Could Irvine turn into the Beverly Hills of Orange County?

[quote author="bkshopr" date=1242734327][quote author="Mcdonna1980" date=1242733657]Why is it that Asians are characterised as being smart but these discussions all suggest they are too dump to figure out that buying Irvine real estate is a dumb-ass financial move. Something isn't adding up.</blockquote>


Asians are extremely textbook smart. Mostly engineer smart but not business smart.</blockquote>


This is a generalized statement that is very unscientific. Sorry bk, I respectfully disagree.



Martin Li Ka-shing, Forbes 16th richest in the world. Not textbook smart at all, super business smart. A complete opposite of what you described.
 
[quote author="FairEconomist" date=1242735508]Irvine is a well-done kind of bland suburbia with a very high job/house ratio, so it will always command something of a premium. But Beverly Hills has huge moviestar cachet, lots of extremely wealthy residents, and many unique jawdropping houses (in both good and bad ways). Irvine doesn't have, and is unlikely to ever have, any of those. The cachet is along the coast, the ultrawealthy scattered around in the county, and Irvine by design has very little that makes you say "wow, I never saw anything like that before" (usually the house next door is pretty darn similar :p ) Irvine will never be a Beverly Hills.



In terms of substitutes, Corona has its problems, but there are many cities in the OC which are pretty good substitutes for Irvine. Is anybody thinking about those? That was our choice - we could have had a somewhat smaller place in Irvine, but we picked Orange and we're very happy with it. I'd say house prices here are still too high, but they have come down more than Irvine has.</blockquote>


Yes, after Corona. I drove my wife to Washington Square neighborhood in Santa Ana. I like the neighborhood and houses there. But my wife has reservations.
 
[quote author="Look4house" date=1242735777][quote author="bkshopr" date=1242734327][quote author="Mcdonna1980" date=1242733657]Why is it that Asians are characterised as being smart but these discussions all suggest they are too dump to figure out that buying Irvine real estate is a dumb-ass financial move. Something isn't adding up.</blockquote>


Asians are extremely textbook smart. Mostly engineer smart but not business smart.</blockquote>


This is a generalized statement that is very unscientific. Sorry bk, I respectfully disagree.



Martin Li Ka-shing, Forbes 16th richest in the world. Not textbook smart at all, super business smart. A complete opposite of what you described.</blockquote>


Once again, none of us are talking in absolutes or trying to stereotype a certain ethnic group. Bk uses overall trends and observation to his benefit and has been able to successful surmise the likes and dislikes of certain groups in order to design things that appeal to them. No one is saying that there aren't exceptions.
 
[quote author="tmare" date=1242735964][quote author="Look4house" date=1242735777][quote author="bkshopr" date=1242734327][quote author="Mcdonna1980" date=1242733657]Why is it that Asians are characterised as being smart but these discussions all suggest they are too dump to figure out that buying Irvine real estate is a dumb-ass financial move. Something isn't adding up.</blockquote>


Asians are extremely textbook smart. Mostly engineer smart but not business smart.</blockquote>


This is a generalized statement that is very unscientific. Sorry bk, I respectfully disagree.



Martin Li Ka-shing, Forbes 16th richest in the world. Not textbook smart at all, super business smart. A complete opposite of what you described.</blockquote>


Once again, none of us are talking in absolutes or trying to stereotype a certain ethnic group. Bk uses overall trends and observation to his benefit and has been able to successful surmise the likes and dislikes of certain groups in order to design things that appeal to them. No one is saying that there aren't exceptions.</blockquote>


I would say BK's method is far from scientific. Purely empirical but works for what it's worth.
 
[quote author="Look4house" date=1242735777][quote author="bkshopr" date=1242734327][quote author="Mcdonna1980" date=1242733657]Why is it that Asians are characterised as being smart but these discussions all suggest they are too dump to figure out that buying Irvine real estate is a dumb-ass financial move. Something isn't adding up.</blockquote>


Asians are extremely textbook smart. Mostly engineer smart but not business smart.</blockquote>


This is a generalized statement that is very unscientific. Sorry bk, I respectfully disagree.



