Case Schiller Index for Costa Mesa

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freedomcm

Active member
I'm reposting the data for the past here, and will update the information as usual.

I've been following:

All SFRs in 92626 and 92627

Most condos (excluding the apartment conversions mostly) in 92626 and 92627

Newport Beach

Most SFRs and some condos (again excluding the conversions) in 92660 and 92663 that are priced under $1M
 
Case-Schiller for Costa Mesa
SFR <$900k, a few nice condos

Month.......Sales.......Price.......SE..........CS=.........SEM....................................equivalent date
JFM:............15.........479.........22.......182............8.........(limited dataset).............Feb 2004
April:...........10.........491.........14.......188............7.........(limited dataset).............Mar 2004
May:............27.........532.........15.......184............5..............................................Mar 2004
June:...........26.........548.........21.......181............5..............................................Feb 2004
July:............37.........516.........17.......184 ...........5..............................................Mar 2004
Aug:............47.........548.........15.......191............5..............................................Apr 2004
Sept:...........37.........548.........23.......177............4..............................................Jan 2004
Oct:.............39.........538.........20.......180............4..............................................Feb 2004
Nov..............29.........518.........25.......180............6..............................................Feb 2004


Sales volume dropped a bit and prices dropped nominally in November. I added the mean and se for the selling price to the stats this month. This is of course biased by the houses that I personally track (excluding lower end condos and higher end SFRs), but it does track every sale of SFRs below $900k in the market. (I do actually track some above $900k for kicks and giggles, but none of them have sold in the past year, maybe not surprisingly)

Most of these sales went into escrow October And as the month progressed, the CS values dropped, but not the big drops with the tightening credit that we were looking for.

We'll see what December brings?
 
Costa Mesa CS index takes a dive!


Case-Schiller for Costa Mesa
SFR <$900k, a few nice condos

Month.......Sales.......Price.......SE..........CS=.........SEM....................................equivalent date
JFM:............15.........479.........22.......182............8.........(limited dataset).............Feb 2004
April:...........10.........491.........14.......188............7.........(limited dataset).............Mar 2004
May:............27.........532.........15.......184............5..............................................Mar 2004
June:...........26.........548.........21.......181............5..............................................Feb 2004
July:............37.........516.........17.......184 ...........5..............................................Mar 2004
Aug:............47.........548.........15.......191............5..............................................Apr 2004
Sept:...........37.........548.........23.......177............4..............................................Jan 2004
Oct:.............39.........538.........20.......180............4..............................................Feb 2004
Nov..............29.........518.........25.......180............6..............................................Feb 2004
Dec............38........463........17......162..........3.............................................Aug 2003

Sales volume increased back to the frenzied Fall pace, while prices continue their plunge in this final month of the year. The mean is of course biased by the houses that I personally track (excluding lower end condos and higher end SFRs), but it does track every sale of SFRs below $900k in the market. (I do actually track some above $900k for kicks and giggles, and finally one of them sold, on the ocean view street of Aviemore in far-west CM).

The CS values dropped dramatically this month, for the first time in a year! The really nice stuff on the east side and Mesa Verde dropped below 200 for the first time, some nice stuff as far as 160, and the lower end of the SFR market dropped into the 150s and 140s, quite a shock after a year of not moving much at all.

I'm now wondering if this isn't the sign of capitulation from both the banks (the sales were 50% REOs) and owners (the other half of the sellers appear to have had equity, though with MEW, who knows...).

Does this portend another 20pt drop in the CS for January? Will CM be down to CS 100 by the summer?

Time will tell...
 
Costa Mesa CS index dive moves upscale!


Case-Schiller for Costa Mesa
SFR <$900k, a few nice condos

Month.......Sales.......Price.......SE..........CS=.........SEM....................................equivalent date
JFM:............15.........479.........22.......182............8.........(limited dataset).............Feb 2004
April:...........10.........491.........14.......188............7.........(limited dataset).............Mar 2004
May:............27.........532.........15.......184............5..............................................Mar 2004
June:...........26.........548.........21.......181............5..............................................Feb 2004
July:............37.........516.........17.......184 ...........5..............................................Mar 2004
Aug:............47.........548.........15.......191............5..............................................Apr 2004
Sept:...........37.........548.........23.......177............4..............................................Jan 2004
Oct:.............39.........538.........20.......180............4..............................................Feb 2004
Nov..............29.........518.........25.......180............6..............................................Feb 2004
Dec...............40........460.........16.......162............3..............................................Aug 2003
Jan............20........516........27......161..........4.............................................Aug 2003


Unlike the frenzied media reports, sales volume in CM fell back below the pace of last spring, while prices, both the mean ($516k) and the median ($540k) moved up, suggesting that it is no longer the "low end" houses that are seeing a significant discount in CM. The mean is of course biased by the houses that I personally track (excluding lower end condos and higher end SFRs), but it does track every sale of SFRs below $900k in the market. (I do actually track some above $900k for kicks and giggles, but none of them sold in the past month).

The CS values maintained the dramatic drop of 20 points from last month. The really nice stuff on the east side didn't sell and Mesa Verde dropped to 180-ish for the first time, some nice stuff as far as 160, and the lower end of the SFR market stayed mostly in the 150s and 140s, but a few sales as low as 120 appeared.

Signs of capitulation from both the banks continue (20% REOs, 30% Short sales) and owners (the other half of the sellers appear to have had equity, though with MEW, who knows...In fact, 35% of total sales were by owners who had purchased prior to 1997).

So we did not see another 20pt drop for the CMCS in January, but the move up of the decline in the market price-point is encouraging. Next to come will be a thawing of sales on the East side...

Time will tell...
 
