Current thoughts in 2011...

akim997 said:
Anyone read Bill Gross' latest March 2011 Investment Outlook?    Maybe he's trying to convince people he's right as PIMCO TR just sold out of a huge amount of treasuries last week....  but I do not disagree with anything he's stated. 

"What I would point out is that Treasury yields are perhaps 150 basis points or 1?% too low when viewed on a historical context and when compared with expected nominal GDP growth of 5%. "   

Increase of 150 bps to the 10yr treasury (benchmark for mortgage rates) would definitely have an affect on housing prices...  However, like I stated in a previous post, I'm not sure how that changes affordability...  the payment on a 300,000 loan at 5% is about $1,610; the same payment at 6.5% equates to a 255,000 loan?there?s your 15% drop...

But then again, who the heck gets a loan in Irvine anyways. 
 
sonoma said:
akim997 said:
Anyone read Bill Gross' latest March 2011 Investment Outlook?    Maybe he's trying to convince people he's right as PIMCO TR just sold out of a huge amount of treasuries last week....  but I do not disagree with anything he's stated. 

"What I would point out is that Treasury yields are perhaps 150 basis points or 1?% too low when viewed on a historical context and when compared with expected nominal GDP growth of 5%. "   

Increase of 150 bps to the 10yr treasury (benchmark for mortgage rates) would definitely have an affect on housing prices...  However, like I stated in a previous post, I'm not sure how that changes affordability...  the payment on a 300,000 loan at 5% is about $1,610; the same payment at 6.5% equates to a 255,000 loan?there?s your 15% drop...

But then again, who the heck gets a loan in Irvine anyways.

Is there any place I can get this info. How many of Irvine's transcations are 50%-100% cash, It would be interesting to know this.
I gave a 20% down although I could have given more (technically 100%), although this would have wiped out most of my retirement savings.
 
westirvine_loaner said:
Is there any place I can get this info. How many of Irvine's transcations are 50%-100% cash, It would be interesting to know this.
I gave a 20% down although I could have given more (technically 100%), although this would have wiped out most of my retirement savings.
Check this thread:
http://www.talkirvine.com/index.php?topic=80.0

And this site:
http://www.irvinerealtorsite.com

The spreadsheets for Irvine Sales History gives you the down payment data. 2010 is the only year missing that data but IR2 has started recording data for 2011 again (for January, the average is almost 50% down).
 
ha... i supposed the decrease in agency jumbo limits will have no effect in irvine....  "bring it on!" say the fcb....

putting 20% down on our $835K purchase... i almost had a coronary....  payments will be fine, cash flow ok, but heck, i'm puttin pretty much everything we have and more into this deal.  i guess it doesnt help that we are hanging onto our current house to rent out. 
 
akim997 said:
ha... i supposed the decrease in agency jumbo limits will have no effect in irvine....  "bring it on!" say the fcb....

putting 20% down on our $835K purchase... i almost had a coronary....  payments will be fine, cash flow ok, but heck, i'm puttin pretty much everything we have and more into this deal.  i guess it doesnt help that we are hanging onto our current house to rent out.

Congrats akim. Are you a Porsche fan by any chance?  ;)
 
Congrats. Did you buy in Northpark? A property I've been interested in just accepted an offer today :).

Currently looking into West Irvine, how do you like the area??
 
No disrespect to akim, we each buy for our own reasons, but $835k for any of those CalPac homes in NP or NWII still seems high to me.
 
^I couldn't bring myself to shell out 800+ either but like akim has mentioned before, I believe many other factors play into when/where to buy. Factors that may not be measured by a dollar amount.
 
yeah.  have a 997 C2S... but with the child and the new house, ill probably be looking for a more practical commuter...  a couple of track events and weekend rides along santiago canyon/portola aside, i dont really even get the opportunity to do the car any justice...  minivan here i come...
 
ucla bruin said:
Congrats. Did you buy in Northpark? A property I've been interested in just accepted an offer today :).

Currently looking into West Irvine, how do you like the area??

We are buying in Northpark Square.  Not our favorite neighboorhood, but we can't afford any of the floorplans we like in Northpark.  Our next choice was Tustin Ranch, but same thing, couldnt find a floor plan we liked. 
 
irvinehomeowner said:
No disrespect to akim, we each buy for our own reasons, but $835k for any of those CalPac homes in NP or NWII still seems high to me.

no disrespect taken.  i hear you.  i think we are paying too much, but it is what it is.  being a hopeful long-term purchase, i decided to bite the bullet.  sad we got outbid at the last second on 59 Bamboo ($786K on the 2460 sq ft model), which I figure is more reflective of an accurate price.  The extra $40K over what it's worth is costing us $200 more a month before tax subsidy.  Not thrilled about Beckman, but its still a good school, and i dont need my kids in an ultra competitive environment anyways.    we like the floorplan, low hoas and mellos.  close to everythign we like and my work.  so we've decided to plant our roots now vs. later.  locking at 4.75% so that's good too.  we've been looking for almost 1.5 yrs and figure my overall productivity will increase once i stop looking for a house.  i kept telling myself that a new 4BR SFR  with driveway in Irvine would eventually be available for $700,000, but I just don't see it happening (or will it)?
 
