East Bluff and Newport Heights/Cliff Haven Question

G

garrison_IHB

New member
Hi folks,



I sold my house in Irvine a few months ago and am in research mode now for the next move. I'm really interested in the Newport Beach area, mostly for the location, as I'd prefer to be closer to the harbor/beach; the departure from the plan 1-4 stucco-box architecture has huge appeal too. School isn't as much of an issue as my daughter attends a private school (and that's why Irvine is lower on the list); not having to pay Mello Roos is an added bonus.



Recently I've been driving around the East Bluff area as well as the Cliff Haven and Newport Heights neighborhoods. They all rank high on my list for the timeless feel and charm of neighborhoods from a bygone era. It's hard to really articulate... but they just remind me so much of my time spent living in Coronado.



Obviously there is a huge price premium for the area (always has been and always will). The question I have is how much of a price premium? To all of you financial scholars out there: what's your best guess as to how much of a price contraction we're looking at for the beach areas? From my admittedly sophomoric approach, it seems as though the average list price is still hovering at 2006-7 levels while the average closed price is around the 2005 level. If it's going to crash all the way back to 1999-2000 levels, it's got a huge way to go (more so than Irvine, it seems). With the Fed recently stating that they're going to keep rates "exceptionally low" for an "extended" period, how does that portend to the future and where/when you see prices drastically reducing? Would any of you mind sharing a foreclosure radar map of these areas?



I have a budget of 1.3m but would ultimately like to spend no more than 950K (I'd like to be able to budget it while remaining on one income). There's only 3 of us in the family, so I'm not looking at anything larger than 2500 sq/ft. Would houses that I see languishing on the market at 1.6m realistically drop down to my price point in a few years?



Thanks for your thoughts and insight...
 
I believe that the 1.6M house will drop below $1M within a few years. maybe within a year if the gov't doesn't intervene in the market further.
 
You should be aware, though, that the restrictions on airplane traffic at John Wayne expire in 2012. That whole area is directly underneath the approach/departure corridor.
 
[quote author="garrison" date=1248220240]Hi folks,



I sold my house in Irvine a few months ago and am in research mode now for the next move. I'm really interested in the Newport Beach area, mostly for the location, as I'd prefer to be closer to the harbor/beach; the departure from the plan 1-4 stucco-box architecture has huge appeal too. School isn't as much of an issue as my daughter attends a private school (and that's why Irvine is lower on the list); not having to pay Mello Roos is an added bonus.



Recently I've been driving around the East Bluff area as well as the Cliff Haven and Newport Heights neighborhoods. They all rank high on my list for the timeless feel and charm of neighborhoods from a bygone era. It's hard to really articulate... but they just remind me so much of my time spent living in Coronado.



Obviously there is a huge price premium for the area (always has been and always will). The question I have is how much of a price premium? To all of you financial scholars out there: what's your best guess as to how much of a price contraction we're looking at for the beach areas? From my admittedly sophomoric approach, it seems as though the average list price is still hovering at 2006-7 levels while the average closed price is around the 2005 level. If it's going to crash all the way back to 1999-2000 levels, it's got a huge way to go (more so than Irvine, it seems). With the Fed recently stating that they're going to keep rates "exceptionally low" for an "extended" period, how does that portend to the future and where/when you see prices drastically reducing? Would any of you mind sharing a foreclosure radar map of these areas?



I have a budget of 1.3m but would ultimately like to spend no more than 950K (I'd like to be able to budget it while remaining on one income). There's only 3 of us in the family, so I'm not looking at anything larger than 2500 sq/ft. Would houses that I see languishing on the market at 1.6m realistically drop down to my price point in a few years?



Thanks for your thoughts and insight...</blockquote>
Have you thought about renting something in the areas that you've highlighted? Might be a good low risk preview of what life maybe he like living over there. Tough to say know low or how long prices may decline in that area, but I'm sure renting something for a year or two in that area might be the best bet at this point for you guys.
 
[quote author="jmatthew" date=1248235225]You should be aware, though, that the restrictions on airplane traffic at John Wayne expire in 2012. That whole area is directly underneath the approach/departure corridor.</blockquote>


I hadn't heard this! Do you really think that the current restirctions and "noise abatement" takeoffs will end in 2012? I can't see how Newport Beach could allow more noise and traffic over these high end areas, which already have a lot of nosie and potential pollution probelms from falling un-burned fuel, etc......
 
[quote author="jmatthew" date=1248235225]You should be aware, though, that the restrictions on airplane traffic at John Wayne expire in 2012. That whole area is directly underneath the approach/departure corridor.</blockquote>


<blockquote>East Bluff area as well as the Cliff Haven and Newport Heights neighborhoods</blockquote>




none of those neighborhoods are really "under" the flight path.



it it mostly the east side of CM (above about ~23rd) and the West bluffs area of NPB that are noisy, in my experience.



Once you get below 19th, into the cliff haven or NH areas, there is really no noise.
 