Costa Mesa CS index continues its moves upscale!


Case-Schiller for Costa Mesa
all SFR , a few nice condos

Month.......Sales.......Price.......SE..........CS=.........SEM....................................equivalent date
JFM:............15.........479.........22.......182............8.........(limited dataset).............Feb 2004
April:...........10.........491.........14.......188............7.........(limited dataset).............Mar 2004
May:............27.........532.........15.......184............5..............................................Mar 2004
June:...........26.........548.........21.......181............5..............................................Feb 2004
July:............37.........516.........17.......184 ...........5..............................................Mar 2004
Aug:............47.........548.........15.......191............5..............................................Apr 2004
Sept:...........37.........548.........23.......177............4..............................................Jan 2004
Oct:.............39.........538.........20.......180............4..............................................Feb 2004
Nov..............29.........518.........25.......180............6..............................................Feb 2004
Dec...............40........460.........16.......162............3..............................................Aug 2003
Jan...............20.........516.........27.......161............4.............................................Aug 2003
Feb............28........553........33......167..........4.............................................Sept 2003

Unlike the frenzied media reports, sales volume in CM remained below the pace of last summer, while prices, both the mean ($564k) and the median ($553k) moved up, and in fact there were few sales in the "bad" part of CM, and only 3 "good" condo sales. The SFRs on the "good" part of the eastside (closer to 17th than the airport) continue to sit months and months, even with more frequent $25k to $50k price reductions happening on a monthly basis.

The CS values inched up a few points from last month, which I think reflects the 'nicer' mix of houses, many of which had upgrades which are hard to account for using the CS past sales mechanism. There were a number of sales this month in the nicer "islands" like the ocean view point and the gated communities around south coast and the SA golf course, as well as continuing strong sales in Mesa Verde and the college park areas, all of which hit the 170s to 190s range. There were even a number of sales in the northern half of the east-side (above 22nd street). The few sales in the "bad" part of CM went as low as CS=102 (653 Surf) up to 156 (2127 Wallace).

Signs of capitulation from both the banks continue (20% REOs, 20% Short sales) and owners who had equity (many of whom purchased in the 90s, though caveats about HELOCs still apply) are certainly encouraging.

Again we see no dramatic 20pt drop for the CMCS in February, but the move up of the decline in the market price-point is encouraging. Now that it looks as if the east side is starting to move, maybe we will see the 40% off sales for the nicest properties this spring... (Though I'm sure Irvine will remain immune, eh?)

Time will tell...
 
Costa Mesa CS index continues its moves backwards!


Case-Schiller for Costa Mesa
all SFR , a few nice condos

Month.......Sales.......Price.......SE..........CS=.........SEM....................................equivalent date
JFM:............15.........479.........22.......182............8.........(limited dataset).............Feb 2004
April:...........10.........491.........14.......188............7.........(limited dataset).............Mar 2004
May:............27.........532.........15.......184............5..............................................Mar 2004
June:...........26.........548.........21.......181............5..............................................Feb 2004
July:............37.........516.........17.......184 ...........5..............................................Mar 2004
Aug:............47.........548.........15.......191............5..............................................Apr 2004
Sept:...........37.........548.........23.......177............4..............................................Jan 2004
Oct:.............39.........538.........20.......180............4..............................................Feb 2004
Nov..............29.........518.........25.......180............6..............................................Feb 2004
Dec...............40........460.........16.......162............3..............................................Aug 2003
Jan...............20.........516.........27.......161............4.............................................Aug 2003
Feb..............28.........553..........33.......167............4.............................................Sept 2003
Mar............43........510........43......179..........5.............................................Jan 2004

Amazingly agreeing with the frenzied media reports, sales volume in CM has shown a huge "spring bounce", while prices, both the mean ($529k) and the median ($510k) moved down, even though there were few sales in the "bad" part of CM, and only 3 "good" condo sales. The SFRs on the "good" part of the eastside (below 22nd street and adjacent NPB) continue to sit months and months, even with more frequent $25k to $50k price reductions happening on a monthly basis.

The CS values shot up from last month, which I think reflects the 'nicer' mix of houses, many of which had upgrades which are hard to account for using the CS past sales mechanism. There were more sales this month in the nicer "islands" like the around south coast and the SA golf course (mostly in the CS=180s), as well as continuing strong sales in Mesa Verde and the college park areas (CS=180-200)and increasing sales in the "upper east side" (airplane noise much?, but nonetheless CS=200s). The few sales in the "bad" part of CM went from the 110s to the 150s, depending on how much granite was installed.

Signs of capitulation from both the banks continue (13 REOs, 10 Short sales). Three of the REOs had originally been listed as short sales, which were subsequently foreclosed upon and sold. But the banks are taking a big hit, it seems, with the average discount from the previous sold prices for these properties being 35% (and who knows about the HELOCs, eh?)

Again, the vast majority of apparent "in the money" sellers/owners were selling for 200%-500% of their previous purchase price from the 80s and 90s (again...who knows about HELOCs) and it appears based on the flurry of non-distressed listings popping up in the past weeks that older owners are looking on the spring as the time to CASH OUT!

Soo...Nicer properties moving, sending the CS up. Cheaper properties seem to be much slower than last year, perhaps reflecting the end of the sub-prime FCs and the start of the Prime/Alt-A/etc impending wave. But the biggest factor in the market right now seems to be long established owners cashing out (half the market!)

What's next?....Time will tell...

