Current forecast for Irvine bottom?

S

sad.machine_IHB

New member
I know initially it was at 2011



Has it been updated since then by IrvineRenter?



Based on the current forecast, how much will the median price decrease? What about the decrease for low, middle, and upper end homes?
 
Has there been an update on that forecast vs. actual line graph chart that IR does? I don't catch the blog everyday so not sure if he has posted an updated one of those.
 
[quote author="25inIrvine" date=1258513465]I don't catch the blog everyday so not sure if he has posted an updated one of those.</blockquote>


Is it just me, or does the blog (and most individuals providing comments these days) get weirder by day?
 
[quote author="CK" date=1258514140]

Is it just me, or does the blog (and most individuals providing comments these days) get weirder by day?</blockquote>


I was quite perplexed by the one yesterday that seemed to imply that you can buy a condo if you are making a little over minimum wage. Ok, I admit I just skimmed most of it so maybe that's not what the post said.
 
[quote author="CK" date=1258514140][quote author="25inIrvine" date=1258513465]I don't catch the blog everyday so not sure if he has posted an updated one of those.</blockquote>


Is it just me, or does the blog (and most individuals providing comments these days) get weirder by day?</blockquote>


You're just saying that because AZDavid makes 40% of the comments. ;-P
 
[quote author="sad.machine" date=1258512007]I know initially it was at 2011



Has it been updated since then by IrvineRenter?



Based on the current forecast, how much will the median price decrease? What about the decrease for low, middle, and upper end homes?</blockquote>


I do not know about Irvine and I have been wrong about Irvine. I do not know why it is so different, other than it seems like some Asians are very intent on living in Irvine.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1258525005][quote author="sad.machine" date=1258512007]I know initially it was at 2011



Has it been updated since then by IrvineRenter?



Based on the current forecast, how much will the median price decrease? What about the decrease for low, middle, and upper end homes?</blockquote>


I do not know about Irvine and I have been wrong about Irvine. I do not know why it is so different, other than it seems like some Asians are very intent on living in Irvine.</blockquote>


<img src="http://i33.tinypic.com/644j8x.jpg" alt="" />



Awgee,

I think this is why Irvine is so different. The white/asian ratio from 1995 (the last housing bottom) has completely reversed by 2010. There are 39.8% Caucasion students compared to 52.8% Asian students that make up the Uni High 2008 class. I see these ratio changes closely correlated with the real Asian/White demographic changes for zip code 92603 in the past ten years. I can potentially see this ratio support getting really ugly where Asians will make up 65-70% of Uni High and 25-30% Caucasions in the next 5 - 10 years. These are demographic changes i have never seen in my life.



It appears that Asian households are continuing to grow at a even pace in zip code 92603, whereas the Caucasion households are steadily decreasing.
 
[quote author="garrison" date=1258527185]Completely anecdotal information, I know - but out of the 3 all-cash offers I received on my 800K+ house, all three were Asian. Out the 30 or 40 families that scheduled viewings, 90% were Asian. I'm completely convinced that FCB's are insulating Irvine from larger market forces. YMMV...</blockquote>


and the weak dollar is not helping. I can't speak for the Chinese, but a couple of my wealthy Korean relatives are finding Irvine home prices as a bargain as their currency has appreciated 25% against the dollar. In way they are seeing this currency exchange difference as a 25% discount on Irvine homes.



From a personal level. I may be less interested in raising my family in Irvine if the Asian/Caucasion ratio did end up being 75-80%/20-25%. CK. I hope you don't rebuke me for making this comment.
 
High Gravity was right. It really does not matter. Asians will buy anything to get their kids into the good school district. TIC builds they will come like sugar attracting ants.



I have a future village name suggestion. How about Tiana-n-men Square?
 
[quote author="bkshopr" date=1258528571]I have a future village name suggestion. How about Tiana-n-men Square?</blockquote>


Villa "Una Ford? Abl?" (say it fast) ;-)
 
[quote author="ABC123" date=1258516868][quote author="CK" date=1258514140]

Is it just me, or does the blog (and most individuals providing comments these days) get weirder by day?</blockquote>


I was quite perplexed by the one yesterday that seemed to imply that you can buy a condo if you are making a little over minimum wage. Ok, I admit I just skimmed most of it so maybe that's not what the post said.</blockquote>


That RatTrap was a 20x20 prison cell thats 32 years old. And it was over $ 300.00 a Sq/Ft.

Whats next ?

Prices on Treehouses or on good spots to crash for the homeless ?

A good report on where you can park if your living out of your car ?
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1258526287][quote author="awgee" date=1258525005][quote author="sad.machine" date=1258512007]I know initially it was at 2011



Has it been updated since then by IrvineRenter?