My wife and I have been looking around Newport Harbor High School for the last few months. It used to seem untouchable at anything under $900K ($300/sq ft), but there have been a few short sale homes on redfin. Like many short sales, the few properties were all bought in the last 6 years.



Currently, we've expanded our search to Santa Ana Heights, just south of the 55 fwy. There's a bunch of REO homes on redfin and in the $500K ($250/sq ft) range. It's just a matter of watching the market as our lease expires in October of this year. We're convinced that there's no rush to buy and that we're not going to buy our dream home...just a nice first home.



While driving through the neighborhood after a lazy Saturday breakfast, we stumbled upon four homes by a boutique developer. The homes were huge, with big lots, had lots of usable space, and seemed to have a terrific design/build quality.



http://www.redfin.com/CA/Costa-Mesa/227-Monte-Vista-Ave-92627/home/3564490



However, it seems like a bad idea to buy the most expensive home in the neighborhood. Secondly, there are some pretty comparable homes closer to the beach.



http://www.redfin.com/CA/Costa-Mesa/390-La-Perle-Ln-92627/home/4591399
 
[quote author="Chuck" date=1248237490][quote author="jmatthew" date=1248235225]You should be aware, though, that the restrictions on airplane traffic at John Wayne expire in 2012. That whole area is directly underneath the approach/departure corridor.</blockquote>


I hadn't heard this! Do you really think that the current restirctions and "noise abatement" takeoffs will end in 2012? I can't see how Newport Beach could allow more noise and traffic over these high end areas, which already have a lot of nosie and potential pollution probelms from falling un-burned fuel, etc......</blockquote>


It's out of the hands of Newport Beach. JWA is run by the county. That's why Newport Beach fought so hard for an airport at the old El Toro base. They could have renegotiated to extend the restrictions. Now the demand for air traffic in Orange County is too much, and the only place for it to go is John Wayne. They've already begun construction on an expanded terminal, and there are plans to lengthen the runways. The noise abatement take-offs will end in 2012, as will the curfew. I guess when they negotiated the current agreement 2012 seemed like a long way off. At the Long Beach Airport, the restrictions are forever. Someone's attorney fell asleep at the wheel.



In any event, after 2012, they can do anything they want--I wouldn't buy on that side of Newport at all until I see where the new flight paths are, how early/late the takeoffs and landings are, etc.
 
[quote author="kwong7" date=1248240763]http://www.redfin.com/CA/Costa-Mesa/227-Monte-Vista-Ave-92627/home/3564490</blockquote>: )

the listing agent likes to call it "Newport Heights". Both of these are over $350/SF
 
[quote author="jmatthew" date=1248324957][quote author="Chuck" date=1248237490][quote author="jmatthew" date=1248235225]You should be aware, though, that the restrictions on airplane traffic at John Wayne expire in 2012. That whole area is directly underneath the approach/departure corridor.</blockquote>


I hadn't heard this! Do you really think that the current restirctions and "noise abatement" takeoffs will end in 2012? I can't see how Newport Beach could allow more noise and traffic over these high end areas, which already have a lot of nosie and potential pollution probelms from falling un-burned fuel, etc......</blockquote>


It's out of the hands of Newport Beach. JWA is run by the county. That's why Newport Beach fought so hard for an airport at the old El Toro base. They could have renegotiated to extend the restrictions. Now the demand for air traffic in Orange County is too much, and the only place for it to go is John Wayne. They've already begun construction on an expanded terminal, and there are plans to lengthen the runways. The noise abatement take-offs will end in 2012, as will the curfew. I guess when they negotiated the current agreement 2012 seemed like a long way off. At the Long Beach Airport, the restrictions are forever. Someone's attorney fell asleep at the wheel.



In any event, after 2012, they can do anything they want--I wouldn't buy on that side of Newport at all until I see where the new flight paths are, how early/late the takeoffs and landings are, etc.</blockquote>


Since I travel a lot I'm selfishly excited that after 2012 there may be a chance I won't get re-directed to LAX the next time my flight home gets delayed past 11 pm....but I'd be going crazy if I lived in Dover Shores under the flight path. I'm really surprised that I hadn't heard anything about this before, so thanks for the info......
 
Hmm, I'm looking to buy in hte Eastside CM area too, thanks for the discussion. I also don't find planes or trains that bad though, sometimes they're just another soothing sound! Almost bought a house right next to the train...
 
Regarding the planes...we have close friends who live just off Jamboree near Balboa Island. When we visit we often stay about a week. For the first few days the noise of the planes taking off wakes me up at 7:00am. For about 45 minutes it seems like there are non-stop planes taking off and flying directly over head. I don't know if we get used to it as the day wears on or if the flights get more spread out so they're less noticeable. Of course after a few days we get used to the early morning departures and sleep through it.



So the noise you get used to. But the pollution is what would bother me most. Within a week our car is always covered in a fine black dust. The neighbors all seem to have car washers who arrive weekly in the early morning hours to wash their Jaguars and Mercedes' but what does breathing that stuff in daily do to their lungs? That's what I can't figure out.
 
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