(PS sorry this is so late. For some reason, Redfin just posted the 3/31 solds today)
 
Costa Mesa CS index resumes its march downwards


Case-Schiller for Costa Mesa
all SFR , a few nice condos

Month.......Sales.......Price.......SE..........CS=.........SEM....................................equivalent date
JFM:............15.........479.........22.......182............8.........(limited dataset).............Feb 2004
April:...........10.........491.........14.......188............7.........(limited dataset).............Mar 2004
May:............27.........532.........15.......184............5..............................................Mar 2004
June:...........26.........548.........21.......181............5..............................................Feb 2004
July:............37.........516.........17.......184 ...........5..............................................Mar 2004
Aug:............47.........548.........15.......191............5..............................................Apr 2004
Sept:...........37.........548.........23.......177............4..............................................Jan 2004
Oct:.............39.........538.........20.......180............4..............................................Feb 2004
Nov..............29.........518.........25.......180............6..............................................Feb 2004
Dec...............40........460.........16.......162............3..............................................Aug 2003
Jan...............20.........516.........27.......161............4.............................................Aug 2003
Feb..............28.........553..........33.......167............4.............................................Sept 2003
Mar..............43.........510.........43........179............5.............................................Jan 2004
Apr............45........520........19......172..........4.............................................Dec 2003

The "spring bounce" is going great guns in Costa Mesa, with the highest total sales in a year, while prices, both the mean ($517k) and the median ($520k) dance around where they've been all year. There continue to be few sales in the "bad" part of CM, perhaps reflecting the end of the "subprime wave" on the West side. One big change is that there were six sales of PUDs on the east side (CS= 190--226). The SFRs on the "good" part of the eastside (below 22nd street and adjacent NPB) continue to sit months and months, even with more frequent $25k to $50k price reductions happening on a monthly basis.

The CS values slipped back downwards, but not yet back to the winter level. Sales continued this month in the nicer "islands" like the around south coast and the SA golf course (mostly in the CS=180s), as well as continuing strong sales in Mesa Verde and the college park areas (CS=160-210). Sales on the "upper east side" (rather than Park avenue of the original, though, you get SNA to rumble your windows, continue but this month they were older houses on bigger yard, and equity sales.

The few sales in the "bad" part of CM went from the 116 (Seal), 131 (Miner and Darrell), and amazingly 155 (Republic) and 160 (Pomona), depending on how much granite was installed.

Signs of capitulation from both the banks continue (12 REOs, 12 Short sales). This month, five of the REOs had originally been listed as short sales, which were subsequently foreclosed upon and sold. It is getting harder to figure out how bad the banks are getting spanked on these, though as there are many more sales that appear to have equity based on the redfin records and the prices the banks are buying them at the auction (but who knows about the HELOCs on the short sales...).

One new phenomenon this month is that a few builders are taking big hits and getting rid of inventory of new construction (PUDs on the east side). 3 sales this month, each 30% off "MSRP". Looks like they finally figured out they have to do what they have to do to move the inventory before that granite starts looking like avocado appliances.

There are very few long time owners getting their houses sold this month. only 4 of the 45 sales were clearly "in the money" and many of the sellers look to be escaping by the skin of their teeth from early 2000s purchases. In fact, many of the apparent "equity sellers" are selling at 100%-150% or purchase price, and the listing describe upgrades (and how many of those were paid from earnings versus HELOCs?).

Soo...Nicer properties continue to sell, but the CS is stagnant or moving down. Cheaper properties are mostly gone from the market, perhaps reflecting the end of the sub-prime FCs. Long established owners are cashing out (half the market!), but they are no longer reaping big rewards, but mostly squeeking out at a price that will probably pay off their HELOCs

What's next?....Time will tell...

(PS sorry this is so late. For some reason, Redfin just posted the 4/30 solds Wednesday)
 
Costa Mesa CS index shows the dead cat bounce has some legs


Case-Schiller for Costa Mesa
all SFR , a few nice condos

Month.......Sales.......Price.......SE..........CS=.........SEM....................................equivalent date
JFM:............15.........479.........22.......182............8.........(limited dataset).............Feb 2004
April:...........10.........491.........14.......188............7.........(limited dataset).............Mar 2004
May:............27.........532.........15.......184............5..............................................Mar 2004
June:...........26.........548.........21.......181............5..............................................Feb 2004
July:............37.........516.........17.......184 ...........5..............................................Mar 2004
Aug:............47.........548.........15.......191............5..............................................Apr 2004
Sept:...........37.........548.........23.......177............4..............................................Jan 2004
Oct:.............39.........538.........20.......180............4..............................................Feb 2004
Nov..............29.........518.........25.......180............6..............................................Feb 2004
Dec...............40........460.........16.......162............3..............................................Aug 2003
Jan...............20.........516.........27.......161............4.............................................Aug 2003
Feb..............28.........553..........33.......167............4.............................................Sept 2003
Mar..............43.........510.........43........179............5.............................................Jan 2004
Apr..............45.........520.........19.........172...........4..............................................Dec 2003
May............47........535........28......176..........4.............................................Dec 2003

The "spring bounce" is holding steady in Costa Mesa, with the highest total sales in a year(again), while the median ($535k) dances around where its been all year (but this month the mean shot up to $570k reflecting some pricey east-side sales). The CS values have basically not moved in over a year.

There continue to be fewer and fewer sales in the "bad" part of CM, perhaps reflecting the end of the "subprime wave" on the West side. One big change is that the PUDs on the east side have gone from a few to a flood, 20% of all sales (10). The SFRs on the "good" part of the eastside (below 22nd street and adjacent NPB) continue to sit months and months, even with more frequent $25k to $50k price reductions happening on a monthly basis, though three truly prime (~$1M) houses did sell, one at 95% of list, one at 85% of list, and one at 70% of list (both CS ~=210). In addition, a few lower priced (smaller/older) prime east side sales occurred (mostly $500s). Continuing strong sales in Mesa Verde and the college park areas (CS=160-210) have trickled in. Sales on the "upper east side" (rather than Park avenue of the original, though, you get SNA to rumble your windows, continue but this month they were older houses on bigger yard, and equity sales.