im not sure how accurate trulia is, but if you look at the irvine market trends, irvine seems to be more stable in pricing and sales than other parts of OC and SoCal.  When prices drop, people who couldnt afford Irvine before make the jump indicating better support levels of pricing.  I think of it like this.  If the price of a Porsche 997 all of a sudden dropped to $40K, wouldnt more people start buying it?  Even if a Honda Accord dropped from $30K to 20K, I would assume many consumers would make the jump to the Porsche.    Not to say that Irvine is a Porsche... it's more of a MB C Class or a BMW 3 series... lol (no offense if anyone drives any of the aforementioned cars).
 
akim997 said:
Not to say that Irvine is a Porsche... it's more of a MB C Class or a BMW 3 series... lol (no offense if anyone drives any of the aforementioned cars).
Irvine is neither Porsche, MB or BMW... it is pure Unicorn.

Well... actually... more like an SUV or minivan if you really want to know.
i kept telling myself that a new 4BR SFR  with driveway in Irvine would eventually be available for $700,000, but I just don't see it happening (or will it)?
Las Ventanas... but high MRs/HOA and location may be prohibitive.

I actually wouldn't mind one of those CalPac Portisol Plan 3s in Woodbury... but those seem to never hit the market.
 
akim997 said:
ucla bruin said:
Congrats. Did you buy in Northpark? A property I've been interested in just accepted an offer today :).

Currently looking into West Irvine, how do you like the area??
We are buying in Northpark Square.  Not our favorite neighboorhood, but we can't afford any of the floorplans we like in Northpark.  Our next choice was Tustin Ranch, but same thing, couldnt find a floor plan we liked. 

Akim,

Congratulations on the new home! NP Sq is a nice area and the schools are very solid. You are also in walking distance to the The Market Place, Beckman HS, and direct access to Peters Canyon trail.

As for new cars--consider a fast saloon before the minivan, maybe 4dr m3 or cts-v.

Enjoy your new home.
 
Congrats Akim!

If you ask me, it depends on the person if he wants to (or afford to) buy a Porsche or Honda. Though because Porsche has reduced 20% price, it may still be higher compared to a 20% reduced Honda - for a typical Honda buyer!

In my opinion - As long as you can afford your monthly payments (and down, obviously) and like the house you staying - housing market (who sold/bought what for how much) does not matter!

Once you buy a house, productivity you are expecting to gain will be absorbed by home improvement activity, most of it anyway.

Tustin Ranch floor plans, not sure where you have seen - in general most of them have cathedral ceilings and appeals.1
 
ucla bruin said:
Congrats. Did you buy in Northpark? A property I've been interested in just accepted an offer today :).

Currently looking into West Irvine, how do you like the area??

@ucla_bruin

I like west irvine (a bit biased obviously as i bought there). It is newer, relatively well priced compared to other newer areas. I bought in the sheridan tract which is gated and has a pool and tot lot, most other parts of west irvine do not have a gate or pool but also come with a lower HOA.

Mello roos is ~2K which is not bad, some homes have meelo roos of ~1.3K only. I am not a big fan of the just the great room only downstairs concept, most WI homes have a clear living/dining and family room separation. Nice sized lots and traditional driveway/sidewalk setup. Close to the Market Place which I tend to visit a lot. Good schools although associated with TUSD which some people mind i guess.

Conclusion: If you can get over the TUSD connection west irvine is a bargain compared to other newer areas of irvine. I don't want to even talk about the ridiculous prices of the new homes that TIC is selling.
 
akim997 said:
ucla bruin said:
Congrats. Did you buy in Northpark? A property I've been interested in just accepted an offer today :).

Currently looking into West Irvine, how do you like the area??

We are buying in Northpark Square.  Not our favorite neighboorhood, but we can't afford any of the floorplans we like in Northpark.  Our next choice was Tustin Ranch, but same thing, couldnt find a floor plan we liked.

Congrats akim, hope everything goes well and you close escrow soon. After that, enjoy and do not think too much about the house prices! :)
 
westirvine_loaner said:
ucla bruin said:
Congrats. Did you buy in Northpark? A property I've been interested in just accepted an offer today :).

Currently looking into West Irvine, how do you like the area??

@ucla_bruin

I like west irvine (a bit biased obviously as i bought there). It is newer, relatively well priced compared to other newer areas. I bought in the sheridan tract which is gated and has a pool and tot lot, most other parts of west irvine do not have a gate or pool but also come with a lower HOA.

Mello roos is ~2K which is not bad, some homes have meelo roos of ~1.3K only. I am not a big fan of the just the great room only downstairs concept, most WI homes have a clear living/dining and family room separation. Nice sized lots and traditional driveway/sidewalk setup. Close to the Market Place which I tend to visit a lot. Good schools although associated with TUSD which some people mind i guess.

Conclusion: If you can get over the TUSD connection west irvine is a bargain compared to other newer areas of irvine. I don't want to even talk about the ridiculous prices of the new homes that TIC is selling.

Thanks for the input. I really like the area when I visited. You're right that it is more of a bargain compared to some of the other areas in Irvine. Generally lower association and Mello Roos are definitely pluses for me. But you mentioned that it's newer. I'm only able to find houses built in the late 90s, which is fine by me, but haven't seen anything in 2005+. Any pointers?
 
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