? for managers of CDOs, they wrote.



The cost of credit-default swaps on the benchmark Markit iTraxx Europe index of investment-grade bonds has risen to almost 180 basis points from about 20 in 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That means it costs 180,000 euros ($239,000) a year to protect 10 million euros of debt from default for five years compared with 20,000 euros before the credit crisis.



The contracts used to speculate on corporate creditworthiness and a rise indicates a deterioration in credit quality. CDOs pool bonds, loans or credit-default swaps, channeling their income to investors in layers of differing risk.
 
<em>"You cannot legislate the poor into freedom by legislating the wealthy out of freedom. What one person receives without working for, another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that it does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them, then the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for. This my dear friend spells the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it."</em>



- Dr. Adrian Rogers, 1931 to 2005
 
[quote author="SoCal78" date=1238636058]<em>"You cannot legislate the poor into freedom by legislating the wealthy out of freedom. What one person receives without working for, another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that it does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them, then the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for. This my dear friend spells the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it."</em>



- Dr. Adrian Rogers, 1931 to 2005</blockquote>


I do not know if this is true, but I read that with Obama's new tax plan, over one half the voter elegible population will be paying zero or less than zero in income taxes. Think about that for awhile.
 
The <a href="http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/03/occ-4th-quarter-derivatives-report.html">Real Reason</a> Bernanke is buying the long bond.
 
<strong>More on the new frugality</strong>

For more on the new frugality, take a look at page A7 of today?s Investor?s

Business Daily, ?In Hard Times, Penny-Pinching Shoppers Turn to Discounter?. In

these tough economic times, shoppers are turning to discounters like Family

Dollar, to help cushion the blow.



<strong>The high-end real estate market is crashing down</strong>

Take a look at page A4 of today?s Wall Street Journal, ?Manhattan Real-Estate

Market Skids as Sales Slump?. Inventory is up nearly 30% year-over-year, sales

of units in new buildings were down nearly 70% in the first quarters, and closings

are down over 50% against year-ago levels.



<strong>Look at the default rate data</strong>

Okay ? please, tell us one more time why we should be turning more positive? Is

anyone out there watching the default rate data? Is it well known that the share

of FHA mortgages that are ?seriously delinquent? at the end of February was

7.46%, up from 6.16% a year ago. So the housing and mortgage market is

somehow improving? And the FHA-insured market now is taking some big

market share ? this is backed by the taxpayer ? and in 4Q represented more than

a 30% share of originations compared with just 2% in all of 2006. And Fannie just

reported that 2.77% of single-family loans held in its $785 bln mortgage portfolio

as of January are in default, an increase of 35 basis points in one month ? the

largest increase on record and double the default rate of a year ago.
 
Marc Faber, Gloom, Boom & Doom Report







Even in the 19th century, under the gold standard, from time-to-time investment manias and bubbles developed in railroads and in canals and in real estate, just to name a few. Under a fixed monetary, or gold, standard, where the quantity of money cannot be increased indefinitely, there is a natural limit to the scale of the crisis. Usually when there's a boom in one sector of the economy, you have some kind of deflation somewhere else; that was also the case in the 1970s. We had a boom in commodities, but bond prices collapsed.



What Mr. Greenspan and Mr. Bernanke have achieved is historically quite unique. They have managed to create a bubble in everything, everywhere in the world: in real estate, equities, commodities, art, worthless collectibles; even bond prices continued to rise as interest rates fell due to loose monetary policy. Since 2007 and 2008, everything has collapsed. But government bond prices continue to rise, and went ballistic between November 2008 and December 2008, when 10- and 30-year Treasury yields collapsed. So my view would be that this was the last bubble they managed to inflate. From here on, the government bond market will fall. In other worlds, the trend will be for interest rates to actually go up.
 