Signs of capitulation from both the banks continue (6 REOs, 13 Short sales). But clearly the supply of REOs is running thin, as they've halved, from 25% of total sales down to 12%. It is getting harder to figure out how bad the banks are getting spanked on these, though as there are many more sales that appear to have equity based on the redfin records and the prices the banks are buying them at the auction (but who knows about the HELOCs on the short sales...).

There are more long time owners getting their houses sold this month. only 8 of the 45 sales were clearly "in the money" and yet of the remaining "non-distressed sales, many of the sellers look to be escaping by the skin of their teeth from early 2000s purchases. In fact, many of the apparent "equity sellers" are selling at 100%-150% or purchase price, and the listing describe upgrades (and how many of those were paid from earnings versus HELOCs?).

Soo...dead cat continues to bounce, and most of the houses are moving through the escrow process quickly this spring, though about 25% of escrows seem to be falling out before making it to the finish line lately.

What's next?....Time will tell...
 
Costa Mesa CS index shows the dead cat is full of superballs


Case-Schiller for Costa Mesa
all SFR , and PUDs (condo/detached)

Month.......Sales.......Price.......SE..........CS=.........SEM....................................equivalent date
JFM:............15.........479.........22.......182............8.........(limited dataset).............Feb 2004
April:...........10.........491.........14.......188............7.........(limited dataset).............Mar 2004
May:............27.........532.........15.......184............5..............................................Mar 2004
June:...........26.........548.........21.......181............5..............................................Feb 2004
July:............37.........516.........17.......184 ...........5..............................................Mar 2004
Aug:............47.........548.........15.......191............5..............................................Apr 2004
Sept:...........37.........548.........23.......177............4..............................................Jan 2004
Oct:.............39.........538.........20.......180............4..............................................Feb 2004
Nov..............29.........518.........25.......180............6..............................................Feb 2004
Dec...............40........460.........16.......162............3..............................................Aug 2003
Jan...............20.........516.........27.......161............4.............................................Aug 2003
Feb..............28.........553..........33.......167............4.............................................Sept 2003
Mar..............43.........510.........43........179............5.............................................Jan 2004
Apr..............45.........520.........19.........172...........4..............................................Dec 2003
May..............47.........535.........28........176...........4..............................................Dec 2003
June...........59........550........17......176..........3.............................................Dec 2003


The "spring bounce" is holding steady in Costa Mesa, with the highest total sales in a year(for the fourth increase in a row!), while the median ($550k) shows continued growth and the closely aligned mean ($551k) indicates how tight the sales prices were (range $350-$875). The CS values have basically not moved in over a year.

There continue to be fewer and fewer sales in the "bad" part of CM (5), suggesting the end of the "subprime wave" on the West side (and the new listings in this area are largely nicer, i.e. garages not converted). The surge of sales of condos/PUDs on the east side has only increased this month, from 20% to 30% of all sales (18). The nice condos on the west bluffs are still barely moving, in contrast (only 2 sales).

Higher priced SFRs on the "good" part of the eastside (below 22nd street and adjacent NPB) continue to sit months and months, even with more frequent $25k to $50k price reductions happening on a monthly basis, and a number have been foreclosed on (mostly shorts going to the bank). A few lower priced (smaller/older) prime east side sales occurred ($500s to $700s, CS 175-200). Continuing strong sales in Mesa Verde and the college park areas (CS=160-210) have trickled in, as well as more in the SouthCoast district in the same CS range.

Signs of capitulation from both the banks continue (12 REOs, 12 Short sales). I said last month that the supply of REOs was running thin, but in fact, they've picked up percentage-wise. The banks have also been really moving the REOs, as most go from listed to sold in a month. Quite a contrast from earlier in the year when they were listing them high, and going through several months of price chopping before finding a buyer.

There are more long time owners getting their houses sold this month. Twelve of the 59 sales were clearly "in the money" (10x tax basis) and yet of the remaining "non-distressed sales (22/59), many of the sellers look to be escaping by the skin of their teeth from early 2000s purchases (100% to 250% of their tax basis). In fact, for most of this class of apparent "equity sellers" the listing describe upgrades (and how many of those were paid from earnings versus HELOCs?).

Soo...another month, and the dead cat continues to bounce.

What's next?....Time will tell...
 
Has the Costa Mesa CS index topped out?


Case-Schiller for Costa Mesa
all SFR , and PUDs (condo/detached)

Month.......Sales.......Price.......SE..........CS=.........SEM....................................equivalent date
JFM:............15.........479.........22.......182............8.........(limited dataset).............Feb 2004
April:...........10.........491.........14.......188............7.........(limited dataset).............Mar 2004
May:............27.........532.........15.......184............5..............................................Mar 2004
June:...........26.........548.........21.......181............5..............................................Feb 2004
July:............37.........516.........17.......184 ...........5..............................................Mar 2004
Aug:............47.........548.........15.......191............5..............................................Apr 2004
Sept:...........37.........548.........23.......177............4..............................................Jan 2004
Oct:.............39.........538.........20.......180............4..............................................Feb 2004
Nov..............29.........518.........25.......180............6..............................................Feb 2004
Dec...............40........460.........16.......162............3..............................................Aug 2003
Jan...............20.........516.........27.......161............4.............................................Aug 2003
Feb..............28.........553..........33.......167............4.............................................Sept 2003
Mar..............43.........510.........43........179............5.............................................Jan 2004
Apr..............45.........520.........19.........172...........4..............................................Dec 2003
May..............47.........535.........28........176...........4..............................................Dec 2003
June.............59.........550.........17........176...........3..............................................Dec 2003
July...........42........526........24......175..........3.............................................Dec 2003


Is the "spring bounce" ending in Costa Mesa? Total sales dropped back down to winter levels, while the median ($526k) has also notched back down, while the mean ($552k) was sustained due to a few high priced houses ($1125k, $843k, $795k). Excluding those, the sales prices were tight again (range $339-$720k). But at CS=175, the CS values have basically not moved in over a year.