Martin Li Ka-shing, Forbes 16th richest in the world. Not textbook smart at all, super business smart. A complete opposite of what you described.</blockquote>


He is one out of a billion Chinese who succeeded. He started with the dark side before finding his place in high society and legitimized his businesses. He is not exactly a role model in his personal and ethical life. In my book he is rich in his pocketbook but poverty in his soul.
 
[quote author="Mcdonna1980" date=1242733657]Why is it that Asians are characterised as being smart but these discussions all suggest they are too dump to figure out that buying Irvine real estate is a dumb-ass financial move. Something isn't adding up.</blockquote>


We all think they are dump. The truth is the houses are being bought with a big down payment or even cash. If someone has a net worth of 10 million, buying a 20% overpriced home of 1 million is not dump. Irvine will not turn into Beverly Hills. But we are seeing Irvine consists of a high percentage of Asians that are wealthier than the average population, and I think the trend will only go up.
 
[quote author="Look4house" date=1242736339][quote author="Mcdonna1980" date=1242733657]Why is it that Asians are characterised as being smart but these discussions all suggest they are too dump to figure out that buying Irvine real estate is a dumb-ass financial move. Something isn't adding up.</blockquote>


We all think they are dump. The truth is the houses are being bought with a big down payment or even cash. If someone has a net worth of 10 million, buying a 20% overpriced home of 1 million is not dump. Irvine will not turn into Beverly Hills. But we are seeing Irvine consists of a high percentage of Asians that are wealthier than the average population, and I think the trend will only go up.</blockquote>


Why? Where is the money coming from to support this trend?
 
[quote author="Look4house" date=1242736339][quote author="Mcdonna1980" date=1242733657]Why is it that Asians are characterised as being smart but these discussions all suggest they are too dump to figure out that buying Irvine real estate is a dumb-ass financial move. Something isn't adding up.</blockquote>


We all think they are dump. The truth is the houses are being bought with a big down payment or even cash. If someone has a net worth of 10 million, buying a 20% overpriced home of 1 million is not dump. Irvine will not turn into Beverly Hills. But we are seeing Irvine consists of a high percentage of Asians that are wealthier than the average population, and I think the trend will only go up.</blockquote>


It's <em></em>dumb but I get the idea, I understand that you believe this.
 
[quote author="green_cactus" date=1242736206][quote author="tmare" date=1242735964][quote author="Look4house" date=1242735777][quote author="bkshopr" date=1242734327][quote author="Mcdonna1980" date=1242733657]Why is it that Asians are characterised as being smart but these discussions all suggest they are too dump to figure out that buying Irvine real estate is a dumb-ass financial move. Something isn't adding up.</blockquote>


Asians are extremely textbook smart. Mostly engineer smart but not business smart.</blockquote>


This is a generalized statement that is very unscientific. Sorry bk, I respectfully disagree.



Martin Li Ka-shing, Forbes 16th richest in the world. Not textbook smart at all, super business smart. A complete opposite of what you described.</blockquote>


Once again, none of us are talking in absolutes or trying to stereotype a certain ethnic group. Bk uses overall trends and observation to his benefit and has been able to successful surmise the likes and dislikes of certain groups in order to design things that appeal to them. No one is saying that there aren't exceptions.</blockquote>


I would say BK's method is far from scientific. Purely empirical but works for what it's worth.</blockquote>


I am not trying to cover the whole curve but just the blue region. The blue region is enough of samples to create a critical mass for product development. Li Ka-Shing does not fall into the blue.



<img src="http://thesoni.com/Intelligence1.jpg" alt="" />
 
[quote author="bkshopr" date=1242735693][quote author="reason" date=1242735058]Bigger......newer........cheaper..........300K with the full brown yard eh?



The kicker was the neighbors. White trash does not begin to describe these people. Lots of abandoned cars, adults riding dirt bikes in the street (in the middle of the day!), at least four foreclosures (or at least fully abandoned yellow yards a foot tall). Oil spills. Lots and lots of sketchy stuff. They don?t call it ?Valley of the Dirt People? for nothing.