<strong>Continuing claims have doubled in the past year</strong>

Over the past four weeks, continuing claims have surged by a record 654k ? and

have doubled in the past year ? to a record 5.728 million. That is incredible. At

the end of February, the four-week increase was 498k. So if we printed a

nonfarm number of -651k in February, what do you think we will get today? Then

again, the S&P 500 has managed to rally on each of the last four employment

reports even thought the best one was -597k and the cumulative decline was 2.6

million! And here we were na?ve enough to think that it was the bond market that

loved bad economic news (indeed, the Treasury market not only has failed to rally

on the days of the last four extremely weak payroll data releases, but yields on

the session absolutely surged each time ? by an average of 8 basis points).



<strong>Depression not over for everyone</strong>

Also note that consumer bankruptcy filings in March surged 23.5% on a monthly

sequential basis to 121,413. Cramer said on CNBC yesterday evening that the

depression was over. Well, obviously not for everyone.



<strong>Commercial real estate in severe stress</strong>

The US office vacancy rate rose to a four-year high of 15.2% in 1Q from 14.5% in

the fourth quarter and 12.8% a year ago (Reis data). Effective rents have deflated

3 .2% YoY.
 
<strong>So what has bottomed exactly?</strong>

Not employment. Not organic real personal income. Not industrial production. Not

shipments or order backlogs. Not home prices. Maybe housing starts ? but

February was the third lowest number on record (583k) so can we really say for

sure? The NAHB index (9), but again, it is still at the third lowest level on record.

Besides, this is a diffusion index ? it ain?t going negative. Home sales? Well,

again, at 337k in February they ticked up ? but to their second lowest level ever.

Is that a definitive bottom? Consumer confidence ? yet again, at 26 last month, it

was the second lowest on record. The ISM has certainly carved out a low ? we do

not doubt that. Again, it is a diffusion index, so at 36.3, please ? it is saying that

the contraction in industrial activity is not accelerating ? but it is ongoing. And

take note that the lowest we got in the tech wreck ? the month after 9-11, in fact ?

was 40.8. And the stock market didn?t bottom for another year. So to think a 36.3

print on ISM signals anything but continued recession is pie-in-the-sky, in our

view. Embedded in the survey result, as an aside, was the fact that for the

second month in a row, not one industry ? nada ? posted any growth at all in

March. And in the special question, we learnt that barely over 30% of

respondents believed that the fiscal stimulus was going to benefit their company.
 
<strong>Cumulative job loss hits over 5 million</strong>

The best that can be said about today?s nonfarm payroll report was that the 663k

decline did not exceed market expectations, which centered around such a

headline figure (though the Household Survey showed a huge 861,000 loss).

This now brings the cumulative decline from the late 2007 peak to 5.1 million.

About two-thirds of that carnage has occurred in just the past five months alone.



<strong>Widespread job declines</strong>

The declines were so widespread that the only large sector now adding to jobs is

health care. Even education-related services are now shedding workers. The

employment diffusion index has been hovering near 20% consistently now since

last December, which is telling you that for every business adding to their payroll,

five are cutting. That ratio is closer to 7 to 1 in the manufacturing industry.



<strong>Labor market is still in free fall, pure and simple</strong>

As bad as the headline was, the decay beneath the surface was simply appalling.

There may be a few indications of stability in some of the data, and many

investors seem to have bought into this, but these indications are hardly

universal. The labor market is still in free fall, pure and simple, and it is a

coincident indicator, not a lagging indicator.



<strong>Shifts taking place that seem secular in nature</strong>

There are shifts taking place that seem secular in nature that appear to be highly

deflationary. For example, the economy lost 1.2 million full-time jobs in March.

During this recession, the number of full-time positions that have been cut has

totaled 8.2 million, which is by far a record and about three times what is ?normal?

in a garden-variety economic downturn. Now, not all of these folks have been

laid off ? some have been pushed into part-time where employment has actually

risen 2.3 million since the recession began ? with a 373k gain in March. We are

becoming a nation of part-timers. As a share of the workforce, part-timers have

risen to a 15-year high of just over 9% and now just 30 basis points away from

making a new all-time high.
 
Back
Top