There continue to be fewer and fewer sales in the "bad" part of CM (4, three of them REOs, $360k, $367k, $380k, $339k), suggesting the end of the "subprime wave" on the West side. The surge of sales of condos/PUDs on the east side has edged up again this month, from 30% to 33% of all sales (14). In contrast, the nice condos on the west bluffs are still barely moving (only 1 sale this month).

Higher priced SFRs on the "good" part of the eastside (below 22nd street and adjacent NPB) have started trickling through (four sales), but the CS values are hard to place on these, as they have apparently been significantly expanded since the last sales. A few lower priced (smaller/older) prime east side sales occurred ($500s to $700s, CS 175-200). Continuing strong sales in Mesa Verde and the college park areas (CS=160-210) have trickled in, as well as more in the SouthCoast district in the same CS range.

Signs of capitulation from both the banks continue, but short sales are now declining rapidly, and 4 of the 13 REO sales were failed short sale attempts, suggesting the banks are getting slightly more aggressive taking back from deadbeats (13 REOs, 4 Short sales total). In addition, there were two FLIPs that sold which had previously been REO'd and one new construction sale. Overall, at 20 of the 42 sales, must-sell products represents almost half of the market.

Long time owners getting out dropped way off this month. Only three of the 42 sales were clearly "in the money" (all >20x tax basis) and yet of the remaining "non-distressed sales (9/42), many of the sellers look to be escaping by the skin of their teeth from early 2000s purchases (100% to 230% of their tax basis). Once again, for most of this class of apparent "equity sellers" the listing describe upgrades (and how many of those were paid from earnings versus HELOCs?).

Soo...another month, is the dead cat on its way back down to earth?

What's next?....Time will tell...
 
Late reporters push sales back to peak in July


Case-Schiller for Costa Mesa
all SFR , and PUDs (condo/detached)

Month.......Sales.......Price.......SE..........CS=.........SEM....................................equivalent date
JFM:............15.........479.........22.......182............8.........(limited dataset).............Feb 2004
April:...........10.........491.........14.......188............7.........(limited dataset).............Mar 2004
May:............27.........532.........15.......184............5..............................................Mar 2004
June:...........26.........548.........21.......181............5..............................................Feb 2004
July:............37.........516.........17.......184 ...........5..............................................Mar 2004
Aug:............47.........548.........15.......191............5..............................................Apr 2004
Sept:...........37.........548.........23.......177............4..............................................Jan 2004
Oct:.............39.........538.........20.......180............4..............................................Feb 2004
Nov..............29.........518.........25.......180............6..............................................Feb 2004
Dec...............40........460.........16.......162............3..............................................Aug 2003
Jan...............20.........516.........27.......161............4.............................................Aug 2003
Feb..............28.........553..........33.......167............4.............................................Sept 2003
Mar..............43.........510.........43........179............5.............................................Jan 2004
Apr..............45.........520.........19.........172...........4..............................................Dec 2003
May..............47.........535.........28........176...........4..............................................Dec 2003
June.............59.........550.........17........176...........3..............................................Dec 2003
July?.?.?58?.?.525?.?.22??176?.??3?.?.?.?.?.?.?.?.?.?.?..Dec 2003

I initially wrote:

Is the "spring bounce" ending in Costa Mesa? Total sales dropped back down to winter levels, while the median ($526k) has also notched back down, while the mean ($552k) was sustained due to a few high priced houses ($1125k, $843k, $795k). Excluding those, the sales prices were tight again (range $339-$720k). But at CS=175, the CS values have basically not moved in over a year.

But there were a bunch of late reporting sales that boosted the total sales back up near 60, the peak volume for the 18 months.



Finally, sorry for the delayed updates, but we moved to a (rented) condo in AV (Laguna Audubon) and have a new addition to the family, so sleep is at a premium now!
 
Riding the sales wave up-market in Costa Mesa plus a few NPB sales this month!


Case-Schiller for Costa Mesa
all SFR , and PUDs (condo/detached)

Month.......Sales.......Price.......SE..........CS=.........SEM....................................equivalent date
JFM:............15.........479.........22.......182............8.........(limited dataset).............Feb 2004
April:...........10.........491.........14.......188............7.........(limited dataset).............Mar 2004
May:............27.........532.........15.......184............5..............................................Mar 2004
June:...........26.........548.........21.......181............5..............................................Feb 2004
July:............37.........516.........17.......184 ...........5..............................................Mar 2004
Aug:............47.........548.........15.......191............5..............................................Apr 2004
Sept:...........37.........548.........23.......177............4..............................................Jan 2004
Oct:.............39.........538.........20.......180............4..............................................Feb 2004
Nov..............29.........518.........25.......180............6..............................................Feb 2004
Dec...............40........460.........16.......162............3..............................................Aug 2003
Jan...............20.........516.........27.......161............4.............................................Aug 2003
Feb..............28.........553..........33.......167............4.............................................Sept 2003
Mar..............43.........510.........43........179............5.............................................Jan 2004
Apr..............45.........520.........19.........172...........4..............................................Dec 2003
May..............47.........535.........28........176...........4..............................................Dec 2003
June.............59.........550.........17........176...........3..............................................Dec 2003
July?.?.?..?.58?.?.525?.?..22???176??..??3?.?.?.?.?.??.?..???.?.?..Dec 2003
Aug..?.? ..60?.?.560?.?.30??170?.??4?.?.?.?.?.?.?.?.?.?..Nov 2003


