Current Climate - Buyer or Seller Market?

[Larkfield12]

Seller Market $1.2M and below
Buyer Market $1.2M and above

Agree with the post about entry level detached continuing to go up (3 bed) - Petaluma, Jasmine, San Mateo

 

[capboba]

Have you been following the financial news? They are talking about a rate hike.

Ummm, they raised interest rates in Dec and mortgage rates are down from then.  The Fed controls short term interest rates, mortgage rates are based upon long term interest rates so what the Fed does may or may not effect mortgage rates one way or another.

USCTrojanCPA are you seeing some ridiculous seller counters for homes for your clients under the 1 mil (or 1.2 mil mark)?

eg stuff like waiving most contingencies, shortening it to 10 days etc... my wife has been telling me wacky stories that makes me wonder if its all sustainable.

hell even had one with a wacky lease-back at below market rate.

 

[usctrojancpa]

Have you been following the financial news? They are talking about a rate hike.

Ummm, they raised interest rates in Dec and mortgage rates are down from then.  The Fed controls short term interest rates, mortgage rates are based upon long term interest rates so what the Fed does may or may not effect mortgage rates one way or another.

USCTrojanCPA are you seeing some ridiculous seller counters for homes for your clients under the 1 mil (or 1.2 mil mark)?

eg stuff like waiving most contingencies, shortening it to 10 days etc... my wife has been telling me wacky stories that makes me wonder if its all sustainable.

hell even had one with a wacky lease-back at below market rate.

I have been able to get free 15-30 day rentbacks, "as-is" with no repairs, and/or no appraisal contingency for my sellers of homes under $800k including properties outside of Irvine (due to multiple offers). 

I have a buyer who is looking at $2m-$3m homes in Irvine/Newport and I keep hearing "there's room in the price" and "the seller is really motivated so bring any offer" from those listing agents. 

It really is a two sided market right now. 

 

[RHOC]

Seller Market $1.2M and below
Buyer Market $1.2M and above

Agree with the post about entry level detached continuing to go up (3 bed) - Petaluma, Jasmine, San Mateo

Agree! the market for 1.2m is on a down hill..not many non fcb are going to be able to purchase those homes and from what i've seen, the is a lack of fbc these days!!! They might be a change coming to Irvine after all!!!!

 

[Goriot]

OC Supply 60 days unchanged from last year.  Following are the fastest selling cities in OC.
http://www.ocregister.com/articles/homes-716984-market-year.html

• Cypress homes sold at the quickest estimated speed, by ReportsOnHousing’s math. Cypress had a market time of 17 days, and the 44 homes listed May 19 – with an average asking price of $683,768 – was down 27 percent in a year. Demand was 76 new escrows.

• Next in speed was La Palma, with 8 homes listed – average price $644,959 – vs. 12 new escrows for a market time of 20 days. Supply is down 56 percent in a year.

• Portola Hills was third quickest, with 8 homes listed – average price $760,937 – vs. 11 new escrows for a market time of 22 days. Supply is down 27 percent in a year.

• At No. 4 was Stanton with 19 homes listed – average price $428,703 – vs. 25 new escrows for a market time of 23 days. Supply is down 41 percent in a year.

• Fifth was Foothill Ranch with 19 homes listed – average price $607,943 – vs. 22 new escrows for a market time of 26 days. Supply is down 10 percent in a year.

• Placentia was next quickest. It had 52 homes listed – average price $703,443 – vs. 57 new escrows for a market time of 27 days. Supply is down 32 percent in a year.

• Westminster was seventh. It had 44 homes listed – average price $574,233 – vs. 43 new escrows for a market time of 31 days. Supply is down 4 percent in a year.

• Rancho Santa Margarita was eighth. It had 85 homes listed – average price $569,034 – vs. 80 new escrows for a market time of 32 days. Supply is up 9 percent in a year.

• No. 9 was Buena Park with 66 homes listed – average price $576,000 – vs. 62 new escrows for a market time of 32 days. Supply is down 36 percent in a year.

 

[RHOC]

So what is everyone's opinion on the market in the next 6-12 months? Is the market going to decline with higher interest rates?  flatten out? Or keep steadily rising (Irvine specifically) with high demand, low inventory?