Yep, I gave in to my wife and decided to drive out to Corona last Saturday. She insisted that we look at 2000 sq. ft homes in the mid 300k. It was tempting, alright. A big SFR with a backyard and the price is less than an Irvine condo. For the last 4 months, I kept warning her about the commute. She said for that price I am willing to be stuck in traffic. (Currently her commuting time is 15 min. thru residential streets, never commuted on the freeways to work).



So there we were driving on the 91 East bound to Corona on a Saturday and near Riverbend, traffic snarled for 20 minutes. Then another 25 minutes on our way back. Needless to say, with that minor traffic jam, she changed her mind about owning a big SFR out in Corona.



Regarding the SFRs in Corona, they were pretty decent. Although, we saw some funny stuffs as we drove around the neighborhood. Like this one guy hung dried his undies in the garage. Then a few houses down, we saw a dusty bat mobile. Yes, the freaking bat mobile!</blockquote>


Garages can hurt the perception of visitors interested in the neighborhood and turn them away by just some functional display of undies for drying. Just imagine what Reason and his wife's perception would be had they seen someone frying a turkey, playing poker and kids doing timeout by playing game machines in the garage. When garages are at the front keep them close to leave a better impression for visitors driving by.</blockquote>


You're so right about the frontal garages. I didn't even think about it until you pointed it out. When I was looking at homes in Corona, the first thing I honed in was the garages. I didn't really notice the house. But later on in the day, as I looked at homes in Washington Square in Santa Ana I was admiring the homes b/c I didn't see the garages.
 
There are too many research firms based their finding purely on facts and figures. They are worth a dime a dozen. There is just one BK that balance statistic, emotion, and observation.
 
Still more of an observation than a scientific analysis, per se. Sorry about nitpicking so much - I still think it adds a lot of value. And yes, you are probably right in your assumptions in 50-60% of the cases.
 
[quote author="green_cactus" date=1242737286]Still more of an observation than a scientific analysis, per se. Sorry about nitpicking so much - I still think it adds a lot of value. And yes, you are probably right in your assumptions in 50-60% of the cases.</blockquote>


That is all I need to hit 60% at the middle of the curve and not target the 20% at both fringes. There are always exceptions and it is a huge risk to developing products catering the fringes. Prediction and trends are not totally based on just scientific facts and figures. Use the recent predictions: triplex products for example, TIC shutting down developments for several years, mothballing Orchard and Laguna, Jeffrey Open Space inviting hobos, and etc.
 
[quote author="bkshopr" date=1242735693][quote author="reason" date=1242735058]Bigger......newer........cheaper..........300K with the full brown yard eh?



The kicker was the neighbors. White trash does not begin to describe these people. Lots of abandoned cars, adults riding dirt bikes in the street (in the middle of the day!), at least four foreclosures (or at least fully abandoned yellow yards a foot tall). Oil spills. Lots and lots of sketchy stuff. They don?t call it ?Valley of the Dirt People? for nothing.





Yep, I gave in to my wife and decided to drive out to Corona last Saturday. She insisted that we look at 2000 sq. ft homes in the mid 300k. It was tempting, alright. A big SFR with a backyard and the price is less than an Irvine condo. For the last 4 months, I kept warning her about the commute. She said for that price I am willing to be stuck in traffic. (Currently her commuting time is 15 min. thru residential streets, never commuted on the freeways to work).



So there we were driving on the 91 East bound to Corona on a Saturday and near Riverbend, traffic snarled for 20 minutes. Then another 25 minutes on our way back. Needless to say, with that minor traffic jam, she changed her mind about owning a big SFR out in Corona.