Based on the current forecast, how much will the median price decrease? What about the decrease for low, middle, and upper end homes?</blockquote>


I do not know about Irvine and I have been wrong about Irvine. I do not know why it is so different, other than it seems like some Asians are very intent on living in Irvine.</blockquote>


<img src="http://i33.tinypic.com/644j8x.jpg" alt="" />



Awgee,

I think this is why Irvine is so different. The white/asian ratio from 1995 (the last housing bottom) has completely reversed by 2010. There are 39.8% Caucasion students compared to 52.8% Asian students that make up the Uni High 2008 class. I see these ratio changes closely correlated with the real Asian/White demographic changes for zip code 92603 in the past ten years. I can potentially see this ratio support getting really ugly where Asians will make up 65-70% of Uni High and 25-30% Caucasions in the next 5 - 10 years. These are demographic changes i have never seen in my life.



It appears that Asian households are continuing to grow at a even pace in zip code 92603, whereas the Caucasion households are steadily decreasing.</blockquote>


I believe that the only high school in Irvine left with a Caucasian majority is Woodbridge; Northwood, Uni, and Irvine High all have more Asian students than Caucasian.
 
[quote author="nefron" date=1258530113][quote author="PANDA" date=1258526287][quote author="awgee" date=1258525005][quote author="sad.machine" date=1258512007]I know initially it was at 2011



Has it been updated since then by IrvineRenter?



Based on the current forecast, how much will the median price decrease? What about the decrease for low, middle, and upper end homes?</blockquote>


I do not know about Irvine and I have been wrong about Irvine. I do not know why it is so different, other than it seems like some Asians are very intent on living in Irvine.</blockquote>


<img src="http://i33.tinypic.com/644j8x.jpg" alt="" />



Awgee,

I think this is why Irvine is so different. The white/asian ratio from 1995 (the last housing bottom) has completely reversed by 2010. There are 39.8% Caucasion students compared to 52.8% Asian students that make up the Uni High 2008 class. I see these ratio changes closely correlated with the real Asian/White demographic changes for zip code 92603 in the past ten years. I can potentially see this ratio support getting really ugly where Asians will make up 65-70% of Uni High and 25-30% Caucasions in the next 5 - 10 years. These are demographic changes i have never seen in my life.



It appears that Asian households are continuing to grow at a even pace in zip code 92603, whereas the Caucasion households are steadily decreasing.</blockquote>


I believe that the only high school in Irvine left with a Caucasian majority is Woodbridge; Northwood, Uni, and Irvine High all have more Asian students than Caucasian.</blockquote>


<img src="http://i50.tinypic.com/op3ho6.jpg" alt="" />



Ha. I think my wife went to school at Woodbridge. You are correct. Woodbridge High is the only one.. but notice that Asian students tripled since 1988 to 2008. The caucasion students declined only 10% in the past 20 years. Not nearly as bad as Uni and Northwood High.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1258519035][quote author="CK" date=1258514140][quote author="25inIrvine" date=1258513465]I don't catch the blog everyday so not sure if he has posted an updated one of those.</blockquote>


Is it just me, or does the blog (and most individuals providing comments these days) get weirder by day?</blockquote>


You're just saying that because AZDavid makes 40% of the comments. ;-P</blockquote>
Easy now... you're going to get accused of stalking or having some mental disorder.
 
Hey guys... can you stop proving my FCB Theory? All this high school registration data is going to give graphrix fits and he won't have anything to bust my chops about anymore.
 
where'd you guys get those enrollment numbers? a little scared about my kids going to school with so many asians. (i'm asian.)
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1258533079]Hey guys... can you stop proving my FCB Theory? All this high school registration data is going to give graphrix fits and he won't have anything to bust my chops about anymore.</blockquote>


Blah, that is easy... the FCBers were always there, just that their kids were not in high school yet. Go look at the Asian student population in the elementary schools from 10 years ago. I bet I'm right... and I'm not even gonna look it up. :p
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1258526287][quote author="awgee" date=1258525005]



Awgee,

I think this is why Irvine is so different. The white/asian ratio from 1995 (the last housing bottom) has completely reversed by 2010. There are 39.8% Caucasion students compared to 52.8% Asian students that make up the Uni High 2008 class. I see these ratio changes closely correlated with the real Asian/White demographic changes for zip code 92603 in the past ten years. I can potentially see this ratio support getting really ugly where Asians will make up 65-70% of Uni High and 25-30% Caucasions in the next 5 - 10 years. These are demographic changes i have never seen in my life.



It appears that Asian households are continuing to grow at a even pace in zip code 92603, whereas the Caucasion households are steadily decreasing.</blockquote>


Ten years ago 92603 (quail hill, turtle ridge & shady canyon)didn't exist. Turtle Rock was part of 92612. Another interesting but irrelevant note, prior to the El Toro marine base closing in the '90s a lot of the kids from there went to University High.
 
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