FYI: Irvine market trends indicate a decrease of $19,750 (-3%) in median home sales over the past year!!! So, some may wish a price hike however, it's not going to happen any more for a while. Anything over 1.5m will be a buyers market. Keep in mind most Irvine homeowners can ride this wave and aren't desperate to sale if they don't get what they ask for but they won't be getting what they ask for in those price ranges for a looooong time!!! With less FCB there will be less people able to afford these outrageous unreasonable prices for their dated homes..

 

[hello]

OC Supply 60 days unchanged from last year.  Following are the fastest selling cities in OC.
http://www.ocregister.com/articles/homes-716984-market-year.html

• Cypress homes sold at the quickest estimated speed, by ReportsOnHousing’s math. Cypress had a market time of 17 days, and the 44 homes listed May 19 – with an average asking price of $683,768 – was down 27 percent in a year. Demand was 76 new escrows.

• Next in speed was La Palma, with 8 homes listed – average price $644,959 – vs. 12 new escrows for a market time of 20 days. Supply is down 56 percent in a year.

• Portola Hills was third quickest, with 8 homes listed – average price $760,937 – vs. 11 new escrows for a market time of 22 days. Supply is down 27 percent in a year.

• At No. 4 was Stanton with 19 homes listed – average price $428,703 – vs. 25 new escrows for a market time of 23 days. Supply is down 41 percent in a year.

• Fifth was Foothill Ranch with 19 homes listed – average price $607,943 – vs. 22 new escrows for a market time of 26 days. Supply is down 10 percent in a year.

• Placentia was next quickest. It had 52 homes listed – average price $703,443 – vs. 57 new escrows for a market time of 27 days. Supply is down 32 percent in a year.

• Westminster was seventh. It had 44 homes listed – average price $574,233 – vs. 43 new escrows for a market time of 31 days. Supply is down 4 percent in a year.

• Rancho Santa Margarita was eighth. It had 85 homes listed – average price $569,034 – vs. 80 new escrows for a market time of 32 days. Supply is up 9 percent in a year.

• No. 9 was Buena Park with 66 homes listed – average price $576,000 – vs. 62 new escrows for a market time of 32 days. Supply is down 36 percent in a year.

If you look at redfin data, there is over 2200 more homes for sale in Orange County now then there were 1 year ago and about 2700 more than 2014.

As of May 9th, Irvine had about 800 homes for sale versus 550 at the same time in 2015  I know RHOC mentioned a decrease of 3% in median sale prices, Redfin indicates a decrease of 6% in median sale prices. 

There are also consistently decreased sales numbers YoY. 

We are seeing all this as we enter the middle of peak selling/buying season. 

Unless something happens to drastically change these trends, I believe it will become more a buyers market. 

 

[Ready2Downsize]

Does this include new homes?

 

[DrTravel]

Does this include new homes?

Unfortunately no - only a market crash would result in a buyers market for new homes. When was the last time buyers actually had the upper hand when dealing with new home builders? The last crash about 10 years ago.

 

[Goriot]

As of May 9th, Irvine had about 800 homes for sale versus 550 at the same time in 2015  I know RHOC mentioned a decrease of 3% in median sale prices, Redfin indicates a decrease of 6% in median sale prices. 

There are also consistently decreased sales numbers YoY. 

We are seeing all this as we enter the middle of peak selling/buying season. 

Unless something happens to drastically change these trends, I believe it will become more a buyers market.
[/quote]

Redfin data at the moment is not good for trending analysis as it started including new built including model homes six months ago.  If you filter out 2016+ builds, the existing inventory is high 500s to low 600s slightly higher than last year.  Currently, Sellers' market for sub $900k and Buyers' market for $1.2mm+ and neutral for in between.

 

[peppy]

There are also consistently decreased sales numbers YoY. 

We are seeing all this as we enter the middle of peak selling/buying season. 

Unless something happens to drastically change these trends, I believe it will become more a buyers market.

Looks different if you focus in on particular ZIP codes rather than Irvine (or OC) as a whole.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

The price got to be right otherwise, the house will sit there forever. Then the listing will chase the true market value downward.....Can be depressing for those list WTF price to begin with.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I think it's a seller's market.

I am now getting flyers in the mail from realtors telling you how much they sold homes for... that should be an indicator.