Wow, the sales continue to pour in at the end of the summer in CM! August sales continued at peak levels (60 total sales) does $8k really mean that much when you are paying $600k for the house?), and the median ($613k) matched the mean ($560k) so far as hitting peak values for the year, this month not so much due to a few high priced outliers, but due to the disappearance of the lower end of the market. While there were again some mega prices (3 sales over $1M), the surprising thing is that the previously constipated east-side sales have broken loose, and comprise almost half of all sales this month. Despite this onslaught of sales of the "better half" of the inventory, the CS=170, the CS values have dropped slightly.

The bottom of the market for SFRs in CM has moved from being the highly "ethnic" west-side to the more monochromatic Mesa North and state street areas. The surge of sales of condos/PUDs on the east side has basically ended, dropping from 33% to 12% of all sales (7). The other variety of sales that is starting to trickle in is the R2/R3 sales (4 sales).

Higher priced SFRs on the "good" part of the eastside (below 22nd street and adjacent NPB) are really picking up (12 sales versus 4 last month), but the CS values on the best of these are hard to place on these, as they have apparently been significantly expanded since the last sales. A few lower priced (smaller/older) prime east side sales occurred ($500s to $700s, CS 175-200). Continuing strong sales in Mesa Verde and the college park areas (CS=160-210) have trickled in, as well as more in the SouthCoast district in the same CS range.

On a more personal note, one of my "if I win the lottery" houses on Aviemore (great ocean views, 1/4 ac, 3000sf just renovated) sold for $1.6M (<!-- m -->http://www.flaney.com/CA/Costa-Mesa/116 ... a/S555796/<!-- m -->)

Signs of capitulation from both the banks continue, short sales are back up (9 sales) as they look to move the potential FCs, and 5 of the 14 REO sales were failed short sale attempts, suggesting the banks are getting slightly more aggressive taking back from deadbeats. In addition, there were two new house sales and one obvious FLIP that sold, in addition to one "normal" estate sale. Overall, at 26 of the 60 sales, must-sell products continue to represent almost half of the market.

Long time owners getting out picked back up this month. Eight of the sales were clearly "in the money" (all >10x tax basis), 14/60 were probably in the money (200% to 500% of previous sale, and yet of the remaining "non-distressed sales (22/60), many of the sellers may be escaping by the skin of their teeth from early 2000s purchases (80% to 200% of their previous sale price). Once again, for most of this class of apparent "equity sellers", and even most of the 200% to 500% class, the listing describe upgrades (and how many of those were paid from earnings versus HELOCs?).

Finally, I've been tracking listings and sales in 92663 and 92660 when they drop under $1M or so. There haven't really been more than a few sales, but this month there were 4 sales in west newport (three in newport shores). Not surprisingly, the median price was high and wobbly due to the small sample $845k (+/-$113k). Much more surprisingly, the CS=173 (+/-3), was not high, nor wobbly!


Soo...another month, is this the breakthrough into the "good inventory?

What's next?....Time will tell...
 
September....Stasis in up-market in Costa Mesa plus a few NPB sales this month!


Case-Schiller for Costa Mesa
all SFR , and PUDs (condo/detached)

Month.......Sales.......Price.......SE..........CS=.........SEM....................................equivalent date
JFM:............15.........479.........22.......182............8.........(limited dataset).............Feb 2004
April:...........10.........491.........14.......188............7.........(limited dataset).............Mar 2004
May:............27.........532.........15.......184............5..............................................Mar 2004
June:...........26.........548.........21.......181............5..............................................Feb 2004
July:............37.........516.........17.......184 ...........5..............................................Mar 2004
Aug:............47.........548.........15.......191............5..............................................Apr 2004
Sept:...........37.........548.........23.......177............4..............................................Jan 2004
Oct:.............39.........538.........20.......180............4..............................................Feb 2004
Nov..............29.........518.........25.......180............6..............................................Feb 2004
Dec...............40........460.........16.......162............3..............................................Aug 2003
Jan...............20.........516.........27.......161............4.............................................Aug 2003
Feb..............28.........553..........33.......167............4.............................................Sept 2003
Mar..............43.........510.........43........179............5.............................................Jan 2004
Apr..............45.........520.........19.........172...........4..............................................Dec 2003
May..............47.........535.........28........176...........4..............................................Dec 2003
June.............59.........550.........17........176...........3..............................................Dec 2003
July?.?.?.?.58.?.?.525?.?..22???176??..??3?.?.?.?.?.??.?..???.?.?..Dec 2003
Aug..?.? ?..60.?.?.560?..?.30?..?170??.??4?.?.?.?.?.?.??....?.?.?..Nov 2003
Sept..?.?..53?.?.556??.21??180?.?5?.?.?.?.?.?.?.?.?.?..Jan 2004


And still the CS bubbles along, and sales stay quite high at the end of the summer in CM! September sales dropped a smidge (53 total sales) but stayed high, and the median ($578k) as well as the mean ($556k) indicate that nice stuff is moving in Costa Mesa. There were no mega priced sales this month, despite six of the now sold listings initially hitting the market at asking prices over $1M. There were also very few sales under $400k, but a tight clustering of prices around the $500k range.

