coronavirus

@qwerty: You still don't get it. For a concept that's so simple I don't understand why you continue to struggle with it.

Why do you think the death rate is that low? Because of the lockdown and other safety protocols. The infection rate and death rate goes up when people don't adhere to the guidelines and medical resources like Italy and NYC are overtaxed.

Even if just Covid itself has a small percentage of death, when hospitals are overrun, treatable cases become deaths. Treatable cases from other medical issues become deaths. That's what we are trying to avoid... that's flattening the curve.

How many unemployed do you think there would be if the death rate was higher? Businesses were shutting down regardless of the lockdown. There were many businesses that fell into the "essential" category yet they voluntarily furloughed or laid people off due to safety concerns. Every restaurant was capable of doing takeout so they could have stayed open, but many chose to shut down.

And there were many companies that didn't lay people off... they went remote. But imagine if all these people are sick? Businesses would struggle because their workforce was impaired (like the meat packing companies).

You keep talking about how we shouldn't have locked down... so what would have happened if we didn't? Again, Dow fell way before the lockdown orders and there were many states that didn't shut down strictly yet suffered the same economic hit.

It's disingenuous to say the lockdown caused the economy to fall... it was the virus. And if left unchecked, it would be much worse. You keep saying that how is saving a life from Covid greater than X... but that's not the argument. It's just saving lives period... and with Covid, there were so many unknowns, everyone (including you) were taking precautions to make sure we were safe. All those other things are known risks and we have treatments/vaccines/remedies for... that's why this is different.

One other thing, it's so easy to opine after the fact and after the curve has been flattened. You weren't so brave when Italy and NYC were suffering. Are you going back to the office every day now? Even if the death rate is so low... do you want to get Covid? No. No one does because we don't know what the long term effects are and there is no guarantee we won't be in that percentage that does die. That's why it's important that we adhere to safety guidelines. You can't keep saying "if you die you die" but then in the same breath say "well, I don't want to get Covid". Why don't you?
 
Here is the leading cause of death per CDC:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm

Heart disease: 647,457
Cancer: 599,108
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
Alzheimer?s disease: 121,404
Diabetes: 83,564
Influenza and pneumonia: 55,672
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 50,633
Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

Current death for Covid-19 is 127,000 in USA.
We can extrapolate it to 1 year and just say 250,000 will die in 1 year to match the stats above.

The 250,000 deaths is from USA wearing masks and social distancing and closing down schools.  Deaths would be 500,000+ by year end if we do nothing.  There is a balance somewhere, and being so new, government is trying to find it. 

Wear a mask, it will help.
 
qwerty said:
You sure it would only be 500,000?

My model says it would be 1M+ :)

Do you know the difference between a model and extrapolation? One is educated (suspect at times) predicting... the other is just math.

Edit: Typo
 
qwerty said:
You sure it would only be 500,000?

My model says it would be 1M+ :)

So here is some good news regarding corona virus deaths.
Even though cases are going up, death are going down.


daily-covid-deaths-3-day-average.svg



However, why the spike today?
 
So I see comments that since young people get Covid and are asymptomatic or mild symptoms... that is a good thing. It is not.

That's the problem with Covid, unlike the flu which you know you have, but with this... you are contagious and spreading it without knowing it.

That is the caution they said in today's HHS presser... since more young people are out and about, contracting it but are asymptomatic, they are actually spreading it more... and unfortunately, to the at risk elderly and comorbidity population.

This was why there had to be a lockdown. If we did some half-measure, there would be a significant portion of the population who would be doing things as if nothing was wrong and thus spreading the virus more. Even now, people are not following guidelines and that's why there are spikes... this is what would have happened back in March/April but at a much higher rate.

So with the reopening, we just need to be aware of that and do what we can to be safe. Buy more time to get us a vaccine for those who "should die" (according to qwerty) and to develop better treatment options to prevent others from dying.
 
We've already been through the lockdown. Did it help a bit? Not a bit. We are seeing a surge of the new cases within the incubation period from the riots.
The vaccine is nowhere on the horizon. There are two way to address the issue.
1. Keep the country fully locked down till the vaccine arrives. If it ever arrives
2. Admit the fact, the virus is among us and stop further killing the economy. Americans can't handle the quarantine and unemployment altogether, they start crashing the country foundation.
 
adventurous said:
We've already been through the lockdown. Did it help a bit? Not a bit.

You keep saying this but it's not true. Look at the charts. Or is this more of your "in your mind" news?