Regarding the SFRs in Corona, they were pretty decent. Although, we saw some funny stuffs as we drove around the neighborhood. Like this one guy hung dried his undies in the garage. Then a few houses down, we saw a dusty bat mobile. Yes, the freaking bat mobile!</blockquote>


Garages can hurt the perception of visitors interested in the neighborhood and turn them away by just some functional display of undies for drying. Just imagine what Reason and his wife's perception would be had they seen someone frying a turkey, playing poker and kids doing timeout by playing game machines in the garage. When garages are at the front keep them close to leave a better impression for visitors driving by.</blockquote>


It wasn't the garage - it was the driveways and the freaking street that freaked me out!
 
[quote author="bkshopr" date=1242737251]There are too many research firms based their finding purely on facts and figures. They are worth a dime a dozen. There is just one BK that balance statistic, emotion, and observation.</blockquote>


Bk has make a lot of good observations and contributed valuable information. His posts are usually well thought with substance to support his views. I just happen to pick on the fact that there are just as many non-Asians that are book smart, but have no clues about finances.
 
[quote author="Look4house" date=1242737999][quote author="bkshopr" date=1242737251]There are too many research firms based their finding purely on facts and figures. They are worth a dime a dozen. There is just one BK that balance statistic, emotion, and observation.</blockquote>


Bk has make a lot of good observations and contributed valuable information. His posts are usually well thought with substance to support his views. I just happen to pick on the fact that there are just as many non-Asians that are book smart, but have no clues about finances.</blockquote>


Totally valid. I feel sorry for those who are book dumb and financially clueless.
 
Is this Bizarro World? This whole thread sounds so FCB-ish to me and I'm not the one supporting it.



Not even I think that Irvine real estate is worth $375/sft... even when compared to $5/sf IE.



We'll see a drop back to fundamentals... it will still be higher than most of OC... but not $375 high... and that's even accounting for the FCBs and frontal garages.
 
[quote author="tmare" date=1242735964][quote author="Look4house" date=1242735777][quote author="bkshopr" date=1242734327][quote author="Mcdonna1980" date=1242733657]Why is it that Asians are characterised as being smart but these discussions all suggest they are too dump to figure out that buying Irvine real estate is a dumb-ass financial move. Something isn't adding up.</blockquote>


Asians are extremely textbook smart. Mostly engineer smart but not business smart.</blockquote>


This is a generalized statement that is very unscientific. Sorry bk, I respectfully disagree.



Martin Li Ka-shing, Forbes 16th richest in the world. Not textbook smart at all, super business smart. A complete opposite of what you described.</blockquote>


Once again, none of us are talking in absolutes or trying to stereotype a certain ethnic group. Bk uses overall trends and observation to his benefit and has been able to successful surmise the likes and dislikes of certain groups in order to design things that appeal to them. No one is saying that there aren't exceptions.</blockquote>


Uh... excuse me... explain to me how the quote "Asians are extremely textbook smart. Mostly engineer smart but not business smart" is anything BUT a naive racial stereotype. I would guess it is a very small percentage of Asians in southern california which are engineers. Have you ever been to Garden Grove, Westminster, Koreatown, etc... there are alot of very hard working Asians. There are many successful Asian business owners... or need I remind you about the whole Koreatown riots, and how the African Americans looted and burned down primarily Korean owned businesses? Those business owners might not be Donald Trump, but many of them came over here with very little, if anything, to their name... and they have successful family run businesses to show for it. I call that business smart and success... MUCH more so than some white guy who goes to Harvard, gets a degree and some high paying job because of who his daddy is, what school he want to, or the fact that he plays LaCrosse.



Even in Irvine, the engineering population is probably not a majority... quite simply there aren't enough engineering jobs in Orange County compared to the population. Yes, if you look at engineering schools, they might be dominated by Asians in some cases... but that doesn't mean all Asians are engineers, nor that they are "textbook smart". If there is anything textbook about that comment, its that it is textbook stereotyping and racist.



I also disagree with your comment "no on is saying there aren't exceptions". His comment was "Asians are extremely textbook smart. Mostly engineer smart but not business smart". That is very open and shut to me.



Delroy
 
I am hoping that Irvine turns into the next Beverly Hills. I can't wait for Paris Hilton or Lindsay Lohan to move next door to me.
 
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