Sales have moved in the past few months in CM. Now, more than half of the sales are in the "nice" parts of CM (east side/mesa verde). The bottom of the market for SFRs in CM has moved from being the highly "ethnic" west-side to the more monochromatic Mesa North and state street areas. The surge of sales of condos/PUDs on the east side continues to slow, being only about 20% of the market this month. R2/R3 sales continue to trickle in (4 sales again this month).

Capitulation from the banks continues to pick up!, short sales are up again (from 9 sales last month to 15 this month) as they look to move the potential FCs, and 3 of the 14 REO sales were failed short sale attempts, suggesting the banks remain more aggressive taking back from deadbeats. This month, continuing the trend, there was one new house and one obvious FLIP that sold. Overall, at 29 of the 53 sales, must-sell products are now more than half of the market.

Long time owners getting out picked up this month. Five of the sales were clearly "in the money" (all >7x tax basis), 11/53 were probably in the money (200% to 500% of previous sale, and yet of the remaining "non-distressed sales (19/53), many of the sellers may be escaping by the skin of their teeth from early 2000s purchases (80% to 200% of their previous sale price). Once again, for most of this class of apparent "equity sellers", and even most of the 200% to 500% class, the listing describe upgrades (and how many of those were paid from earnings versus HELOCs?). This means that two thirds of sellers may have had equity, but probably only one third actually did.

Finally, I've been tracking listings and sales in 92663 and 92660 when they drop under $1M or so. This month there were 2 sales on balboa peninsula. Not surprisingly, the median price was high ~ $900k). This month, the CS =~230, fwiw?.


Soo...another month, and we have definitely broken into the "good inventory. I guess those optionARMs are starting to implode in CM

What's next?....Time will tell...
 
October?.Where did you go, REO????


Case-Schiller for Costa Mesa
all SFR , and PUDs (condo/detached)

Month.......Sales.......Price.......SE..........CS=.........SEM....................................equivalent date
JFM:............15.........479.........22.......182............8.........(limited dataset).............Feb 2004
April:...........10.........491.........14.......188............7.........(limited dataset).............Mar 2004
May:............27.........532.........15.......184............5..............................................Mar 2004
June:...........26.........548.........21.......181............5..............................................Feb 2004
July:............37.........516.........17.......184 ...........5..............................................Mar 2004
Aug:............47.........548.........15.......191............5..............................................Apr 2004
Sept:...........37.........548.........23.......177............4..............................................Jan 2004
Oct:.............39.........538.........20.......180............4..............................................Feb 2004
Nov..............29.........518.........25.......180............6..............................................Feb 2004
Dec...............40........460.........16.......162............3..............................................Aug 2003
Jan...............20.........516.........27.......161............4.............................................Aug 2003
Feb..............28.........553..........33.......167............4.............................................Sept 2003
Mar..............43.........510.........43........179............5.............................................Jan 2004
Apr..............45.........520.........19.........172...........4..............................................Dec 2003
May..............47.........535.........28........176...........4..............................................Dec 2003
June.............59.........550.........17........176...........3..............................................Dec 2003
July?.?.?.?.58.?.?.525?.?..22???176??..??3?.?.?.?.?.??.?..???.?.?..Dec 2003
Aug..?.? ?..60.?.?.560???.30?..?170?????4?.?.?.???..?.???.?.?.?..Nov 2003
Sept..??.?..53?..?.556??.?21?..?180?.??.?5?.?.?.?..?..??.?.?.?.?.?..Jan 2004
Oct..?.?..40?.?.604??.25??176???5?.?.?.?.?.?...?.?.?.?..Dec 2003


As the Fall rolls in to SoCal, it looks as if the normal seasonal drop in the number of sales has appeared in CM (despite the NAR extorted $8k 'gift' driving sales? October sales dropped a 25% (40 total sales), and the median ($563k) as well as the continuing high mean sales price ($604k) indicate that nice stuff is moving in Costa Mesa. Despite seven of this month's sold listings having last sold at over $1M (pay too much during the bubble perhaps?), all were short sales, and three of those initially listed at over $1M. Of that high priced inventory, there was only one sale priced above $1M this month. There were also only 3 sales under $400k, but a tight clustering of prices around the $500k range.

The best parts of CM are now selling. More than half of the sales are in the east side of CM. High end Mesa Verde ($750k-$1M) are also starting to move, at a similar discount as on the east side. The bottom of the market for SFRs in CM continues to be the more monochromatic Mesa North and state street areas, rather than the highly "ethnic" west-side (only one sale this month). The surge of sales of condos/PUDs on the east side continues to slow, being only about 25% of the market this month (10 sales). R2/R3 sales continue to trickle in (5 sales again this month).

The banks are moving the short sales!, as short sales are up again (from 28% to 33% of all sales this month) as they look to move the potential FCs, but there were only three REOs this month (down from 14 last month), one a failed short sale!. This month there was only one new house that sold. At 18 of the 40 sales, must-sell products continue to be half of the market.

Long time owners getting out picked up this month. Nine of the sales were clearly "in the money" (all >7x tax basis), 11/40 were probably in the money (200% to 500% of previous sale, and yet of the remaining "non-distressed sales (4/40), many of the sellers may be escaping by the skin of their teeth from early 2000s purchases (80% to 200% of their previous sale price). Once again, for most of this class of apparent "equity sellers", and even most of the 200% to 500% class, the listing describe upgrades (and how many of those were paid from earnings versus HELOCs?). This means that half of the sellers were getting out while the getting is still good.

Finally, I've been tracking listings and sales in 92663 and 92660 when they drop under $1M or so. This month there were no sales in that range, fwiw?.