We are seeing a surge of the new cases within the incubation period from the riots.

So that wasn't from the lockdown... that was from the protests/riots AND reopenings. "Think again."

The vaccine is nowhere on the horizon. There are two way to address the issue.
1. Keep the country fully locked down till the vaccine arrives. If it ever arrives
2. Admit the fact, the virus is among us and stop further killing the economy. Americans can't handle the quarantine and unemployment altogether, they start crashing the country foundation.

Or:

3. Keep reopening safely, adhere to safety protocols (ie social distancing, masks).
 
irvinehomeowner said:
You keep saying this but it's not true. Look at the charts. Or is this more of your "in your mind" news?
Prove me wrong. Here is the chart for California. Where is the promised curve bent?https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/california/

irvinehomeowner said:
So that wasn't from the lockdown... that was from the protests/riots AND reopenings. "Think again."
We have a surge of new cases, but mortality doesn't follow. Thinking hard... The virus lost the teeth? What do you think?

irvinehomeowner said:
Or:
3. Keep reopening safely, adhere to safety protocols (ie social distancing, masks).
Only if the state leadership (aka Gavin N.) has guts to enforce his own orders on everyone, not just on the people representing the other party. He was bashing the beachgoers, but haven't squeaked a word during the riots. He literally showed a political bias in his virus response and completely discredited his strategy (or whatever he had called a strategy).
 
adventurous said:
irvinehomeowner said:
You keep saying this but it's not true. Look at the charts. Or is this more of your "in your mind" news?
Prove me wrong. Here is the chart for California. Where is the promised curve bent?https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/california/
Really? California is one of the problem states because they started reopening in May... remember the beaches? If you look prior to May it was starting to flatten out. Look at the US chart... or the New York one. Go join qwerty in the corner.

irvinehomeowner said:
So that wasn't from the lockdown... that was from the protests/riots AND reopenings. "Think again."
We have a surge of new cases, but mortality doesn't follow. Thinking hard... The virus lost the teeth? What do you think?

Or because we flattened the curve and prevented overtaxing medical resources, we are better able to treat Covid to avoid deaths. Think harder.

irvinehomeowner said:
Or:
3. Keep reopening safely, adhere to safety protocols (ie social distancing, masks).
Only if the state leadership (aka Gavin N.) has guts to enforce his own orders on everyone, not just on the people representing the other party. He was bashing the beachgoers, but haven't squeaked a word during the riots. He literally showed a political bias in his virus response and completely discredited his strategy (or whatever he had called a strategy).

Staying apolitical here... but Rep governors are slowing or reversing their reopenings:
https://www.businessinsider.com/states-and-cities-slowing-pausing-coronavirus-reopening-plans-2020-6

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott just rolled back his state's reopening plan. It was the latest in a series of leaders' decisions to delay or reverse lockdown lifts.

Abbott announced a pause in reopening on Thursday, saying businesses that have already reopened would be allowed to continue operating at limited capacity. Then on Friday, he shifted course, shuttering bars, limiting restaurant capacity to 50%, closing tubing and rafting businesses, and mandating government approval for gatherings of 100 or more people.

So it's not just Democrats who see what you don't see about the virus. As I said... reaction to this virus is non-partisan.
 
Newsom telling Imperial County to stay at home, San Bernardino county hospitals reaching surge capacity and 7 counties have to close their bars.

Is this what qwerty wants to see?
 
Houston Chronicle Article: Houston hospitals hit 100% base ICU capacity. Then they stopped reporting data.

Texas Medical Center hospitals have stopped reporting key metrics showing the stress rising numbers of COVID-19 patients are placing on their facilities, undermining data that policy makers and the public have relied upon during the pandemic to gauge the spread of the coronavirus.
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/ne...pitals-hit-100-base-ICU-capacity-15372256.php

Fox News: Texas orders bars closed, reduces restaurant capacity as coronavirus cases hit all-time high
https://www.foxnews.com/us/texas-or...pacity-as-coronavirus-cases-hit-all-time-high


ABC article:Video showing people standing close together in a crowded Houston nightclub was recorded over the weekend and began circulating online.
https://abc13.com/spire-night-club-...-texas-covid-19-governor-greg-abbott/6278691/
 
Pence actually wore a mask before going up to the stage at last week?s press conference.

Over the weekend he was also interviewed recommending the use of masks.

Trump is going to scold him. :)
 
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