And the fact that homes smaller than the one we sold a few years ago are selling for more is another one.

 

[Ready2Downsize]

Does this include new homes?

Unfortunately no - only a market crash would result in a buyers market for new homes. When was the last time buyers actually had the upper hand when dealing with new home builders? The last crash about 10 years ago.

I just wondered if the number of homes included new homes or just resales.

And I know you can bargain on standing inventory in the upper end. Lower end no because the Irvine company goes to China and markets their product. As long as they have basically unlimited numbers of people they can get from overseas they will be able to just keep selling.

 

[usctrojancpa]

As of May 9th, Irvine had about 800 homes for sale versus 550 at the same time in 2015  I know RHOC mentioned a decrease of 3% in median sale prices, Redfin indicates a decrease of 6% in median sale prices. 

There are also consistently decreased sales numbers YoY. 

We are seeing all this as we enter the middle of peak selling/buying season. 

Unless something happens to drastically change these trends, I believe it will become more a buyers market.

Redfin data at the moment is not good for trending analysis as it started including new built including model homes six months ago.  If you filter out 2016+ builds, the existing inventory is high 500s to low 600s slightly higher than last year.  Currently, Sellers' market for sub $900k and Buyers' market for $1.2mm+ and neutral for in between.
[/quote]

As of 4:30pm on June 1st, there are 622 active listings in Irvine and if you exclude homes built in 2016 (new homes on MLS) there are only 577 active listings.  So Redfin's numbers aren't accurate.  It's definitely a seller's market under $1m.

 

[AW]

Sellers market < $1m eh?
Alright, who wants to buy a 3bd condo in Woodbury, TI members get first dibs, and I'll even throw in my house dog!

 

[NewtoIrvine1]

As of May 9th, Irvine had about 800 homes for sale versus 550 at the same time in 2015  I know RHOC mentioned a decrease of 3% in median sale prices, Redfin indicates a decrease of 6% in median sale prices. 

There are also consistently decreased sales numbers YoY. 

We are seeing all this as we enter the middle of peak selling/buying season. 

Unless something happens to drastically change these trends, I believe it will become more a buyers market.

Redfin data at the moment is not good for trending analysis as it started including new built including model homes six months ago.  If you filter out 2016+ builds, the existing inventory is high 500s to low 600s slightly higher than last year.  Currently, Sellers' market for sub $900k and Buyers' market for $1.2mm+ and neutral for in between.

As of 4:30pm on June 1st, there are 622 active listings in Irvine and if you exclude homes built in 2016 (new homes on MLS) there are only 577 active listings.  So Redfin's numbers aren't accurate.  It's definitely a seller's market under $1m.
[/quote]

Weird because Zillow
http://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sal...,-117.463074,33.132951,-118.939362_rect/9_zm/
http://www.trulia.com/CA/Irvine/
https://www.redfin.com/city/9361/CA/Irvine/filter/viewport=33.80118:33.57006:-117.55847:-117.99209

is showing 900+ homes redfin is showing 771 listed homes 900+ on Truilia. Granted these have new homes on them but even them a home seller has to compete against new construction as well... So thats definately a spike up against previous years and i don't know if you have sold data but i would bet it's lower than last year as well...

 

[usctrojancpa]

As of May 9th, Irvine had about 800 homes for sale versus 550 at the same time in 2015  I know RHOC mentioned a decrease of 3% in median sale prices, Redfin indicates a decrease of 6% in median sale prices. 

There are also consistently decreased sales numbers YoY. 

We are seeing all this as we enter the middle of peak selling/buying season. 

Unless something happens to drastically change these trends, I believe it will become more a buyers market.

Redfin data at the moment is not good for trending analysis as it started including new built including model homes six months ago.  If you filter out 2016+ builds, the existing inventory is high 500s to low 600s slightly higher than last year.  Currently, Sellers' market for sub $900k and Buyers' market for $1.2mm+ and neutral for in between.

As of 4:30pm on June 1st, there are 622 active listings in Irvine and if you exclude homes built in 2016 (new homes on MLS) there are only 577 active listings.  So Redfin's numbers aren't accurate.  It's definitely a seller's market under $1m.

