% Drop From Peak

Gohabsgo_IHB

Gohabsgo_IHB

New member
Following a <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/orangetip-el-camino-real-irvine/">post </a> by IR. I compared the % drop from peak fro LA and San Diego in the 90s and the current bust.



X-axis is % drop from peak

Y-axis is number of months since peak



Note: The lines become flat once we reach the bottom (May 2009 for current bust).



It clearly shows two things:

1-We are at best half way there in term of duration

2-It will take quite of bit of work to start bending the curve, let alone turn it positive.



Let me know if you would like to see similar type of charts, it's not very hard to do.



Is there a way to post the chart other than copying it as attachment?
 
[quote author="Roo" date=1250300140]

Is there a way to post the chart other than copying it as attachment?</blockquote>
If you don't have access to image hosting, go to <a href="http://www.tinypic.com">www.tinypic.com</a> and post the img reference here (the site will give you the code to post).



EDIT: I did it for you:

<img src="http://i30.tinypic.com/30w07jm.png" alt="" />
 
Roo, great thread!. I also have some interesting charts that i had cut out and pasted on my sketch book. I agree that we are a little past half way to the bottom. There is way too much optimism in Irvine Real Estate right now. Some of these bozos are trying to sell their homes more than what they paid for in 2006. Just wait... It will be a much different picture by 4th quarter this year.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1250301424]Roo, great thread!. I also have some interesting charts that i had cut out and pasted on my sketch book. I agree that we are a little past half way to the bottom. There is way too much optimism in Irvine Real Estate right now. Some of these bozos are trying to sell their homes more than what they paid for in 2006. Just wait... It will be a much different picture by 4th quarter this year.</blockquote>


4th quarter migth be different, but my point is really to wait for Q1 2012. From there, there shouldn't be much more downside risk...
 
This one assumes the recession is almost over (it isn't) and the recovery will mirror others (it won't) unemployment will be over 10% into 2012



<img src="http://www.yourtanzone.com/forecast.jpg" alt="" />
 
Roo, nice, but you should re-frame the data showing the magnitude of the previous peak that the decline is from.



For instance, the 87 to '90 peak rise was ~25% in SD, followed by the above 15% loss, while LA was ~60% increase, 25% loss.



the current bubble was 300% to 400% for both places.



that gives a better idea of what decline is necessary to get back to "normal"





(put the sheets on for you)
<fieldset class="gc-fieldset">
<legend> Attached files </legend> <a href="http://www.talkirvine.com/converted_files/images/forum_attachments/402_iemI6xKgVaci9Nrfdob3.xls" target="_blank" class="gc-files">cs_tieredprices_small.xls</a> <span class="gc-filesize">(233 B)</span> </fieldset>
 
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