Doing alot of stock selling lately, anybody else?

I

icey

Active member
I think we still have more room to run, but I've been selling alot this year, wondering if anyone else is in the same boat. I am a value investor and there isn't much value left out there.

Still very active selling options but I'm just not seeing any bargains on the long side. Things are fairly valued but not overvalued (except for alot of consumer staples), you only see bargains in sectors like insurance.

Building up a big cash pile, so not a bad problem to have for some dry powder but still, while we all keep moving up, I am noticing HUGE jumps in names on a daily basis, seems like all the money that left Apple is pumping into momo "stocks of the day/week," and especially beneficial for short term traders.

Will be interesting to see if this QE tapering talk picks back up. That to me is the order from Chairmen Ben for last call - literally.
 
I'm not touching any stocks other than the VXX ETF.  Until further notice, I will keep to my VIX/VXX trading strategies....been netting five figure gains the past few months.  It's just rinse and repeat for me until the FED takes the punchbowl away.  Obviously the good times will end so hopefully before that I'll have enough squirreled away that I'll be able to absorb some decent sized losses. 
 
Thanks Trojan ! I've done a couple of puts and calls with it, did well on the call side but breakeven on the put side.

I need to invest more effort into it because it seems like the place to be right now with VIX trading in historically low range.
 
My 401k only allows me to invest in funds, and it has been about 95% in near-cash for a good while now (too long, in hindsight).  My personal account is invested in some stocks, more than it has been in many years, but overall my exposure to the market is still less than 10%.  I'm all in on real estate.  ;)
 
My 401k is 100% stocks....S&P index which is also the lowest fee.. Vanguard avail to me but it wasn't the lowest maintenance fee!
 
We are now two years into the new cycle which started in 2011. The commodity cycle peaks every 30 years: 1920, 1950, 1980, and I thought 2010 was the peak. I needed to see gold break down major support levels early April to feel confident of the reversal.
http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-long-term-us-dollar-cycles-2013-3- this is the cycle I've learned to love for many years. This chart is what allows me to see the big picture in the FOREX market.

Gold topped to $1943 in April, 2011 while the dollar made the low to 72. Between 2000 and 2011, the winning trade was to go short the US and buy commodities and the emerging markets.

I believe that 2011 started the new cycle where the trade has now reversed and for the next few years, investors should buy American assets and go short commodities and the stock markets of the developing world. I am long the dollar and short the euro.

In my view, the secular bull market in precious metals is now over and this is not the time to have any exposure to gold, silver or the associated miners. 

2001 - Gold priced at $280  2011 - Gold priced at $1943
2001 - Dollar index at 120  2011 - Dollar index at 72...    In the next couple of years the US Dollar will not reach 2001 high of 120, but will break above March 2009 and June 2010 level. The dollar index to reach 100 is not out of the question.
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
I'm not touching any stocks other than the VXX ETF.  Until further notice, I will keep to my VIX/VXX trading strategies....been netting five figure gains the past few months.  It's just rinse and repeat for me until the FED takes the punchbowl away.  Obviously the good times will end so hopefully before that I'll have enough squirreled away that I'll be able to absorb some decent sized losses.
Click to expand...

I dumped most of my stocks last month except for QQQ, SPY, etc.  I am waiting for the economy to collapse.

http://moneymorning.com/ob-article/schiff-us-will-win-currency-war.php

Hopefully, I will still have money afterwards to buy everything for the cheap.
 
CBI was just disclosed by Buffett and has alot of momentum behind it, natural gas infrastructure buildout play
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
I'm not touching any stocks other than the VXX ETF.  Until further notice, I will keep to my VIX/VXX trading strategies....been netting five figure gains the past few months.  It's just rinse and repeat for me until the FED takes the punchbowl away.  Obviously the good times will end so hopefully before that I'll have enough squirreled away that I'll be able to absorb some decent sized losses. 
Click to expand...

I am familiar with selling put and call index options on the SPX or NDX but have never traded volatility options.  One difference it seems is the VIX fluctuates in a range from low volatility to high volatility while also indexes fluctuate but can have unlimited upside (although we have not seen much upside until the last few months).  How does selling options on the VIX differ from selling index options or are they basically similar?  Can you give an example of trading VIX using recent VIX levels and premiums?
 
fumbling said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
I'm not touching any stocks other than the VXX ETF.  Until further notice, I will keep to my VIX/VXX trading strategies....been netting five figure gains the past few months.  It's just rinse and repeat for me until the FED takes the punchbowl away.  Obviously the good times will end so hopefully before that I'll have enough squirreled away that I'll be able to absorb some decent sized losses. 
Click to expand...

I am familiar with selling put and call index options on the SPX or NDX but have never traded volatility options.  One difference it seems is the VIX fluctuates in a range from low volatility to high volatility while also indexes fluctuate but can have unlimited upside (although we have not seen much upside until the last few months).  How does selling options on the VIX differ from selling index options or are they basically similar?  Can you give an example of trading VIX using recent VIX levels and premiums?
Click to expand...
I've never traded SPX or NDX options, but I have traded SPY, DIA, and QQQ index ETF options.  I mostly trade VIX and VXX opitons (sometimes go long or short VXX depending on if I get pushing into the position).  Trading VIX options doesn't take up as much margin as trading SPY, DIA, QQQ, or even VXX options.  Also, VIX options are considered 1256 contracts by the VIX since they are cash settled options (i.e. you can't go long or short the underlying security).  All gains and losses on 1256 contracts are 40% short term and 60% long term so 60% of the gains that I make on VIX options trading is taxed at long term capital gains rate and not my marginal tax rate.  Since the VIX tends to trade within the movement of the S&P, I do technical analysis on the S&P while also looking at the VIX charts. I mostly sell out-of-the-money VIX calls and puts but I also trade short straddles and strangles.  I only trade the front month of VIX options.  Here's a handful of my VIX trades for the May expiration (3rd Wednesday of the month) which settled at 13.17:

sold 20 $13 VIX calls @ $1.25
sold 10 $14 VIX calls @ $1.10
sold 10 $16 VIX calls @ $.65
sold 10 $13 VIX puts @ $.50
sold 10 $14 VIX puts @ $.95
sold 10 $15 VIX puts @ $1.45
sold 35 $20 VIX calls @ $.45
sold 100 $25 VIX calls @.35
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top