Weird because Zillow
http://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sal...,-117.463074,33.132951,-118.939362_rect/9_zm/
http://www.trulia.com/CA/Irvine/
https://www.redfin.com/city/9361/CA/Irvine/filter/viewport=33.80118:33.57006:-117.55847:-117.99209

is showing 900+ homes redfin is showing 771 listed homes 900+ on Truilia. Granted these have new homes on them but even them a home seller has to compete against new construction as well... So thats definately a spike up against previous years and i don't know if you have sold data but i would bet it's lower than last year as well...


[/quote]

No offense to Zillow/Trulia, but their listing number is off and that's because come of their listing show as active when they've already been in escrow for weeks or have even closed.  Redfin's inventory is closer to what is actually in MLS as it's updated every hour or so from an MLS feed.  Here's some sales data for you over the past 3 months (does not include new homes that weren't listed on MLS)...

April 2016 Irvine sales - 212
April 2015 Irvine sales - 245
March 2016 Irvine sales - 243
March 2015 Irvine sales - 218
Feb 2016 Irvine sales - 199 (leap year)
Feb 2015 Irvine sales - 137

As you can see, sales are actually up year over year in the same 3 month period and there's around 3 months of inventory (weak seller's market).  I'll tell you this much, if there were no new homes for sale resale home prices would have been increasing.

 

[eatthis]

As you can see, sales are actually up year over year in the same 3 month period and there's around 3 months of inventory (weak seller's market).  I'll tell you this much, if there were no new homes for sale resale home prices would have been increasing.

You'd think builders would let the market absorb the inventory and wait for prices to rise a bit before bringing on more inventory. They would do far better. Instead, they flood the market with more products only to have them sit around for  months and then have to offer big incentives.

 

[sell4u]

OC Supply 60 days unchanged from last year.  Following are the fastest selling cities in OC.
http://www.ocregister.com/articles/homes-716984-market-year.html

• Cypress homes sold at the quickest estimated speed, by ReportsOnHousing’s math. Cypress had a market time of 17 days, and the 44 homes listed May 19 – with an average asking price of $683,768 – was down 27 percent in a year. Demand was 76 new escrows.

• Next in speed was La Palma, with 8 homes listed – average price $644,959 – vs. 12 new escrows for a market time of 20 days. Supply is down 56 percent in a year.

• Portola Hills was third quickest, with 8 homes listed – average price $760,937 – vs. 11 new escrows for a market time of 22 days. Supply is down 27 percent in a year.

• At No. 4 was Stanton with 19 homes listed – average price $428,703 – vs. 25 new escrows for a market time of 23 days. Supply is down 41 percent in a year.

• Fifth was Foothill Ranch with 19 homes listed – average price $607,943 – vs. 22 new escrows for a market time of 26 days. Supply is down 10 percent in a year.

• Placentia was next quickest. It had 52 homes listed – average price $703,443 – vs. 57 new escrows for a market time of 27 days. Supply is down 32 percent in a year.

• Westminster was seventh. It had 44 homes listed – average price $574,233 – vs. 43 new escrows for a market time of 31 days. Supply is down 4 percent in a year.

• Rancho Santa Margarita was eighth. It had 85 homes listed – average price $569,034 – vs. 80 new escrows for a market time of 32 days. Supply is up 9 percent in a year.

• No. 9 was Buena Park with 66 homes listed – average price $576,000 – vs. 62 new escrows for a market time of 32 days. Supply is down 36 percent in a year.

If you look at redfin data, there is over 2200 more homes for sale in Orange County now then there were 1 year ago and about 2700 more than 2014.

As of May 9th, Irvine had about 800 homes for sale versus 550 at the same time in 2015  I know RHOC mentioned a decrease of 3% in median sale prices, Redfin indicates a decrease of 6% in median sale prices. 

There are also consistently decreased sales numbers YoY. 

We are seeing all this as we enter the middle of peak selling/buying season. 

Unless something happens to drastically change these trends, I believe it will become more a buyers market. 

Not sure where you are obtaining 800 as of May 9th....
I log active inventories weekly for OC using the MLS.  During the week of May 11th Irvine was at 575.  In 2015 it was 565.  2014 it was 613.  Currently Irvine is at 621.  Typically Irvine will stretch it's legs around August. Last year it touches around 700 during the August period. And by January Irvine is in the 380-400 range.