Soo...another month, and we have in the "good inventory. I guess those optionARMs are imploding in CM, but the banks are stalling/sitting/hiding all the REOs

What's next?....Time will tell...
 
November?.only the old sell at a profit


Case-Schiller for Costa Mesa
all SFR , and PUDs (condo/detached)

Month.......Sales.......Price.......SE..........CS=.........SEM....................................equivalent date
JFM:............15.........479.........22.......182............8.........(limited dataset).............Feb 2004
April:...........10.........491.........14.......188............7.........(limited dataset).............Mar 2004
May:............27.........532.........15.......184............5..............................................Mar 2004
June:...........26.........548.........21.......181............5..............................................Feb 2004
July:............37.........516.........17.......184 ...........5..............................................Mar 2004
Aug:............47.........548.........15.......191............5..............................................Apr 2004
Sept:...........37.........548.........23.......177............4..............................................Jan 2004
Oct:.............39.........538.........20.......180............4..............................................Feb 2004
Nov..............29.........518.........25.......180............6..............................................Feb 2004
Dec...............40........460.........16.......162............3..............................................Aug 2003
Jan...............20.........516.........27.......161............4.............................................Aug 2003
Feb..............28.........553..........33.......167............4.............................................Sept 2003
Mar..............43.........510.........43........179............5.............................................Jan 2004
Apr..............45.........520.........19.........172...........4..............................................Dec 2003
May..............47.........535.........28........176...........4..............................................Dec 2003
June.............59.........550.........17........176...........3..............................................Dec 2003
July?.?..?.?.58.?..?.525?..?..22??..?176??..??3?.?.?.?.?.??.?..???..?.?.?..Dec 2003
Aug..?.?..?..60.?..?.560?.??.30??.?170??.???4?.?.?.???..?.???.???.?.?..Nov 2003
Sept..??..?..53???.556?..?.?21??.?180?..??.?5?.?.?.?..?..??.?.?.....?.?.?..Jan 2004
Oct..????..40???..604??..?.25.???176?????5?.?.??.?.?.???.????...?.?..Dec 2003
Nov..?..?..48?.?.559???.25?..?173??..?4?.?.?.??.???.?.???..?..Dec 2003


November sales are October offers that made it into escrow in time to get the FedGov's $8k bribe. October sales rebounded, but not to the summer heights (48 total sales), and the while the median ($530k) as well as mean sales price ($559k) have dropped a tad, they still indicate that nice stuff is moving in Costa Mesa. Of the 18 sales of houses which were previously bought for more than $500k, only 3 weren't REO or short sales, and every house who's last sale was in 2004 or later was either a short sale or REO.

The banks are moving the short sales (11) and REOs have come back up (8). Again this month there was only one new house that sold. At 21 of the 48 sales, must-sell products finally dropped to less than half of the market.

Long time owners getting out picked up this month. Six of the sales were clearly "in the money" (all >15x tax basis, all purchased in the 70s probably), 10/48 were probably in the money (200% to 500% of previous sale, and yet of the remaining "non-distressed sales (12/48), many of the sellers may be escaping by the skin of their teeth from early 2000s purchases (80% to 200% of their previous sale price). Once again, for most of this class of apparent "equity sellers", and even most of the 200% to 500% class, the listing describe upgrades (and how many of those were paid from earnings versus HELOCs?). Only 2 sellers were well into the money on their sales (300% plus tax basis) who had not owned since the 70s

Finally, I've been tracking listings and sales in 92663 and 92660 when they drop under $1M or so. This month there were two sales in that range in each zip?.


Soo...another month, and volume/prices have bounced, but not back up to the summer heights?more spring-like

What's next?....Time will tell...
 
OK, this is going to be a dumb question, but does the CS reflect median prices? Aug has a median $1K higher but CS is a month earlier, so it seems that the index isn't purely median price driven. The median is very deceiving in CM right now due to the East Side finally coming down. It still seems quite pricey, but people seem to be buying over there.

What do you think this property is worth. Crap, I'm in quick reply so can't post it as a hyperlink. It's kind of a mess, but that sized lot over in that neighborhood seems to be a good price. Of course it's a short sale, so I guess the listing price is fairly meaningless. The flight path is a big draw back, but being able to just walk to back bay is really nice.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Costa-Mesa/2604-Willo-Ln-92627/home/4632991
 
CS is not the median sale price. It is like for like property. AKA: if 123 Main St. sold for $100k in 2000 and the index was at 100 then, and now 123 Main St. sells for $100k it is back to the 2000 index of 100. It isn't the median or mean, it compares the price of the same property and what it sells for. It isn't based on "comps".
 
heh, that house on Willo is worth whatever the land is worth after you pay the bulldozer to knock down the 3 studio apartments, and all but one wall of the 'main house' (which must be only ~1200sf). the size of the lot did catch my eye, though, also.

and yes, what graph said.

if 124 main street sold for $194k in 1999 (cs=97), then $545k in 2006 (cs=273) and now sells for $350k (cs = 175)

here is an example: 578 Knowell sold for $490k on11/23/09. its previous sale was for $373k on 11.27.2.

so 490/373 = 130%, then lookup (for the LA metro on a chart from S&P) what the CS value for 11/02 is (140) and multiply, so CS=184
 
FreedomCM1, thanks so much for bringing your thread here -- it was one of the ones on IHB I was most going to miss the ability to get notified of updates to. (And now that I've figured out how to use ProBoards' clunky email notification feature, via "Manage Bookmarks", I'm all good.)


1. The forced lowercasing of usernames on Talk Irvine is kind of unfortunate. What I don't get is why people who apparently signed up earlier (e.g. USCTrojanCPA, Soylent Green Is People) were able to use uppercase letters and spaces.
 
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